Brief Middle East Update 11/4/24

During the past week there have been repeated statements from Iran indicating its intention to retaliate for the Israeli attack on Iran that killed several Iranians. During that period the US has also been shifting multiple B-52H nuclear capable bombers to Al Udeid airbase in Qatar—the number could be up to 6, today (below). In addition to being nuclear capable, these planes can carry large amounts of other ordnance. The point is, the B-52H is strictly an offensive platform, an offensive threat—not a defensive platform. Meanwhile, the USS Abe is keeping its distance from both Iran and Yemen, out in the Arabian Sea. Al Udeid can’t shift its position.

Yesterday, there was this:

US Warns Tehran It Will Not Restrain Israel If Iran Retaliates

Iran has kept up its saber-rattling in the wake of last week's Israeli aerial attack, which itself was the much anticipated response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack of October 1st. Washington is now warning Tehran that it "won't be able to hold Israel back" if the Islamic Republic retaliates, US and Israeli officials told Axios Saturday.

"We told the Iranians: We won't be able to hold Israel back, and we won't be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one," the US official said.

The message was reportedly passed to Iranian officials via Swiss intermediaries, the Axios report details, which is a rare public disclosure.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the same day warned of "tooth-breaking" response for Israel's actions. Recent international reports have also suggested Iran-linked paramilitaries in Iraq could be preparing a new attack on Israel.

The Iranian Supreme Leader has also said, "We will do whatever is necessary in confronting arrogance, whether in terms of military and armament or politically. The Iranian people and officials will never hesitate in facing global arrogance and the criminal apparatus ruling the world order."

…

Today we see these reports:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint 

 A third pair of B-52H Nuclear-capable strategic bombers from Minot AFB are en route to Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar 

"LONE31" & "LONE32" will be the 5th & 6th B-52 deployed to Qatar. (Archive image)

MenchOsint @MenchOsint 

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman, in response to a question about the B-52 deployment:

“We have always believed that the presence of America in the region is a destabilising presence ... it will not deter Iran's resolve to defend itself”

And:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

Russian Air Force Antonov An-148 (RA-61723) from Moscow landing in Tehran, Iran (transports military officials)

Yesterday, we speculated—and this was pure speculation—that the Trump campaign may have signaled (through statements by JDVance) to Iran that, if Iran held off, some solution could be worked out. Despite the massive shifting of US military hardware to the region, it seems very clear that the US military itself is desperate to avoid a war. For example:

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

Ret General Mark Milley recognises the world is multipolar & it has three poles: The US, China & Russia

3:23 AM · Nov 1, 2024

This statement implies that the Pentagon, at any rate, recognizes that China and Russia have interests that the US must respect if it wants to avoid escalation to nuclear war.

We shall see.