Brief Ukraine Escalation Update
At least a week ago I saw a pro-Ukro-Nazi tweet claiming a huge increase in air transport traffic at the Rzeszów airport, Rzeszów being the main supply hub (in SE Poland) for the NATO war effort against Russia. There was also a bit of talk about large scale land movement from Rotterdam across Europe toward the Rzeszów hub. The idea was that Ukraine was planning a new offensive. That was followed by reports of large scale Russian preemptive strikes on Ukrainian military concentrations that were developing in the Sumy to Kursk border regions. That offensive appears to have kicked off in the last 24 hours, but before we provide what’s known so far, there was another significant escalation.
During the past day or two it appears that the US launched another ATACMS strike at the Russian city of Belgorod (about 25 miles north of the Ukraine border), the US strike coming from Ukrainian territory. Russia is claiming that all 8 ATACMS missiles were shot down:
Moscow vows retaliation for Ukraine strikes with US-made missiles
The Kremlin has previously responded to a similar strike by firing a new kind of hypersonic missile.
Moscow threatened to retaliate after claiming to have downed eight U.S.-manufactured missiles fired from Ukraine toward Russia's southwestern Belgorod region.
"These actions by the Kyiv regime, which is supported by Western curators, will be met with retaliation," the Russian defense ministry said in a statement on Telegram Saturday, without specifying what countermeasures it intended to take. Ukraine has not commented on the strike.
The Kremlin views the use of these long-range ATACMS missiles — which are supplied to Kyiv by the United States and can reach targets up to 300 kilometres away — to carry out strikes deep inside Russian territory as a significant escalation in the war.
You can listen to a ~5 minute discussion of this by Glenn Diesen by following the link to this tweet:
Russia attacked by 8 ATACMS missiles in strategic strike - Professor Glenn Diesen on WION https://rumble.com/v666n9g-russia-attacked-by-8-atacms-missiles-in-strategic-strike-professor-glenn-di.html…
Basically, Diesen argues that this latest US attack on Russia is an attempt to “escalate things out of control” to prevent Trump from coming to some settlement with Russia. That sounds reasonable to me. My guess is that the defeat of the attack will be enough for Russia—they will retaliate in a major way at targets within Ukraine, but will not escalate to attacks on NATO countries. No doubt we’ll find out soon.
Now, regarding the Ukrainian offensive …
Once again this looks like a politically motivated move, doomed to failure, rather than a militarily sound decision. Presumably there is some idea that this will somehow commit Trump to continuing with support. Here’s what’s being reported—much of it sourced from Ukrainian channels:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT
The offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction
There was information back in November-December that the Ukrainian Armed Forces might attempt an offensive on the eve of Trump’s inauguration.
The goal is obvious and, for the most part, it is political, not military: to show the US that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can achieve success on the battlefield, and therefore the thesis that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if it continues is incorrect. And therefore it is necessary to continue to support Kiev and not make concessions to Russia.
Trump's future special envoy Keith Kellogg is scheduled to arrive in Ukraine in a few days. Therefore, it is possible that the activation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also connected with this visit.
The offensive itself was clearly not a surprise for the Russian Armed Forces – Russian military publics had been writing about its preparations for the past few weeks, linking it to the intensification of Russian strikes on the Sumy region, where Ukrainian reserves were approaching.
True, at the same time, various directions of attack were named. Both in Kursk region, and in Belgorod and Bryansk.
So far, there are reports of increased attacks from Sudzha on Bolshoe Soldatskoe and the village of Berdyn.
This is the direction along the main route from Sudzha to Kursk. This is also the direction to the city of Kurchatov, where the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is located (it was considered one of the main targets of the August offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces).
North of the road to Bolshoye Soldatskoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have occupied most of the village of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Z-channels write (this is not far from Sudzha, not long ago this village was taken under control by Russian troops).
It is reported that the Ukrainian military is actively using electronic warfare to suppress the operation of drones (except those using fiber optics).
Some Russian publics write that the Ukrainian attack towards Berdyn has been stopped at its approaches. Others write that events are still developing and fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Berdyn.
There are also reports that on the western flank of the Ukrainian bridgehead, attacks by small forces have intensified on Darino (near the border of Sumy Oblast) and in the direction of Novoivanivka, which was recently lost by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as in the direction of the border town of Tetkino.
However, among Russian publics [i.e., unofficial sources, TG channels, etc.] there is a widespread opinion that all these strikes are a diversionary maneuver and the main offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be in a completely different place and even in a different region - for example, in Bryansk or Belgorod. Although, by the way, the direction to Bolshoy Soldatskoye is also important, since the route to both Kursk and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is separated from it.
It is interesting that, unlike the summer offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, when the Ukrainian authorities kept silent for a long time, now they confirmed the fact of the offensive almost immediately - in particular, the head of the President's Office Yermak wrote about it. However, it is still unclear what this means - an attempt to mislead the enemy by giving more importance to the diversionary attack. Or simply an attempt to raise morale in society by hinting at successes at the front.
By the way, Russia has not officially commented on anything yet. At the same time, one of the key Russian military leaders, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Yunus Bek-Yevkurov, arrived in Kursk, as Acting Governor Khinshtein reported this morning, publishing a photo with him.
By the way, as reported by Russian Telegram channels, the Russian army has also launched an offensive in the Kursk region. In particular, Russian units are attacking in the area of Russkoye Porechny (near Cherkasskoye Porechny) and Malaya Loknya. And Ukrainian sources report an attack by the Russian army from the Kursk region in the direction of the Ukrainian border.
It is too early to draw any conclusions.
At the same time, it is obvious that to achieve even the political goals of the offensive (not to mention the military goals), its result must be much greater than the capture of several more Kursk villages. For example, it could be an advance right up to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. But whether Ukraine has the strength for such a deep breakthrough is still unknown.
A separate question is how the transfer of Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves for an offensive on Russian territory will affect other sections of the front. Especially where the Russian Armed Forces are currently actively attacking.
[Ukrainian] Military analytics  TG
0:04 / 0:09
6:53 AM · Jan 5, 2025
This map shows the areas of activity along the northeastern Ukraine border:
- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT
now let's see how many North Korean Brigades will be wiped out this time in Kursk...
what is dead can never die...
Now two Russian sources:
MD @distant_earth83
January 5, 2025
Kursk Region, Russia
Footage is circulating on the channels [TG] showing how Kiev Forces are being hammered and destroyed.
It’s important to distinguish between the two areas of action:
•Bolshesoldatsky District: Group Aida (Special Forces “Akhmat” of the Russian Ministry of Defense) is leading the offensive.
•Korenovsky District: The 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet has turned it into a safari.
Source: iamsniper, rustroyka1945, romanov_92
Last edited
7:49 AM · Jan 5, 2025
AID, Special Forces Akhmat: "The entire column was destroyed. We are waiting for the second round." "Don't take them prisoner! We'll bury them later."
And a Ukrainian source:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - -- @GeromanAT
"Russian TG channels are massively publishing the movement of our columns in the Kursk region, as well as the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment. The photo shows how actively the enemy uses aviation against the Ukrainian army, we have no cover and are forced to make our way through enemy mines/rockets/bombs." Rezident
TG
0:09
The idea that the outgoing administration would deliberately attempt to create a situation in Ukraine to tie the new President’s hands is just despicable!! This has nothing to do with the best interests of the country or what is conducive to ending the human slaughter that this enterprise represents, it’s nothing but a bunch of political hacks who believe themselves to be above reproach and indulging in a childish pissing contest. This is what passes for statesmanship and diplomacy in DC?
I keep asking myself, “ who the hell is in charge”?
OT, but close enough to consider relevant, am I the only one who saw the recent awards given to Hillary Clinton and George Soros as anything less than a fully extended middle finger to us peasants who voted for Trump? But at least all of the republicans in DC expressed their collective outrage at this travesty! Oh, wait, they were too busy trying to vote themselves a pay raise to be bothered.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1875974603480416657.html
From Joshua Steinman, who spent four years at NSC under President Trump