Brief War Update: Kursk, Possible Other Developments
Over the past week we’ve been hearing that the US is ending intel sharing with Ukraine—as well as with the Five Eyes countries, at least with regard to Ukraine related intel. The US has also terminated commercial provision of satellite based information to Ukraine. Now it looks like the massive US facility in Rzeszów, Poland, is being rolled up—or, at a minimum, significantly scaled back. This is a major development, showing that Trump 2.0 is serious about ending the war on Russia.
dana @dana916
Poles are observing interesting changes
The Americans dismantled a transport platform of several hectares at the Rzeszow airbase, which was installed there back in 2021 to accommodate military cargo arriving in Poland and then transporting it to Ukraine.
Even the paving slabs were dismantled and taken away by American specialists. There were no transport flights to Rzeszow after Trump's decision to cancel aid to Ukraine. It's not known how things are with the railway and sea routes, but everything by air has been suspended.
The dismantling of additional infrastructure at a key logistics hub in Poland signals a real change in the US administration's approach, and Ukraine is under enormous pressure.
Archangel of Spetsnaz
3:35 PM · Mar 8, 2025
Over the last several days we’ve been hearing about the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian pocket in the Kursk area. It now appears to be happening in earnest. Reports are that 10K Ukrainian troops are trapped and looking for ways out.
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - -- @GeromanAT
rout
Kursk Region
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have completely lost control and management of their troops. The chaotic movement in columns and accumulation of equipment in front of the destroyed bridges, right under our drones, continues.
The panic has spread to the garrison in Sudzha. There is constant swearing between units on the air. Syrsky's headquarters still have not set any clear combat missions for the blocked group.
Disorder and lack of coordination.
Condottiero
Burnt out Ukrainian column in Sudzha.
Part of the Russian encirclement of Kursk involved an incursion into Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast
There are now reports that that incursion could develop into an actual offensive. That, in turn, coupled with the sudden halt to US support, could further develop into encircling moves toward the SE.
Reports indicate that Russian forces are preparing to extend their offensive into Sumy Oblast following the retreat of Ukrainian forces from Kursk.
This final item is of interest regarding Russian intentions toward the Black Sea coast and lower Dnieper region, and especially the Odessa region. We have seen reports of massive Russian buildups in that area, coupled with probing attacks. The video at the link makes this training look like pretty small scale stuff. My guess is that if this happens it could be preceded by fair sized airborne assaults. The deal with attacking east to west across the Dnieper is that, while the east side is marshy, the west side has high, steep banks until you get to the lower reaches.
''Russian Marines are preparing to land on the Black Sea coast and on the high enemy bank of the Dnieper. The training is being conducted by the 61st Marine Brigade (Dnieper group). Perhaps this is one of the options for activating the front in the coming spring, or in the summer campaign.''
However, if the Russians can find an opening caused by the Ukrainian need to shift forces to other areas, they could make a crossing in force. Something to keep an eye on.
If a golden rule of military strategy is never attack Russia, the second might be never attack Kursk. Like the 1943 caper, the Russians have absorbed the punishment, let the enemy do their worst, and are now counter-attacking. Great news too about the US pullback in Poland. Maybe the Euroweenies will now understand what it means to go it alone against Russia.
In addition to the airbase in Poland being "rolled up," Gilbert Doctorow notes the following in a piece of his today:
"Defense Secretary Hegseth indicated that more than 30,000 troops will be withdrawn from Germany and reassigned to Hungary, another clear indication that those European countries which remain defiant will be punished by the Americans without delay and without hesitation."
Doctorow's entire piece is interesting as a potential explanation for Trump's apparently schizophrenic and contradictory public statements:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/03/09/trumps-supposedly-one-sided-support-for-russia-over-ukraine/