In the Military Reality vs. Political Reality post today I quoted the guys at The Duran extensively, including their fears that the US would be conned by Poland and the Baltics (and perhaps a couple of additional nations) into putting US boots on the ground in Ukraine—in an official war fighting capacity, rather than in a support capacity. Unofficially, it’s already possible that US personnel are manning or commanding the M777 howitzer and HIMARS missile systems in Ukraine. It’s beyond doubt that the US is providing the required targeting and guidance support for the efficient operation of these systems. On the other hand, The Duran guys do also suggest that the likelihood is that the US will, in the fairly near future, face considerable pressure to find an off ramp, due to the developing de-dollarization process that will make continued support for the war financially non-viable.
Bernard at MoA has a clever post today that addresses the same topic:
As others have also done, he extrapolates from Desert Storm to argue—with the help of maps—that the US doesn’t remotely have the forces and logistical capabilities at its disposal to launch a Desert Storm scale operation in Ukraine. And Ukraine is 5x larger than the Ukrainian theater would be. He concludes:
No U.S. ground troops will move into Ukraine. It is ludicrous to think otherwise.
What he means, of course, is that it’s ludicrous to think so. Bernard isn’t a native English speaker.
I agree with him on that score, but there is a third possibility that splits the difference between The Duran and MoA. My concern is that the US could blunder into a shooting war on some scale, without ever putting “boots” on Ukrainian soil in a deliberate deployment. What I have in mind is the degree of participation in the fighting that the US is already engaged in, and its support for other nations, like Poland, that are involved in a very direct fashion. Recent public statements by the Russian government suggest that the Russians are losing patience. My concern is that Russia could decide to take out NATO ISR flights around the perimeter of Ukraine, that are actively assisting Ukrainian forces. Or could strike at assembled military equipment—assembled for shipment to Ukraine—inside Poland. Something like that. The US is certainly flirting with possible Russian retaliation. The consequences are not entirely foreseeable.
My concern is that the US could blunder into a shooting war on some scale, without ever putting “boots” on Ukrainian soil in a deliberate deployment. What I have in mind is the degree of participation in the fighting that the US is already engaged in, and its support for other nations, like Poland, that are involved in a very direct fashion. Recent public statements by the Russian government suggest that the Russians are losing patience."
I think the likeliest scenario for direct US involvement would be a decision to send in troops if Ukraine is going down. Before I get a welter of replies about why that would be insane, or deriding American prospects of success, let me say that the Biden people have an enormous sunk cost here and I'm not sure they can bear to see their investment go down the tubes. Anyone who says that a US military rescue would be a mistake will get no argument from me. Then again getting this deeply involved in Ukraine was a mistake and yet here we are, and they might just ride that mistake to the bottom.
EDIT: I found this graphic on time to replace the hardware we've shipped to Ukraine. It's worse than I thought.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/01/war-games-2.php
Mark, have you seen this Glenn Greenwald interview with the German leftist-populist anti-war politician, Sahra Wagenknecht? She is drawing a lot of support from both the left and the right. A smart, knowledgeable, and engaging woman. I'd love to get your opinion. (A couple of years ago I wouldn't have imagined I'd ever want to have anything to do with Glenn Greenwald, but times do change!) https://rumble.com/v27rlj8-system-update-31.html