Bad Idea: Demonstrating The Limits Of Power Projecting
Yesterday evening/night I summarized Steve Jermyn’s ideas on balance of power—which he offers as a development of some of John Mearsheimer’s concepts. At the same time I referenced the NYT article on the Yemen debacle that Trump allowed himself to be talked into:
One of the worst aspects—from a US military standpoint—of Trump allowing himself to be talked into harebrained Israeli schemes has been that he has revealed, for all the world to see, the limits of US power projection. That, of course, was on full display in the failed war on Yemen. The USN was forced to take unusual measures to stay out of the range of a less than first rate military—and narrowly dodged a major disaster when emergency maneuvers were required to prevent a Houthi missile from striking a US carrier. The cost of maintaining even a 30 day war far from CONUS were seen to be unsupportable—not just in terms of dollars spent, but in terms of advanced munitions expended for little to no benefit. That pointed to problems with a key balance of power metric—industrial capacity.
I noted that Trump has toned down his kinetic military threats and now appears to be showing a preference for the sanctions threats. However, sanctions are still warfare, and with America’s power projection limits becoming ever more clear, there are dangers involved in that type of warfare as well. What if a coalition of sanctioned and tariffed countries takes limited military action against US interests somewhere around the world? You don’t want to flirt with that possibility. Some reminders:
If indeed the October 26, 2024 attack on Iran was the devastating success Israel claimed it was, they would absolutely have followed it up with strike after strike after strike after strike.
But they haven't gone anywhere near Iran since then.
Quote
Amerikanets @ripplebrain
May 8
In the single, large-scale example of stealth aircraft going up against modern air defense we know about, the side with the stealth aircraft deliberately didn't penetrate said air defense, and depending on who you believe, aborted most of the mission. x.com/Born2Klootvioo…
Will Schryver @imetatronink
Yemeni firepower represents, at most, about 5% of what the Iranians could bring to bear against a US naval fleet anywhere near its shores.
There are #NoEasyWarsLeftToFight.
We can only hope Trump understands this, and is able to thwart the designs of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult.
7:51 PM · May 13, 2025
Will Schryver @imetatronink
 More "Evasive Maneuvers"
The entire world has now learned that, in the past month, an American aircraft carrier and a "state-of-the-art" F-35 "stealth" fighter were forced to make last-second "evasive maneuvers" to avoid missiles launched by the supposedly "backward" Yemeni.
Quote
Tyler Rogoway@Aviation_Intel
F-35 Had To Maneuver To Evade Houthi Surface-To-Air Missile: U.S. Official
The incident took place during Operation Rough Rider, the enhanced bombing campaign against the Houthis launched by Trump on March 15.
Story: https://twz.com/air/f-35-had-to-maneuver-to-evade-houthi-surface-to-air-missile-u-s-official…
11:31 PM · May 13, 2025
We have been warned.
The sooner we learn to walk respectfully among the nations the better.
If the Houthis, or Iran, or any other country is able to damage or destroy one ship in the carrier group, it’s curtains for the USN aura of invincibility. This is coming, and our trillion dollar navy with $15B carriers will be limited to force projection in safe areas only - in which case, what is the point? We should be focused on building subs that are difficult to detect and destroy, but those aren’t sexy like expensive carriers and stealth aircraft.
And why do we want to take the defense budget to $1T?