An Iranian Take On What Could Come Next

As of a few hours ago Israel is continuing to target civilians in Teheran—including with the use of car bombs—so there will be an Iranian response. What will it look like? Patarames believes that the Israeli targeting of civilians will lead to Iran using heavy EMAD missiles against military targets in Tel Aviv (Israel’s largest military base is actually in Tel Aviv, as are many key military facilities). What follows is his overview of the situation for now.

First, he notes that the resort to car bombs probably means that the drones smuggled into Iran are mostly used up.

Patarames @Pataramesh

Israel's counter-value strikes against civillian objects in Tehran today leave Iran only with one option:

 Replying the counter-value strike by inflicting sufficient pain to disincentivize further attacks of that kind

Patarames @Pataramesh

1h

Resorting to car bombs, means the in-situ FPV and One-Way-Attack drones numbers are going low.

Like the air-launched ballistic missiles before it.

  Activating the remaining "terror-type" assets here.

Likely to be sold as "airstrikes by fighter jets"...

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

Israeli media reports that months before the opening strike on Iran, Israel smuggled drone parts and explosives into Iranian territory in suitcases, trucks and tankers.

Iranian media is now reporting that forces have raided a warehouse where Mossad assembled drones.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 Most of the attack inside Iran were committed by collaborators and domestic traitors.

They shoot with anti-tank missiles around Tehran.

Fighter jets can no longer overfly much due to the reset Iranian air defense systems.

There is a massive CIA-Mossad backed network across Iran.

.

Iran is prioritizing strikes against air defense sites.

Patarames @Pataramesh

The spectacular hypersonic impacts on Tel Aviv aside:

Iran is at a capability-level where it is actively trying to hit/neutralize -missile-defenses

The ultimate goal of Operation True Promise III is disarming Israel

 Missile defenses are soft targets.

Near hit is enough.

The remarkable 50 second video, linked below, shows a strike on an Israeli air defense site:

Patarames @Pataramesh

3h

Another video on a DEAD strike on Israel's missile defenses.

Positioning these in downtown Tel Aviv is a very risky move

 An airburst fuse can be utilized to spray the region around the battery with fragments

 Narrative is that the targets are just civilians

Finally, a four part overview:

Patarames @Pataramesh

Time to explain some realities:

- Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time.

- Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage asset.

Since Israel hit civilian targets at the start of the attack, Iran will use heavy missiles like Emad to hit targets, even in urban regions.

The Emad is liquid fueled which, per my recent substack, means deployment is time consuming. To this point lighter missiles have been used, but the Emad can carry a payload approaching a ton.

Once Arrow-3 and THAAD are exhausted by trying to catch hypersonics like Kheybar-Shekan-2/Fattah-1 via multiple launches against single missiles, the gates are open for heavy Emad hits.

And up until here, there is no talk about higher end even heavier warhead missiles like the Khorramshahr family.

In comparison, Israel relies primarily on OWA-type drones to hit soft targets.

The psychological effects of seeing a burning oil depot are very different to experiencing a blast of a 1-ton warhead at mach 6

It was a quite irrational, even desperate move by Netanyahu to attack civilian targets and enable Iran to reciprocate

Getting the U.S. involved sounds hence like a good explanation for such an irrational move. Iran's missile salvos can't be stopped anytime soon by the IDF.

Open Source Intel @Osint613

Important to note:

Israel still has functioning air defenses. More importantly, it holds tactical nuclear weapons.

Something that Iran does not have.

Patarames @Pataramesh

5h

Correct, the threat of tactical nuclear strike is high right now.

All this will play out soon enough.