Big Win For Kev? Maybe

So Kev McCarthy will be Speaker. I’ll say up front that I disagree with Tom Luongo’s view that this whole process somehow “turned CSPAN into must-see TV.” The real action was going on behind closed doors—but that’s a minor point and, of course, a matter of taste and personal preference to some extent. De gustibus non est disputandum.

I view this extended process as a positive development. It appears to me to be a warning shot across the bow of the GOPe that, going forward, things will not be business as usual. For starters, if the GOPe decides to try to pass actual legislation that is offensive to conservatives, they will only be able to do so by colluding with Dems. That will spell doom for many in 2024. My personal belief is that McCarthy will back away from anything of that sort, no matter how many in the GOPe are stupid enough to contemplate that course. So, gridlock—or perhaps an electoral cleansing down the road.

However, behind closed doors …

One part of the agreement that put Kev in the Speaker’s seat—or put the gavel in his hand, if you prefer—was the formation of an investigative committee along the lines of the Church Committee. For those few readers who may not remember those days, I’ll quote Wikipedia:

The Church Committee (formally the United States Senate Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations with Respect to Intelligence Activities) was a US Senate select committee in 1975 that investigated abuses by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), National Security Agency (NSA), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

Sundance covers that story, and I’ll quote CTH shortly. Obviously this is a very positive development, on its face. Here, if you follow the link and scroll down for the Rumble video, is the brief Tucker segment that CTH features, featuring one of my favorite Reps—Thomas Massie. It’s high time action was taken against the Deep State, and Jim Jordan will probably do a creditable job, to the extent that he can overcome the expected stonewalling. Massie, who is slated to be on the committee, assures Tucker that they will be forthcoming with information. CTH goes a step further than Tucker and notes:

The subcommittee has a noble goal; however, the success or lack thereof will ultimately come down to the personnel choices on and in the committee itself. Additionally, and this is a major hurdle, the subcommittee is going to run head-first into the Senate Intelligence Committee obstruction and disinformation system.

The operational mission of the current Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), is entirely to stop any government action that might impede, investigate or attempt to remove the Fourth Branch of Government the senate has created. The SSCI, the U.S. Intelligence Community and the Dept of Homeland Security will target this House Subcommittee, the members, the staffers and their families, with extreme prejudice.

I’d like to be optimistic, but I have to agree with CTH here. However, it remains possible that the new subcommittee’s activities may consume enough of the Deep State’s energies in defensive stonewalling that some of its offensive operations will wind up on the back burner for the next two years or so. If so, the big win for Kev will be that he’ll get credit for starting this process.

This seems a good time to consider “political polarization”. Karl Denninger has a post on that topic today: The WORST Political Upheaval EVER. KD’s main point is that the sort of squabbling we’re currently witnessing is NOT the worst political upheaval the US has ever seen—bad as it is. Interestingly, an example he cites of a worse time of political upheaval is the Palmer Raids, (1919 - 1920) which was also cited in our recent review of Glenn Ellmers excellent essay regarding the role of the FBI in constructing our National Security State. Palmer was Woodrow Wilson’s AG, and the widespread arrests for suspected disloyalty were carried out by J. Edgar Hoover. By comparison, KD argues, our current troubles are not as bad—at least not if what we’re looking at is simple political squabbling.

Now, KD is not exactly a Pollyanna about our current crisis, nor is he exactly a culture warrior. However, he makes a simple but penetrating observation regarding what he sees as the bigger crisis facing us. He sees that as a societal crisis, although naturally the crisis is reflected in politics as well:

At its core the problem, however, does not lie there [in partisan politics]: It lies in the destruction of norms that society has relied on.

Don't kid yourself no matter who screams about it: Without heterosexual reproduction and the resilience afforded by stable, two-parent homes as an "ordinary and normal" thing society eventually collapses because without a productive next generation you have nothing.

KD thinks will come through that, too. I’m not as convinced. Ron DeSantis, for one, seems to think the Culture War is the smart political move, so maybe he’s on to something:

Ron DeSantis Gets Real Fighting Wokeness

The core problem that KD sees is one that will have to be won at the local level. We’ve got a long way to go.

To wrap up, and to place Kev’s speakership into a predictive context, let’s review Tom Luongo’s ten predictions for 2023. Some of them may seem tangential to the role of a Speaker, but the problems facing the US and the world are major and will sooner or later involve all branches of government—and the new House will take up the matter of spending later this year. I’ll list the predictions and perhaps a brief excerpt explaining the prediction, but Tom’s discusses each of them at greater length. Follow the link for the detail:

GOAT Predictions for 2023 – Losing My Religion

1) Inflation will return with a vengeance.

The next round of commodity-based cost-push inflation will mix dangerously with the growing realization that we can’t avoid things breaking. There will be no ‘soft landing.’ The hard landing may not happen in 2023, but the set up for it will certainly take place.

2) The Fed’s terminal rate is closer to 7% than the ~5% the markets are handicapping.

Even I was surprised by the violence of Powell’s hawkishness in 2022. He did what I wanted him to do, be aggressive and attack the source of Davos’ power, the leveraged offshore dollar markets. He forced out into the open the unsustainability of a weaker dollar based on the clown show on Capitol Hill being worse than the real collapsing governments across Europe.

I have to wonder whether the pressures arising from the continuing Clown Show that is DC will lead to pressure to cave to Russia sooner rather than later. That will only come as the result of a showdown between the Neocon foreign policy establishment and the House.

3) The Euro will collapse to $0.80 or lower

The EU is a religion to the political class of Europe and its Davos paymasters. They, like real communists, see this period as the end-state of capitalism and that the dialectic is true. History was written, as it were.

They are wrong. And the beginning of the end of the European Union starts in 2023 with another 20% to 25% collapse of the euro.

4) The War in Ukraine Will Continue Dangerously

Here I differ somewhat from Luongo. Tom first presents the Neocon/Davos case: they believe in the inevitability of a Russian economic and demographic collapse. Thus, if the can keep the war going and bleed Russian manpower, they can win:

For this reason neither the UK/US Neocons nor Davos believe having a reverse gear vis a vis Russia is the right play. This is their strategic vision, regardless of the costs to the West itself.

However, Luongo goes on to point out some countervailing indications—the growing rifts within the EU, with many members now exhibiting cold feet syndrome. Moreover—and I would argue that we’ve seen signs of this within the last few weeks …

At the same time, expect Putin to keep opening up new fronts for the US/UK to deal with, see my next point.

The UK/US Neocons’ only play, then, on the battlefield then is further escalation to the brink of a nuclear exchange, which these insane people think they can win.

I agree that Putin will in fact begin opening up new fronts in ways that could prove quite painful for the US (see, just for starters, Tom’s next prediction). I would argue, however, that the US is reaching the end of its tether when it comes to escalation. Time will tell.

5) The US Will Leave Syria in 2023

By making the deals with Erdogan over becoming the new “Gas Hub” into Europe, Putin has effectively done to the US and UK what they always try to do to Russia, open up another front to distract it from the main problem, i.e. Ukraine.

Now Syria becomes the 2nd battleground for the US to decide if it will defend or will it suffer another ignominious retreat like Afghanistan?

6) De-Dollarization Will Accelerate / USDX Will Rise.

Because of all of these competing forces — inflation, de-dollarization, war, etc. — the last US dollar bull market for the foreseeable future should be on tap in 2023. For how long? It’s a good question, I can’t answer.

But I do know that it’s tied to #7 and to the Fed’s need to keep raising rates.

7) Saudi Arabia will de-peg the Riyal

When (not if) the Saudis put their first oil tender up for bid in Shanghai, that will signal the end of the currency peg that created the petrodollar. It will be a subtle thing that will gain steam over time, just like Russia and China diversifying their holdings into each other’s debt and currencies has taken years to develop.

So, the petrodollar will continue to die by a thousand cuts. The Saudis will lead OPEC+ out of the US dollar arena, validating both China’s onshore futures markets while also moving a significant amount of the gold trade away from London to Hong Kong.

8) Oil will Open 2023 Near the Yearly Low

Increased demand, tight supply, low replenishment investment and WAR. Even a moron or Joe Biden can see that $70 per barrel Brent is out of the question for any significant period of time.

9) Dow Jones 40,000+

10) Biden is Impeached

Best for last?

This looks like the long-shot of 2023, ...

The soft underbelly for Biden at this point is FTX and divulsions of the US Gov’t’s censorship activities on Twitter. All of these things, along with corruption in Ukraine, can easily be tied back to Biden.

This is all legally correct. I’m disturbed at the way the FTX scandal is being swept under the carpet. However, looming defeat on the foreign policy front could change a lot of the political dynamics at home. People will start looking for someone to pin the blame on, and the mechanism for doing so.

The majority of people are so black-pilled at this point that they believe nothing will ever change on Capitol Hill. But the first rule of good investing is remembering that the majority is almost always wrong.

And it is the sudden realization of their real power by a critical mass of people that alter the landscape literally overnight. So, while it looks like Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) tilted at windmills against a terminally corrupt Uniparty, they are simply fanning the smoldering embers of long-thought-dead principles on Capitol Hill.

This is why I really liked Gaetz’s nomination of Trump for Speaker. It broke the mold for a lot of people, changed the paradigm.