Black Sea, Caucasus Rumblings

I’m having a few busy days here, but I want to point to events in the Black Sea and Caucasus regions. These are key strategic locales for threatening non-compliant nations outside the collective West.

First, the Black Sea. These observations relate to what may be imminent attacks on Russia, directed by US/NATO:

Rybar Force @rybar_force

 While Russian troops are achieving certain successes on the front, the AFU are preparing for new attacks in southern Russia, primarily on Crimea.

For several days now, NATO intelligence has been patrolling the borders of the Russian Federation from the Black Sea with increased intensity. The peak was yesterday, when there were at least eight aircraft in the air.

 Moreover, two long-range radar detection aircraft - a French E-3F and a Turkish E-7T - were operating over the Black Sea waters, which is unusual given that the Turks have not participated in such activities before.

 The presence of French E-3Fs of the French Air Force was considered a precursor of forthcoming attacks on Russia's southern territories since last year. And today the RQ-4B of the US Air Force is "vacuuming" the sky south of Crimea.

In addition, for a week now there has been increased activity of cargo ships and ship cranes in Ukrainian ports, which may be related to the unloading of various weapons, including unmanned boats.

And the recent "idle" flights of Su-24M bombers are highly suspicious and look more like pilot training (there were only dummy launches with intermediate landings at airfields in the central part of so-called Ukraine).

So new raids are not excluded, especially against the background of territorial losses at the front. The Ukrainian authorities really need to shift the narrative in the news, and a missile strike or an attack by unmanned boats is their favorite tactic.

11:34 AM · Feb 21, 2024

Rybar Force @rybar_force

 Another factor behind preparations for new attacks on Russia is the high intensity of NATO's UAVs not only in the Black Sea area, but also in other parts of the territories bordering the Russian Federation.

In addition to E-7T and E-3F, NATO's E-3A periodically flies to the shores of Romania. As a rule, they take turns on duty, so flying two long-range radar detection aircraft at the same time is a rather unique situation.

 This aircraft also fly alternately over Poland: the Australian E-7A circles along the Belarusian border, or the E-3A from Geilenkirchen.

 The Swedish Saab 340 Global Eye UAV has taken over the Baltic area. It patrols near Kaliningrad region, then Pskov region, then Leningrad region, under the guise of an operation to "contain Russia".

Of course, all this can be justified by the active stage of the Brilliant Jump exercise, but the last time such high activity was maintained for a long time, the AFU tried to attack St. Petersburg. And the exercises, as we know very well, are just a convenient cover for actions of a somewhat different nature.

11:44 AM · Feb 21, 2024

Next, the Caucasus.

The US, UK, and Israel have for decades focused on creating instability in this formerly Russian region that remains of critical strategic importance both to Russia as well as to Iran. US activity goes back at least to aiding the Chechen terrorists. Israel, as a US proxy, has long been active in Georgia (2008) and Azerbaijan, targeting both Russia and Iran. UK intel and military activity in the region actually goes back to at least the end of WW1. It’s important to understand that Azerbaijan is ethnically Turkic. Armenia, which has traditionally aligned with Russia and Iran for security in light of the past Turkish genocide against Armenians, is the current target for destabilization, with the object of excluding Russia and Iran from the region and disrupting the North South Trade Corridor. The Armenian Prime Minister appears to be acting under direction from the West, without regard to his own country’s security, wedged between hostile Turkey and Azerbaijan. It’s impossible to see any benefit accruing to Armenia from being placed at the mercy of Turkey and Azerbaijan:

Rybar Force @rybar_force

 Hraparak Daily quoted its sources as saying that the recent visit of the Armenian delegation to Iran was held in a tense atmosphere.

Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan held a meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, who made it clear to the Armenian delegation that Russia's squeezing out of Transcaucasia is highly undesirable.

In Yerevan, the official post-visit press release avoided the topic, noting only that Iran supported Armenia's sovereignty.

However, behind closed doors, Raisi said that Iran does not allow the complete transfer of regional security management to the West, which Yerevan is now clearly striving for by discrediting Russia's military presence.

Tehran assured that in case of Russia's withdrawal from the region, the Iranian side can independently ensure Armenia's security by locating its military base in Syunik region. Iran did not allow Western military presence in the region, calling it a factor of destabilization.

Reading between the lines, that sounds like a pretty direct threat by Iran to intervene in Armenia if Armenia allows a Western military presence. Iranian intervention would certainly lead to war with Turkey and Azebaijan, likely drawing in Russia as well. The next tweet describes that as an “ultimatum” from Iran. You have to presume that Russia and Iran have consulted on this matter.

Rybar Force @rybar_force

 Based on the current situation, such an ultimatum on the part of Iran could actually take place. Tehran does not benefit … from [a] Western military presence nearby, [nor] from the strengthening of Baku [Azerbainan] in tandem with Ankara [Turkey], which can declare its interest in the Iranian provinces of West and East Azerbaijan [these are ethnically Azerbaijani regions in Iran].

This is why for Iran, the previous security system with its checks and balances was far more beneficial than what the region is now being pushed towards.

 And, as Hraparak notes, this very question may reveal the real ultimate goal of Nikol Pashinyan's [Armenia] government: preserving Armenian statehood or pushing Russia out of Transcaucasia at the bidding of Western curators.

3:26 AM · Feb 21, 2024

Once again, the US fishing in troubled waters with no regard for the lives of those who live in the region.