Brief Middle East Sitrep, Morning 11/11/23
This tweet from Simplicius the Thinker will set the tone:
According to Amos Yadlin, the ex-chief of Israel's Military Intelligence, Hamas has proven to be more formidable than initially anticipated. Assertions suggesting that Hamas is experiencing a decline in strength are not grounded in reality.
I highly recommend Simplicius’ full sitrep today, SITREP 11/10/23: Israeli Economy Buckles, Russia Breaks Through in Avdeevka. Here I’ve cherry picked some highlights.
Situation in Gaza--the IDF continues to tiptoe around the outskirts of Gaza City itself, despite vast, even exponential, advantages in manpower, equipment, ISR technology, and US financial support. All this firepower is good for little more than war crimes, since Hamas is too far underground to be affected.
Simplicius ridicules the excuse that the IDF has to proceed cautiously because of Hamas' tunnels. That's perfectly true, but has also been true each time the Russians have advanced into one of Ukraine's fortified cities:
“Oh but they’ve got underground tunnels! That’s why IDF is having problems!” And what do you think Russia is up against in Avdeevka? Except the underground tunnels there are funded by $200B from NATO, and receive daily shipments from the most powerful alliance in history. While Hamas’s tunnels are lucky to have some stagnant water and stale bread.
In the meantime, Israel's economy is buckling:
They’re bleeding over $600M per week—6% of GDP—from a combination of war costs, lost tourist revenues, as well as a lot of agricultural operations reportedly completely shutting down as settlers and workers flee particularly the north near Lebanon.
Bloomberg reports:
Israel's economy is at a steep peak. The mobilization of 360k reservists took 8-10% of the workforce. Incomes fell by 1/3, construction projects rose. Tourist flow has almost stopped. Meanwhile, spending on the army increases. Economy is predicted to drop by 11% this quarter.
All of which leads to the question: How long can Israel continue this go-slow approach? The longer it goes on ...
The greater the shock to the economy, the larger the mounting casualties, the greater the danger that the Muslim countries actually begin taking economic steps against Israel and the West.
The greater the Arab and Muslim worlds are inflamed against the US. CNN is reporting that US diplomats are saying the US will lose a "generation of Arab support" in the Middle East, due to its complicity in Israeli war crimes.
Who wins from the go-slow strategy? Is the long game on the side of Iran, Hezbollah, and other countries in the region? Yesterday a major pow-wow was held in Riyadh, featuring Syria's Assad, Iran’s Raisi, and the Emir of Qatar--all traveling to meet, talk, and coordinate with the Saudis. This is unprecedented. Syria and Iran were, until this year, sworn enemies of the Saudis, and Qatar was a bitter rival and thorn in the side for the Saudis. Consider also: The US is in open war in Syria, while looting the country; the US is also in continual conflict with Iran, and is clearly leery of that conflict intensifying. Those two countries are meeting with two putative “allies”, while our top emissaries—dispatched from the Imperial City on the Potomac itself—are repeatedly snubbed.
This event in Riyadh, among others, confirms what US diplomats are cabling back to DC.
Everywhere the Neocons go, every proxy supported, turns into another quagmire. And yet they still think they can pivot against China? None of this will end well.
Quoting from CNN:
American diplomats conveyed a “sharp warning” to the Biden administration about “growing rage against the United States in the Arab world,” CNN writes, citing a telegram received by the editors.
In it, diplomats write that because of Washington's support for Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the United States is "losing Arab society for a whole generation."
“We are losing badly in the messaging department,” said a cable sent Wednesday from the U.S. Embassy in Oman, citing conversations with “a wide range of trusted and clear-headed contacts.”
Active US support for Israel's actions is seen "as material and moral guilt for what they consider possible war crimes."
And the embassy in Cairo relayed to the White House a comment from a state-run Egyptian newspaper that President Biden's "cruelty and disregard for the Palestinians surpassed all previous US presidents."
There are reportedly growing concerns within the administration about US support for Israel, and Biden is also facing "growing frustration at home."
CNN recalls that at a recent summit with Blinken, Arab leaders called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and the secretary of state reiterated US opposition, saying it would give Hamas time to regroup and launch a new attack on Israel.
The Neocons are still running day to day policy, while on the domestic front the Israel Lobby faces an uphill battle in attempting to suppress the First Amendment. What is the rest of the Ruling Class thinking about?
This should be appearing on Youtube soon if it isn't there now. Mearsheimer isn't a real military analyst but he undoubtedly has excellent sources:
US Military has Overextended Itself - John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen
A longer war always favours the insurgents, because modern Western nations simply can't take the casualties and bad publicity. All Hamas has to do is survive. Elon Musk has been saying some valid if rather obvious things on X: unless the IDF goes full genocide, they are going to create a whole new generation of Hamas recruits. Finally, Euro diplomat and former French PM. Dominique de Villepin, made a very good speech to about Netanyahu's massive errors. Very surprising and encouraging to see a Euroweenie talking sense for once and not just following the Washington line.