All Eyes Are On ... Transnistria
Transnistria. Right.
Just in case a few readers may not be up on their Transnistria FAQs, history, demographics, etc., a handy place to get up to speed is here: Transnistria. Once you start following the links, which will lead to further links, you’ll quickly come to the realization that, as with most things Balkan, nothing is as simple as you’ve been told. Here’s a start:
Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), is an unrecognised breakaway state that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Transnistria is mostly located in most of the narrow strip of land between the Dniester river and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border, with control of some land on the river's other bank. … Transnistria is officially designated by the Republic of Moldova as the Administrative-Territorial Units of the Left Bank of the Dniester or as Stînga Nistrului ("Left Bank of the Dniester") under Russian military occupation.
The region's origins can be traced to the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, which was formed in 1924 within the Ukrainian SSR. During World War II, the Soviet Union took parts of the Moldavian ASSR, which was dissolved, and of the Kingdom of Romania's Bessarabia to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1940. The present history of the region dates to 1990, during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, when the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was established in hopes that it would remain within the Soviet Union should Moldova seek unification with Romania or independence, the latter occurring in August 1991. Shortly afterwards, a military conflict between the two parties started in March 1992 and concluded with a ceasefire in July that year.
As part of the ceasefire agreement, a three-party (Russia, Moldova, Transnistria) Joint Control Commission supervises the security arrangements in the demilitarised zone, comprising 20 localities on both sides of the river. Although the ceasefire has held, the territory's political status remains unresolved: Transnistria is an unrecognised but de facto independent presidential republic with its own government, parliament, military, police, postal system, currency, and vehicle registration. Its authorities have adopted a constitution, flag, national anthem, and coat of arms. After a 2005 agreement between Moldova and Ukraine, all Transnistrian companies that seek to export goods through the Ukrainian border must be registered with the Moldovan authorities. This agreement was implemented after the European Union Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine (EUBAM) took force in 2005. Most Transnistrians have Moldovan citizenship, but many also have Russian, Romanian, or Ukrainian citizenship. The main ethnic groups are Russians, Moldovans/Romanians, and Ukrainians.
In fact, the historical complications—which remain very much alive today—go back to Ottoman Empire days. Moldovans are basically a regional version of Romanians. The reason Moldavia and neighboring areas with Moldovan minorities are separate from Romania is rooted in history. The area that is now Moldova was historically—from the 15th to the 18th centuries a battleground involving the local Moldavians, the Ottoman Empire, Poland, Ukrainian Cossacks, and the Khanate of the Crimea. Beginning in the 18th century that dynamic changed, as the Russian Empire began the reconquest of what is now southern Ukraine and Crimea from the Turks and Tatars, and replaced Poland as the Slavic power to be reckoned with in the area.
Many Balkan areas have warm feelings toward Russia, because of Russia’s role in assisting their liberation from the Ottoman Empire. This is especially true of Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece (mixed) as well as smaller areas. Those warm feelings are not shared, for the most part, in Romania—which explains why Romania, with Poland and the Baltics, has been playing such an antagonistic role toward Russia during this current conflict. The basic reason is that Romanians and Moldovans would like to be one united nation but, for historical and demographic reasons, Russia has stood in the way. The area variously known (and variously defined) as Bessarabia and Moldova became part of the Russian Empire in the late 19th century as part of the Russian wars with the Ottoman Empire.
Now, to shift gears slightly. During the years between the two World Wars, Romania had its own homegrown fascist movement, known as the Iron Guard. Romania had, after WW1, developed into a Greater Romania—absorbing all Romanian ethnic regions, but also some regions with mixed ethnicities—including Moldavia to the extreme East/Northeast, bordering the USSR:
However, in 1940 Romania got the Polish treatment—it was partitioned, with the USSR reclaiming the Moldovan region and Hungary taking Transylvania. Bulgaria also had a whack at part of Greater Romania:
Not surprisingly, the Romanians took this very badly, although to varying degrees there was a certain rationality to the partition—as usual in this region, each competing ethnicity had some sort of claim or grievance that made a bit of sense, but not enough to resolve things satisfactorily without creating new grievances. At any rate, in 1941, Romania’s Iron Guardist government joined with Germany and Italy and invaded the USSR, in the hope of restoring Greater Romania. The Romanian army got as far as Stalingrad—and we all know what happened there. The Italians and Romanians were supposed to prevent the German forces from being isolated inside Stalingrad, but they got steamrolled by the Red Army. Later, in 1944, Romania switched to the Soviet side and reconquered Transylvania from Hungary.
Following WW2 the USSR imposed its preferred borders. Moldova once again became a Soviet Socialist Republic, but Romania got to keep Transylvania. That held until 1989. Moldova chose independence from the former USSR, which Russia did not oppose, but the Transnistria region—heavily Slavic and Russian speaking—broke away from Moldova and was supported by Russia. At this point, you can return to the top if you wish, which brings us to the present.
Here’s what’s going on now, and this is why all eyes are suddenly on Transnistria:
What’s going on here? There are two possibilities—either or both, if you will. One is that the Ukrainians very much need to distract Russia from the Donbas, where the Ukrainian forces are getting crushed by Russian bombardment. The other is that Russia maintains an arsenal in Transnistria, and the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition—the arsenal is rumored to contain enough ammunition for decades of war. That seems an exaggeration, and each of these possibilities appear to me to be difficult, but never say never in the Balkans:
So last night there were explosions in Transnistria at two communications towers. In addition an important bridge came under missile attack. This bridge is basically the only way to get military supplies from Romania to Odessa in Ukraine by land.
World War 3 in the offing? Here are the latest reports:
When does the debate on whether to have World War 3 begin in America? Are people paying attention? Will an alternative voice—one of reason—be allowed in the American public square? I’m not seeing how all this war—military and/or economic—is good idea.
Maria Zakharova Russian MFA Spokeswoman
Response to British Govt remarks regarding Britain arming Ukraine.
https://t.me/MFARussia/12406
I was under the impression that Russian forces destroyed the bridge at Odessa.
The situation in Transnistria is very troubling.