Brief Ukraine Update 5/13/24
The big news of the day is summarized in this article at Zerohedge:
Ukraine Admits Frontlines In Kharkiv Are Collapsing
For the first time since Russia launched its major cross-border offensive into Ukraine's Kharkiv region (it began last Friday), Ukraine's government has acknowledged that Moscow forces have made rapid gains.
Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the military administration of the Kharkov Region, has said Russia is pushing past the frontline. "Essentially, the frontline is expanding as the enemy is advancing from multiple positions," he admitted during an interview with Sky News.
There’s plenty more at the link, but the two interesting points are these:
Contrary to what was assumed, the Ukrainians never built the concrete fortifications that have proven so difficult to overcome—those were features of the Donbass defensive lines. The Russians are systematically breaking these concrete fortifications now with FAB bombs, but it’s still slow going.
The Russian forces advancing from the north in the Kharkov region are actually light troops rather than assault troops with heavy weaponry. Videos show them advancing across open fields, thanks to the lack of Ukrainian fortifications. Ukrainian forces have often simply turned and fled.
All this in spite of the fact that the Russian offensive was entirely predictable. The Ukrainians blame the lack of fortifications on the delay in aid from DC. However, there have long been rumors that the previous aid was systematically diverted to the rulers of Europe’s most corrupt nation on a large scale.
Following up on our previous update, let’s emphasize what’s happening.
First, and briefly, Danny Davis today points out that many commentators continue to maintain that Russia has substantial forces near Sumy, northwest of Kharkov, which have not yet been committed. My take on this is that Russia is waiting for Ukrainian reinforcements for Kharkov (see below) are fully committed and fixed in place before opening a Sumy front. These two tweets ably explain this:
Kharkov
It’s never been a secret that this would be the next Russian move. For anyone with eyes to see, it has also never been a secret that Ukraine would be unprepared to deal with this Russian strategy. Playing whackamole against the far superior Russian forces while lacking both men and munitions is a losing strategy. At this rate it’s hard to see this situation holding for much longer—certainly not until November. The massive defeat for NATO arms and strategy in Ukraine will be clear to American voters.
I always like it when, two or so years afterwards, the "experts" realise what we schlubs already knew.
Kharkov was my first encounter with the corruption of newly-independent Ukraine some 30+ years ago. Yanked from a train from St. Petersburg on which I was traveling with Russian friends to their dacha down near Yalta, I was forced to overnight in Kharkov (the first cross-border city) at a fleabag hotel (in a semi-custodial arrangement--they had my passport) for the privilege of paying $100 cash for a $5 (tops!) room, only to receive back the same address-registration stamps I'd obtained in St. Petersburg before I left. Not a fan...zero stars ;-)