AM Geopolitical Roundup, 7/21/25

Today is a grampa day, so slow posting. However, there are a few things going on already. These two seem significant, for sure.

The first is that Russia and China are coordinating with Iran. What this is almost certainly mainly about is the triggering of “snapback” provisions to the JCPOA coming up, which will trigger heavy new sanctions on Iran. So:

Iran Nuances @IranNuances

22h

#Iran Leader’s aide, Ali Larijani, met President of #Russia, Vladimir Putin, to discuss nuclear issue and the recent developments in the Middle East.

3:16 AM · Jul 21, 2025

#Iran's Foreign Ministry Spox: As special presidential envoy, Ali Larijani conveyed Iran's message and main views on a range of issues. He had a constructive meeting with the President of #Russia.

#Iran, Russia & China will hold trilateral talks in Tehran tomorrow on #nuclear issue, said Iran Foreign Ministry Spox, adding that "Director-Generals will discuss key issues, including the threat of snapback. We're coordinating on how to prevent it or mitigate its consequences."

In addition:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

  US Air Force RC-135S Cobral Ball (62-4128) landing in Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar 

First time see here. This aircraft detects and gathers intelligence on Ballistic Missiles activity.

So maybe they know Iran is going to test something new, or the US is going to test something.

1:23 AM · Jul 21, 2025

Thinking of having a bake sale for Gaza? Think again. It might make Jews feel uncomfortable. You have been warned:

OTOH, and speaking of food, does this make anyone uncomfortable?

UNRWA @UNRWA

We are receiving desperate messages of starvation from #Gaza, including from our colleagues.

Food prices have increased 40 fold.

Meanwhile, just outside Gaza, stockpiled in warehouses, UNRWA has enough food for the entire population for over three months.

The suffering in Gaza is manmade and must be stopped.

Lift the siege and let aid in safely and at scale.

1:00 AM · Jul 21, 2025

Speaking of feeling uncomfortable …

Horror in Gaza: IDF killed 30 Palestinians while waiting for food aid— The Times of Israel

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@grok, two questions;

1. Has this report been independently verified?

2.Given the visual evidence from recently documented incidents with similar patterns, how likely is it that Hamas is responsible for the fatalities?

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Grok @grok

23h

1. Yes, independently verified by BBC, Reuters, AP, UN, and witnesses/videos geolocated to sites near Khan Younis/Rafah on July 19-20, 2025. Death tolls range 26-70 across sources.

2. Low likelihood; evidence (videos, eyewitnesses) shows IDF gunfire/tanks caused fatalities. No confirmed Hamas involvement in these deaths, though IDF claims crowds posed threats possibly linked to militants.

Unconfirmed (my me) word is that it was an angry Trump who phoned Netanyahu and demanded that he apologize for bombing that Catholic church in Gaza.

This could be a major monetary and geopolitical development, given the way that central banks around the world are buying gold:

FIRST TO REPORT: Russian Gold Breaks Away from London—A New Era Dawns
Silver Academy ^ | 17 July 25 | Silver Academy

Russia’s new gold exchange severs London ties, challenging Western price control and signaling a seismic power shift in the global precious metals and financial order.

In a transformative move shaking the bedrock of the international precious metals market, Russia is preparing to launch its own gold trading platform, decisively severing ties with the London Stock Exchange and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). This bold initiative signals not only a dramatic assertion of financial sovereignty, but a direct challenge to three centuries of Western dominance over global gold pricing.

London: The Historical Epicenter of Gold Power

To grasp the gravity of Russia’s gambit, one must understand London’s entrenched role in shaping the gold market. The City of London—an autonomous enclave with special privileges—has long stood at the crossroads of world finance. Guided by historic banking dynasties and a network of influential institutions, this hub has regulated the gold trade, set benchmark prices, and wielded immense leverage over global capital flows.

For over 300 years, the London Gold Fix, along with its successor mechanisms, has determined not only gold’s daily value but also its perception as a global reserve asset. Critics allege that these systems enable substantial manipulation, with “paper gold” contracts vastly outnumbering physical bullion in circulation. Such dynamics have allowed the West—primarily London and New York—to exercise outsized influence over both the gold price and, by extension, the economic fortunes of nations reliant on gold reserves.

Russia’s Strategic Breakaway

The Russian government’s move to create an independent exchange comes as both a practical and symbolic statement. In the current geopolitical climate—amid ongoing sanctions and economic pressures—Moscow sees an imperative to establish a self-determined system free from external interference. This exchange will operate entirely outside Western structures, using alternative benchmarks and potentially denominating gold contracts in rubles or neutral currencies.

Market analysts suggest this effort is more than mere self-preservation. It represents a clear effort to realign gold’s value with tangible supply and demand—not derivatives, swaps, or unallocated promises. By prioritizing physical delivery and transparency, the Russian platform could expose discrepancies in the West’s “paper gold” markets, where physical metal backs only a fraction of outstanding claims.

Implications: Ripple Effects Through the Global Financial System

Should the Russian gold exchange gain traction and attract foreign participation—especially from China, India, and Middle Eastern nations—the world could witness a rapid evolution in gold-based trade. Potential outcomes include:

Dismantling Paper Gold Mechanisms: By favoring physical settlement, Russia’s platform could reveal vulnerabilities in Western gold pricing and encourage similar systems elsewhere. Erosion of the Petrodollar System: As nations seek monetary alternatives, physical gold trade could weaken the dollar-dominated financial order, chipping away at its global monopoly.

Shift in Reserve Strategies: Sovereign wealth funds and central banks, particularly in the Global East and South, may increase allocations to physical gold acquired outside London or New York. Diminished City of London Influence: The City may lose its privileged role as gold’s universal pricing authority, realigning power toward emerging markets and new financial coalitions. Conclusion: A Global Watershed

Russia’s impending launch of a gold trading platform is more than a market adjustment; it is a step toward restructuring the postwar architecture of monetary power. As gold breaks free from London’s grasp, it raises vital questions about the future:

Will other nations follow Russia’s path? How will global value measurement and financial alliances evolve? One thing is clear—the ground underneath the world’s oldest monetary metal is shifting, and the consequences for the global order could be profound.

For conservatives concerned about ongoing cases in the courts that challenge executive power, this is a good read. Like Professor Turley, I continue to believe that the SCOTUS is on course to uphold executive power under the Constitution. Follow the link for the full article. These are areas of our constitutional order that have been sidestepped over the decades and are little understood. Upholding the Constitution won’t abolish politics, but it will change the game. It might even embolden people to challenge abuses of executive war making powers:

A crash course in Article II
Washington Examiner ^ | July 15, 2025 11:58 pm | A crash course in Article II

A CRASH COURSE IN ARTICLE II. Among other things, the second Trump administration is giving the political world an education in the meaning of Article II of the Constitution, the article that establishes the executive branch and lays out the president’s powers. A lot of people do not like what they are learning.

“The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America,” it begins. The article outlines the process for electing the president, establishes qualifications for office, creates the oath of office, and details the process for removing the president. It lists the president’s powers, both sole powers, such as serving as commander in chief of the military and the power to pardon, and powers he exercises with the advice and consent of the Senate, such as making treaties, appointing judges, and appointing officers of the United States. Article II also says the president “shall take care that the laws be faithfully executed.”

Donald Trump came into office in January knowing that his opposition — Democrats, their associated activist groups, lawfare specialists, and media allies — would do everything they could to stop his initiatives. Before the recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is Trump’s sole, albeit really big, legislative achievement to date, all of Trump’s accomplishments in his first months in office have come through his exercise of the executive authority laid out in Article II.

The most successful strategy the anti-Trump coalition has used so far is what might be called Lawfare 2.0. For years, the coalition pursued impeachment, lawsuits, and criminal investigations against Trump. Now, it is filing lawsuit after lawsuit to stop specific Trump initiatives. It has had extraordinary success at the lower-court level, with many compliant judges enjoining the administration...

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...