Air Superiority v. Air Dominance
Air Superiority v. Air Dominance
Bill Roggio Analyzes NYT Article
The NYT is running an article that, in important ways, concedes that Russia is in the drivers seat and is accomplishing its objectives in Ukraine. Of course, the NYT isn’t about to make that open concession—it takes a bit of reading between the lines.
For example, the article addresses an often misunderstood aspect of the campaign—one which illustrates a Russian approach differs from the typical US approach. That may reflect different objectives. Bill Roggio provides useful analysis regarding the air campaign aspect of the article:
1) Interesting information on the control of the skies above Ukraine: @nytimes: "While experts have been puzzled by Russia’s failure to gain complete control over the Ukrainian skies, [the Russians] are certainly dominant ..."
Its offensive slowed, Russia uses long-range missiles to devastating effect. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/19/world/europe/its-offensive-slowed-russia-uses-long-range-missiles-to-devastating-effect.html
2) "... --- Russian surface-to-air missile capabilities can reach anywhere in Ukraine, according to military analysts. Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10."
3) In the first week of the war, it is not clear how many Russian strikes hit their targets, but Piotr Lukasiewicz, an analyst at Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based research institute, said that they did serious damage to Ukraine’s command and control centers."
4) “They disabled an important headquarters and communications center in the beginning with precision strikes,” he said.
5) "Just as the Russians are plagued by logistical and resupply issues, the Ukrainians are struggling to replace the stationary systems that the Russians have destroyed or disabled."
6) “Gradually Ukrainians are losing their radars or warning systems,” Mr. Lukasiewicz said.
7) We have to consider the possibility that the Russians have been holding back the bulk of its air force until Ukrainian air defenses have been sufficiently degraded. Russia appears to be relying on long range missiles to hit key air defense facilities.
Exactly. We also have to consider that the Russians certainly had excellent intelligence regarding the Ukrainian air defense system and its capabilities vis a vis Russian offensive systems.
8) Disabling a sophisticated air defense network doesn't happen overnight. It can take weeks to accomplish. If true, this is evidence that the Russians were prepared for a lengthy campaign.
9) The sortie ratio of 200 to 5/10 a day in favor of Russia shows that the Russians have a distinct advantage in the air. And this part of the reason Zelensky is pleading for a no-fly zone.
10) One last note: @nytimes said the Russians are "dominant" in the air but then says they don't have Air Superiority. This might be splitting hairs, but that is somewhat contradictory. NATO defines Air Superiority as follows:
11) "That degree of dominance in the air battle of one force over another which permits the conduct of operations by the former and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by the opposing force."
12) To be clear, I am not saying the Russians have Air Superiority (it sounds like they are on the cusp), but @nytimes is using terminology that implies it does.
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It sounds rather like a distinction without much difference. One that reflects differing tactics, as well as a desire to avoid simply obliterating Ukraine—thus the references to “precision” strikes and the very low level of civilian casualties in comparison to US air wars.
David Goldman points out what looks like another NYT concession—an analysis that is shared by others:
Cell phone culture can be a danger:
And Zelenskiy ends Ukraine’s “democracy”. Neocons always the last to get the real news:
I am suspecting a shift in the NYT with this and the recent Hunter Biden laptop acknowledgement. I suspect an undertaking to throw Zhou under the bus and regime change in the next few months (prior to the midterms) otherwise impeachment on the table.
Rasmussen polling showing 38% approval but just wait until the Iran deal hits...
Funny how we all (MSM too) assume we knew what Putin's plan has been all along. Initial 1st week or two reports of being "bogged" down and "stiff" resistance. MSM thinking this would be over in less than a week. Putin's plans more obvious now to take out the armed forces of Ukraine completely shows how stupid our media is. Frum is a perfect example too. Can't wait for GG to go after the Canadian hack.