I’m pasting in below part of a much longer Twitter analysis of the current state of the war in Ukraine. As you’ll see, it’s all about the east—the Donbas. As the author points out, this is where the main action is, because it’s where the Ukrainian military’s best units were stationed. It’s important to understand Ukrainian geography to see why Russia is focused on the east and south of Ukraine—because Ukraine’s most effective units are there, and because they’re in a position to be encircled and destroyed.
The problem facing the Ukrainian forces is that, while they know they need to withdraw from the east to avoid encirclement, they are locked in place by the Donetsk and Luhansk forces. They can’t just turn their backs on attacking forces and try to skedaddle—that’s a recipe for disaster. But in the meantime the Russians are inexorably closing the encirclement, forming a cauldron. That’s where geography comes in. The Dniepr river forms a major east/west barrier to military movement, which transport forced through only a handful of funnels that cross the river. Those funnels are killing fields for air power and various forms of artillery. The Russians have already cut off two out of the four possible crossings, and have a much shorter route to travel to cut off the remaining crossings than the Ukrainians have.
However, to repeat: It will be extremely difficult for the Ukrainians to disengage from combat many miles to the east and attempt a “race” to the Dniepr. Even if they should attempt it, they’re likely to lose the race. It’s a recipe for total defeat—but so is attempting to remain in place a recipe for disaster. This is why knowledgeable analysts like Col. Macgregor are saying that it’s only a matter of time before this is over. Destroying Ukraine’s best units, which are in the east, turns out to be the quickest way to make Kiev indefensible.
Now, Bazaar of War explains it in more detail—with pictures!
The biggest story is in the east. As some Russian forces are besiege Kharkov, others have pushed past to attack the Ukrainian position at Izyum, a major road junction which will make it difficult for the Ukrainians to withdraw their forces in the Donbas.
Note in the map the way virtually all Ukrainian units are locked in place at the Line of Contact, whereas Russian units—those that aren’t encircling urban areas—are relatively free to maneuver.
@mentions At the same time, the Russians seem intent on cutting off both the Dnieper crossings at Zaporizhzhia & Dnipro AND drawing a tighter cordon around the Donbas forces.
Which might explain ....@mentions....the reported attempt to relieve Kharkov. EXTREMELY unlikely to achieve its stated goals, given the overwhelming firepower Russia has assembled there, but it might relieve the pressure on Izyum enough to allow withdrawal of the Donbas forces.
@mentions The race is on for the withdrawal, if that is indeed what's intended. There are four major routes between the Donbas and the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia crossings; the southern one has already been cut off in multiple places and the northern one is threatened at Izyum....
@mentions ... so expect a race to Pokrovske and possibly Pavlograd. After that, the last major urban battle will be Dnipro.
@mentions Around 45k soldiers from Ukraine's best units were stationed in the Donbas at the beginning of hostilities, so there is a lot at stake for both sides. So much so that we might expect Russia to increase its use of air, even in the face of air defenses.
Unroll available on Thread Reader• • •
During the Second World War the Germans came up with something they called “the roving pocket” which - ironically enough - had its debut around Lvov in March 1944 during the Cherkassy (or Korsun) Pocket Operation which Belgian Leon Degrelle described in detail in his poignant “Campaign In Russia: With the Waffen SS on the Eastern Front.” The “Roving Pocket was thus: “the Germans held simultaneously two parallel fronts 25 miles apart. The forward front line had a gap which narrowed to 3 miles by a pincers attack, whereas the other line was open on all flanks. This extraordinary synthesis of defense lines, as well as the interlocking pockets, we’re caused by German & Russian pincers, which were not completely closed. Defensive pincers are the preferred method of eliminating enemy bridgeheads. German experience shows there are no safer tactics for wiping out bridgeheads & inflicting heavy losses on the enemy.”
We’ll see if the Uk’s can channel German tactics but think it highly unlikely.
- from “German Defense Tactics Against Russian Breakthroughs”
https://www.amazon.com/Defense-Tactics-Against-Russian-Breakthroughs-ebook/dp/B06XZ8VTPP/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1A1PRAIXIXTI8&keywords=German+defense+tactics+against+Russian+breakthroughs&qid=1646516462&s=books&sprefix=german+defense+tactics+against+russian+breakthroughs%2Cstripbooks%2C117&sr=1-1
Degrelle link: https://www.amazon.com/Campaign-Russia-Waffen-Eastern-Front/dp/0939484188/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1I4MXOD4LLAHD&keywords=Campaign+in+Russia%3A+with+the+Waffen+SS+on+the+eastern+front&qid=1646517479&s=books&sprefix=campaign+in+russia+with+the+waffen+ss+on+the+eastern+front%2Cstripbooks%2C111&sr=1-1
Russia May not have cut it off with boots on the ground, but from what I read the no man’s land between the ends of the Russian pincers are in artillery range.