2025 Is Shaping Up To Be A Wild One
As if winding up the forever wars, taking control of our borders, reshaping public life away from DEI on multiple fronts, taking control of the federal government and reshaping major societal and business institutions (education and big business) weren’t enough, Trump will be facing a world in economic and political turmoil that would have happened even without the forever wars. Here’s an impressionistic take on the start of 2025, which is already looking like it will be a wild ride.
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
Multipolarity will likely be very far advanced by the end of 2025.
Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent
These past few weeks have been momentous:
- The Biden pre-emptive pardons made a mockery of the rule of law
- The Trump Greenland/Canada/Panama tirades blew up the belief that the US is a kind and accidental hegemon
- The threat of seizure of Colombia’s assets re-enforced what was already known: that US assets are safe depending on who owns them, which passport the owners hold, and whether that country is not in the crosshairs of the US state department.
- Deepseek undermined the belief in US tech supremacy and unassailable moats.
***
As many people have pointed out, in the list of important January events, I completely forgot:
- the LA fires, the USD 200bn+ of damage, and the reveal of Californian bureaucratic incompetence
- the taking down of the Chinese great internet fire-wall which allowed users from anywhere to sign up to Douyin (Chinese TikTok) and Xiaohongshu, suddenly triggering exchanges between Chinese people and people all over the globe.
- the launch of the Trump and Melania meme coins
- the non-imposition of tariffs on day one of the Trump presidency
3:27 AM · Jan 27, 2025
Not content with all the above, Trump IS talking up his tariff plans again. More below.
Yesterday morning:
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
Chip sector getting absolutely hosed across the board. And most Americans are still asleep.
“Nice multi-billion dollar bubble sector propped up by closely guarded IP. Would be a pity if somebody EXPROPRIATED IT ENTIRELY!”
Kuppy @hkuppy
Throughout my career, any industry that China enters, they take margins to zero and steal all the market share. From solar panels to autos, they’re unstoppable. Now they’ve set their sights on semis (which are a pretty shitty business in the best of times).
Meanwhile, Wall St is absolutely convinced that this cycle is somehow secular instead of cyclical, and that China is still behind in the tech. Neither will be true. Semis have the most insane down cycles, and this time won’t be different. Additionally, if China can leapfrog in AI, they can do the same in chips.
Leapfrog in chips? Hold that thought!
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
"If DeepSeek does indeed crash the entire American AI industry — and possibly even the stock market — it will be because bureaucrats in DC tried to control the technology sector in ill-advised ways."
But that’s only about 10% of Nvidia’s market cap. Long way down. Meanwhile …
JUST IN - Volkswagen is prepared to let Chinese electric carmakers take over production lines in its struggling factories — Telegraph
Remember Nordstream!
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
Idiot neocons: “Destroying Europe’s economy will increase America’s relative power.”
Gladden Pappin @gjpappin
It’s going to be easy for Washington to have contempt for Europe these days, given EU leadership. But policymaking has to occur at a more strategic level.
A weak Europe won’t be a better vassal, but rather a sitting duck—defensively, economically, socially, geopolitically.
Remember tariffs and the Chinese leapfrogging in the chip sector, above? Trump has a plan:
BREAKING: President Trump announces the U.S. will be placing tariffs on all semi-conductors and pharmaceuticals imported from Taiwan in the very near future.
https://x.com/i/status/1884023740826280053
Ask yourself, if you were Taiwan would you ship all your chip factories to the US or … do a deal with China? What kind of sweet deal could Xi offer Taiwan if it meant China becoming the world’s top semiconductor country? And, of course, he’ll be telling his counterpart on Taiwan: Take the mirror test—look in a mirror and ask yourself, Am I American or Chinese?
More leapfrogging?
Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova
Huge 
The Chinese company Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co. has surpassed Elon Musk and Starlink in terms of transmitting satellite data to Earth. This enables improvements in space, including remote sensing of the Earth's surface, navigation and 6G mobile communication.
Xi must be having a chuckle just about now:
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
It looks like China decided to go “mask off” on Week 1 of the Trump administration.
PP quotes, "If DeepSeek does indeed crash the entire American AI industry — and possibly even the stock market — it will be because bureaucrats in DC tried to control the technology sector in ill-advised ways."
There was no way for the US to offshore all other manufacturing, to de-industrialize in favor of financializing the economy, these past thirty years while holding some high-value manufacturing harmless and in-house.
Manufacturing ecosystems don't work that way; to manufacture big widgets you need many small widgets to hand at the right price and volume and quality.
I think a few too many people, including PP, want to blame our current troubles on recent US export controls, rather than on thirty years of de-industrialization and financialization in all Western economies. And it was bought into by all right-thinking people in white-collar jobs in those economies enjoying a high standard of living while arguing about green energy and gay rights. Supranational moneymen call the shots, and they were satisfied with China becoming the workshop to the world. We all enjoyed it while it lasted. America did not "do this" to Europeans unilaterally just now.
With the current President of Taiwan this won’t happen: “ Ask yourself, if you were Taiwan would you ship all your chip factories to the US or … do a deal with China?”
China is offering huge salaries to recruit Taiwan Engineers and Scientists.
The growth of Taiwan foundries issue to US laws and regulations that incentivize outsourcing. Outsourcing capital costs increases the return on capital for U.S. public companies, giving a higher stock price.
We will see what Trump does to rebuild us industry. Intel has done a great job using dei to commit suicide, reminds me of Boeing.
Trump is taking control of federal spending, mind blowing “White House Orders Pause of Federal Financial-Assistance Programs.”
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/baptism-of-fire-tuesday-january-28?