Are Dems Toast In November?
Note that this isn’t about Zhou’s historically abysmal polling numbers—it’s about the Dem party.
Fox has a story out today that spells doom for the Dems, by any normal political measurement. That doom is in the title—it’s about the suburbs, stupid. It’s the suburbs that have provided the Dems with an edge in recent election cycles, but the suburbanites are fed up:
More than 1 million voters switch registration to GOP as suburbs break from Biden
Dems are trying to shift the conversation toward abortion
While it’s true that the Dems are doing their worst to rig the elections—Mollie Hemingway describes their plan, which requires flooding the voter rolls with new names—there is a serious flaw in their machinations. The plan involves mostly registering new voters from their base of lower income “folks”. The problem with that is that these are the same people who traditionally are unmotivated to actually get out and vote—and especially not in midterm elections. A change in that pattern is a sure flag of fraud, and the GOP as a party is likely to be more motivated in 2022 to challenge or even preempt such fraud. That’s not an endorsement of the GOPe—it’s just the reality of how party politics normally works.
The really bad news for the Dems as a party, however, is the number of people who are going to the trouble of actually changing party registration. These are people who are far more likely to vote in midterm elections, and the flood of party switching in suburban areas is a particularly bad sign. These people aren’t changing their party because of one office holder—they have finally had it with their party siding with freaks against normal people and the issues that matter to normal people:
The GOP is benefiting most in the suburbs of large and medium cities, where voters who supported President Joe Biden in 2020 are struggling with inflation and growing increasingly critical of Democratic social issues, according to an analysis from The Associated Press.
This couldn’t be happening at a worse time for the Dems, because the Dem effort to gin up enthusiasm for “social issues” amounts to spitting into the gale force winds of bad economic news. “Change the conversation to abortion” from inflation? Good luck with that! Moreover, to the extent that true social issues—those affecting the overall well being of society—turn out to be a factor for voters, those issues tend very strongly this year to be issues that traditionally work in favor of the GOP, like crime and border security. And of course, for every one person who changes party affiliation there are likely to be several more who aren’t bothering to switch—they’ll switch at the polling booth.
Check these polling numbers out—it couldn’t get much worse for Dems:
Here’s a breakdown that shows just how much time and public attention span the Dems have totally wasted on issues that voters just don’t care about—in particular, look at the J6 numbers compared to other issues:
The big takeaway from the massive changes in formal party affiliation, however, is that all this is about much more than Zhou—it’s about the Dems as a party and it’s about the policy positions that the Dem party espouses.
Commenting on this story, Red State notes that the Dems are simply doubling down:
We reported earlier how Joe Biden’s numbers just took another nosedive to their lowest ever. Bill Maher detailed on Friday how and why people are fleeing the Democrats, as we saw with the formerly very reliable Democratic district for decades in South Texas that went Republican Mayra Flores. In addition to the economy, people are moving away from the Democrats because of their moving to the radical left.
…
People have just had enough of them. And that anger isn’t limited to the folks who actually go to the trouble of switching party affiliation.
However, the response of the Democrats has not been to present policies that would truly improve things. Nor are they re-evaluating their extremism. Rather, they are turning that up, even more, …
The impact of all this may well show up in local elections as well—not just Congressional and Senate races. Red State points this out:
The Real Reason Democrats So Mad About Dobbs, Roe, and Abortion
The radical base of the Dem party has been pushing hard to force out any “moderates”, and especially the few remaining pro-life people like Joe Manchin. At the same time, the violence of the rhetoric used by abortion enthusiasts—I think that’s the right word—is being ramped up to extraordinary levels. Levels that are sure to repulse all normal people, who remain in the majority.
In my state, Louisiana, Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards signed a full abortion ban, citing his pro-life stance. Meanwhile, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is calling for any Democrat who is not pro-choice to be expelled from the party and public office.
Edwards likely would not have won the governor’s mansion is deep red Louisiana if he had not run on some conservative values like being pro-life. But Ocasio-Cortez does not think that he should be in elected office because of his stance.
... To chase out those who have been successful in purple and red states is political suicide.
...
But while voters have routinely shown that they don’t support extreme politics and policy, the Democrats have doubled down on the extremes. ...
... But as they continue to embrace the farthest of the far left in their rhetoric, they push the rest of the voters towards the middle and make it more likely that those voters switch to the Republican Party.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/historic-west-virginia-catholic-church-burned-ground-arsonist-police-say
Ask yourself: What percentage of Americans self-identify as church burners? All the extremism and outright violence should take a major toll on the party espousing it.
Why do people change their party affiliation rather than simply engaging in crossover voting? It's about self image. If their self image can no longer tolerate membership in a given party, that's a big shift.