Briefly Noted: Continuation Of National Emergency?

Perhaps there will be more commentary on this today, but CTH is reporting without link that Zhou is extending the Covid national emergency for another year, beginning March 1, 2022.

Sundance states:

Both the House and Senate will now have to schedule a vote to support the extension.

This appears to be a clearly erroneous reading of the statute alertly. Let’s take a look at it—50 U.S. Code § 1622 - National emergencies:

Starting at the back end of the statute, the law clearly states that the president can simply transmit to Congress a “notice” stating that the emergency will continue after its “anniversary” date. That has been done, and so the national emergency will continue, unless joint Congressional action is taken:

(d) Automatic termination of national emergency; continuation notice from President to Congress; publication in Federal Register

Any national emergency declared by the President in accordance with this subchapter, and not otherwise previously terminated, shall terminate on the anniversary of the declaration of that emergency if, within the ninety-day period prior to each anniversary date, the President does not publish in the Federal Register and transmit to the Congress a notice stating that such emergency is to continue in effect after such anniversary.

Thus, from the side of the Executive, a national emergency can be terminated:

1. by the President allowing the national emergency to lapse by failing to continue it; or, as we will see,

2. by the President issuing a proclamation of termination.

As we’ve seen, exactly the opposite has just occurred—Zhou has notified Congress that the national emergency will continue.

The other way in which a national emergency may be terminated is through action by Congress to issue a joint resolution of termination.

(a) Termination methods

Any national emergency declared by the President in accordance with this subchapter shall terminate if—

(1) there is enacted into law a joint resolution terminating the emergency; or

(2) the President issues a proclamation terminating the emergency.

There is a further provision:

(b)Termination review of national emergencies by Congress

Not later than six months after a national emergency is declared, and not later than the end of each six-month period thereafter that such emergency continues, each House of Congress shall meet to consider a vote on a joint resolution to determine whether that emergency shall be terminated.

The clear import of this is NOT that continuation requires authorization from Congress but that every six months each House of Congress must “consider” whether to hold a vote on a joint resolution considering termination. I read that to mean that no vote at all need be held.

My assumption for now is that the “national emergency” will continue because there will be no united action by Congress.

What’s interesting is to consider what the Zhou regime thinks they’ll gain from this. The likelihood of successfully pulling off a Castreau seems remote—even in a nation as submissive as Canada, the success of that move is not a foregone conclusion. I doubt that it would work in the US.

Further, this continuation, if it actually has any effect, is likely to prove wildly unpopular, as even Blue states are terminating most of their Covid regimes:

Biden's step to extend the emergency comes even as a slew of local leaders in the United States are dialing back pandemic restrictions as the Omicron wave ebbs.

The governors of New York and Massachusetts announced last week that they would end certain mask mandates in their states, following similar moves by New Jersey, California, Connecticut, Delaware and Oregon.

As far as I can see this continuation of the national emergency will largely serve to remind voters who’s responsible for what’s making so many of them angry. At this point only hardcore Dems see Covid as a major concern. The Congressional GOP is probably counting on that and so will not push for a resolution, calculating that most states will dismantle the Covid regime themselves and those that don’t will simply anger their voters.