I agree, but I would add that Russia and China are also likely helping Tehran with strategy. Weakening the U.S. military reduces our ability to support Ukraine or confront China, which serves both Moscow’s and Beijing’s interests.
Bessent saying the Strait will become 'irrelevant' is rather uninformed given all of the other commodities (helium, sulfuric acid, etc.) that sail through Hormuz and won't be transported via a pipeline.
I think they may now realize the Ben Gurian canal diversion is the better plan than more war. It's will take three years to construct, and it will give Israel the profits from the tolls. This delay allows for rebuilding and replenishing munitions and will eliminate Iran's leverage.
I don't see that as viable. Israel doesn't have three years and it will be very vulnerable to attack. It will be a straighter version of the SoH: a few drone hits on passing ships will block it.
It's only my opinion, but I was reading earlier this week about this subject and the actions in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon are not only a part of the 7 Islamic nations to colonize, but this also secures more land to protect the BG waterway. These people disgust me.
"This is more of a diplomatic maneuver intended to put pressure on the American administration," Prof. Nagel said. "The Saudis are disappointed with the conduct of the United States, especially in light of the shortages in missile and interceptor stockpiles that they identify in the West, and they are trying to signal that they will not remain alone in the campaign against the Shi'ite axis."
"The Saudis' problem is that they possess the most sophisticated equipment, aircraft, and intelligence, but they simply do not know how to use that power effectively on the ground."
I read or heard this many, many years ago. I can believe that it has not changed.
And they are lazy and are not prepared to do any actual fighting. They hire mercenaries and use poor brown people. As P J O' Rourke said when he was reporting the First Gulf War, he never saw a Saudi lift anything heavier than money.
This whole thing appears to be a variation of the “death by a thousand cuts”‘strategy and nobody in DC seems to get it. As has been pointed out here before; doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insane and when it comes to the life of the republic, it is suicidal. If you tell me that you know that the stove is hot and will burn your hand if you touch it and you go ahead and do it anyway, you are, with apologies to William Shakespeare, “ too cunning to be understood.” And this my dear friends is what passes for informed and intelligent leadership in the Trump administration.
Thank you for this article and the reference article. Now it is clear as day how valuable to the newly assertive confidence of one of the parties in this war is Diplomacy. The Iranian leaders appear to be diligent, industrious, conscientious, and eagle-eyed in their unified field theory of relations with adversaries, but also these leaders have a keen sense of rational decorum in their communicated relations towards other nations representatives. Contrast Iranian leadership public presentation with hasbara perfidy and American PR---different as day from night
It makes you realize that the Iranians are the type of people we should be partnered with, not at war with. I think our own "leaders" are intimidated by the Iranians, and rightly so.
The Iranians are handling this brilliantly. Limited but incremental attacks that take out a few F35s in their hangars here, a radar there are the way to go. The Israelis are dying to nuke Teheran; not giving them the excuse is a form of exquisite torture. How will Trump react? Will Israel go for a false flag?
I’m beginning to think, after all these years we’ve spent our blood, treasure and technology war-making on Israel’s behalf, that the creation of this State was itself a false flag.
I think you're right. The creation of Israel has resulted in a state of permanent conflict in the Middle East. That's a recipe for making money for the Rothschilds and their ilk while resulting in perpetual misery for everyone else involved.
I'm starting to think that it was a colossal mistake. I spent time on Kibbutzim in Israel and used to love the place. I've evolved! I can't believe what has happened to the Israeli mindset. Maybe it was always like that but I never noticed!
"Maybe it was always like that but I never noticed!"
When you read about the founders of Zionist ideology and the early founders of the Israeli state you see that it really was always like "that." They are explicit about clearing the land for themselves.
True, Mark. We see what we want to see. In the 80s it was the hip thing for Brit youths to go on a kibbutz. For me Israel was Raid on Entebbe and Fiddler on the Roof for historical context. How naive I was!
Very big if true. Just heard LJ saying that CENTCOM's intel group CAT has been "stood down", which he interprets as meaning no military action any time soon.
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
1h
BREAKING: US to lift its blockade on Iran once a deal is announced between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the US expects this deal very soon, a US official tells Reuters.
This is another major US concession to Iran, coming after Iran added the lifting of the US naval blockade as one of its 4 new demands earlier this week.
Under this deal however, Iran will still retain full sovereign control over the Strait, on both inbound traffic and supervision along Oman on outbound traffic, charge up to 7% fees on every ship's cargo, and ban US + Israeli + other "hostile" vessels.
Saudi Arabia may be the key because if they can’t make any money, then they can’t find their welfare state and all of their ambitious building projects that want to do.
My guess is Saudi Arabia is going to push for a deal for all of the GCC states because they have to get the economies of those countries back on track and they can’t do it with a forever war going on. If that means that they close their countries to the United States military and tell them to leave and make separate deals with Iran that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
The problem for Saudi and the GCC states is that all their money is trapped in the US. And the US has shown no compunction about stealing other nation's wealth when it suits them.
So the Saudis and GCC might tell the US to take a hike, but the Empire isn't going to give up without a fight.
I really really hope so, that the GCC states do act with unity in making workable + livable Agreements with Iran while ostracizing cancerous + deadly USrael.
I first read about Trump selling/exporting fuels from US in one of Larry Johnson's posts. Israel has been the recipient of US fuels. But shhh, US populace is not supposed to know this.
The war in the Mideast has also been a drain on US fuels--all those ships using diesel, and planes using jet fuel.
No-one on our side is thinking straight, are they, Ray? Another aspect is Israel's manpower crisis. Danny Davis did a great talk with Omar Bartov, an Israeli academic. He says that Israeli society is in a real mess right now with massive pressure being put on the orthodox Jews to serve in the IDF. They are refusing and rioting. I don't see much of a future for Israel in its current form.
On top of all this, there are stories coming out and I think I heard Larry Johnson talking about this about how terrible the food is that’s being sent to our sailors and troops in the Middle East.
On various recent programs, Larry Johnson has related a couple anecdotes from concerned mothers about soldiers and marines losing 20 to 30 pounds on recent deployments. He also claims to have received images of the awful food these servicemen are being served on deployment.
Commentators who think Iran desperately wants a halt in the war out of fear and weakness are completely misreading the situation--and history. This is an epochal collision between East and West--a West that has fatally weakened itself by centuries of decline where the main ones who have benefitted from Empire have been the superrich--and the Zionists.
The Peace Monger with Policy Tensor substacker, Anusar Farooqui. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_toHFwNuq4 In so many ways the Iran can stand toe-to-toe. Vulnerability theory and Balance of Resolve matrix are both in Iran's favour as well.
The have huge abundance of STEM graduates who have helped it to fight a C21st war against an opponent still stuck in the past.
The quantity and quality of US STEM talent has been in freefall for the past several years.
Unless there is a miracle that totally reverses and repairs current trends, the US STEM talent pool will never catch up with that of China, Russia, and Iran.
I deal with many of these up-jumped types every day. I estimate there are hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of them currently in the USA alone.
It's incredibly frustrating and even dangerous to have to deal with these types that think they are amazing and know everything when they actually know nothing.
I've come to the conclusion, wild, that there are two types of people in this world: Those with skin in the game and those without skin in the game. Too many crucial decisions are being made by the latter who will never - at least in the short term - experience that consequences of their actions.
The kicker: I liked his comment that every election in USA is now a referendum on standing with Israel; the pinnacle of their power was on 27/2 when N persuaded US to attack Iran, it might slide from now on - (if everyone recognises the power they have in their vote). It could be around America not Israel first. In the UK, an important part in the drubbing the Labour ruling party got in the local elections was the slogan “No votes for genocide”.
Well, the recent Democratic Senate primary election in Michigan certainly was a referendum on Israel.
Unfortunately, the winner is a communist Islamist that is scientifically incompetent. I know the last because running Michigan on 100% 'renewable' energy by 2030 is one of his policy planks.
My takeaway is that Americans can't win for losing in modern day elections.
1) That tears away the false narrative that these people like Kagan are concerned with geopolitics in any other sense than from the narrow standpoint of the interests of Jewish Nationalism. As I've been saying--and as people like Mac are now articulating--the American wars around the world are really the Anglo-Zionist wars for empire, with Jewish Nationalists embedded in the ruling class of that empire.
2) Wouldn't that be refreshing and healthy for Americans to have a regular referendum on that issue, rather than having it decided by bribing the political establishment?
I agree, but I would add that Russia and China are also likely helping Tehran with strategy. Weakening the U.S. military reduces our ability to support Ukraine or confront China, which serves both Moscow’s and Beijing’s interests.
It's 3-D chess against a team playing Clue.
OK Now - the statement many were waiting for
Clarification
https://www.isna.ir/news/1405051709922/%D8%B0%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%A7-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B4-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%AD%DB%8C%D8%AD-%D9%86%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%86%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
‘Until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened.
Correcting behavior means:
1. Never threaten Iran with any language nor insult the sanctities of this nation.
2. End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq permanently.
3. Lift the naval blockade and withdraw U.S. naval and air forces from the area surrounding Iran.
4. Pay the damages for the two aggressive wars imposed against Iran.
5. Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation.
6. Release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people unconditionally.
These are the demands of the Iranian people who have been relentlessly present in the squares and streets for 160 days.
The Supreme National Security Council will never back down; whether in war or in negotiations.‘
-----------------------
Wow, that makes the Treaty of Versailles look like a love letter!
2, 4, 5, 6!!!
Unconditional surrender.
I may be late to the party in posting this. Is it a real TACO?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/exit-narrative-begins-trumps-muted-response-hormuz-deal-suggests-declare-victory-leave
Yes, that was the buzz last night--good coverage.
I agree.
Saw that too, Me. Let's hope it's true this time.
I've (finally) learned to temper my expectations. Eventually this stupid war will end, but not on my timeline.
Will there be a nyet from Netanyahu?
Bessent saying the Strait will become 'irrelevant' is rather uninformed given all of the other commodities (helium, sulfuric acid, etc.) that sail through Hormuz and won't be transported via a pipeline.
I think they may now realize the Ben Gurian canal diversion is the better plan than more war. It's will take three years to construct, and it will give Israel the profits from the tolls. This delay allows for rebuilding and replenishing munitions and will eliminate Iran's leverage.
I don't see that as viable. Israel doesn't have three years and it will be very vulnerable to attack. It will be a straighter version of the SoH: a few drone hits on passing ships will block it.
You are probably right, Steg.
You could be right, Steg.
Thanks for that insight, Cos.
It's only my opinion, but I was reading earlier this week about this subject and the actions in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon are not only a part of the 7 Islamic nations to colonize, but this also secures more land to protect the BG waterway. These people disgust me.
"These people disgust me."
Totally.
Saudi A Paper Tigre Jerusalem Post
militarily, it cannot manage to 'get through the day,'" said Brig.-Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-904857
"This is more of a diplomatic maneuver intended to put pressure on the American administration," Prof. Nagel said. "The Saudis are disappointed with the conduct of the United States, especially in light of the shortages in missile and interceptor stockpiles that they identify in the West, and they are trying to signal that they will not remain alone in the campaign against the Shi'ite axis."
"The Saudis' problem is that they possess the most sophisticated equipment, aircraft, and intelligence, but they simply do not know how to use that power effectively on the ground."
I read or heard this many, many years ago. I can believe that it has not changed.
And they are lazy and are not prepared to do any actual fighting. They hire mercenaries and use poor brown people. As P J O' Rourke said when he was reporting the First Gulf War, he never saw a Saudi lift anything heavier than money.
This whole thing appears to be a variation of the “death by a thousand cuts”‘strategy and nobody in DC seems to get it. As has been pointed out here before; doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insane and when it comes to the life of the republic, it is suicidal. If you tell me that you know that the stove is hot and will burn your hand if you touch it and you go ahead and do it anyway, you are, with apologies to William Shakespeare, “ too cunning to be understood.” And this my dear friends is what passes for informed and intelligent leadership in the Trump administration.
U N B E L I V E A B L E
Thank you for this article and the reference article. Now it is clear as day how valuable to the newly assertive confidence of one of the parties in this war is Diplomacy. The Iranian leaders appear to be diligent, industrious, conscientious, and eagle-eyed in their unified field theory of relations with adversaries, but also these leaders have a keen sense of rational decorum in their communicated relations towards other nations representatives. Contrast Iranian leadership public presentation with hasbara perfidy and American PR---different as day from night
It makes you realize that the Iranians are the type of people we should be partnered with, not at war with. I think our own "leaders" are intimidated by the Iranians, and rightly so.
And even more so the Chinese. You've got to hand it to them; those folks have gamed it all out.
The Iranians are handling this brilliantly. Limited but incremental attacks that take out a few F35s in their hangars here, a radar there are the way to go. The Israelis are dying to nuke Teheran; not giving them the excuse is a form of exquisite torture. How will Trump react? Will Israel go for a false flag?
I’m beginning to think, after all these years we’ve spent our blood, treasure and technology war-making on Israel’s behalf, that the creation of this State was itself a false flag.
I think you're right. The creation of Israel has resulted in a state of permanent conflict in the Middle East. That's a recipe for making money for the Rothschilds and their ilk while resulting in perpetual misery for everyone else involved.
I'm starting to think that it was a colossal mistake. I spent time on Kibbutzim in Israel and used to love the place. I've evolved! I can't believe what has happened to the Israeli mindset. Maybe it was always like that but I never noticed!
"Maybe it was always like that but I never noticed!"
When you read about the founders of Zionist ideology and the early founders of the Israeli state you see that it really was always like "that." They are explicit about clearing the land for themselves.
True, Mark. We see what we want to see. In the 80s it was the hip thing for Brit youths to go on a kibbutz. For me Israel was Raid on Entebbe and Fiddler on the Roof for historical context. How naive I was!
Yes. And for an older generation it was the movie Exodus.
And that dashing Moshe Dayan with his sexy eye patch!
False flags are in Israel's DNA. I'm sure they are looking for just the right opportunity.
Very big if true. Just heard LJ saying that CENTCOM's intel group CAT has been "stood down", which he interprets as meaning no military action any time soon.
The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter
1h
BREAKING: US to lift its blockade on Iran once a deal is announced between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the US expects this deal very soon, a US official tells Reuters.
This is another major US concession to Iran, coming after Iran added the lifting of the US naval blockade as one of its 4 new demands earlier this week.
Under this deal however, Iran will still retain full sovereign control over the Strait, on both inbound traffic and supervision along Oman on outbound traffic, charge up to 7% fees on every ship's cargo, and ban US + Israeli + other "hostile" vessels.
Has Trump checked with Netanyahu, though.
My thoughts exactly!!
Under the Agreement GREATER ISRAEL shall continue forward
Israel shall simply pivot more to Lebanon and Palestine
then When Trump is ready
Find a reason to break any agreement with Iran
Very Likely
Trump is working harder on creating ability and timing to Break
the agreement - making sure there is language he can use -
Then working to Make an Agreement
Typical Trump half-assed backwards....creating windows of opportunity for skulduggery of an Agreement prior to "working to Make an Agreement"!
Sweden just seized a Russian shadow ship and will give it to Ukraine.
https://breakbulk.news/sweden-seizes-caffa-over-alleged-stolen-ukrainian-grain-exports/
The Duran mentioned it.
This will not end well.
These Scandis are getting way outside their lane. They're going to get smacked at some point.
And the Balts. The Balts have major Russian minorities that they're mistreating.
In Dominum et cum piscibus
"They're going to get smacked at some point"
Fingers crossed 💪🙏😲
Saudi Arabia is bleeding with the renewed Houthis blockade.
Israel wants a forever war with the U.S. bd Iran. And Gulf countries getting hurt is just icing on the cake.
U.S. is exporting diesel to help Europe, decreasing reserves.
Saudi Arabia may be the key because if they can’t make any money, then they can’t find their welfare state and all of their ambitious building projects that want to do.
My guess is Saudi Arabia is going to push for a deal for all of the GCC states because they have to get the economies of those countries back on track and they can’t do it with a forever war going on. If that means that they close their countries to the United States military and tell them to leave and make separate deals with Iran that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
The problem for Saudi and the GCC states is that all their money is trapped in the US. And the US has shown no compunction about stealing other nation's wealth when it suits them.
So the Saudis and GCC might tell the US to take a hike, but the Empire isn't going to give up without a fight.
I really really hope so, that the GCC states do act with unity in making workable + livable Agreements with Iran while ostracizing cancerous + deadly USrael.
I first read about Trump selling/exporting fuels from US in one of Larry Johnson's posts. Israel has been the recipient of US fuels. But shhh, US populace is not supposed to know this.
The war in the Mideast has also been a drain on US fuels--all those ships using diesel, and planes using jet fuel.
No-one on our side is thinking straight, are they, Ray? Another aspect is Israel's manpower crisis. Danny Davis did a great talk with Omar Bartov, an Israeli academic. He says that Israeli society is in a real mess right now with massive pressure being put on the orthodox Jews to serve in the IDF. They are refusing and rioting. I don't see much of a future for Israel in its current form.
How about in an annilhilated form?
It may come to that, Joanne.
I Feel badly for the US Sailors and Military
Just another case of no planning - no protection
TRUMP lept Trump wept
I'm pretty sure we will be hearing about this soon
and Sailors will demand to come home ( well I imagine )
WEATHER WARNING
120 Degrees in Saudi Arabia
Weather Warning:
A heatwave during the coming week over the eastern region and the eastern and southern parts of the Riyadh region.
Temperatures reaching 50 degrees Celsius.
https://x.com/SaudiNews50/status/2085803944794542506?s=20
On top of all this, there are stories coming out and I think I heard Larry Johnson talking about this about how terrible the food is that’s being sent to our sailors and troops in the Middle East.
This is absurd
That picture was gross! An utter embarrassment and punch in the gut to the members of our armed services to have to eat that slop.
Hesgeth dined in the officers' mess onboard and thought everyone ate officer- standard food.
On various recent programs, Larry Johnson has related a couple anecdotes from concerned mothers about soldiers and marines losing 20 to 30 pounds on recent deployments. He also claims to have received images of the awful food these servicemen are being served on deployment.
Horrible!!
Commentators who think Iran desperately wants a halt in the war out of fear and weakness are completely misreading the situation--and history. This is an epochal collision between East and West--a West that has fatally weakened itself by centuries of decline where the main ones who have benefitted from Empire have been the superrich--and the Zionists.
The Peace Monger with Policy Tensor substacker, Anusar Farooqui. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_toHFwNuq4 In so many ways the Iran can stand toe-to-toe. Vulnerability theory and Balance of Resolve matrix are both in Iran's favour as well.
The have huge abundance of STEM graduates who have helped it to fight a C21st war against an opponent still stuck in the past.
Where’s that vaunted British navy and France’s Royale in the Black Sea? Ooops! That was ca 1856!
The quantity and quality of US STEM talent has been in freefall for the past several years.
Unless there is a miracle that totally reverses and repairs current trends, the US STEM talent pool will never catch up with that of China, Russia, and Iran.
This case of fraud and plagiarism has been rocking the UK right now. It shows how rotten our education system is. While the Russians, Iranians and Chinese concentrate on the hard sciences, we tolerate this garbage. The guy resigned - and used AI to write his resignation letter. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cambridges-black-time-travelling-professor-and-his-many-superhuman-feats
I deal with many of these up-jumped types every day. I estimate there are hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of them currently in the USA alone.
It's incredibly frustrating and even dangerous to have to deal with these types that think they are amazing and know everything when they actually know nothing.
I've come to the conclusion, wild, that there are two types of people in this world: Those with skin in the game and those without skin in the game. Too many crucial decisions are being made by the latter who will never - at least in the short term - experience that consequences of their actions.
The ‘price’ of financialization.
Increasingly, aspiring graduates will look East
Go East, young man!
-Chou Yuen Greeley
Didn't Kagan say that in 1991?
Can't say for sure, but a lot of what he has said was so wrong that one never knew which side of his mouth to believe.
The kicker: I liked his comment that every election in USA is now a referendum on standing with Israel; the pinnacle of their power was on 27/2 when N persuaded US to attack Iran, it might slide from now on - (if everyone recognises the power they have in their vote). It could be around America not Israel first. In the UK, an important part in the drubbing the Labour ruling party got in the local elections was the slogan “No votes for genocide”.
Well, the recent Democratic Senate primary election in Michigan certainly was a referendum on Israel.
Unfortunately, the winner is a communist Islamist that is scientifically incompetent. I know the last because running Michigan on 100% 'renewable' energy by 2030 is one of his policy planks.
My takeaway is that Americans can't win for losing in modern day elections.
"a referendum on standing with Israel"
Two comments.
1) That tears away the false narrative that these people like Kagan are concerned with geopolitics in any other sense than from the narrow standpoint of the interests of Jewish Nationalism. As I've been saying--and as people like Mac are now articulating--the American wars around the world are really the Anglo-Zionist wars for empire, with Jewish Nationalists embedded in the ruling class of that empire.
2) Wouldn't that be refreshing and healthy for Americans to have a regular referendum on that issue, rather than having it decided by bribing the political establishment?