Anglo-Zionism - Iran: Where Are We Headed Near Term?

Much remains up in the air. Let’s start first with the state of the regime in Iran. Governance in Iran is complicated. The elected government is regarded as “moderate” and interested in better relations with the West—meaning, with the Anglo-Zionists. But the elected government doesn’t have total control over policy, so there’s a give and take situation between the government and the guiding power of the Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader, rather than the President, is the Head of State—the President is Head of Government. At the same time, elections in Iran provide a barometer of public opinion that the Supreme Leader doesn’t ignore. The significance of a “moderate” government under Pezeshkian.

The significance of this system came out in the Iranian attempts to negotiate with Trump. No matter what reservations the Supreme Leader and the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard structure) may have had, the popularly elected government was allowed to go forward with negotiations with public support. The result was Trump’s ultimatums, position switches, and then sneak attacks—the first through Israel, the second directly by the US. This was a wake up call to all Iranians that was, in a way, similar to the wake up call that all Russians received: The Anglo-Zionist Empire is no one’s friend and cannot be trusted. The result is a gathering of support for the regime as a whole.

That’s important for the near term conduct of the war. The WSJ journal is reporting that the US is asking Arab states to convey to Iran that Israel wants to end the war. The reason is simple. Israel bit off more than it could chew and can’t sustain its war on Iran, which Iran is turning into a war of attrition.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:  The U.S. has asked Arab nations to convey a message to Iran that Israel wants the war to end soon – WSJ

The Sirius Report @thesiriusreport

US and Israel are telegraphing very clearly that they don't want a war of attrition with Iran.

In doing so they are also indicating the profound weaknesses they are exposed to if Iran was to keep that war going for weeks and longer by targeting Israeli sites.

My best guess is that Trump’s attack on Iran—most likely a result of pressure by Israel through wall to wall lobbying by Mossad in the White House—whether choreographed or not, was intended to get Iran to stand down and allow an off ramp for Israel. That’s the purpose of the continuing empty threats of “regime change”—even if these fantasy scenarios are somehow believed by the incompetent Trump team.

This time is different. Despite Israel’s attempt at a terror campaign on Iran, it’s clear Iran is determined to stand fast:

Patarames @Pataramesh

The counter-value (terror) phase in the conflict has begun, with Israel having the escalation dominance here after the lastest strikes on Tehran

•  Entering the counter-value phase, or escalating it, is usually due to insufficient firepower, requiring strikes on painful targets for the population.

•  Iran has a plausible excuse here: Israel's missile defenses require very fast terminal speeds to overcome, which in turn can reduce accuracy.

•  Israel however has no excuse, it wants to inflict pain on the population for internal "regime change"

The “regime change” goal is a pipe dream. What Israel is hoping for with the terror campaign is, in effect, to force Iran into a ceasefire. That’s not happening. Iran continues to take out strategic targets that have the potential to shut Israel down. This morning a major power plant near Ashdod was taken out, shutting down power across southern Israel. This will continue. Iran is simply in a much stronger position to shut Israel down than Israel is to shut down Iran.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

23m

 BREAKING: "We did not initiate the war and we did not desire it, but we will not leave aggression against great Iran without response."

— Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran.

A further signal that Iran intends to continue its response to the Anglo-Zionist sneak attack with a war of attrition is the meeting of Iranian foreign minister Araghchi with Putin this morning. As we’ve consistently maintained, Iran is the Southern Front in the Anglo-Zionist war on Russia and China. It is very much in the strategic interests of Russia and China for Iran’s war of attrition to continue:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Russia gearing up to do in Iran what NATO did in Ukraine. 

Quote

Middle East Observer @ME_Observer_

2h

 Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov:

• The strategic partnership between Russia and Iran is unbreakable

• We are working with Tehran in various fields and revealing the details of this cooperation would be unacceptable

9:36 AM · Jun 23, 2025

Whatever Iran’s reasons may have been for declining to enter into a mutual defense pact with Russia as part of their strategic partnership, it’s clear that the Iranian government—not just “hardliners”—understands a much closer defense relationship with Russia and China. That will be an ongoing process, but the dynamics are there:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

Kremlin says Russia is ready to assist Iran in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but Tehran first needs to clarify its demands.

Iranian sources told Reuters:

Tehran is "not impressed" with the support it has received so far from Russia in its war against Israel and the United States. This is the message conveyed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during his meeting with Putin today. According to the report, Araghchi told Putin during their meeting today in Moscow that Khamenei wants him to provide more assistance.

All of this puts Trump into a difficult position, after he foolishly allowed Netanyahu to mousetrap him into moving so much of the US’s military resources to the Middle East region where they will be at constant risk of attack.

Beyond continuing a war of attrition with Israel, will Iran strike US targets directly? The reports coming in as we write are that Iranian ballistic missiles are inbound against targets in the Persian Gulf—including our major base in Qatar (al-Udeid) and a base in Iraq. How serious these attacks will prove to be remains to be seen.

The other major question is, of course, whether Iran will take action against the energy flow out of the Persian Gulf. The fact that the Persian Gulf, as we write, has been turned into a war zone will surely have an effect on oil prices in the short term. What the longer term brings remains to be seen as well. Iran’s choices aren’t limited to a simple binary Hormuz open/closed. As with the Red Sea blockade, there can be more targeted actions against hostile powers. In this regard, Larry Johnson made a good observation this morning:

Right now, there's been a lot of speculation that Iran will shut down the Strait of Hormuz. I don't think they will, and for this reason—80% of the oil that comes out of the Persian Gulf goes to Asia right now. Iran's standing and diplomatic support from the Asian countries is astonishing and so I don't see [Iran] taking steps that would prevent oil from getting [to Asian destinations].

However, Iran’s choices aren’t limited to that simply binary choice. Moreover, this entire situation—even just at the margins—is likely to give Russia increased leverage. I’m not sure how well this will work:

JUST IN - US President Trump: "Everyone, keep oil prices down. I'm watching.."

The markets get a say, in the final analysis.

Overall, this looks like a major screwup by Trump—he has chosen to get the US in the middle of a major international embroglio without public support and with any off ramps under the control of others. I’m looking for significant political fallout as the incompetence of his administration in foreign policy becomes more apparent. Imagine having the State Department spokes-something-or-other referring to the United States of America as “the greatest country on earth next to Israel.” Yeah, that really happened.

Lastly:

Richard @ricwe123

21h

Donald Trump:

"Kamala will have us in war in 6 months"

He did it in 5.....