Brief Update: Niger, Ukraine

Yesterday we briefly noted that Niger, which had previously expelled the French military presence, has also now told the US to withdraw its forces—including from its big Base 201. That base, while largely used for drones, is capable of handling the largest planes and has been a key to supporting the NATO attempt to exercise control over the mineral rich Sahel region of Africa (the second map shows Niger, strategically located in the center of the Sahel and northern Africa):

Newsmax has a nice summary of the situation, although it requires a bit of reading between the lines:

US Military Operations Across the Sahel Are at Risk After Niger Ends Cooperation

The title itself clearly points to the great importance that the American Empire placed on Base 201.

The United States scrambled on Sunday to assess the future of its counterterrorism operations in the Sahel after Niger's junta said it was ending its years long military cooperation with Washington following a visit by top U.S. officials.

The U.S. military has hundreds of troops stationed at a major airbase in northern Niger that deploys flights over the vast Sahel region — south of the Sahara Desert — where jihadi groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group operate.

Top U.S. envoy Molly Phee returned to the capital, Niamey, this week to meet with senior government officials, accompanied by Marine Gen. Michael Langley, head of the U.S. military’s African Command. She had previously visited in December, while acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland traveled to the country in August.

What’s left unsaid, of course, is that the US itself—by overthrowing the Libyan government of Col. Gaddafi—itself enabled the vast flow of weapons to the Sahel, which the Libyan government had prevented. Thanks go to Hillary for the ensuing and continuing chaos. One wonders whether that ensuing chaos served US interests by providing the rationale for inserting NATO forces into the region. Perhaps that had something to do with regional governments turning to Russia for help against Islamic insurgencies. That in turn alarmed the Neocons.

The State Department said Sunday in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that talks were frank and that it was in touch with the junta. It wasn’t clear whether the U.S. has any leeway left to negotiate a deal to stay in the country.

Niger had been seen as one of the last nations in the restive region that Western nations could partner with to beat back growing jihadi insurgencies. The U.S. and France had more than 2,500 military personnel in the region until recently, and together with other European countries had invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training.

…

It's unclear what prompted the junta's decision to suspend military ties. On Saturday, the junta’s spokesperson, Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, said U.S. flights over Niger’s territory in recent weeks were illegal. Meanwhile, Insa Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger’s military rulers with their communications, criticized U.S. efforts to force the junta to pick between strategic partners.

“The American bases and civilian personnel cannot stay on Nigerien soil any longer,” he told The Associated Press.

After her trip in December, Phee, the top U.S. envoy, told reporters she had “good discussions” with junta leaders and called on them to set a timeline for elections in return for restoring military and aid ties. But she also said the U.S. had warned Niamey against forging closer ties with Russia.

It sounds like Niger resented the US attempting to dictate Niger’s foreign relations. With us or against us was the choice the US presented, and Niger made its decision—leaving the US “scrambling” without any great alternatives.

Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which have experienced two coups each since 2020, have turned to Moscow for security support. After the coup in Niger, the military also turned to the Russian mercenary group Wagner for help.

Cameron Hudson, who served with the Central Intelligence Agency and State Department in Africa, said the incident shows the diminution of U.S. leverage in the region and that Niger was angered by Washington’s attempt to pressure the junta to steer clear of Russia. “This is ironic since one mantra of the Biden Administration has been that Africans are free to choose their partners," he said.

Turning to Ukraine, there was a lot of buzz last week about the major Russian missile strike on Odessa. It has now become clear what the buzz was all about:

Russian Hypersonic Iskander Missile Attack in Odessa Targets Mercenary Troop Gathering

My understanding of “mercenary” is that Russia was striking a gathering of NATO personnel who were providing technical support for Ukrainian missile and drone strikes in the Black Sea and Crimea area. The results were dramatic, since such highly trained personnel are not easily replaced:

According to Russian sources, a large group of Western mercenaries was destroyed in a hypersonic Iskander missile attack on the Mriya sanatorium, in Odessa.

It is estimated that about 100 mercenaries were killed in the attack, with more than 100 wounded.

The linked article also quotes Simplicius with regard to the strategic importance of Odessa. Simplicius makes clear why NATO thinks it can’t allow Russia to take control of Odessa. The flip side of that is that it also makes clear exactly why Russia will take control of Odessa. Putin has basically said so:

But why is Odessa now in such preeminent spot in the war?

Simplicius the Thinker wrote:

“NATO cannot let Russia capture Odessa for a multitude of reasons.

1. NATO was building important naval bases there in order to fully neutralize Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the future

2. It would allow Russia to totally landlock Ukraine, thus ruining NATO’s last remaining puppet-state’s chances of being a military thorn in Russia’s side

3. The above alone would allow Russia to dominate global wheat markets as Ukraine would have little ways to export its grain

4. It would allow Russia to create an unbroken land corridor to Transnistria which would catalyze into an even greater ‘domino-effect’ collapse of NATO destabilization plans, allowing Russia to totally solve the PMR issue and create a fortress in the region

In short, it’s absolutely apocalyptic for NATO to lose Odessa.”

By the same token, taking Odessa is an existential imperative for Russia. I’m betting on Russia.