And Now For An Alternative View

More Ukraine--from Day 9

Jomini of the West bills himself as a Polemologist—a student of warfare, from the Gr. polemos. He presents a very detailed assessment based on Ukrainian government and Western sources, including AP and Reuters. His overall assessment is that both sides are having to shift resources “within theater”—the Russians in order to continue offensive movement, the Ukrainians mostly to maintain defense.

Thus, we see the Russian strategy of mostly encircling and bypassing major urban areas, which would be resource sinkholes, in order to continue the larger encirclement strategy. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are facing the difficult decision—especially near Kiev—of whether to attempt to take troops from defensive positions in order to launch counterattacks that would be necessary to stop the steady Russian advance.

My caution is that, while Jomini starts by stating that the Russian focus remains on encircling Kiev, per Ehrlich that may be a simplification. There’s no doubt that at least encircling Kiev is a top Russian priority. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be the focus of offensive action at this point. Encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the East and South may be the current priority before shifting West. In the meantime the Russians may be content with steady progress toward Kiev, cutting Kiev off from reinforcement.

On the other hand, Ukraine is a large country and Russian military resources are likely not sufficient to conduct a Blitzkrieg offense while attempting to avoid destroying important infrastructure and minimizing civilian casualties. That’s the balance that Putin appears determined to maintain, albeit with fine tuning.

Jomini of the West

8h • 12 tweets • 4 min read

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 9: Russia continues to focus on encircling Kyiv and have made important gains to the east of Kyiv. The Ukrainians estimate Russia has committed 90% of available forces to current operations. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #UkraineWar

2/ It is likely that the Russian Armed Forces have culminated with the forces currently available. This means we are unlikely to see major Russian gains in the coming days. Reports indicate that substantial reinforcements from the Southern and Eastern OSKs are enroute.

3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, operations on the west bank of the Dnieper will likely shift to consolidation and defense until additional forces arrive. To the east, Russian forces will likely continue to advance into Kyiv. #Kyivunderattack

4/ The Ukrainian military has caused enough attrition of Russian forces in Kyiv that they may risk shifting forces from west Kyiv to the east for a counterattack in Brovary toward Nizhnyn, which is critical to prevent the capital from being encircled.

The obvious danger in such a shift is that it risks exposing Kiev to attack from the west. It’s a risky, possibly desperate, strategy.

5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces have been able to exploit the bypass of the Nizhnyn-Pryluky line and have advanced to within 20km of Kyiv’s center. The Russians will have difficultly advancing further without more troops.

6/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. Key take away, Russian forces remained largely static in Kharkiv. Russian efforts have shifted to north Luhansk to break the stalemate before Kharkiv. Forces have likely been pulled from here and sent toward Kyiv.

7/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. Key take away, the situation in Mariupol continues to worsen. It is likely Ukrainian forces in the city will not be able to hold out beyond the next 48-72 hours. Focus will be in preventing a Russian advance on Odesa.

8/ Aerospace Operations. The Ukrainian military states Russian Aerospace Operations are intensifying against the Black Sea coast, with SU-24M bombers covered by SU-30M fighters conducting strikes against various targets using RBC-500 cluster munitions.

9/ Russian Overall Assessment. Russian momentum has slowed in the past 24hrs, particularly with regards to air and artillery strikes. It is likely recent gains have been possible by redistributing forces in theater. Current troop levels likely cannot sustain further advances.

This is the optimistic assessment.

10/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military still control key points of communication. However, if Russia can bring in fresh forces the Ukrainian military will have to assume increasing risk in concentrating forces to make essential counterattacks.

Other reporting, including from Western sources, casts doubt on the claim that Russian forces are at max commitment, without reserves. Note the important caveat, given the unreliable nature of these sources:

11/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

12/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

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