I’ll be using tweets to illustrate what’s going on. Let’s start with Russia war aims—click to enlarge:
Comments: I never thought that Russia’s preferred endgame was “Split in half.” As I’ve often stated, I assumed it was something like “Landlocked”. However, looking at recent maps and sitreps, in which Russia appears to be holding to the oblast borders of Kherson and Zaporozhye in the South, it seems at least conceivable that “Novorossiya” may be the actual goal. However, much remains to be seen before we know how things will develop. This map from what I take to be a pro-Ukraine tweeter illustrates my point. Sim Tack says “Ukraine … continues to advance on Kherson” but, in fact, Russia appears to be in a passive defensive posture there—simply maintaining the Kherson oblast borders and making no moves to advance.
This may also be meaningful:
In the meantime, expanding on the above, in the East where the real action is, the Russians appear to be making steady progress in closing the cauldron near the Line of Contact bordering the Donbas:
In the spirit of Stalin, which will go down poorly when aired in Russia:
My Polish got me far enough to confirm that he does talk about tying the legs.
Now, specifically regarding the Mariupol situation. We’ve been hearing for several weeks—not less than two weeks—that NATO “advisers” are trapped in the Azovstal plant. We also keep hearing that a minimum of two attempts to exfiltrate these VIPs via helicopters (with Ukrainian markings) have failed. Continuing appeals to the Russian government to allow these sensitive VIPs out have apparently fallen on deaf ears, so far. Notably the US military is keeping its mouth tightly shut about all this, as well as about the Bucha propaganda. Nevertheless, this tweet is worth considering. Note the relatively pristine state of this area:
As a wholly imbecilic amateur, I would think Novorossija would be the minimum acceptable to the Russians, and landlocked would be the preferred. Landlocked would be the smart play and would at least justify the losses they will have taken.
Yep I hear there are US, UK, and probably French advisors aligned with the Azover's. Believed to be hostages now. How about that.