Evening Roundup 6/22/25
The world is a target rich environment for Trump. Another day, another target. One day it’s Iran, next day it’s … Thomas Massie? Rand Paul?
Curt Mills @CurtMills
2h
Openly assailing your antiwar flank is probably not the strongest way to prove there is no MAGA dissent over the Iran War
There’s a fair amount of argumentation out there on the interwebs suggesting that this whole attack on Iran was carefully choreographed, with advance notice to Iran. The idea is that this bit of theater will provide a way for the US and Israel to back out of the confrontation with Iran. For reasons outlined earlier today I’m not buying that. We’ll see. It appears to be true, based on overhead surveillance photos, that Fordow was evacuated several days ago, and it also appears that the entrances were covered in earth. Prudent prep or advance notice? I can’t say.
Others are speculating that there never were any B2s over Fordow and no MOPs dropped—it was all sub-launched Tomahawks. Again, this would fit in with a sort of choreographed, theatrical affair. Balanced against that, the Iranians are saying that they know where the B2s came from and the Saudis are saying they asked the US to stay out of their air space and to stay away from Bushehr (to near the Persian Gulf, possible contamination).
Further, the Iranians are continuing their strikes on Israel—and vice versa—and seem serious about doing some sort of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But my bottom line is really that there have been too many betrayals and too many persons killed in Iran for this to be just theater. Perhaps more will emerge from the meeting in Moscow between the Iranian foreign minister and Putin. Lastly, it seems clear that this attack was planned from the very beginning of Trump 2.0—short of Iranian disarmament. This is all part of the existential war to maintain Anglo-Zionist global hegemony. I don’t think that’s about to end soon.
That’s my argument. Here’s Trita Parsi’s:
Trita Parsi @tparsi
Rest assured: Trump likely allowed Israel to drag the US into a long war, even though its intensity may vary.
There is no evidence yet that the Iranian nuclear program has been entirely destroyed. No signs yet of leaking radiation from Fordo, which suggests that the Iranians had already removed their uranium stockpile (which they said they had done). As a result, the program has at best been set back, but certainly not destroyed, while dramatically increasing Tehran's determination to achieve nuclear deterrence.
This does not render a scenario in which the Iranians respond to yesterday's attack with strikes against emptied American bases in the region (like in 2020) unlikely, but it renders it unlikely to be stable.
Meaning, even if Trump wants to call it quits after a more or less symbolic Iranian retaliation, the Israelis will pressure him to continue to bomb Iran because the nuclear program actually hasn't been destroyed.
And even if it gets destroyed, they will pressure him to go after Iran's missile program. And then Iran's conventional military forces, and so forth. And we have seen that Trump is, at the end of the day, quite vulnerable to Israeli pressure.
He is capable of saying no to the Israelis - unlike Biden - but he has not shown an impressive capacity to sustain a no to the Israelis.
As a result, while Trump may have genuinely envisioned a one-and-done, Israel appears to have succeeded in trapping him in a long, if not a forever, war.
12:41 PM · Jun 22, 2025
Worst possible scenario.
Moving on. Very briefly, reporting is emerging of the Iranian targets in Israel, beyond the videos we’ve seen from Haifa and Tel Aviv. For example (follow links for photos and videos):
Arya - آریا @AryJeay
| Iran destroyed the top-secret biological weapons center in Ness Ziona, 20 km from Tel Aviv
What is this center?
• It is a highly classified military facility involved in biological and chemical weapons, as well as military research.
• The institute is linked to biological warfare and even plots involving assassinations using toxic substances in Iran & elsewhere.
• According to some unofficial reports, this institute is considered part of Israel’s hidden arsenal of unconventional weapons.
| According to preliminary reports, one impact was visually seen around Israel’s Soreq nuclear center. [10 km from Tel Aviv]
Awaiting for more info.
File under “target acquisition”—the unseen war:
DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics
4h
Hackers have successfully breached over 400 Israeli military and industrial targets, leaking sensitive information and maps.
The exposed files include:
Blueprints and satellite images of military infrastructure
Energy facility layouts
Sensitive SCADA (industrial control and monitoring) systems
Among the revealed data:
Strategic maps of sites near Ashkelon, Dimona, and IDF logistical hubs
Security vulnerabilities tied to surveillance and environmental monitoring systems
This is a severe intelligence breach.
However, the big picture remains the Money War, and Will Schryver gets that:
Will Schryver @imetatronink
A few days back, Trump insisted that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
Now Trump has started a war with Iran, who is imposing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Inflation will spike accordingly.
I guess this is what you call "stable genius".
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
7h
In fact, according to JP Morgan estimates, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130/barrel.
This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%.
Philip Pilkington believes that 5% estimate is low. However, he focuses on implications for the US debt crisis and the effect this will have on the debt service load. The “smart” money has been predicting that US dollar hegemony would remain for decades, as the US would be flooded with capital as a safe haven, but that hasn’t happened. It’s all looking dicier:
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
Oh man… it’s really happening. The Western economies cannot take this. 10y Treasuries are already yielding 4.7%. A blast of inflation and that could hit 7-8%. Maybe more. USD no longer safe haven either. It could take an almighty beating.
The markets are starting to realise what is going on… next week will be interesting.
Imo this is an optimistic assessment. But 5% CPI means UST yields start going to bankruptcy levels.
The last word today goes to an Israeli. I picked this up at the end of a guest post at Larry Johnson’s blog today:
Trump has decided to attack Iran – this will have consequences – for the whole world?
The problem in the Middle East is Israel
We have written extensively about Israel as a problem, especially in our five-part series “Israel – from victim to perpetrator to victim – a back and forth for 80 years”.
But let’s ask an Israeli, Gideon Levy, who recently said in a speech what no one dares to say and is never heard in the West:
“If we are the chosen people, who are you to tell us what to do?
Who are you?
Who is the international community to tell us what to do?
International law.
Wonderful thing.
It doesn’t apply on us.
It applies on any other place on earth, not on Israel.
Because we are the chosen people, don’t you understand it?
The second very deep rooted value is obviously the value of we, the victims, not only the biggest victims, but the only victims around.
I know many occupations which were longer than Israeli occupation than the Israeli occupations somewhere even more brutal, even though it’s getting harder and harder to be more brutal than the Israel occupation.
I don’t recall one occupation which the occupier presenting itself as the victim.
Not only the victim, the only victim.
We have to phrase here, we have to quote here the late Golda Meir, whom I quoted also last time, I know, but it is so unforgettable, I have to use it again.
She once said that we will never forgive the Arabs for forcing us to kill their children .
We are the victims.
We are forced to kill their children.
Poor us.
And as the victim and the only victim in history, again, it enable us the rights to do whatever we want, and nobody is going to tell us what to do, because we are the only victims.
To this, there is a third, very deep-rooted value, and this is the very deep belief again, everyone will deny it, but if you scratch under the skin of almost every Israeli, you’ll find it there.
The Palestinians are not equal human beings like us.
They are not like us.
They don’t love their children like us.
They don’t love life like us.
They were born to kill.
They are cruel.
They are sadists, they have no values, no manners.
Look how they kill us.
This is very, very deep rooted in Israeli society, and maybe that’s the key issue.
Because as long as this continues, nothing will move, as long as most of Israelis don’t perceive the Palestinians as equal human beings, we are so much better than them.
We are so much developed than them.
And we are so much human than them.
As long as this is the case, all our dreams and we have some dreams and I’ll get to them, all our dreams will never become true as long as this core issue will not change.”
Brodtgaard @Brodtgaard21329
Jun 20
Gideon Levy is being ironic in his speech. His tone and the context of his statements suggest that he is critiquing the Israeli narrative of being the "chosen people" and the "only victims," which he argues justifies actions against Palestinians and disregards international law. By quoting Golda Meir's statement that "We will never forgive Arabs for forcing us to kill their children," Levy is highlighting the absurdity and moral bankruptcy of such a perspective, using irony to expose the flawed reasoning behind it. His long-standing role as a critic of Israeli policies further supports the interpretation that his comments are intended to challenge and provoke thought about the dominant narratives within Israeli society.
Zlatti71 @Zlatti_71
 Rubio is unhappy that Araghchi is going to Russia and not to negotiate with the US.
Nothing cryptic about the title--I forgot to pick one. I'll change that.