Briefly Noted: Big Picture On The War--Special Note Re Elon Musk

Since mid-September we’ve been in a weeks long inflection point in the war. The overall dynamics haven’t changed—this is a war that Ukraine can’t win, but that Russia can win and is determined to do so. It’s truly existential for Russia. For now, the US Neocon/Davos alliance remains determined to inflict regime change on Russia, but there are growing signs that reality is beginning to intrude. The pipeline sabotage and suicidal Ukrainian “counteroffensives” may be signs that the collective West is ready to cut its losses, by inflicting as much damage on Russia as it can in the short term, but at the same time enforcing a decoupling of Europe from Russia. Reality may have something to say about that, too, as weather gets its say.

Regarding the war in the big picture, a decent overview of why Ukraine simply can’t win can be obtained from Brian Berletic’s latest video at New Atlas:

Ukraine's Offensives vs. Russian Mobilization

Ukrainian offensives are making headlines and being leveraged politically and psychologically. In reality, Ukraine is paying a price for these offensives it cannot recover from.

Meanwhile Russia is mobilizing 300,000 men and equipment to move against Ukrainian forces just as they fully over-extend themselves and as Western inventories to re-supply Ukraine dry up.

If you follow the link there’s a list of references with links for the sources that Brian consulted for the video. The video is about 30 minutes long.

At Larry Johnson’s blog there’s a post with a similar viewpoint by Helmholtz Smith:

PREMONITIONS

I see a lot of things going on in the background. I list them here.

What does Smith see?

Consider some of these. DC has opened a communications link with Moscow … just as it’s loudly proclaiming that negotiations with Putin are impossible. Everyone knows that negotiations with Putin are eminently possible. The nuclear hysteria ploy hasn’t really worked, so one suspects there may actually be negotiation feelers going out. Blinken has even had to acknowledge that the nuclear hysteria ginned up by America was just gaslighting. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s demand for fast track NATO membership was summarily slapped aside. All of this suggests that commitment to the Neocon/Davos agenda in the West—if there ever truly was much—is fading fast.

Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. 

Obviously the weariness is strongly pushed by growing economic concerns and even hardships—more so in Europe than in the US, but we’re seeing it here, as well.

But that’s not all. Smith goes on to list other factors that, while not in the public view, are becoming progressively more evident.

The West is running out of weapons to send to Ukraine, and the weapons that are being sent are increasingly obsolete—leading to massively disproportionate Ukrainian casualties. For example, I saw a picture of a destroyed Ukrainian personnel carrier in the Kherson sector. It was an American M113, a Vietnam vintage (1962) piece of equipment. It may as well have been a standard panel van for all the protection it would provide against modern Russian weaponry. Nothing, really, but a means of transport. Meanwhile, Russia is mobilizing and sending trainload after long trainload of equipment to staging areas. The suspicion is that the 300k reservists that were called up are mostly to man rear areas and to free up more combat ready forces who will take delivery of the new equipment.

Russia is also winning the diplomatic war. The US has made no headway in peeling off cooperators from Russia’s side. If anything, the opposite is the case.

The West’s “mojo” isn’t working. Scholtz received little support from his Gulf visit and neither did Biden from Saudi Arabia. China, India and Brazil abstained on the American UNSC motion to censure Russia’s absorption of the four regions. “90% of the world” isn’t following the lead of the so-called “international community”. Many countries see the world changing and have picked their side or are waiting to see how it plays out (Egypt and Saudi Arabia are feeling out the SCO, for example).

In conclusion, Smith asks: Premonitions of what? And his answer—with a clear view of massive Russian offensives in the offing—seems to be a premonition of negotiations:

In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.

One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. … I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.

This is where Elon Musk comes in. Musk may not be a trained military strategist, but you can bet that he has access to very good information. His recent tweets—in which he basically suggests, Hey, why not go back to the Minsk accords—has heads exploding throughout the collective West. First I’ll paste in the cartoon that Musk tweeted yesterday—and which I screwed up when I pasted it in to the penultimate post:

But there’s more, and Zerohedge has a post that summarizes Musk’s expressed views and the reactions he’s getting:

All Hell Breaks Loose After Musk Posts "Russia-Ukraine Peace" Twitter Poll

To be honest, I’m more interested in Musk’s views because he’s likely to be expressing a dissident view based on reliable information. Here are some of those recent Musk tweets. First, after posting his version of the Minsk Accords …

Elon Musk @elonmusk

This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then

Then, how about this for waving a red flag in front of the collective Bull(sh*t) of the West?

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Let’s try this then: the will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine

Woops!

And, finally, suggesting that he’s been following similar sources to those that realistic strategists have also been consulting:

Of course, this is simply what he’s putting forward for public consumption. The reality behind his tweets may be far more dire than he openly expresses. Could it be that he’s pretty confident of where this is heading and wants to get out front, to claim credit of a sort?