American Imperial Policy In Crisis In The Middle East

Today Simplicius the Thinker features a wide ranging analysis of the state of war in the Middle East. Simplicius’ analysis is spurred by events we’ve discussed—the continuing failure of Israel to accomplish any military goals in Gaza, only genocidal goals; the double announcements yesterday of US plans to withdraw military forces from both Syria and Iraq; the deepening economic effectiveness of the Suez Canal blockade. To his great credit, Simplicius goes beyond mere description and offers some value added insight:

Iranian Axis Grinds Down US' Will as Israel Suffers Stunning Setbacks

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism protests that the characterization of an “Iranian Axis” is simplistic, and I have to agree:

Israel and US Military Operations in the Middle East Going Wobbly Under Multi-Front Pressure

Still, she agrees that Simplicius is on to many important aspects of the war in the Middle East, and adds some additional insights.

Simplicius begins with a description of how badly things are going wrong for the IOF in Gaza. He describes a campaign that is so off the rails that entire brigades have been withdrawn for “reconstitution,” due to heavy casualties. He adds reporting from the ueber-Zionist ISW to the effect that, far from Israel “securing” northern Gaza, it appears that Hamas is reoccupying areas. Tellingly, Israel is unable to provide support for more than scattered casualties among actual Hamas fighters.

Of course, all of this bad news is tightly controlled by Israeli military censors, but it’s filtering out, nevertheless. It’s also leading to divisions within the Israeli government and society and, according to the WaPo, within the Zhou regime as well.

That, of course, is the background to the Israeli attempts to get some sort of ceasefire deal. As we discussed yesterday, these attempts are clearly proceeding from a position of weakness—a need to somehow regroup—and were rejected by Hamas.

Today comes news that, with all this going on, with the US now openly discussing pulling out of key areas of the region, Arab resistance militias are announcing plans to use missiles to shut down the major Israeli port of Haifa—in other words, to add a Mediterranean blockade to the Houthis’ Red Sea blockade:

Senior Iraqi Islamic Resistance Commander Hajj Abu Alaa Al-Wala’i: Resistance operations have moved to the second phase.

The second phase of the Islamic Resistance’s operations in Iraq includes enforcing the blockade on Zionist maritime navigation in the Mediterranean Sea and putting the ports of the usurping entity out of service.

MoA has some interesting information that bears on this development.

Yesterday, the US navy attempted to escort several large ships into the Red Sea past Yemen. Houthi attacks forced the convoy to turn back. Now, those vessels were Maersk ships that were generally described as “commercial ships.” However, according to MoA:

These were not purely civilian ships involved in the private transport of consumer goods:

The Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake are operated by Maersk Line, Limited (MLL), Maersk’s US-flag subsidiary. Both ships are enrolled in the U.S. Maritime Administration’s Maritime Security Program and Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement (VISA) with the U.S government.

Maersk said the vessels are carrying cargo belonging to the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of State, USAID, and other U.S. government agencies and “is therefore afforded the protection of the U.S. Navy for passage.”

As a result, Maersk Line, Limited has made the decision to suspend transits in the region in until further notice, a significant development considering MLL’s role in transporting U.S. military and government cargo. MLL is not only the largest owner and operator of US flag vessels trading internationally, but also the largest participant in the VISA/MSP programs.

These ships were most likely carrying munitions for Israel. The U.S. Navy lost the battle as the ships could not pass.

Both of these developments come as a major arms deal in support of the Israeli genocide has been announced:

Clash Report @clashreport

#BREAKING Massive Israel-U.S. military deal has been signed

The deal was signed in the last day in Washington, Israeli media reports.

As part of the deal, the following will be transferred to Israel:

- A squadron of F-35 jets (25 aircraft)

- F-15AI squadron (25 aircraft)

- Apache squadron (at least 12 combat helicopters)

- Many thousands of weapons are expected to arrive in the coming days.

The deal has been agreed and the supply of the planes will be provided as soon as possible, also from within the American military.

The armaments are expected to arrive within days. Officials in the Israeli delegation say: This is a really dramatic deal.

Israel is asking the Americans to prioritize supplies, given the development of the campaign and the possibility that it will develop into a multi-arena war.

12:48 PM · Jan 25, 2024

Let’s pause and digest the preceding. Will the sea blockade put a crimp in munitions resupplies? Quite possibly. I’m not an expert on logistics of this sort. Obviously the planes can be flown in, but my guess—subject to correction—is that shipborne transport, while slower, can provide far larger quantities. As an aside, the extent to which the Houthi blockade alone is impacting the global economy can be judged from the announcement today that an LNG shipment from Qatar to Italy has been canceled.

The provision of frontline US air assets, of course, means drawing down the assets that are available to the US military—at the same time that the US is rattling its sabers against the likes of Russian and China. Does anyone else see a problem there?

The fact that the Houthis were able to turn back ships escorted by the US navy speaks volumes as to the ability of the navy to thwart missiles attacks from the Houthis. In the event of escalation, my guess is that the Persian Gulf would be shut down entirely by more advanced Iranian missiles. Our bases in that region would also be put at risk.

Naturally the world is scrambling to find alternatives—Simplicius references a proposed land route across Saudi Arabia from the Persian Gulf. But Houthi missiles can certainly reach that route. The situation is getting so dire that, as we discussed yesterday, the US is pleading with China to intercede with the Houthis. The initial Chinese response? The US should stop the genocide! Easy, one phone call will do it, but the Neocons …

Now, the bombshell announcements of US plans to withdraw from Syria and Iraq come at an interesting juncture. As we reported recently, Russia has begun combat air patrols along the Syria - Israel dividing line at the Golan Heights. This is obviously intended to put a stop to Israeli attacks on Syrian airports. I suggested yesterday that this could also be a move that was made in coordination with Hezbollah’s attacks degrading Israeli’s military anti-missile and air traffic control systems operating near the Lebanon border—the two areas are in close proximity. Simplicius picks up on this and writes:

This may be a tactic to block the US in with a one-two punch. Russian planes deter Israeli strikes, which helps Iran build strength and deliver arms to its militias in Syria; then those militias increase pressure by hammering US bases in the region. Seeing the writing on the wall, the US knows the situation is untenable and unsustainable.

Yes, but it also helps Hezbollah’s supply lines, and Hezbollah is the group that will be doing the frontline fighting if Israel attacks in the north. In addition, a US withdrawal coupled with Russian air protection for Syria will also facilitate missile attacks from Syrian territory on Israel—and particularly on the key port of Haifa.

Recall that the whole point of Israel and its US proxy attacking Syria was to replace the Iran friendly Assad regime with a fanatical ISIS/Sunni regime that would shut Shiite Iran off from its Hezbollah ally in Lebanon. For the US to withdraw from Syraq almost looks like conceding the region to Iranian influence. Is the provision of F-16s and F-35s to Israel also a message that, yes, Israel will get weapons, but it will also need to get realistic and come to terms with its neighbors, starting with a cessation of genocide? Or is it a clearing of the decks, as I speculated yesterday, before an Israeli attack on Lebanon—which most analysts regard as suicidal. Simplicius concludes by speculating along similar lines:

This brings up one last potential explanation for the new bombshell announcements that the US may leave Syria and Iraq: it could be a threat to Israel. Since Israel does not take any other type of plea into consideration, the only remaining avenue for the US may be to simply threaten to ditch the region, with the attendant loss of direct regional military support to Israel. In short: stop your escalations or we’ll leave you hanging to fend for yourself against this emergent Iran. And some within the state department and military may be outright pushing for the total withdrawal simply to keep the US from being embroiled in a larger war they know is unwinnable.

In support of that view, he cites the view of a former diplomat, who warns that time is running out for the US:

Biden has a very short window within which he can cut off Netanyahu before he can carry out his apparent war aim to depopulate Gaza and carry the conflict to Lebanon and possibly beyond — a conflict, in other words that could very well drag American forces into another endless Middle Eastern war. A quick and decisive decision, combined with real diplomacy to exploit the crisis and craft a workable solution to 75 years of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, would recover America's reputation.

The Neocons took the American Empire way out on a limb. Now, says Simplicius:

My take is this: in short, the US is being run out of town by Iran. Their bluff was called and US knows their puny strikes can do nothing to truly degrade Iran’s highly decentralized hybrid warfare systems and groups. Iran has risen to become a hegemon verging on a Great Power of the region. The US has a few obsolete fleets which cannot keep up blow for blow with Iran in exchanged rounds of ammo. Iran can saturate them forever with drones and cheap rockets which the US is spending millions per every fired shot to intercept.

Furthermore, the US cannot produce its most important strike weapons in enough quantity to ever win a long endurance stand off. For instance, here’s a thread showing US’ procurement of refurbished and upgraded Tomahawks, indicating [Raytheon] can only produce a few dozen per year for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Slowly but surely push appears to be coming to shove. The Neocons have led the US into an Israel trap that is turning into a possible existential threat. The US can gradually withdraw from the region by agreement, and make various face saving noises. Or it can wait for shove—a regional war that we’re not prepared for.