A Few Words On Politics And Elections From Shipwreckedcrew

For political junkies—shrewd observations:

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

Reposting this from Oct. 18 -- nearly 3 weeks prior to Election Day.

I said then that the Harris campaign shifted its messaging to "Trump is Bad" because it's internal polling showed that Trump had likely crossed the threshold of 270. Trump's internal polling was the same, and they started to expand the map.

I said "Watch what the campaigns do, not what the media polls say." The media polls -- much the media itself -- revealed themselves to be tools of those who produce and promote them. They are meant to keep the consumers of the media in a state of uncertainty -- actually believing that the outcome was in doubt.

I watched what the campaigns did and it was obvious which one was confident and which one was looking frantic.

Nothing of real significance happened over those final 3 weeks -- most importantly, nothing overtly positive happened for Harris. Then Trump got the McDonalds Day and the Garbage Truck Day.

I'm sure the internal polls for each campaign showed the movement of Hispanics -- mainly males -- to Trump, as well as black males although the question there was going to be how well they showed up on election day.

That is why in my prediction on Monday I was confident that Trump would win all those states where he had developed a lead after Harris started her first media tour with the 60 Minutes interview on Oct. 6. That's when UNDECIDED voters, or soft Harris voters, got a real look at just how bad she was.

The last 5 days was just a solidifying of the view "I just can't vote for her" in the minds of many.

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Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

Oct 18

Understand the difference in "internal polling" and media polls. About the only thing they have in common is the label.

The campaigns have hundreds of millions of dollars. A sizable chunk is spent on polling that, for a few weeks now, takes place every night.

And it is not

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9:59 AM · Nov 7, 2024

Who will lead the Dems going forward?

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

What the suggestion of Newsom resurrects is an East Coast v. West Coast internal battle.

Pelosi controlled this fight because she controlled the flow of Silicon Valley campaign cash. She could punish opponents and reward supporters.

There is a reason Hakeem Jeffries from New York was pushed up the leadership in the House -- it was to return power to the East Coast New York/Boston wing of the party after Pelosi had held it for 20 years.

So, I would be surprised if there wasn't significant resistance of another Calif figure stepping forward to be a leader of the Party.

But I'm not sure it will be Shapiro either -- the anti-Israel wing of the party is pretty significant right now.

The depth of Trump's win is so astonishing, I think the Dems will wander in the darkness for a couple of years, and a national leader won't emerge until after the 2026 midterms. I suspect it will be a Governor not named Newsom or Shapiro.

10:06 AM · Nov 7, 2024

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

I'm heartened by the fact that Trump improved with voters under 30.

It points out that endorsements from Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Cardi B, http://et.al., do not produce votes in elections.

Young adults are smart enough to understand that the price of gas doesn't mean anything to those people.

10:25 AM · Nov 7, 2024

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

Like him or not, an interview I watched of Frank Luntz probably hits a close to the bullseye as any post-election explainer that I have seen or read.

His focus group testing zeroed in on one key fact that ran thru a significant portion of Trump's coalition, AND was the main driver in the fact that the coalition got larger -- growing in every demographic and pretty much every state and most counties across the entire country:

Voters who identified themselves as living from paycheck to paycheck moved towards Trump and the GOP in massive numbers.

This cut across gender and all racial lines. While education was a divider in this category, even those with a college degree who were living paycheck to paycheck moved in Trump's direction.

This validates one perpetual truth in elections:

Right track/wrong track and the incumbent's approval rate will almost always prove to be what decides elections.

By election day, Trump was more "popular" in terms of there being a favorable view of his four years in office than had ever been the case before, and 70% of voters thought the country was on the wrong track.

If you are living paycheck to paycheck, the choice was easy.

1:16 PM · Nov 7, 2024

Shipwreckedcrew endorses Steve Sailer’s Coalition of the Fringes Theory:

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

He would be on the list certainly.

Whether he would scratch the itch of the "woke" end of the party is a real question.

But, that is a fight they are going to be forced to have otherwise the Dem Party will -- finally -- split into its core constituent groups that have little in common.

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Mootsie @whatmootsiesays

Replying to @shipwreckedcrew

I bet you'll see NC governor Roy Cooper try to take that spot. He's terrible but the dumbass dems will probably love him.

1:31 PM · Nov 7, 2024

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

Yeah -- let's have an in-depth story on her 92% turnover rate in her VP staff. And then look at the similar rate in her Senate staff. And then look at the turnover rate in her 2020 campaign staff.

She has always been a wreck because she has people all around her who are smarter than she is and they expect more from her than she can offer. So she fires the ones who she thinks make her look bad.

Always has.

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Megyn Kelly @megynkelly

What I’m really looking forward to is the in-depth piece by some NYT or Atlantic writer on how horrible she really was behind the scenes and the sheer panic by her advisors as they attempted to transform her into something marketable.

1:57 PM · Nov 7, 2024