Briefly Noted: Electoral Rumblings, Left And Right

On the Left, while it’s probably too early to predict the effect of the “uncommitted” movement on the 2024 presidential election, the possibilities are real and could prove significant. The ranks of the “uncommitted” are largely composed of three demographics, which overlap: the young, the progs, and minorities. The results of recent primaries in which “uncommitted” appeared on the ballot are sure to be ringing alarm bells in Dem circles. It’s probably safe to say that the shift to Trump among the “uncommitted” will probably not be any sort of game changer. However, the combination of stay at homes and split tickets (votes for a third party candidate) pose a major threat at the margins. Several states that featured high percentages of “uncommitted” votes had margins in 2016 and 2020 that make a flip possible.

Obviously Michigan is one of those states. On Super Tuesday and the day after the trend continued—I’m going with percentages:

Michigan (Feb. 27) 13%

North Carolina (March 5) 13%

Massachusetts (March 5) 9%

Colorado (March 5) 9%

Minnesota (March 5) 19%

Alabama (March 5) 6%

Tennessee (March 5) 8%

Nevada (Feb. 6) 6%

*Hawaii (March 6) 29%

Iowa (Jan. 15 to March 5) 4%

There are several aspects to sort out. First, the “uncommitted” movement is more or less an overnight phenomenon—this was heavily a grass roots appeal. In other words, while the primaries in the listed states are over, the sentiment could grow and persist as the targeted demographics continue to mull things over. Importantly, “uncommitted” is all about opposition to Zionist Jewish genocide of Palestinians.

Second, the largest percentages are probably driven by non-White voters of one sort or another, although the ranks of the young and prog demographics certainly contributed. I haven’t seen any systematic attempt to sort this out. We can safely say that the Middle Eastern (heavily Lebanese) vote in MI played a big role. In MN, not doubt the Somali demographic was a signficant part. I’m guessing, however that the Black vote also played a major role in at least several states. NC comes to mind as a state with only a tiny Middle Eastern population, yet it matched MI in terms of percentage. That could reflect young and prog votes in university cities in NC, but I suspect that the Black vote was also a factor.

The eye-popping results from Hawaii may tell us a lot about what’s driving this. Hawaii, of course, is exceptional in having a dominant Asian majority—albeit not monolithic. The only reasonable explanation for the vote in Hawaii is that it was driven heavily by Asian voters. I’m going to say it: The “uncommitted” movement is driven by repulsion at the idea of Zionist Jews forcing America—by dint of political influence spending—to participate in a genocidal slaughter. Part of the emotion behind that is probably associated with large percentages of the “uncommitted” being “non-White” and identifying Jews as White—despite Jewish protestations to the contrary. For many minorities, any distinction between Whites and Jews is, as far as they’re concerned, mostly a distinction without much of a difference. Hey, this is America, so it’s an American thing—this is the way people see things in America.

There’s another aspect to consider. I stated above that the movement may very well not be a “one and done” thing—a protest vote registered in the primaries without much effect on the general election. The Dem base, especially those that turn out in the primaries, probably follow alternative media far more closely than run of the mill Dems. They will be aware that the Zhou administration is largely simply trying to get away with gaslighting them. For example:

Biden Is Hiding Weapons Shipments To Israel & Ignores West Bank Settlements

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Weapons shipments that exceed a certain amount require notices to Congress. Biden’s solution is to make the shipments smaller and send hundreds more of them.

So, protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, calling for ceasefires won’t cut it with the “uncommitted” crowd. They will also be aware that they are up against a political Goliath—AIPAC, the Israeli government’s proxy in the US:

AIPAC uncorks $100 million war chest to sink progressive candidates

Building on a successful playbook from 2022, AIPAC and other aligned groups are picking their targets — many more of them this time.

…

This cycle, they are going even bigger. AIPAC is expected to spend $100 million across its political entities in 2024, taking aim at candidates they deem insufficiently supportive of Israel, according to three people with direct knowledge of the figure, who were granted anonymity to discuss private meetings.

Unapologetically single issue. It’s about genocide. Anything less than full throated cheerleading for killing Palestinians by all available means will be deemed “insufficiently supportive of Israel,” and dealt with accordingly.

But this is raising concerns, because of the over the top visibility of what’s going on—a proxy of a foreign government attempting not only to influence specific elections but even to reshape one of the two major parties according to its preferences. The JTA sees the problem:

AIPAC’s huge investment in primary campaigns is paying off — but at what price down the road?

The problem is, for Zionists it’s always existential. There’s never any room for nuance, for discussion, for compromise, for getting along. It’s always our way or we destroy you. And so the reservations expressed in the JTA article will have no impact on AIPAC’s actions, no matter the long terms consequences.

This Danny Davis video is worth your time. It’s impassioned—and comes from a supporter of Israel, but not of genocide. I’ve cued the video at the point that Davis flatly states that Netanyahu calls the shots—in Tel Aviv and also in DC. This is what more and more Americans are coming to realize:

AIPAC isn’t worried about the GOPers—they’re pretty much totally in AIPAC’s pocket. Nevertheless, there are interesting developments on the right, as well. Obviously, Trump’s dominance is one—if totally unsurprising—dynamic. Additionally, conservative turnout for local elections has also been strong. The biggest development has come in Texas. Governor Greg Abbott and AG Ken Paxton launched a jihad against RINOs, and the result was pretty much a bloodbath, as these things go.

AUSTIN, Texas — In a victory for Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, at least nine House Republicans appeared to have lost their primaries on Tuesday evening.

Another eight members, at least, were also forced into runoffs this May 28 — including House Speaker Dade Phelan who was the No. 1 target of the far right.

The two state leaders and other prominent Republicans, like Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and former president Donald Trump, endorsed challengers in dozens of races citing the incumbents’ disloyalty to the party.

The Tuesday night drubbing serves as a cautionary reminder that elected Republicans, regardless of their seniority and length of tenure, cross the party’s base at their peril. Challengers and their surrogates framed the Texas House as an institution that catered to liberals and thwarted conservative priorities.

In particular, Abbott vowed revenge on those House Republicans who helped kill his signature legislative priority to pass school vouchers and Paxton separately targeted Republicans who voted to impeach him last summer.

As many challengers attempted to outflank incumbents on the right, the result signals that the House will likely continue to embrace more conservative policies. It will also become more receptive to school vouchers.

“Republican primary voters have once again sent an unmistakable message that parents deserve the freedom to choose the best education pathway for their child,” Abbott said in a statement Tuesday evening. “We will continue to help true conservative candidates on the ballot who stand with the majority of their constituents in supporting education freedom for every Texas family.”

Other election results elsewhere, in NC for example, signalled that education issues will be a priority for conservative voters in the Fall.