Brief Ukraine Update

Various topics

I’ll be using tweets to illustrate what’s going on. Let’s start with Russia war aims—click to enlarge:

Pepe Escobar @RealPepeEscobar

Realistic.

Comments: I never thought that Russia’s preferred endgame was “Split in half.” As I’ve often stated, I assumed it was something like “Landlocked”. However, looking at recent maps and sitreps, in which Russia appears to be holding to the oblast borders of Kherson and Zaporozhye in the South, it seems at least conceivable that “Novorossiya” may be the actual goal. However, much remains to be seen before we know how things will develop. This map from what I take to be a pro-Ukraine tweeter illustrates my point. Sim Tack says “Ukraine … continues to advance on Kherson” but, in fact, Russia appears to be in a passive defensive posture there—simply maintaining the Kherson oblast borders and making no moves to advance.

Sim Tack @SimTack

Combat over the remainining #Ukraine-controlled areas of Donbas is intensifying as #Russia tries to extend its breakthrough at Izyum. Meanwhile, Ukraine has more or less regained control over the North and continues to advance on Kherson. Mapping with @detresfa_ and @COUPSURE

This may also be meaningful:

Levi @Levi_godman

In the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, they begin to trade in rubles, said Deputy Prime Minister of Crimea Muradov

In the meantime, expanding on the above, in the East where the real action is, the Russians appear to be making steady progress in closing the cauldron near the Line of Contact bordering the Donbas:

Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast

Important Ukrainian defensive positions in Lugansk oblast have been overrun, sources from both sides report. The battle was, as it has been described to me, "one and a half months of WW1 fuckery"

In the spirit of Stalin, which will go down poorly when aired in Russia:

Levi @Levi_godman

For the record: The head of the „Georgian Legion" Mamuka Mamulashvili answers a question about a video with Russian servicemen whose throat was cut and then shot in the back of the head: "Russian occupiers, and Kadyrovites,will not be taken prisoner“

Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast

Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the "Georgian National Legion" in Ukraine: "Yes, we tie their hands and feet sometimes. I speak for the Georgian Legion, we will never take Russian soldiers prisoner. Not a single one of them will be taken prisoner."

My Polish got me far enough to confirm that he does talk about tying the legs.

Now, specifically regarding the Mariupol situation. We’ve been hearing for several weeks—not less than two weeks—that NATO “advisers” are trapped in the Azovstal plant. We also keep hearing that a minimum of two attempts to exfiltrate these VIPs via helicopters (with Ukrainian markings) have failed. Continuing appeals to the Russian government to allow these sensitive VIPs out have apparently fallen on deaf ears, so far. Notably the US military is keeping its mouth tightly shut about all this, as well as about the Bucha propaganda. Nevertheless, this tweet is worth considering. Note the relatively pristine state of this area:

Pepe Escobar @RealPepeEscobar

Mariupol port - now. No destruction - yet. That's where 3,000-or-so Azov neo-Nazis are - along with selected NATO honchos. Will be holed up in houses close to the port - and shooting/shelling everywhere. This is a NATO-organized special op. h/t WarGonzo