Black Sea Update
A few days ago I wrote briefly about the sharp drop of US ISR flights over the Black Sea, in the wake of the American attack on a beach in Crimea. These flights don’t just gather intel. They actively engage in target identification and guidance of munitions of various sorts. The original speculation was that, when the Russians called the US ambassador in for a tongue lashing, they told her they would shoot down drones in the future.
Just yesterday I listened to Lawrence Wilkerson talking with Judge Nap. Wilkerson maintained that the Russians, in fact, told the ambassador that they were establishing a no fly zone over the Black Sea. Now, other countries—including major NATO countries like Turkey—have Black Sea coastlines, so it’s not clear how the Russians would do that for the entire surface of the Black Sea. According to Wilkerson, however, the mechanism was this: The Russians stated that they will shoot down any aircraft over the Black Sea—manned or unmanned—that are engaging in actions hostile to Russia and its armed forces. That, says Wilkerson, is what caused the phone call of our SecDef to the Russian minister of defense. Wilkerson characterized this as a very major escalation by Russia.
These tweets indicate that all of that may be the case:
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
Summary of RQ-4B patrols over the Black Sea in June:
• 01/06 (FORTE16 10-2045)
• 04/06 (FORTE12 10-2045)
• 06/06 (FORTE14 09-2039)
• 11/06 (FORTE12 10-2045)
• 14/06 (MQ-4C BLKCAT5 169659)
• 21/06 (FORTE15 11-2046)
• 23/06 (FORTE10 11-2046) Attack on Crimea
• 27/06 (FORTE14 09-2039) cancelled mid-flight
On June 28 Russian MoD warns measures will be taken if the American Drone keep patrolling.
It's been 7 days since the last operation, we'll see how long it lasts...
10:54 AM · Jun 30, 2024
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
It's been 12 days without an American RQ-4B Drone flying over the Black Sea.
Looks like Russian MoD 'threats' to shoot it down were enough to keep it away.
US Army 2 x CL60 ARTEMIS
ISR Aircraft active along Moldova/Black Sea (BRIO66/BRIO88)
In related news:
Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics
Jul 4
BREAKING:   President Putin states that he considers Donald Trump's plan to end the war with Ukraine very seriously and that Russia supports it.
About time