Air Superiority v. Air Dominance

Bill Roggio Analyzes NYT Article

The NYT is running an article that, in important ways, concedes that Russia is in the drivers seat and is accomplishing its objectives in Ukraine. Of course, the NYT isn’t about to make that open concession—it takes a bit of reading between the lines.

For example, the article addresses an often misunderstood aspect of the campaign—one which illustrates a Russian approach differs from the typical US approach. That may reflect different objectives. Bill Roggio provides useful analysis regarding the air campaign aspect of the article:

1) Interesting information on the control of the skies above Ukraine: @nytimes: "While experts have been puzzled by Russia’s failure to gain complete control over the Ukrainian skies, [the Russians] are certainly dominant ..."

Its offensive slowed, Russia uses long-range missiles to devastating effect. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/world/europe/its-offensive-slowed-russia-uses-long-range-missiles-to-devastating-effect.html

2) "... --- Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities can reach anywhere in Ukraine, according to military analysts. Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10."

3) In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers."

4) “They disabled an important headquarters and communications center in the beginning with precision strikes,” he said.

5) "Just as the Russians are plagued by logistical and resupply issues, the Ukrainians are struggling to replace the stationary systems that the Russians have destroyed or disabled."

6) “Gradually Ukrainians are losing their radars or warning systems,” Mr. Lukasiewicz said.

7) We have to consider the possibility that the Russians have been holding back the bulk of its air force until Ukrainian air defenses have been sufficiently degraded. Russia appears to be relying on long range missiles to hit key air defense facilities.

Exactly. We also have to consider that the Russians certainly had excellent intelligence regarding the Ukrainian air defense system and its capabilities vis a vis Russian offensive systems.

8) Disabling a sophisticated air defense network doesn't happen overnight. It can take weeks to accomplish. If true, this is evidence that the Russians were prepared for a lengthy campaign.

9) The sortie ratio of 200 to 5/10 a day in favor of Russia shows that the Russians have a distinct advantage in the air. And this part of the reason Zelensky is pleading for a no-fly zone.

10) One last note: @nytimes said the Russians are "dominant" in the air but then says they don't have Air Superiority. This might be splitting hairs, but that is somewhat contradictory. NATO defines Air Superiority as follows:

11) "That degree of dominance in the air battle of one force over another which permits the conduct of operations by the former and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by the opposing force."

12) To be clear, I am not saying the Russians have Air Superiority (it sounds like they are on the cusp), but @nytimes is using terminology that implies it does.

• • •

It sounds rather like a distinction without much difference. One that reflects differing tactics, as well as a desire to avoid simply obliterating Ukraine—thus the references to “precision” strikes and the very low level of civilian casualties in comparison to US air wars.

Babushkha of Brovary @skaldique

@GeromanAT Iraq Body Count reports 6,700 civilian casualties in the first 3 weeks of the Iraq war. 377,000 dead in Yemen. In comparison, in Ukraine, the UN reports 847 civilian casualties. Calling it "genocide" is shamelessly egregious. Anon are absolute tools.

David Goldman points out what looks like another NYT concession—an analysis that is shared by others:

David P. Goldman @davidpgoldman

First time NYT reports "steady" Russian advances. Putin said his plan was to "demilitarize" (destroy the UKR army) and "de-Nazify" (destroy the Azov Brigade). The best military intel types I know say Putin is doing exactly that. It's not Blitzkrieg, but encircle and kill.

Levi @Levi_godman

⚡️⚡️PRO UKR SOURCE The Pentagon is confident that Ukrainian forces in the Donbas will be surrounded and then methodically destroyed in cauldrons before the end of the month. 1

-- GEROMAN -- 👀 - @GeromanAT

And now again - the main goal of Russia is not taking cities - the main goal is to take out the Ukranian forces for good. So even if Russia advances only one millimeter a day - that does not mean they won't achieve that goal.

The Cavell Group @TCG_CrisisRisks

Ukraine - Expecting an increase in Russian airforce operations this week with a shift in air-ground integration. Russian aviation has been significantly held back for whatever reason so far, but used to its full potential it could still enhance limited progress by ground forces. https://t.co/q8YJTQBpEc

-- GEROMAN -- 👀 - @GeromanAT

Only simple minded Western brains still believe that "taking cities" is a good idea... Just surround it - pressure it - cut them off. And fuck up any movement between them. And that is the strategy. Mariupol is a special case - there is a huge concentration of Azov.

-- GEROMAN -- 👀 - @GeromanAT

And now again - the main goal of Russia is not taking cities - the main goal is to take out the Ukranian forces for good. So even if Russia advances only one millimeter a day - that does not mean they won't achieve that goal. https://t.co/uG4y5HipVb

Rob Lee @RALee85

Modern warfare is about combined arms. Tanks, infantry, helicopters, artillery, etc. are all vulnerable if employed by themselves. Using them together is how you mitigate their vulnerabilities. There is a reason why tanks are playing a key role in Mariupol right now.

Anders Åslund @anders_aslund

Russia's war in Ukraine illustrates how warfare has changed. Tanks & armored personnel carriers have become obsolete. They are too expensive & are easily destroyed with manifold light anti-tank weapons or drones.

Cell phone culture can be a danger:

The Telegraph @Telegraph

🔴 British volunteer fighters are feared to have triggered a deadly airstrike on a Ukrainian military base after their phones were detected in the area telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…

And Zelenskiy ends Ukraine’s “democracy”. Neocons always the last to get the real news:

Michael Tracey @mtracey

Tweeted just hours before Zelensky unilaterally banned 11 opposition parties -- impressive

David Frum @davidfrum

Ukraine may be the first example in human history of a country that under the pressure of war is becoming *more* tolerant and *more* liberal