I’m going to begin with Mario Nawfal’s summary of an interview with Jonathan Swan. Swan is the co-author with Maggie Haberman of Regime Change. I’ll also link to the video, which is somewhat less than half an hour. What needs to be mentioned, and what you won’t see in the summary, is this. Swan maintains that Trump hasn’t gone mad or demented. He’s the same old Trump from Trump 1.0, just quite a bit older, which all that entails—and surrounded by a greater percentage of Yes-Men. As many of us have surmised, 2024 was, in Trump’s mind, his great victory. Now he doesn’t really care that much about the GOP—or, at least, not nearly as much as his close advisers wish he’d care. Instead, Trump 2.0 is all about Trump’s vision of himself as a great world ruler—in a very 19th century sense of throwing his weight around globally.

Swan also maintains that people don’t understand sufficiently the degree to which Trump exercises agency. Vance and the military brass, he maintains, pushed back against Trump’s Iran war decision—Trump was fully briefed on munition shortages before the war, but convinced himself that Iran would collapse over a long weekend. In this regard Swan explicitly downplays Netanyahu’s influence, but I’m not as sure. After all, by all accounts Netanyahu’s pitch was precisely that Iran would fold like a cheap suit—and that’s the view that Swan says Trump used to justify his plunge into a geopolitical debacle.

Anyway, here we go:

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

20h

 Jonathan Swan: Trump wants out of this war

If Trump really believed he had won, he wouldn’t have quietly sent Vance, Witkoff and Kushner to negotiate an exit.

That’s what Jonathan Swan watches; actions, not statements. The public line is total victory. The behaviour says a man looking for a door.

Reminder: Xi Jinping is due in DC on September 24, and the latest story on Xi is this: Xi announced at the BRICS meeting that China is ready to help mediate Trump’s war on Iran.

Swan also demolishes the story that Trump was blindsided by the munitions shortages. Trump was briefed repeatedly, including by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs before the war. Trump simply assumed it wouldn’t matter, because Iran would fold in days.

That belief came from his gut. The intelligence said otherwise.

On the nuclear talk, Swan has no reporting that Trump has raised it in a single national security meeting. And this is a president with almost no unexpressed thoughts.

What actually changed [in Trump 2.0 from Trump 1.0] is the room around Trump. In the first term, senior officials believed their job was protecting the country from him. Those people no longer exist.

Then there’s the detail about Netanyahu walking into the Situation Room with a presentation to sell Trump the war. And the Netanyahu aide who left a meeting telling colleagues there was an 80% chance he’d join it.

Swan’s conclusion is that nobody close to Trump thinks he wants to escalate.

Which puts the next move entirely in Tehran’s hands.

That last line brings to mind Yemen. The last we heard about the US blockade was something like this. This alone was a major escalation and it bears repeating that near misses can cause damage and casualties:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

9h

 Officials told the WSJ that Iran came very close to hitting a US aircraft carrier days ago but failed

They say that recent Iranian ballistic missile attacks—which targeted a U.S. aircraft carrier and other warships—failed, but included instances where missiles came very close to hitting their targets.

Washington is also concerned that Chinese images may help Iran to start tracking U.S. naval forces

And the Houthi offensive we’ve been covering appears to be the latest in the “next moves” that have been in Iran’s hands for weeks now. The US military brass warned Trump about munitions shortages. Those shortages have forced Trump to turn down Saudi begging—twice in one day, on Thursday—for help against the Houthis. Pakistan has also thought better of helping the hapless Saudis:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

59m

BREAKING: Pakistan has rejected Saudi Arabia’s request to join the fight against Yemen’s Houthis under the Mecca Defense Treaty, with Islamabad arguing the pact “doesn’t cover a pre-existing condition” such as the Yemen war, applies only to wars that began after it was signed, and only to state actors.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said “there is no such thing under discussion right now” when asked how Islamabad would meet its obligations under the accord signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, adding there are no plans to expand the alliance. Turkey, the third signatory, has not moved either.

Saudi Arabia has now been refused by Trump twice and by Pakistan under the pact it signed for exactly this, with the Houthis holding Bab el-Mandeb and the East-West pipeline shut.

The result:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

19h

BREAKING:  The Saudi-backed forces have started sime evacuation in the city of Marib

The Houthi are advancing towards the city

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

6h

Saudi Arabia had to shut down the East-West Pipeline for export oil through the Red Sea. The Houthis also acquired new territory to tighten the blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Saudi Arabia’s attack on Yemen was a great mistake, which also transforms the Iran War.

I’ll finish with a h/t to commenter Robin Whittle. This post, which updates the Yemen situation, plays right into Swan’s reference to the next move being in Iran’s hands:

𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐙 @SMO_VZ

HOUTHIS : The New PLAYER at the WORLD Power Table !

The Houthis are no longer a coastal nuisance. In a single day they completed a decade-long project: they now sit on both banks of the Bab el-Mandeb and on the island that splits the strait in two.

On Thursday, Ansar Allah fighters entered Mocha, the historic Red Sea port 80 kilometres from the strait. Pro-Saudi units pulled out of Mocha, Khays and Al-Hawjah in hours. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti of the Houthi political bureau announced that three brigades had surrendered with their equipment. By Friday the group had taken Dhubab on the mainland and Perim (Mayun), the 13-square-kilometre volcanic island that divides the shipping channel.

Government sources also reported the loss of Zukur and the Hanish islands. Iranian Al-Alam and Qatari Al-Arabi were already broadcasting the result as fact. The Houthis now physically control the southern gate of the Red Sea.

This did not happen with the same rockets and pickup trucks that failed to take the coast in 2015–18. Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources told Reuters the lightning advance was directed with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps guidance. Senior IRGC officers, including figures linked to Quds Force commander Abdolreza Shahlaei, had travelled to Yemen in recent weeks.

Iran had instructed the Houthis to escalate against Saudi Arabia and promised more funding, weapons and officers. Hundreds of IRGC personnel are reported to be inside Yemen working with Houthi units. New missile and drone systems, assembled from smuggled components and built with Iranian technical help, gave the group the range and precision to suppress government positions and then move by boat onto the islands.

The same pipeline that once delivered basic anti-ship missiles now delivers upgraded seekers, longer-range ballistic systems and loitering munitions. Advisors from the IRGC and, earlier, Hezbollah have turned a militia into a force that can seize and hold maritime terrain.

The timing is not accidental. The Strait of Hormuz is already effectively closed by the war with Iran. Saudi Arabia had shifted the bulk of its exports to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. In late July the Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi shipping.

August loadings through Yanbu fell to roughly 2.5 million barrels per day from 4.3 million in June; overall Saudi exports dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2017. Tankers began running “dark,” AIS off, or shuttling north to Egypt’s SUMED pipeline and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.

That workaround adds weeks and cost. The world’s largest oil exporter has lost one outlet and is watching the second one close.

Houthi statements are carefully drafted. Navigation, they say, remains free for everyone except Saudi and Israeli vessels. Chinese tankers continue to transit; Beijing reached a direct understanding in the summer. Other operators are being pressed, quietly, to pay for safe passage. Control of Mocha, Dhubab and Perim turns that pressure from a threat into a toll booth.

The group already extracts revenue from fuel smuggling and port fees on the Yemeni coast. A chokehold on a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil gives them leverage to demand a share of Saudi oil and gas proceeds—whether through formal “protection” arrangements, recognition and reconstruction money, or simply by making the alternative so expensive that Riyadh prefers to negotiate.

The financial incentive is immediate: every extra dollar on Brent and every delayed cargo increases the value of the concession they can extract.

The larger alignment is visible even if it remains unstated. Iran and the Houthis now squeeze Saudi Arabia from two directions. If Iranian forces or their allies ever moved against the Eastern Province—the oil-rich northeast [in Saudi Arabia, with majority Shiite population]—the Houthis would already hold the western exit. A joint force is not a timetable; it is a geometry. The Houthis do not need to occupy Dhahran.

They only need to keep Yanbu and the Bab el-Mandeb closed while Tehran keeps Hormuz closed. The two choke points together put roughly a third of global seaborne oil under hostile control. High prices and disrupted Saudi cash flow serve both partners.

The Houthis collect the local rents; Iran collects the strategic ones.

On 8 September the campaign reached the kingdom itself. Missiles and drones hit Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran. Seventy-three people were wounded; oil facilities burned. Riyadh answered with daily air strikes.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump twice in one day asking for American aircraft. The answer was no. Washington already has a war with Iran and will not open a second front. Instead it sent Admiral Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, to coordinate intelligence and targeting support.

Saudi jets continue to fly; the Houthis continue to hold the coast.

Brent settled at $107.63 on 10 September after a six-percent jump in a single session. Russia’s budget was written against Urals at $59 and an August average of $67.11. September at these Brent levels is a direct transfer into a treasury already strained by attacks on its own refineries.

The same “ragtag militia” that was supposed to be finished in a few months ten years ago now holds a chokehold on a quarter of the world’s oil and is being paid, in cash and in strategic space, for doing so.

There is still no coherent Western answer. The Houthis have the weapons, the advisors, the islands and the incentive.

They will keep the strait expensive until someone either pays them or removes them.

Neither option is on the table today.

Trump says the war will end immediately after the midterms. That’s so ridiculous it’s not even worth a laugh. Iran has so many ways to escalate, and they will. Xi Jinping coming to DC later this month could be Trump’s last remaining lifeline.

Today I saw a brief video outtake featuring Batya Ungar-Sargon. For those not familiar with her, …

Batya Ungar-Sargon is an American journalist and author who served as the opinion editor of The Forward and later worked as deputy opinion editor of Newsweek. She is the author of two books which address class consciousness and working class-related issues and one that deals with American Jews and the left.

…

In 2017, Ungar-Sargon became the opinion editor at The Forward. During her tenure, she faced criticism from some commentators on the political left, who accused her of weaponizing claims of antisemitism in a politically charged manner and of displaying a right-wing and Zionist editorial stance.^[10][11] Ungar-Sargon later contributed to various publications, including among others the Daily Beast, The Free Press, Foreign Policy, the Los Angeles Times, The New Republic, the New York Review of Books, the New York Times, Tablet, and the Washington Post.^[12][13][14] She also appeared on various political shows including on the Brian Lehrer Show, MSNBC, NBC, and NPR, among other media outlets.^[15][16] She later became deputy opinion editor of Newsweek,^[17] and co-host of the podcast The Debate.

You get the idea. She’s an ardent Zionist. But that’s not exactly my concern, per se. The video outtake I watched featured Ungar-Sargon taking issue with people who refer to the “Jewish Faith” or some such thing. Her contention is that being Jewish is not about faith, and I agree with her rejection of framing Jewishness in traditional Christian categories. She maintains that people who do that—and she only cites two Muslims—are using that position as a subterfuge for their anti-Semitism. That’s her real agenda—to argue that criticism of Israel/Zionism is anti-Semitism, even if such critics claim to “revere” the “Jewish Faith”. In presenting this position, however, she raises fascinating issues of what faith and religion really are. So, I’ll provide a transcript of the video, but if you watch the video you’ll see how intense she is about all this. To use the current jargon, this issue is really existential for her:

Chris Menahan @infolibnews

Batya Ungar-Sargon: “Most Jews are not people of faith, they don’t believe in God, their faith is their connection to other Jews.”

Translation: their race *is* their faith.

Chris Menahan @infolibnews

 The Anti-Defamation League and a host of major Jewish groups are lobbying California to pass a bill to classify Jews as a race/ethnicity and “not just a faith.”

These groups for decades have been insisting that race doesn’t exist and is just a social construct, but now they’re leading the charge for Jews to be classified as a race to secure “the right amount of resources” for their people.

Here’s the transcript:

For a lotta American Jews--this is really important. You’ll hear a lotta people like Zohran Mamdani and Abdul el-Sayed say: ‘Well, I revere the Jewish faith. I just have a problem with Israel.’ To prove that they’re not anti-Semitic, right? The problem with that is, is that most Jews are not people of faith. They don’t believe in God. Their faith is their connection to other Jews. That is their faith! It’s a deep spiritual and historical and cultural connection to other Jews and to their ancestral homeland in the Middle East. That is their faith! That is their religion! Their Zionism is a *huge* part of what animates them as Jews.

It’s important to state that Ungar-Sargon doesn’t speak for all Jews, nor does she actually claim to. However, I take her at her word that she does speak for “a lotta” or even “most” Jews. And that what she says is “really important.” And what she’s saying, and what she says represents the view of “a lotta” or even “most” Jews, is that for Jews God is optional. You can be a good Jew and an atheist. But what you cannot lack if you’re a good Jew is “a deep spiritual and historical and cultural connection to other Jews and to their ancestral homeland in the Middle East.”

Now, you’ll see that Ungar-Sargon is a bit ambiguous about that faith/religion dichotomy. Initially, she appears to deny that Jews are, per se, “people of faith”—at all. But then she goes on to say that Jews do have a faith/religion (which she conflates). Their faith/religion—to paraphrase—is in being Jewish. Just that. If that’s “faith”, then it’s faith in the sense of “subjective conviction” or subjective certitude. But not reasoned belief.

Now, here is where I think my distinction between faith and religion is useful. On the one hand, I agree that Judaism is not a “faith” in the sense of a reasoned belief—in the way that Christian faith is a reasoned belief in the historical Jesus of Nazareth “and him risen”. As Paul says, if Christ isn’t risen, then we Christians are the most pitiful of men. On the other hand, I agree with her that being Jewish is a religion, in the sense of an attachment to a way of life that communicates meaning to life—what Ungar-Sargon describes as “a deep spiritual and historical and cultural connection to other Jews and to their ancestral homeland in the Middle East.” That’s not a reasoned belief, but it is an attachment to a community. We can avoid the confusion of the usual Judeo-Christian narrative by agreeing with Ungar-Sargon that being Jewish is not a faith in the proper Christian sense of the word, but it is in the general sense a “religion.” And we can see from this that many who may claim a “Christian Faith” are actually involved in a religion of some sort, or perhaps a cult.

Here’s another way to look at that distinction. This is my translation of the third chapter of Paul, writing to the young church in Philippi. Pay attention to Paul’s use of the word “flesh”:

2 Beware of those dogs, beware of the evil doers, beware of the mutilation! 3 We are the circumcision, we who worship God in spirit, glorying in Christ Jesus rather than putting our trust in the flesh,[1] 4 although I have reason for confidence in the flesh, as well. If anyone else thinks they have reason for confidence in the flesh, I have better reasons! 5 I was circumcised on the eighth day, from the people of Israel, the tribe of Benjamin, a Hebrew from Hebrews, a Pharisee with regard to the Torah, 6 a zealous persecutor of the church, blameless as to righteousness under the Torah. 7 But whatever I had gained from all this, I considered it loss for the sake of Christ. 8 In fact, I consider everything to be loss for the sake of the surpassing greatness of knowing Christ Jesus my Lord. For his sake I’ve cast everything aside and regard it as so much rubbish so that I’ll gain Christ 9 and be found in him, having no righteousness of my own based on observance of the Torah but only that righteousness which comes through faith in Christ, the righteousness that comes from God and which is based on faith. 10 My goal is to know him and the power of his resurrection, to understand the fellowship of his sufferings and become conformed to his death[2] 11 in the hope of somehow attaining resurrection from the dead.

When Paul speaks of “the flesh” he’s referring not merely to circumcision and not only to Torah observance. He’s referring to the entirety of the Jewish way of life (recall Paul’s challenge to Peter at Antioch on precisely this point, as recounted in the letter to the church in Galatia). This is precisely what Ungar-Sargon terms the religion of Jews: a spiritual and cultural attachment—but which Paul says he regards as “so much rubbish” for the sake of the righteousness that comes through faith in Christ. Here we see the distinction between faith and religion.

I want to quote in this regard an excerpt from an article by N. T. Wright, who comments on that passage, above. The article is 14 pages of close reasoning, but I’ll present the relevant portion—with the caveat that I don’t necessarily agree with everything that Wright says in this article. Wright’s central point is that Paul, in his letter to the church in Philippi, is subtly challenging and warning against the Caesar cult, and that Paul does this by comparing Jews who reject the Christ to people who engage in the Caesar cult. As you read, note how much of what Ungar-Sargon says about the religion of being Jewish resonates with what Paul, and Wright, refer to as “the flesh”. Also as “blood and soil.”

Paul’s Gospel and Caesar’s Empire

If Paul’s answer to Caesar is the empire of Jesus, what is an empire under the rule of this new lord? How does Paul’s gospel line up with Caesar’s empire?

But if chapter 3 [of Philippians] thus concludes with such a clear evocation of, and challenge to, imperial ideology and eschatology, how does this fit with the earlier parts of the chapter [above], for so long simply read as just another Pauline outburst against Jews in general or Jewish Christians in particular (so-called; we must never tire of reminding ourselves that Paul was himself a Jewish Christian)?

The solution I propose is that Paul, for neither the first nor the last time, has Judaism and paganism—particularly, in this case, the Caesar-cult—simultaneously in mind, and is here using warnings against the former (Judaism) as a code for warnings against the latter (paganism). Paul’s main concern here, I suggest, … is to warn them against the Caesar-cult, and the entire panoply of pagan empire; but his method of warning them, and of encouraging them to take a stand for the counter-empire of Jesus, is given for the most part in code. He tells them his own story, the story of how he had abandoned his status and privileges [in his Jewish life] in order to find the true status and privilege of [life] in Christ, and encourages them to imitate him. Read this way, the chapter gains both in coherence and in subtlety.

…

What, then, is Paul saying in verses 2-11? ...

I believe Paul intended the first level of meaning of verses 2-6 to be about Jews in general, rather than specifically about Jewish Christians. Of course, the Galatian “agitators” would have come into the frame as well, but as a subset of a larger group: the dogs, the evil workers, the mutilation people. The first two of these epithets could have applied to pagans, of course, not least Cynics, as some have suggested, but the third, though clearly a pagan term, by generating the counter-assertion of verse 3, shows that it is Jews who are in mind. Yes, but Jews seen now as a form of paganism.

Or, in my preferred terminology, Jews who are involved in a religion, rather than the faith which Paul proclaims.

The shock which greets such an announcement in our contemporary world should be blunted by two compelling factors. First, this is by no means the only time where Paul makes exactly this move. In Galatians 4.1-11, in line with the letter as a whole, he warns the young church that if they submit to circumcision they will not only not escape finally from the paganism they have rejected in becoming Christians, but will actually be returning to it in a subtler form. They will be returning to the realm of the flesh, of the principalities and powers. In Colossians 2, Paul warns the young church, not indeed against an actual syncretism or threatening new religion, but against Judaism described in terms of paganism.19 From Paul’s Christian point of view, those Jews who do not embrace Jesus as their Messiah are thereby embracing instead an identity marked out by blood and soil, by ancestry and territory, in other words, by the “flesh”. They are therefore subject to the same critique as paganism.

...

Third, neither the recognition that Paul’s main target was paganism, and the Caesar-cult in particular, nor the equal recognition that he remained a throughly Jewish thinker, should blind us for a moment to the fact that Paul still expressed a thorough critique of non-messianic Judaism. Paul remains at this point on the map of second-temple Judaism: believing that God had acted to remodel the covenant people necessarily entailed believing that those who refused to join this remodelled people were missing out on God’s eschatological purpose. As post-holocaust thinkers we will of course be careful how we say all this. As historians of the first century, we will recognise that it must be said. As Pauline theologians we will recognise that it contains no shadow, no hint, of anything that can be called anti-Judaism, still less anti-semitism.

To conclude:

Perhaps the most significant aspect of what’s happening in Yemen right now is that MBS pleaded for Trump’s help yesterday—and was turned down:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

4h

BREAKING: Saudi Crown Prince MBS called Trump twice on Thursday strongly urging him to launch US strikes on the Houthis as they closed in on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and seized more than 3,000 sq. km, per two US officials.

Trump refused.

The request is a sharp reversal from July, when MBS told Trump Saudi Arabia could handle the Houthis on its own. US officials have told their Saudi counterparts that Trump will not give that support and that the directive is to keep American forces focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and avoid opening another front.

Expect Iran to explore the opening of more fronts to increase pressure on Trump. For example, Iranian support for an Iraqi move on Kuwait (which still hosts US bases) at some point before the midterms could be possible. The complete US withdrawal from Iraq is scheduled for the end of September.

MBS made his bet in February, hosting the US air armada at Prince Sultan Air Base that opened the war, and took the Iranian retaliation on Saudi soil that followed, repeated missile and drone strikes on the base that killed a US soldier and destroyed an E-3 AWACS, and strikes on Saudi refineries. The Houthi advance on Bab el-Mandeb and Thursday’s hit on the East-West pipeline are that war’s downstream effect, and they are landing on Saudi Arabia alone.

Behind [Trump’s] directive is also capacity, with the Pentagon’s own commanders having filed formal objections to extending the Iran war, calling it unsustainable, and US officials saying Patriot and long-range missile stockpiles are catastrophically low, leaving nothing spare to defend Saudi oil infrastructure from the retaliation a Houthi campaign would bring. A Houthi front would draw on the same magazines already being emptied over Jordan and the Gulf.

The other significant new event is the Houthi seizure of Perim Island, which lies smack, dab, in the middle of the entrance/exit of the Bab el Mandeb:

Reports are that the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces fled the island without offering resistance.

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

4h

BREAKING: The Houthis have now seized Perim Island, completing total control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, per a Yemeni local government official to AFP.

Perim sits inside the strait at its narrowest point and hosts an Emirati air base where Israel has been granted access to. It comes right after MBS called Trump twice urging US strikes on the Houthis as they closed in on the strait, and Trump refused

Here’s what Brave AI has to say about the Emirati/Israeli presence:

Reports indicate that Israel has maintained a strategic military presence on Perim Island (also known as Mayun) in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, primarily through cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).  Satellite imagery and intelligence reports have documented UAE construction of an airstrip and military infrastructure on the island, which experts note facilitates Israeli monitoring and intelligence operations, including the use of Israeli radar systems and intelligence officers. 

The Houthi movement in Yemen has accused the UAE of occupying the island to project power and enable Israeli influence, allegations that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have largely dismissed or attributed to coalition defense efforts.  Despite these reports and accusations, the UAE withdrew its forces from Perim Island in January 2026, restoring nominal control to the Yemeni government, though the island was subsequently seized by Houthi forces in September 2026 during a broader regional offensive.

The guess is that the Houthis will seek to extend and consolidate control over all of Yemen, expelling Saudi and Emirati mercenaries. Given the Houthi missile capabilities, there is little the Saudis and Emiratis can do at this point, especially without US support. The Saudis undoubtedly fear that the Houthis will turn north along the Red Sea coast. The Anglo-Zionist “royal” puppets on the entire Arabian peninsula are now under the gun from two directions. This whole development is a serious blow to USraeli efforts to control the Horn of Africa and maritime choke points—including, now, Suez.

One other development to keep an eye on. Algeria has broken all relations with the UAE and summarily order the UAE ambassador out. The UAE has been the front for USraeli activity in much of Africa, especially Sudan but also the Horn of Africa and, of course, Yemen. In 2023 Algeria, which has a fairly muscular military, including modern Russian fighter jets, refused French overflights when France was attempting to hold on to Niger and other Sahelian areas. Earlier today a UAE flight en route to Morocco was forced to take a wide detour out over the Mediterranean.

Here’s another guy with a sense of humor—Thomas Massie. He’s going to try to get a discharge petition passed to force Trump to send us our $5,000 checks before the election.

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

5h

BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis have seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha, Dhubab and Zuqar Island in a series of rapid gains along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and are now attempting a landing on Perim Island inside the strait itself, which hosts an Emirati air base where Israel has been granted access to, per AFP and Reuters, moving to put the entire chokepoint under their control.

The Houthis are acting in full coordination with Iran, which asked them to strengthen their grip on Bab el-Mandeb as a complement to Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US officials believe there are currently hundreds of IRGC officers in Yemen working alongside the Houthis with the goal of shutting the strait down completely. Houthi leadership has previously discussed a transit fee system modeled on Iran’s at Hormuz, with Chinese vessels exempt.

Gulf crude oil reaches Asia by sea through Hormuz or, by pipeline to the Red Sea, through Bab el-Mandeb. Iran holds the first and Houthis are taking the second now.

4h

BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis might have directly struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline in the desert southeast of Medina. Sentinel-3 satellite imagery from today shows a massive black smoke plume nearly 100 km long over the pipeline route, stretching across the desert between Medina and Mahd adh Dhahab.

Satellite fire data shows a large fire burning at the same spot, with multiple heat anomalies clustered along a stretch of under 10 kilometers, fire radiative power above 70 megawatts, more than double a conventional fire, and the burn sustained for at least 8 hours, per NASA FIRMS data from today.

The East-West pipeline carries Saudi crude from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, the kingdom’s only export route that does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The fire comes amid Houthi attacks on Saudi territory over the past 24 hours.

2h

BREAKING: First ground-level image of the massive 100 km black smoke column rising from Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline, captured ~6h ago, after Yemen’s Houthis struck the pipeline on multiple points, the same plume seen on Sentinel-3 satellite imagery.

31m

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline has suffered catastrophic damage in at least 8 locations, per initial reports citing diplomatic channels.

This comes after satellite data showed a fire burning along the pipeline route southeast of Medina with a black smoke plume +100 km long, and consistent with the multiple heat anomalies NASA FIRMS recorded along the same stretch.

MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf

2h

Here is your daily dose of “forward guidance”, in case you don’t hear from your regime authorities: the arsenal they will exhaust and the exact order they’ll run through it. Act like you don’t know what comes next

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

41m

BREAKING: US oil prices rise above $103/barrel for the first time since May 20th, now up +20% this month.

This puts US oil prices up +54% since their July 2nd low.

That’s another +$6/barrel today alone.

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

8h

Weimar-A-Lago!

Quote

maneco64 @maneco1964

13h

Back in the Weimar Republic they also thought that printing more currency would help the affordability or inflation crisis.

Must watch—compare and contrast:

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

16h

Exemplary leadership.

Quote

李幺傻 @liyaosha

Sep 9

Translated from Chinese

The President of Mongolia, 100 kg, bench presses 20 reps—this is just too badass!

OK, why are events in Yemen so important? Here’s the short version. The US is being pushed out of all its Persian Gulf region bases. The strikes and counter strikes will continue—Iran will see to that—but everyone knows that those bases are simply no longer sustainable. As a result, the US and Israel, USrael, are actively looking for bases outside the range of Iranian missiles, from which to project power into the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Just over a month ago we discussed this in Puntland To Polling. Basing in the Horn of Africa would provide access to the region and the current situation might afford a bit of a breathing space that might allow the US to build a survivable base. The Houthi southward push toward the Arabian Sea—undoubtedly supported by Iran—puts that project under pressure. The Houthis, if their gains are consolidated, will be within ready missile range of Puntland and will have effective fire control not only over the Bab el Mandeb Strait but also its approaches in the Arabian Sea. It also provides more direct access to the strategic island of Socotra. In case you haven’t been thinking about Socotra lately …

The key to understanding this short excerpt is as follows:

None of the Yemeni factions that are mentioned are aligned with the Houthis—they’re supported by the USrael - Saudi - UAE axis.

Beginning in 2015, the UAE began increasing its presence on Socotra, first with humanitarian aid in the wake of tropical cyclones Chapala and Megh, and it eventually establishing a military presence on the island. On 30 April 2018, the UAE, as part of the ongoing Saudi Arabian–led intervention in Yemen, landed troops on the island and took control of Socotra Airport and seaport.^[23] On 14 May 2018, Saudi troops were also deployed on the island, and a deal was brokered between the UAE and Yemen for a joint military training exercise and the return of administrative control of the airport and seaport to Yemen.^[24][25] In June 2020, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) seized control of the island in a coup, ousting the local authorities and establishing its own government. However, in 2023, the Presidential Leadership Council, Yemen's internationally recognized government, integrated the STC into the government and recognized the STC's rule of the archipelago. Under its rule, peaceful protests against the coup and the UAE's interference in Socotra were violently dispersed, and journalists that criticized the coup were arrested and beaten.^[26]

Here is the section from the link regarding developments in Puntland:

[The Anglo-Zionists are] very interested in a country many (most?) readers have never heard of: Puntland. Puntland is the tip of the horn of the Horn of Africa. Until March of 2024 Puntland was part of Somalia, but then it refused to recognize the Somali government. Unlike Somaliland to its west, Puntland has so far not sought international recognition as an independent state:

Until March of 2024 Puntland was part of Somalia, but then it refused to recognize the Somali government. Unlike Somaliland, to its west, Puntland has so far not sought international recognition as an independent state. Somaliland’s efforts in that regard have been signally unsuccessful—it is only recognized by the rogue state of Israel. Not exactly a surprise.

The point of Puntland is that, as of August, the US is expanding it’s base at Bosaso, without a by your leave from the Somali government. Responsible Statecraft has two recent articles on this development. In the first of them, they note that this action appears not to be aimed at Somalia:

US military marching into Puntland as Red Sea tensions escalate

Though the agreement itself is vague, it signals a potential new direction in the Trump administration’s Horn of Africa policy. Experts say the driving force is the expansion of the Iran war into the Red Sea, not a reaction to events inside Somalia itself. But the move also risks deepening a rift between Mogadishu and the federal states it has long struggled to hold together.

American engagement with these states is not entirely new. Cameron Hudson, an analyst who previously served as director for African affairs at the National Security Council, told RS that the U.S. has used Puntland as a staging ground for operations inside Somalia for years, largely via an Emirati-run base in the port city of Bosaso.

“The United States probably now sees a longer term need to have a kind of wholly owned, wholly operated U.S. base in the region,” Hudson said, a move that likely indicates either an increase in military strikes within Somalia or part of a larger effort to combat growing threats in the wider region.

So, in other words, this development, long advocated by Neocons, is a repositioning of US resources in the long term war on Iran and Yemen. It also risks involvement in other regional wars in this very violent and turbulent area. That’s what the second article gets into:

How the Egypt-Ethiopia feud could upend Trump’s plans in Africa

The US has no plan for dealing with the complex rivalries that threaten its strategy in the region

What’s going on here—and it is complicated—is that the Neocons are trying to gain control over the west coast of the Red Sea, especially around the Bab el Mandab strait. But in doing this, by courting relatively small breakaway parts of countries, the Neocons are putting the US at odds with major countries that are also involved in the disputes—countries like Egypt (pop. 107 million) and Ethiopia (pop. 140 million). Again, the bottom line is that the Trump regime may be repositioning out of the Persian Gulf, but it is absolutely not giving up military operations in the region. It’s a question of finding more secure bases. Djibouti is probably considered uncomfortably close to Yemen, so Puntland it is. Neocons remain firmly in control of US foreign policy.

Here in America we’re used to politicians bribing the people. It’s a sort of dividend from the income tax. But it reached new levels of vulgarity last night:

Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

7h

Things are going so well in America that the President is now openly promising citizens cash if they vote Republican.

Trump says that if Republicans retain the House and Senate in November, every American adult will receive a $5,000 “Trump Dividend.”

The proposal would cost more than $1 trillion and would require congressional approval.

Recall that Trump previously floated $5,000 DOGE dividend checks and promised $2,000 tariff dividend.

Neither materialized. Is this even legal?

Corporations got their tariff refunds—the tariffs having been largely paid by ordinary Americans as a tax on their purchases. Some corporations expressed their gratitude to Trump in the usual, always acceptable, fashion.

While we wait for Trump’s promise of $2/gallon gas to materialize, we can amuse ourselves by watching the oil price:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

Brent crude is accelerating again and is now above $104 per barrel.

The Houthis are totally on a roll. After a few weeks of BS propaganda from the Saudi mercenaries, reality is setting in and can’t be hidden. Remember when Trump was going to humble the Houthis? But then TACOed? The Houthis have captured al-Mukha, from which the famous Mocha coffee is exported. It’s a really big deal—a major victory for Iran’s Axis of Resistance—with impact on the US military presence in the region.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

2h

 ANSARALLAH’S MOMENTUM IS INSANE!!!

Reports that Ansarallah has liberated Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea, near the Bab al-Mandab Strait!!!!

2h

 Ansarallah forces are now advancing toward Dhubab, the last major Saudi-backed position on Yemen’s Red Sea coast.

Columns of Yemeni forces are reportedly moving south following the capture of Mukha, continuing the extraordinary advance toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Reuters confirms Saudi-backed forces have withdrawn south to Dhubab, which sits directly on Bab al-Mandab opposite Perim Island.

The battle for Bab al-Mandab is getting very close and Ansarallah will be victorious.

1h

 The collapse of the mercenary front is getting increasingly chaotic.

UAE-aligned southern forces are blocking retreating Saudi-backed forces from entering southern cities with their weapons, after they fled the rapidly advancing Yemeni forces along the western coast.

Southern forces have refused to fight outside their own regions, while Tariq Saleh has acknowledged ordering a strategic withdrawal from Mukha after suffering heavy losses.

They’re not only retreating from Ansarallah, they’re now being stopped by their own supposed allies.

.

1h

 BREAKING!!! Ansarallah forces have reportedly LANDED ON MAYUN ISLAND — directly inside the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Clashes are reportedly underway as Yemeni forces attempt to seize the extraordinarily strategic island, also known as Perim, which sits at the narrowest section of the strait between Yemen and Djibouti.

Mayun hosts an airbase linked to the UAE, with a runway capable of handling military aircraft and claims of an Israeli presence on the island have circulated for years.

Control of Dhubab and Perim Island is key to gaining control of Bab al-Mandab.

If confirmed, this is a huge development.

I presume that GOPers have been pleading with Trump to come up with some plan deal with the anger of Americans who are sick and tired of wars for Israel that we get no say in. So that’s it. I very much doubt that it will go over with voters. Who really thinks that Iran is about to give up? After all, Trump’s latest gaslight here amounts to a backhanded admission that he’s powerless to “WIN” the war. He has to wait for Iran to give him the “WIN.” And you can count on it—Iran will give Americans every reason in the world to doubt that Trump has any control over when the war will end.

Speaking of the end of the war, here’s an interesting item. I have no idea whether to take it seriously:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

51m

BREAKING: The Pentagon has been preparing a live-fire test of a classified weapon designed to hit Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site since the day before the war started, signing an emergency $1.2 million contract on February 27 to ready an underground test facility at White Sands, New Mexico, under a “time-sensitive national security directive,” per CNN.

Trump said last week the US “may hit Pickaxe very soon.” The granite mountain is beyond the reach of even the Pentagon’s heaviest non-nuclear bombs, per CSIS. Only a tactical nuclear weapon can currently damage it.

Most people I’ve read or listened to on the subject say that even a tactical nuke won’t damage it.

New satellite imagery shows a surge in construction at Pickaxe, with work shifting from excavation to internal construction and reinforcement of the tunnel entrances, and more road activity in 2026 than in any year before.

And still on the subject of Trump, give a listen to this 13 minute segment (of a much long video), “Psychopathy, Narcissism, Machiavellianism and Sadism Explained”.

This morning I listened to Danny Davis with Steve Jermy. The interview was basically a discussion of Jermy’s new article:

The Shattered Myth of US Military Primacy

Tectonic Shifts in the International Balance of Power

The real theme of the article has to do with the inability or refusal of the West to think strategically. As he points out, that inability or refusal has led to one defeat after another for the US and its vassals, as they roam the world seeking whom they may devour—and always ending up with a bad case of indigestion, while, visiting enormous human suffering upon the countries they engage against. I don’t insist on this, but it occurs to me that the difference in the West vs. the Rest is that the Rest (Russia, China, Iran, etc.) are what are now popularly known as civilizational states. By contrast, I might argue that the West rejected its own civilization, Christendom, beginning with the breakdown of Christian thought in the late Middle Ages and the rise of Nation States ruled in totalitarian fashion. That development was messy and proceeded over a matter of centuries, but what replaced Christendom as a civilizational force was ideology—in opposition to faith and reason. Here, via Brave AI, is Eric Voegelin’s definition of ideology:

Eric Voegelin defined ideology not merely as a set of political ideas, but as a deformation of consciousness and a form of spiritual rebellion against reality. It is a system of thought that claims exhaustive, Gnostic knowledge of history’s direction or the structure of reality, thereby denying human limits and the tension of existence toward a transcendent ground.

Key characteristics of Voegelin’s definition include:

• Immanentization of the Eschaton: The attempt to create a perfect world or achieve salvation within history through political action, rather than accepting the open, uncertain nature of human existence.

• Denial of Transcendence: Ideologies reject the transcendent order of being, replacing it with closed, pseudo-religious systems that promise earthly perfection.

• Loss of Contact with Reality: Ideological thinkers lose touch with the experiential sources of symbols, leading to a “secondary reality” where truth is replaced by dogmatic assertions.

• Apocalyptic and Gnostic Elements: Modern ideologies (such as Marxism, Nazism, and Progressivism) function as secularized versions of ancient Gnosticism, believing that a chosen elite can use special knowledge to radically transform a fundamentally flawed world.

Here are three links to past posts on related issues—it’s too long to go into here:

Chesterton’s Thomist View of Myth

This post discusses the relationship of orthodox Christianity to traditional, civilizational thought.

Neocon Myths

This post discusses an article by Alastair Crooke, and the notion of Neocon Myths is his. In the post I argue that myth is proper to traditional or civilizational societies and that the proper categorization of Neocon thinking is: Ideology of a gnostic variety.

Recommended Reading For Christmas

In that final post I discuss what I refer to as Islam. That should probably be rewritten to something like “Islamism” or “Jihadist Islam”. In the present context of war on Iran it needs to be understood that Shia Islam values philosophical reason and has preserved values of Iranian civilization.

I’ll finish with some excerpts from Doug Macgregor’s appearance on Danny Davis’ show. Mac’s view of the current state of affairs is increasingly dark—as is his view of Trump’s agency in running the government. In a way, Mac’s reference to Clinton relates to Trump’s new talking point about the war ending immediately after the elections. Trump is continuing to dig, while trying to con Americans into thinking that he’s standing still in the hole.

Trump Careening Towards the Point of No Return w/Iran Col Doug Macgregor

What is it that Bill Clinton used to say? If you’re deep inside a hole, stop digging. President Trump needs to stop digging. But I don’t see any evidence that he will, because I don’t think he’s in charge. I think he has to answer to the Zionist billionaire class in the United States that is funding everything and is determined to carry on with this war. No matter how many people it kills, no matter how many countries are destroyed, and now no matter how much damage is done to us. We are a secondary or tertiary concern for them. Their preeminent concern is international Zionist Jewish finance and Israel.

And that brings us back to the question of why are we doing what we’re doing and why is this going to continue? Why will the federal government or the Federal Reserve engage in more massive money printing in the hopes of yield control yield curve control curbing government debt leading to sustained high inflation and a weaker dollar? You know, all of these things are going to continue because of Israel and the grip that the Israeli lobby manifested by the Zionist billionaires has on our throats here in the United States and I think on Donald Trump’s throat.

So there’s not much for us at this stage to gain by sustaining this conflict. But it’s Donald Trump who has to figure that out. And even if he does, he may not have the liberty of acting on his own.

DD: Hitting tankers is not going to bring Iran to their knees. Do you have any sense of what might be on their mind and how they think this is going to work out?

I think the minds in the Trump administration, I think the minds in the Biden administration, I think the minds on the Hill are all the same. They want to stay in power. They want to continue to be on the payroll. When I say payroll, I’m not just talking about, you know, the pay that they get for sitting in a seat in the House or the Senate, but all the deals that they that come their way, the insider trading, the massive influence of the so-called Jewish lobby, the Israel lobby, its control of so much of American and international finance, all of these people want to continue to profit. So they’re not really terribly concerned about the impact on the rest of the world.

We play out this phony sort of conflict between the Democrats the Republicans. I read through some of Ocasio-Cortez’s comments recently. She signs on for everything that Trump wants. Then turns around and says, “Well, this is all bad and it’s his fault.” I mean, stop and think about that. She wants to continue all the bad policies that we have followed in Ukraine, that we followed in the Middle East, that we followed here at home. But it’s Donald Trump’s fault that we’re doing this. But we have to do it. So, what the hell is the point of going into the into the ballot box?

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

3h

BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC announces it struck the deployment site for F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighter jets, as well as a fighter jet shelter, a maintenance and repair facility, and a preparation area at the US Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, “inflicting significant damage.”

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

56m

BREAKING: A large number of injured US soldiers are being flown to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, some with life-threatening injuries, following tonight’s Iranian ballistic missile strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan, per a Jordanian source to Al Arabiya.

A US official tells Reuters minutes ago that all American troops in Jordan are “accounted for,” which is highly unusual wording and does not mean “no casualties,” as it is simply a headcount of every listed soldier. At least 4 of the missiles at Muwaffaq directly impacted, with no interceptors even fired at them.

Apparently the US forces used up all or most of their Patriot interceptors on the first wave. Then came the second wave. In addition, Iran is reported to have used cluster type warheads in their mix, which cause wide area damage on airfields—to landing strips, buildings, planes, personnel, whatever.

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

Twenty-six more Americans wounded in a war the Pentagon says ended in May

The military added them to its casualty database Tuesday under Overseas Operations, the label it has used for Middle East injuries and deaths since July 7, with no dates or locations given.

That column now holds 403 wounded between July 7 and September 8.

The Operation Epic Fury column holds another 417 from February to July, plus five injuries in June and a death in July.

Add the columns and 820 Americans have been wounded in seven months, more than the 756 the Pentagon acknowledged two weeks ago.

Matt Bracken @Matt_Bracken48

1h

...

I can only conjecture that the vast majority of the WIA are blast injured from nearby missile impacts. You can get behind cover with a minute or two of warning, but you can’t escape the blast overpressure.

This might be the “Agent Orange” or “Gulf War Syndrome” of Operation Epic Fury. Blast injured troops can suffer lifelong disabilities such as permanent negative mood changes, attention deficit, balance issues, memory issues, vision issues, hearing issues, etc etc.

Per Grok:

Iran has made an additional claim for which there is no confirmation:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

3h

BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC announces it struck the US destroyers USS Delbert D. Black (DDG-119) and USS John Paul Jones (DDG-53) with ballistic missiles in response to tonight’s US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, saying both Aegis warships were carrying cruise missiles and that the attack “caused significant damage to these vessels.”

We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Since then France has been maneuvering to try to get back in control, unsuccessfully, and Russia has deployed its Africa Forces to shore up the Sahelian states—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Since then there has been constant warfare. Niger is now accusing France of having orchestrated the attempted coup in Niger at the end of August. France, of course, is deny the charges, but they tend to ring true. France is in an economic bind and can’t really afford to forego its colonial leverage if it wants to retain what remains of its international standing.

Here’s the Brave AI summary of what happened, the charges and denials:

Niger’s military government formally accused France of orchestrating the failed coup attempt in Niamey on August 28–29, 2026, alleging that President Emmanuel Macron led a network of accomplices seeking to destabilize the country and regain control of its natural resources.

• The Incident: Mutinous soldiers, primarily from the Special Operations Command, attacked the presidential palace, the Diori Hamani International Airport, Air Base 101, and state television before being suppressed by loyalist forces backed by the Russian Africa Corps.

• Niger’s Accusations: The Council of Ministers, chaired by General Abdourahamane Tiani, claimed to have substantial evidence linking France to the plot and reserved the right to take the matter to international courts. Testimony from Captain Roger Gabriel implicated French and Chadian special forces, as well as relatives of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, in supporting the mutineers.

• France’s Response: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot categorically denied the allegations, describing them as “pure fiction” and stating there was “neither intent nor means” for France to conduct such a military operation.

• Geopolitical Context: The accusations further deteriorate relations between Niger and its former colonizer, following Niger’s 2023 coup and subsequent expulsion of French troops. Niger has since strengthened ties with Russia, Algeria, and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali and Burkina Faso.

The Roger Gabriel mentioned above apparently led the loyalist forces and features in this news story:

Niger: Failed Coup - Niger Blames France, Neighbouring Countries, Threatens International Action

The allegation came a few days after a senior Nigerien military commander alleged that neighbouring countries supported the mutiny.

Roger Gabriel, a Nigerien army captain, appeared on a state television, alleging that several people, including associates of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum, and officers from Chad, Benin and Côte d’Ivoire, were behind the attack.

Mr Gabriel, the commander of the 1st Parachute Battalion, an elite unit of the army, said foreigners from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Belgium also called and urged him to join the mutiny.

The officer said French soldiers would have arrived in Niamey as reinforcements for the mutineers.

At press time, Benin has rejected his claim, while it remains unclear if other countries he mentioned have reacted.

There’s another fairly detailed account of the various claims and denials here, plus some historical background:

Niger accuses France of backing failed military coup attempt

Niger gained independence from France in 1960, but the two countries maintained close political, economic and military ties for decades after independence.

French military forces had maintained a significant presence in Niger as part of regional efforts to combat jihadist groups operating across the Sahel. That cooperation collapsed after the 2023 coup, with Niger’s military authorities demanding the withdrawal of French troops.

The relationship has also been shaped by Niger’s economic importance, particularly its uranium resources, which have long attracted French interest.

In the years following independence, Niger’s armed forces included a significant number of officers who had previously served in the French colonial military, reflecting the depth of the military links between the two countries.

Relations deteriorated sharply after Tiani’s takeover, as the new authorities rejected French influence and sought to strengthen ties with other international partners.

Niger has since joined Mali and Burkina Faso in the Alliance of Sahel States, a regional bloc formed by military-led governments that have also distanced themselves from France.

The way all this affects France is economically—France’s standing as a leading partner of the Anglo-Zionist West was subsidized by its neo-colonial empire in West Africa:

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

Sep 7

France has lost its African imperial subsidy to the revolutions in the Sahel states and quickly becomes economically unviable.

The attempt to coup and regain Niger failed (again) last month.

France will keep trying to assassinate and coup its former colonies because France unsubsidised is unthinkable.

𝕊𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕻𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤 @SprinterPress

Debt Trap: Why the French Financial Crisis Will Be a Disaster for the Entire EU

France is rapidly becoming the main debt problem in Europe, according to The Economist. Paris no longer has either a budget surplus or economic growth, and its national debt has already reached a catastrophic 118% of GDP.

This threatens the stability of the entire European Union: Paris has accumulated the debts, but according to EU law, the entire union will have to bear the burden of solidarity. Moreover, other members of the eurozone are also deeply in debt. The situation is complicated by the fact that France has never been known for its strict financial discipline. Macron and his cabinet have long lived by the principle of “après nous, le déluge” (after us, the flood). And ordinary citizens of European countries will be forced to pay for this feast during the plague.

In other words, France’s crisis is the EU’s crisis, and many of the member states that had no past of colonial exploitation around the world will be disinclined to bail out France. Imperial devolution continues apace.

On the same theme, Argentina is renewing its efforts to retake the Malvinas (Falkland) Islands from the UK. This time they have the heavy hitters on their side. Jewish Nationalists are supporting Argentina, which means Trump is, too.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

3h

“Are you putting Britain at risk? Will Israel carry out its threats because of the settlement bill? What about the Falklands?” — Miliband confronted as UK–Israel dispute escalates

British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband was confronted by journalists over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands as London moves to impose new restrictions on trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

The question follows an extraordinary intervention from Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who called on Israel to officially recognize Argentine sovereignty over the islands and impose sanctions on Britain “as long as the occupation continues.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has also warned that Israel will retaliate if Britain acts against it, saying: “We have the tools.”

Who is Israel’s tool? Trump, I would guess. Here’s a very readable and informative substack on what’s going on down under, so to speak:

The Shift to a Multipolar World Order Will Cost Britain the Falklands

An analysis of the military balance of power in the South Atlantic, and why it probably won’t matter in the new world system.

The Anglo-Zionists are scrambling for control of global resources. Their military plays against Russia and Iran are going very badly. In the meantime, China has for decades deployed its soft trade power to win friends around the world. China is easily the main trading partner for most of Latin America—including potential regional hegemon Brazil:

Argentina—politically dysfunctional as it may be—is resource rich and strategically located and a key to re-establishing American dominance.

The UK occupation of the Malvinas/Falklands simply is in the way of the US power pivot to the Western Hemisphere—it’s a nuisance and an irritant for Inter-American relations. Therefore, if China is to be supplanted, it suits Washington and its Jewish Nationalist allies to remove the British irritant from the equation. Nothing personal, just go home.

First the Good News—according to Trump/Bessent:

Uh-huh! I’m sure you’ve seen the catch to that. It’s what the generals apparently told Trump in their dissent from Hegseth’s views: Iran gets a vote. And Iran’s vote will ensure that none of the above is gonna happen—certainly not before November. Here’s Iran’s vote, as manifested over the past 24 hours—which comes after Iran announced the expansion of their area of control well out from Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman:

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

18h

BREAKING: Iran launches multiple waves of anti-ship cruise missiles and Shahed-136 drones from Sirik, southern Iran, toward vessels under US Navy escort in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, per initial reports.

The target is a large convoy of US-escorted oil tankers currently transiting the Omani route. Multiple explosions heard minutes ago.

17h

BREAKING: The Trump administration has sent a new peace proposal to Iran through mediators, per a senior source in Tehran to RT.

US stock market futures open in less than an hour.

Good luck with that, if it was even intended seriously—because Iran definitely didn’t take it that way.

17h

BREAKING: Iran rejects the proposal, saying Iran sets the conditions of any proposal and the US “repeated violations” and shifting positions make talks currently impossible, per a senior source in Tehran to RT.

Iran says all conditions must be met first, which remain unchanged: $300 billion in US compensation, complete lifting of all US sanctions, release of $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets, end of the US naval blockade, US troop withdrawal from the entire region, and a comprehensive regional ceasefire including in Lebanon and Gaza.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

2h

Iranian air defenses have shot down an American MQ-1C Gray Eagle reconnaissance and strike drone operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian sources say the aircraft was destroyed before they could pose a threat to Iranian territory.

The MQ-1C is one of the U.S. Army’s most sophisticated armed surveillance drones, capable of carrying Hellfire missiles and advanced ISR equipment. Recent Army procurement figures work out to roughly $35 million per system.

That’s the second one in the last 24 hours, I believe. And this next is sure to fascinate Russian and Chinese engineers. According to Brave AI re the Pentagon’s Replicator Initiative, all this was originally dreamed up for use against China:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

23m

IRGC seizes advanced U.S. underwater drone

Iranian sources report that the IRGC Navy has seized an Anduril Dive-LD autonomous underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz.

The 5.8-meter U.S.-made underwater drone can operate autonomously for up to 10 days and dive to depths of 6,000 meters. Its modular payload system allows it to perform ISR, undersea reconnaissance, mine warfare and seabed-mapping missions.

The Dive-LD was selected for the Pentagon’s Replicator initiative, and the first system was delivered to the U.S. Navy’s Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Squadron One (UUVRON-1) in 2025.

And that’s what happens when you think you can get away with the art of the double-cross on the world stage—nobody cuts you any slack. In line with what we’ve been insisting—escalation is what Iran wants—Iran has Trump where they want him. If Trump tries to escalate, Iran trumps his escalation with their own. If Trump tries to back off, Iran trumps him by forcing him back onto that escalation ladder. Add to that Iran’s/Yemen’s closure of the Bab el Mandeb strait, and now the disastrous war between KSA and Yemen—with Yemen continuing to hit Saudi/American oil infrastructure—and it’s clear to anyone with eyes to see that Trump is simply not in control. He and his minders were stiffed in Moscow and now Xi will be visiting the Imperial City in Decline on the Potomac on September 24th. I can’t imagine what their conversations will be like, but Trump better not be expecting any concessions. China is back to buying up vast amounts of whatever oil is available. Luke Gromen offers this caution to fantasists who think the USN is somehow going to cut China’s oil supplies:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

15h

In keeping w/trying to speak more plainly on X:

US cannot cut off China’s oil while the world is sending China $1.2T a yr in trade surplus, because China can use it to outbid others for oil…& when China does, the resultant rise in oil sends UST yields to problematic levels

Yeah. Oil is rising sharply and Japan dumped $88T in treasuries in August. That’s not what Bessent wanted. There’s also this:

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

Sep 6

Hedge funds are forced buyers of USTs as a result of mandatory margin on OTC derivatives. A margin call due to UST mark downs forces them to buy more, not divest. This is the pattern of the past 3 years.

Mandatory margin was designed after GFC to create more trapped forced buyers. It’s working as planned.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

1h

Implication of this headline for investors, in plain speak:

Inflation is going WAY higher over time if this continues; sell LT bonds on all days ending in “-y”.

And now for a large dose of reality. Trump thinks the winning campaign strategy for the GOP, heading into the midterms, is to make the election a referendum on his surpassing greatness:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

1h

BREAKING: US diesel is now closing in on a $6/gallon national average, for the first time in history, with wholesale prices surging 13 cents/gallon tonight.

California could surge past $8/gallon statewide in the coming days, with San Francisco’s average hitting an all-time high of $8.23 already. The state average is more than $2.60 higher than a year ago today. Some California pumps are not even built to display what could come next, as they top out at $9.99.

This comes as Iran has rejects the latest US peace proposal and the US and Iran exchange strikes in the Strait of Hormuz.

This is especially problematic as the US has officially entered its peak diesel demand period.

Inflation expectations continue to mount as a result.

2h

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices rise above $99/barrel for the first time since July 24th as the US and Iran exchange strikes.

Inflation expectations are rising sharply.

10h

BREAKING: Canada has officially imposed new tariffs of up to 50% on hundreds of products from the US in response to President Trump’s tariffs.

New tariffs include US steel, at 50%, and a range of consumer goods, motorcycles, cosmetics, cheese, and more.

Are you tired of winning, yet?

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

5h

The situation in the Strait is about to get a lot more intense. Strap in.

Quote

Narjes Rahmati 🟩☫🟥 نرجس رحمتی @Narjes_Rahmati

21h

Iran’s New Policy:

US naval ships enforcing the blockade of Iran - an act of war - will be legitimate targets.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

2h

Considering the recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, it shouldn’t be long before 1) an even more important escalation 2) or the announcement of a deal.

A Qatari delegation flew to Tehran today.

We shall see. I do expect continued news from Hormuz, maybe even later today, but for now: no news.

Guesswork isn’t really news, either. Yesterday Brandon Weichert recounted what Martin Armstrong and Anthony Aguilar are predicting/suggesting could happen during the week of October 5th. Hint: Nukes.

Brandon Weichert: We had Martin Armstrong on yesterday. He actually gave me a date. He said the week of October 5th is when the Israelis are gonna go nuclear against the Iranians. Then I asked [Anthony] Aguilar right after that. Aguilar opened up, saying that he thinks that Trump and Netanyahu have planned this for a long time and that the week of October 5th--that early part of October--is when Netanyahu is gonna drop a tactical nuclear weapon on Pickaxe. Cuz apparently, Aguilar was saying, yesterday Netanyahu pointed out the threat that Pickaxe poses to Israel from a nuclear weapons perspective. [Aguilar] read the quote on the air yesterday and this was a recent Netanyahu statement that was made about Pickaxe. [Netanyahu] basically said that Pickaxe is a threat--a growing threat. Aguilar said that this is setting the table for what he thinks is gonna be the likely use of nuclear weapons by Israel WITH the tacit approval of the Trump administration. Aguilar says that that’s why he thinks that the Secretary of Defense’s Order Book--all of the non-concur assessments from Joint Chiefs and the Combatant Commanders--were leaked to the WaPo. The real reason is that they KNOW that there’s tactical nuclear weapons being moved into the region. And they’re trying to put a stop to it without directly saying, ‘This is what’s going on,’ and risking their jobs and pensions. That’s Aguilar’s thought.

I don’t buy into Armstrong’s algorithms to foretell the future. Armstrong’s saying his algorithm tells him there’s a 100% probability of nuclear war in 2026. 100% seems beyond guesswork and beyond prediction—it’s even beyond probability. It’s certainty. I’m not so sure, but … If it happens, that’ll be news, but we may not live to find out.

Aguilar’s arguments seem more like guesswork to me. Netanyahu says Pickaxe Mountain is a threat to Israel. Yeah, sure. I guess I’d say that, too, if I were Netanyahu and looked to be losing the election. Trump agreeing to Israel nuking Iran? I can’t say Trump wouldn’t do that, but it seems politically crazy—that would nuke the GOP, in my view. OTOH, it’s being credibly reported that Trump thinks the winning play for the midterms is to make it all about himself, because, well, that’s what he thinks the world is all about. So, from that perspective, it’s hard to deny that he could go along with nukes.

Now, I get that Aguilar can’t say that he personally knows that the US is moving nukes to the Middle East—if he personally knew that and said so, then he’d undoubtedly be arrested and prosecuted. So, he says that that’s what he thinks the leaks from the generals are really all about. But two questions. One, if Israel is the one that’s gonna nuke Iran, why is the US moving nukes to the Middle East? Two, given that the US already has about 50 nukes at Incirlik in Turkey, why send nukes in that direction to begin with? Even if Turkey refused permission for nuclear strikes to be launched from Incirlik, couldn’t they simply be redeployed to wherever Aguilar suggests they’re headed? So, I’m skeptical.

More non-news. Steve and Jared spent three hours with Putin yesterday and now they’re in Kiev (having been rerouted through Poland). There is absolutely no news here. Nothing Putin said changes a thing. He still wants to talk about root causes and so forth before there are any negotiations. The idea that Putin would change his mind on that is beyond laughable, but if you want/need to be convinced of that, Danny Davis has a good, succinct explanation for you: Peace: Off the Table in Moscow, Nothing’s Stopping Russia /Lt Col Daniel Davis.

Not news: The Houthis are pretty handy with the ballistic missiles Iran has provided to them. Here we see them deploying a medium range missile—range up to ~150 kilometers and accuracy of, well, see for yourself.

Now, it seems that Iran didn’t use enough missiles yesterday when it targeted the USN ships for the strike to have a high probability of success—even though CENTCOM appeared to admit that the ships were forced to take evasive action. Here’s how those Iranian missiles work, but for them to constitute more than a warning to back off, there would probably need to be a bigger attack, perhaps with multiple different munitions:

Patarames @Pataramesh

6h

In world history; the first time an Anti-Ship Ballistic-Missile was used against a Navy was in Yemen last year

➡️ An Iranian-made one

Two days ago it happened for the second time, confirmed by both sides

The Qassem-e-Basir is the most talked about candidate

➡️ Here how it works:

As Quasi-Ballistic missile it flies a depressed trajectory, keeping it outside the envelope of the U.S. SM-3

Once within range of the SM-6 it is believed to fly maneuvers, both to evade defenses and slow down for seeker target acquisition

But to defeat several Aegis destroyers missile defenses, a salvo of 2 missiles is not enough.

3-4 SM-6 interceptors are most probably launched against each Qassem-e-Basir, costing 4-5 millions each and without large available stocks.

Lastly:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

2h

“Washington can look at a lower gold quotation and persuade itself that American paper has prevailed.

China can look at the same quotation and calculate how much additional bullion it can acquire before the price reflects [reality]...”

Great Substack post (link below, via LQ):

China Thinks America Is Manipulating the Gold Market. Here’s How Beijing Plans to Prove It.

When gold suffered its violent decline this year, China did not behave like an investor whose thesis had failed. It accelerated its purchases. June produced the largest reported monthly PBoC addition in more than two years, and July was larger still. Beijing evidently did not interpret the falling dollar price as evidence that gold had become strategically less valuable. Its behavior suggests the opposite: Western financial conditions were offering China more ounces for the same amount of money, and China was willing to take them.

Trump’s economic policy makes that dynamic considerably more dangerous because the administration has created conditions in which China can exploit American-generated financial volatility while Washington mistakes a lower gold quotation for evidence of monetary strength. Gold has historically served as protection against inflation, currency debasement, fiscal deterioration and geopolitical instability, all risks Trump has intensified in one form or another. Yet modern market mechanics can produce an apparently contradictory short-term response. Conflict pushes oil higher. More expensive energy raises inflation expectations, strengthening the longer-term case for holding gold as protection against the erosion of purchasing power. Those same inflation fears, however, can reduce the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease, lift Treasury yields, strengthen the dollar and raise the immediate opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no coupon. The quoted price can decline while the underlying reasons for owning physical bullion are becoming stronger.

Beijing appears to understand this distinction considerably better than the Trump administration does. Washington can look at a lower gold quotation and persuade itself that American paper has prevailed. China can look at the same quotation and calculate how much additional bullion it can acquire before the price reflects the deterioration in the conditions that caused the selloff in the first place. That asymmetry in time horizons is working in China’s favor. Trump remains preoccupied with the visible price of things. Beijing is increasingly focused on inventories, custody, refining capacity, clearing systems, physical delivery and control over the infrastructure through which strategic assets move.

The Dems are, in many ways, in just as much disarray as the GOPers—both wings of the Uniparty are at war with the voting public. And yet Trump keeps handing the Dems pre-packaged campaign ads, reminders that he cares little to nothing about Americans.

So, speaking of war and how we got to where we are …

Russia is returning to center stage, as the Euro Elite threaten war with Russia—over the heads of their citizens. The Norwegians seized a Russian vessel in the Arctic, which Putin labeled “an act of piracy.” And the Germans are openly stating that they’ll provide Ukraine with 5,000 cruise missiles to use against Russia. Russian FM Lavrov says Russia will attack such missiles—hinting that the attack will happen in Germany. This is insanity, but it’s insanity that received the Trump mark of approval at the G-7 meeting. He can’t seem to get over the idea that he can force others to bend the knee to him by using military force.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia is dominating. Russian forces are developing multiple regional cauldrons, surrounding thousands of Ukrainian troops—near Kharkov, in Donbass, in Zaporozhye. In the air war there are reports that Ukraine is running out of air to air missiles. Perhaps as a result, Russia has recently used FAB (glide) bombs to strike thermal power plants near Kherson and Odessa. Here’s why that’s significant. These large bombs—much more powerful and effective than missiles or drones—are launched from planes (usually Su-34s). The range of these FABs is multiple tens of kilometers, but that’s still fairly short range. The launch point is typically from behind Russian lines. That may still have been the case in the strike at Kherson, but with regard to Odessa the Russian planes would have had to approach the launch point from over Ukrainian held territory or at relatively close range over the Black Sea—possible only if Ukraine’s AD is largely non-existent near it’s only major port. If this heralds a developing Russian air offensive that features Russian attack planes roaming widely across Ukraine, that’s a major development. Russia also recently attacked the office of Ukraine’s secret police chief. That also looks like an escalation, since Russia has largely avoided targeting commanders. We may start seeing targeted assassinations of Ukraine’s leadership—you know that Russia keeps close tabs on their whereabouts.

The sum of it is that the NATO offensive on civilian targets in Russia has had zero deterrent effect on Russia’s war effort. This is almost certainly the meaning of Ratcliffe’s mission to Moscow in search of a ceasefire, where he received a distinctly cold shoulder from the Russians. At the SCO conference Trump’s recruits from around the world—India, Turkey, Brazil—again tried to talk Putin into a ceasefire. Putin and Xi stiffed them all—Russia and China aren’t going to forego victory. And now Trump has rolled out the really big guns. Steve and Jared—rabid Jewish Nationalist real estate wheeler dealers turned war profiteers—are winging their way to Moscow to offer Putin a deal he will turn down with a public straight face, before private guffaws.

We’re moving toward fall and winter in Ukraine. Russia has been dismantling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Philip Pilkington warns the the NATO countries may experience a surge of millions of Ukrainians westward, which will surely lead to political turmoil.

Now, yesterday I came across two compelling twitter posts, both of which get at the origins of these Jewish Nationalist wars that Trump is waging. It’s important to understand that in both cases—Russia and Iran—these wars were long in the buildup, but Trump played a key role in bringing both of them about. In each case they were the result of Trump’s goofy conviction that he could use the US military to strongarm proud and strong countries into submission—that was always the basis of his claim that he could avoid war, never would have happened if he had been president. He would have forced submission years ago. The Iran case speaks for itself. Regarding Russia, please recall that Trump is the president who stuffed Ukraine full of offensive weaponry that made the war on Russia possible—and he regularly brags that he armed Ukraine to a far greater degree than Obama. But there were other purely political developments in America that enabled all these wars.

So …

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

Sep 3

Citizens United - the Supreme Court decision to treat corporations as ‘persons’ who could pump unlimited money into politics - ended Constitutional Democracy in the US. Ever since only the money matters, not the voters.

...

And it will end with them.”

Amir @AmirAminiMD

A superpower in rapid decline, defeated by its own hubris and incompetence. Not necessarily because it lost this war militarily -what is far more detrimental is the irreversible loss of perceived invincibility and of the narrative.

Yes, the Iran war is the biggest blunder in US history, but the final nail in the coffin of US hegemony is not a mere military defeat. It is the complete destruction of its superiority and credibility by surrendering its sovereignty to special interests and foreign powers.

The end of US dominance started long ago when it turned itself into a political auction house. It started with Super PACs, Super Delegates and Citizens United -with Miriam Adelson, Benjamin Netanyahu and AIPAC.

And it will end with them.

The US today may be able to kidnap or assassinate political leaders, steal resources in broad daylight, and bomb schoolchildren, weddings, hospitals and universities. It can commit genocide and drop phosphorus bombs on the refugees it created inside an open-air concentration camp. It can project fear like a rogue terrorist entity. But it cannot pretend to be the good guy anymore. It cannot expect to be trusted anymore. It cannot influence its allies anymore. It cannot convince its own people.

And it will never again be able to convince young Americans to die in its illegal, horrendous wars.

US world domination is falling apart in real time.

Iran just accelerated the inevitable collapse.

The second piece is a reminder that Trump’s penchant for murder, and his belief that his murders should go unpunished, led America into the Iran debacle. He wasn’t the first American president to do this, but he failed to learn from the past and understand how the past would shape the future. The wrong president at the wrong time surrounded by the wrong advisers.

𝕊𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕻𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤 @SprinterPress

After the assassination of Qassem Soleimani by the Americans, General Kenneth McKenzie was the head of CENTCOM, and the operation was carried out under his leadership. In his book, The Melting Point, he writes that when the order to eliminate General Soleimani was given, he opposed it.

🚫Why? McKenzie believed that the assassination of one Iranian general could draw the United States into a protracted regional war, which would not serve American interests. Therefore, he proposed abandoning the operation. However, the Director of the CIA [Gina Haspel] presented a different assessment: Iran, according to their calculations, would not go to war. As a result, the operation was carried out.

🚫This is where a strategic mistake was made. In Washington, they believed that the assassination of Soleimani would not have long-term consequences. But after his death, a completely different principle was formulated [by Iran]: revenge for Qassem Soleimani should be the expulsion of the United States from the entire region.

🚫And today, it is becoming increasingly clear that this was not about a single retaliatory strike. After Soleimani’s death, a process of gradually weakening American hegemony in the Middle East began. What was previously perceived as almost undisputed American dominance began to crumble step by step.

🚫As a result of this “stupid war,” the United States lost its hegemony in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia, through a project to unite southern Pakistan with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, is seeking to create a new regional security architecture.

🚫But the question of responsibility for Soleimani’s assassination has not gone away. It has been explicitly stated that those who carried out and organized his assassination must be punished. This refers to those who made the decisions, planned, and led this operation.

In other words, starting with Trump.

🚫After the death of the spiritual leader, this issue becomes even more fundamental. If revenge was declared for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, then all the more, the assassination of the country’s highest spiritual leader cannot go unanswered. Responsibility for such actions does not disappear with time.

🚫That is why what is happening today should be seen not as a chain of isolated events, but as a long process: from the assassination of Soleimani and the demand to withdraw American forces from the region, to the gradual dismantling of the previous system of American influence in the Middle East.

- Khayal Muazzin

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

Trump: “We took over Venezuela. We have essentially taken over Iran. There has been no shooting for days.”

The reality:

Trump tried to signal “I’m in control, de-escalation till November”, but Iran has him trapped—so it’s escalation on Iran’s terms. Iran will keep Trump engaged throughout the US political campaign season, will keep Hormuz effectively closed, will increase economic pressure as Trump and Bessent try to deal with disarray in the energy and bond markets—which are now signaling disbelief in all the Trump - Bessent - Centcom jawboning. With Trump flailing about trying to make deals with Russia and China, while demonstrating to the world how unreliable the US is. Iran has gamed this out and this is the result Iran wanted, even demanded:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

1h

BREAKING: The US Military has struck three Iranian crude oil carriers in the Strait of Hormuz after stating that Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two US Navy warships.

“We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet,” CENTCOM says.

Look for another massive Iranian response.

Meanwhile, Bessent has sanctioned one Turkish bank and hinted that more Turkish banks will be sanctioned—for doing business with Iran. Turkey is a NATO ally, which places it lower on the pecking order than USrael. Turkey may be forced to openly take sides. Bessent also hinted that he will sanctions Chinese entities for doing business with Iran. Look for that to backfire big time—like Iran, China has long gamed all of this out. They’re ready. And they’re continuing to buy gold. Lots of it:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

19h

BREAKING: Global central banks purchased +23 tonnes of gold in July, marking their 4th consecutive monthly purchase.

This follows +51 tonnes in June, their 2nd-largest monthly purchase since November 2024.

In July, demand was led by China at +20 tonnes, bringing its year-to-date purchases to +60 tonnes.

Poland followed with +8 tonnes, lifting its total 2026 purchases to +90 tonnes.

Year-to-date, central banks have acquired +130 tonnes of gold, slightly trailing the +160 tonnes purchased over the same period last year.

...

Central bank gold demand remains incredibly strong.

All Trump’s wars continue to be a huge drag on US finances, so Trump has floated a new plan—in addition to his economic war on Canada. Jewish Nationalists will not allow Trump to pull out of the Middle East, but will they allow him to soak Euro vassals?

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

6h

The US wants its European satellite states to repay all US aid sent to Ukraine. The US instigated the war and is now outsourcing all costs to the Europeans. To the last Ukrainian and the last euro!

Well, it’s more complicated than just “the US instigated the war.” This war is preeminently a Bankers War, if there ever was one.

Unsurprisingly, the Treasury market continues to be roiled. The signaling of the Dutch in repatriating large amounts of gold from New York was decidedly negative. This is, too:

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

The world’s largest wealth fund may dump $80 BILLION of U.S Treasuries

Norway’s fund has proposed slashing U.S government bond exposure from 34% to 22% of its bond portfolio.

The official reasoning is “diversification.” Truthfully, decade-high yields and a $40 trillion debt pile doesn’t scream “safe haven” like it used to.

Norway’s wealth fund owns on average 1.5% of all listed companies globally.

Source: CNBC

Luke Gromen offers some interesting analysis on the connection between the bond market and the AI bubble—and the fate of the US economy. And it also ties in to the wars for Anglo-Zionist global domination. Seconded by the Kobeissi Letter:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

8h

If US hyperscalers are TBTF [Too Big To Fail] (de facto US Government backed), it would be illogical for investors to buy LT USTs rather than US hyperscaler bonds at slightly higher yields...

...which would continue sending LT UST yields higher, until we get to problematic levels.

.

The hyperscalers ARE the bond vigilantes...

...except they can afford to pay 8% and have their “math” still work, while Bessent can’t afford much above 4.8% before dysfunction resumes in UST markets.

Brad Setser @Brad_Setser

7h

Crazy chart from the amazing Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan.

6% of GDP US current account deficit here we come ...

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

3h

See Michael Lewis’ metaphor from the Big Short, about 2 guys, tied together at the waist, fighting to the death in a lifeboat

The death of one causes the death of the other

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

5h

In a nod to recent requests for me to speak more plainly on X, allow me to translate this to plain-speak:

Bonds must be crushed on a real basis or any US reshoring initiative will fail, because debt is so high rising interest rates will snuff out any reshoring before it starts.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender

During an ongoing joint address with U.S. Vice President JD Vance on building America’s industrial workforce, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rightly mentioned that any renewed effort to expand and improve the U.S.’s industrial capacity must be a long-term effort. He added that it must be an effort sustained through multiple administrations for the U.S. to realize the benefits of such a venture.

Tim Kensinger @TimKensingerAF

Sep 3

Agree 1000%. If Rubio is aware we need industrial policy spread across multiple administrations, if deindustrialization in America is that dire, why did he support war against Persia and proxy war against Russia at the same time? Can’t do that without industry, it’s insane

Expect increasing turmoil.

Last week we saw CIA Director Ratcliffe fly on a mission to Moscow, reportedly seeking to talk the Russians into a ceasefire in Ukraine, to allow for Ukraine to regroup and be rearmed to continue the war later. Ratcliffe barely got the time of day—his meetings were confined to one with the head of Russian intel, not any of the diplomatic people. This coming week the NY Jewish real estate contingent will be talking to their counterparts in Kiev. Meanwhile, the US continues to support Ukraine’s now failed drone and missile offensive against Russia.

Disturbingly, Germany—of all countries—is upping the offensive against Russia:

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

3h

Germany is preparing to attack Russia with 5,000 AI-guided long-range drones. Germany did not use to send such weapons because it would make Germany a participant in the war.

Not surprisingly, Russia is exhibiting no sense of humor about this development:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

6h

Russia warns German long-range missile sites WILL become legitimate military targets

The Russian Embassy in Berlin has warned that locations hosting Germany’s planned long-range missile systems will become “legitimate military targets” for Russia if the weapons are deployed against it.

“Critics of unrestrained German militarization rightly point out that the deployment sites of such weapons will inevitably become legitimate military targets for Russia.”

Germany is developing long-range precision missile and drone capabilities designed to strike targets at distances of up to 2,000 kilometers, according to the embassy, which says Moscow would regard their deployment as a direct threat to Russia and the Union State.

Germany can’t seem to get away from genocide:

I’m going to get to an edited partial transcript from The Duran, but to lead up to that I want to pivot quickly to China, bearing in mind that Xi Jinping is scheduled to arrive in DC later this month. Xi will arrive in the full knowledge that nothing he hears from Trump or any other American official can be trusted, and that Anglo-Zionist America will always be an implacable enemy of China.

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

6h

US is forcing Venezuelan default on $10 billion of debt to China, Venezuela’s largest creditor. The debt was repaid in oil that now ships to US and Israel.

I suspect China will compose an appropriate response.

Nic @puckrin

Wow.

China just got dealt a massive blow in Venezuela.

Beijing spent years financing Venezuela in exchange for access to its oil.

The US is now dismantling that relationship.

Chinese banks extended more than $60B in oil-backed loans to Venezuela, making Beijing one of Caracas’ most important creditors.

More than $10B is still owed.

Oil was central to how that debt got repaid.

But since the US takeover, Venezuelan crude shipments to China have fallen to zero, after reaching more than 600k barrels per day at points last year.

And Washington is making clear that China won’t have a claim on the oil revenues now being redirected under the new system.

The key is that China can probably replace the barrels.

Venezuela supplied just 4% of China’s crude imports in 2025.

What’s much harder to replace is the influence Beijing spent nearly 20 years & billions of dollars building.

China may lose far more in Venezuela than just the oil.

Yesterday we saw that India’s Modi had been forced into condemning the USraeli war on Iran. It turns out that that wasn’t the end of the story. The Ratcliffe mission to Moscow was only part of the US offensive to try to pressure Putin to back off from victory in Ukraine. Various BRICS countries were press ganged into trying to pressure Putin at the SCO conference. Two of the premier snakes in the world—Modi and Erdogan—led the charge. I found this conversation quite fascinating:

Modi, Erdogan and Tokayev Gang Up on Putin [at the SCO meeting]

Alex C.: The one theme that came out of this this summit, at least with regard to Russia, is that you had many of the leaders of Eurasian countries begging Russia to agree to a US ceasefire. What do you make of this?

Mercouris: This is exactly what happened. There was something that closely approximated to a gang up against Putin at Bishkek. And the leader was Narendra Modi of India. The long and the short of it was that they were all trying to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire. We’ve already spoken about President Lula of Brazil, who was not at Bishkek because Brazil is not a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. But Lula has already been pressing Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. But Modi himself weighed in, in a very public manner. Modi straightforwardly said that there has to be peace,

‘all the world wants peace between Russia and Ukraine. I am aware of many of the things that you’ve been telling me about the situation in the conflict area, but in spite of that, if war continues, humanity takes a step back. If peace comes, humanity takes a step forward. India will always support peace. India is the country of Mahatma Gandhi and of the Buddha. It always therefore stands for peace, and there needs to be a cessation of hostilities as soon as possible.’

It was as straightforward as hat. And I was looking at the footage of this meeting. I’ve followed Putin many times, and I could see that he was furious. He was extremely angry to be lectured by Modi in that kind of way. And it wasn’t just Modi. Erdogan was there. He was talking in much the same way. He was saying essentially the same kind of things. And Tokayev, the president of Kazakhstan, also supposedly an ally of Russia, apparently weighed in and said the same things. But one leader, ultimately perhaps the most important one, didn’t. And that was Xi Jinping.

...

A Russian journalist asked Putin, “Was Russia put under any special pressure in Bishkek?” And Putin said, “We weren’t put under any special pressure, but we had to listen to all our respected friends make their respected contributions about wanting the conflict to be ended quickly, but you know, this something that we’ve learned to expect by now. And we’ve got no problems with it.” When Putin talks like that, you know that he does have a problem with it. Putin wasn’t happy about it at all. But the key thing is, at the end of this meeting, Putin went away having conceded nothing. And the final statement that came out of the meeting in Bishkek didn’t refer to Ukraine at all. So, Putin held to his position. He refused to agree to a ceasefire. He had, as we will discuss in a moment, the backing of Xi. He won in effect a diplomatic victory.

Alex C: Do they really care, Modi and Tokayev and all of these guys, about the ceasefire, or is this just the US that is placing pressure on them? I mean the US is calling up Kazakhstan and India and they’re using leverage. They’ve got leverage over these countries in one form or another and they’re exerting that leverage to put pressure on Russia to agree to the ceasefire so that Ukraine can get the time that it needs to rearm and restart the war further down the line.

Brazil for example, I understand what Lula’s doing. He’s got elections. The US is probably telling Lula, “Look, we can make the elections easy for you or we can make the elections difficult for you. If you want the elections to go smoothly, well then you have to put pressure on Putin.” The US has those tools that they can put on on all of these countries, including BRICS members. They probably don’t have sufficient tools to put on China and that’s why you see a different reaction from China. But is Modi or Tokayev then going to go to the Americans and say, “I tried. I told Putin exactly what you told me to tell him. Now leave me alone.” Or do they really want do they really want to keep on pressing this issue with Russia?

Mercouris: You are absolutely correct. That is exactly what’s driving this. I think what perhaps particularly angered Putin about Modi’s comments was Modi trotting out people like the Buddha and Mahatma Gandhi and claiming that India is a country that always stands for peace. I’m not saying that India is a belligerent or war-like country, but India is perfectly prepared to use force to defend its interests.

...

What I learned in Moscow [Mercouris was there last week] was that after the BRICS conference in Kazan, in late 2024, when all the arrangements were made to set up all the various BRICS payment systems, basically nothing happened because first the Brazilians and then others showed extreme nervousness in moving forward with it. They were all scared of the US and the Russians were both scornful of this and deeply frustrated by it. This does make it look like BRICS is ultimately very weak. Collectively they are still very scared of the Americans.

China is different. And here the dynamic was completely different. The Chinese have released an extraordinarily long, as they always do, read out of Xi Jinping’s meeting with Putin. And it didn’t once mention Ukraine. I get the sense that the Chinese have put this topic of Ukraine totally to one side. They are forging forward with their relations with the Russians. There’s a lot of talk that the discussions on the pipeline are now resolved and that we could be hearing getting an announcement for this very very soon. But all sorts of other things, economic ideas, military ideas, all of that, that relationship remains very very strong and very very stable. I have no doubt at all that it was China that ensured that Ukraine was kept out of the SCO summit declaration’s final statement.

The Russians, if it had been just them, might not have had enough authority to prevent Ukraine from getting into the statement. But China and Russia together ensured that Ukraine was not mentioned at all. So it really doesn’t matter to Russia if Kazakhstan or India turns on them in this way. At the end of the day, given everything that’s happening in the Middle East with Iran, India needs the Russian oil for their own economy. Kazakhstan, sure, is influenced--maybe even certain parts of that society are captured by the US oligarch class. But at the end of the day, Kazakhstan without good relations with Russia is going nowhere. So, the US has its leverage and it can exert its leverage and its influence. But Russia knows that they have more leverage--or, at a minimum, an equal amount of leverage in the case of India and much more in the case of Kazakhstan.

The long and the short is that the Anglo-Zionists, thwarted militarily, are still trying a full global pressure campaign against Russia and, therefore, China. Xi will come to DC knowing that.

Let’s finish with some economic/financial news. Because that’s ultimately what all these wars are about—maintaining the privileged financialized status of our rulers. They are the house in the Wall St. casino. The casino has to be kept pumped up to keep Trump in office in order to continue prosecuting this global war.

Did you see what happened when the “good” employment news came out? The markets tanked. That was bad news for the casino because it meant that the Fed would be more likely to raise the cost of money to play with. Trump immediately took drastic steps to ramp up inflation. Read it:

Steve Hanke @steve_hanke

1h

The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, three times higher than expectations.

Not surprised. The money supply is surging, with Divisia M4 growing at 7.9%/yr.

Broad money growth determines the growth rate of nominal GDP (real growth + inflation).

So here’s the tell that this financialized economy is being run for the insiders.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

1h

The system is broken.

You know the system is broken when stocks FALL after the US unexpectedly adds +162,000 jobs in a month, TRIPLING expectations.

Why? Because a strong jobs report means a higher chance of rate hikes.

This the product 60-straight months of 2%+ inflation.

Markets now “want” a labor market collapse.

Wow! Good News for Americans is … bad news for their rulers? Trump rose to the occasion:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

1h

BREAKING: President Trump calls on the Fed to cut interest rates after the August jobs report nearly triples expectations.

Trump also threatens to “stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit” if the Fed does not cut rates.

The Fed “must get smart,” Trump says.

September 16th is about to be a wild day.

We now have President Trump threatening to “stop trading” with all countries that the US has a trade deficit with if the Fed does not CUT rates.

This would effectively cut off trade with ~50% of all US trading partners, including Mexico, China, Taiwan, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and India.

…

It’s a crazy world. If only we had a vote.

Ricky Zaccaglino @RickyTheGuido

22h

No matter who you vote for, you get Miriam Adelson as your president.

Matt Bracken @Matt_Bracken48

1h

If you have nothing to hide, why are you worried about Flock cameras on every corner, all of them stitched together by A.I., feeding everything, [including your internet and cell phone history and CC purchases] to the local mega data center that you didn’t want? I mean, what could go wrong? Are you a cave man? It’s for your own protection!

It’s all crashing and burning, but we’ve barely begun to feel the full effects.

FP: Trump may one day come to see those heady days at the start of this year as the period in which he peaked in terms of global influence. And then things started to go downhill. Cresting and then declining should be no surprise; it happens to everyone and everything. But Trump, now focused more on ballrooms and pools than on the Nobel Peace Prize he lobbied for just one year ago, only has himself to blame for prematurely morphing into something resembling a lame duck. The chief cause is surely his decision in February to go to war against Iran. More than six months in, the conflict has drained U.S. resources, raised the cost of living, and turned Trump into one of the most unpopular presidents in recorded history. In a second term of very few leaks, Trump’s once loyal cabinet officials are now telling reporters that their boss ignored their concerns about attempting regime change in Iran...

First order of business when Congress returns should be impeachment. Problem? Congress was in on it. Who thinks Trump really launched a major war without a wink and a nod from Congress? The whole point was to avoid a public debate, because one thing these people can do is read the polls. They all thought that the people paying them knew what they were doing—that it would all be over, over the weekend.

So impeaching for the war looks dicey. How about impeaching for a presidency that turns out to have been nothing but a huge grift and ego trip? Oh, yeah. One of the crowd, just on a bigger scale. Lying to the American people—remember when Trump told us all that Jared wouldn’t have any role in Trump 2.0? Joke’s on us.