Is this an off-ramp for Trump—would it allow him to draw down US forces in the region?

Will Netanyahu and the Jewish Nationalists allow Trump to get away with this, and would they abide by it if Trump insists?

As presented, the details aren’t totally clear, but this is what’s “out there” on the Interwebs. And here’s an important caveat via Judge Nap:

The foreign ministry spokesperson for Pakistan basically says none of the specifications that have been raised in recent days regarding the various aspects of the talks can be confirmed.

So, FWIW, here’s what’s “out there”:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

EXPECTED TERMS IN “FINAL DRAFT” OF US-IRAN AGREEMENT:

1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts

2. All parties mutually agree to refrain from targeting infrastructure

3. Freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed under a “joint monitoring mechanism”

4. Sanctions will be “gradually lifted” in exchange for Iran’s compliance with the terms of the deal

5. Negotiations on outstanding issues will begin within a maximum of 7 days

6. Iran’s President Pezeshkian is leading efforts to restrain the IRGC from overstepping on political and diplomatic policy-making

The agreement is expected to be announced within the next “few hours.”

Pakistani officials are reportedly brokering the deal.

First, “on all fronts” means Lebanon at a minimum—and quite possibly Gaza and the West Bank. Any of those are deal breakers for Jewish Nationalists. Does Trump have the cajones to force the issue? I have a hard time seeing it, but he’s gotta be politically desperate.

Second, who is part of the “joint monitoring mechanism”. Obviously Iran. Is it obvious that the US would also be, or could it be Oman?

Third, does “freedom of navigation” preclude tolls? Does it preclude Iranian monitoring of traffic? Does it allow US military access to Iran’s territorial waters?

Fourth, what are the “outstanding issues”? We know that up till know the “outstanding issues”—as presented by Iran and the US—have proven to be mutually exclusive. What happens if the impasse continues? Will Russia get involved, as custodian of Iran’s enriched uranium, an idea that has frequently been raised in the past? That would be a key “outstanding issue”. Reports are that both Iran and Trump agreed to that in the recent past—the deal was then, presumptively, vetoed by Jewish Nationalists who are opposed to any deal. Trump is undoubtedly, IMO, looking for any deal at this point that would allow him to claim that it’s “better than Obama’s.” But he’ll have to get tough with the Jewish Nationalists—in Israel, but more importantly, in America. But Iran has Trump totally over a barrel. The low info voters in KY may not understand what Trump has done to America—screwed America and Americans good and hard—but Trump knows the position he’s in. And he knows that China and Russia aren’t about to bail him out.

Another hard reality. The damage to the US and the world economy has long since been done. To give you some idea of just how bad things are—and they’re even worse elsewhere. Well, China’s OK:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

1h

US oil inventories are collapsing:

Total US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), fell by -17.8 million barrels last week, the largest weekly drawdown in history.

Commercial crude inventories fell -7.9 million barrels, the biggest decline since mid-February.

Furthermore, the SPR alone shed -9.9 million barrels, the largest weekly drain on record.

This marks the 8th consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak in 3 years.

Since the Iran War began, 42 million barrels, or 10% of the entire US SPR, have been drained, mostly via exports to Asia.

The SPR now stands at 374 million barrels, the lowest since July 2024, leaving the US with a significantly reduced buffer against future supply shocks.

The US emergency oil cushion is disappearing faster than at any point in history.

The effects of what Trump has done are still developing, filtering down to ordinary Americans, and spreading around the world. The last report of the PPI was at 6%—and has yet to have its impact on retail prices. It will be many months—likely even years—before things improve. November isn’t that far away in this context.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

Bizarre…and shows the extent of delusional thinking driving Trump’s war on Iran

Now delusional thinking has met escalation reality

And the world is paying the price

Here’s a good 6 minute video on the topic.

Joe Kent weighed in with his own take. His take is slightly different than mine--although that may simply be a matter of emphasis (as you’ll see, below). Obviously, Kent was an insider, more or less, to all that went down. However, I note that if the the idea was really for the Jewish Nationalists “to convince the Trump administration that they had a plan,” then it failed utterly. Reaction from key officials following Netanyahu’s sales pitch was that it was “bullshit,” “fantasy”, or worse. Nevertheless, whatever the scheme, it worked to get Trump in with no way out. Or, in the alternative, it gave Trump cover—however bizarre—to claim that he was sincerely convinced by Netanyahu, that he agreed to a plan, rather than merely taking orders. That would have been something like treason.

Joe Kent @joekent16jan19

It should be obvious by now that Israel’s goal was not to actually come up with a viable regime change plan, but to convince the Trump administration that they had a plan.

Israel’s primary goal was to get us into this war, knowing that once we were in it we’d have a hard time leaving. So far their actual plan is working.

Israel is comfortable with Iran spiraling into chaos & this war being a long & costly slog for us. Until we realize that Israel has drastically different objectives in this war we will be stuck in the current cycle.

Will Schryver weighs in more generally, and I agree with him completely. However, I’ll add this--which I believe Schryver would agree with: Non-retreat, status quo as it now is, can’t endure and will also lead to “relinquishment of empire.” It’s ultimately a matter of optics and how much suffering Trump is ready to inflict on the world--including America--for the sake of optics. We have yet to see the limit to that.

Will Schryver @imetatronink

American withdrawal from the current fight against Iran will never be reversed. Withdrawing now means ceding the Persian Gulf region to Iran and its friends.

There is no military option to evade strategic defeat, but retreat means the relinquishment of empire.

Thus the dilemma.

It’s the old rock and a hard place problem. Scylla and Charybdis.

Robert Pape with some general observations that play into all the above.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

Iran threatens to retaliate for Trump’s next attack beyond the ME

Based on its March 21 missile attack against Diego Garcia, this puts at risk British Royal Air Force base in Cyprus, U.S./NATO bases in Romania and Hungary and Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

[Raul Castro indicted]

Trump is not so much sending signals as…

Creating chaos

Escalation in Cuba won’t solve Iran…overstretch will embolden Iranian leaders

Deflection?

BTW, in this 15 minute video, Pape continues to insist that, sooner or later, the logic of the Escalation Trap will lead to an attempted ground invasion of Iran. I disagree, but agree that Trump is trapped.

Let’s pivot to Russia. The crazy Euros insist on continuing to poke The Bear. Apparently the Swedes can’t get over the loss of their Baltic empire several centuries ago.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson has openly stated that Sweden should do everything possible to help Ukraine direct its drones to strike Russian territory.

Ditto for the Brits, still hankering after a Black Sea empire—and beyond. The “Great Game”.

Craig Murray @CraigMurrayOrg

The Russians intercepted an RAF spy plane

20 miles from Russia and 2000 miles from the UK.

UK accuses Russia of aggression.

These people are totally nuts. By the way, the Brits are doing this while Starmer is now officially buying Russian oil again--just with the merest of fig leaves. What the Anglo-Zionists hath wrought!

China

Chinese FM Wang Yi calls out Trump for lying. On the one hand this is pretty routine, on the other hand it could be quite important if it comes to Trump attacking Iran again--or even just trying to hang in there.

InfoGram @_InfoGram_

21h

THIS IS MASSIVE FROM  CHINA

Trump: “China agreed not to supply weapons to Iran. I talked to them.”

China FM:  “We want to end rumors that China agreed with the U.S. not to supply weapons to Iran.”

“To be clear: no such communication occurred. China has neither confirmed nor denied supplying weapons to Iran.”

“Our security agreements and defense cooperation are sovereign matters for China alone. No foreign country may interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

Trump getting humiliated every hour.

De-dollarization continues.

Trump being Trump:

Trump touts his popularity, at home (Israel) and abroad (China):

Aaron Rupar @atrupar 

Trump: “I’m right now at 99% in Israel. I could run for prime minister, so maybe after I do this, I’ll go to Israel and run for prime minister.”

Hmmm. Does Trump have a fallback plan for the eventuality that things get too hot for him in America?

This is just so pathetic, so disgraceful:

Disclose.tv @disclosetv

NOW - Trump says he thinks “it’s good,” that Putin and Xi are meeting but doesn’t think “the ceremony was quite as brilliant as mine, I watched, I think we topped them.”

Tucker had a powerful retrospective in the wake of Massie’s defeat. For context, Tucker is relating that on the morning of Trump’s second inauguration, at Trump’s invitation, he and Charlie Kirk went to church with Trump (and Miriam Adelson).

Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlson

The Israel lobby takes out Thomas Massie and kills MAGA in the process. The good news is, we’ve now confirmed how the system works.

That morning, the morning of the inauguration, both Charlie Kirk and I believed that Donald Trump had meant what he said in speech after speech, in public, in conversations with us, endless conversations with both of us on this exact topic. And so, if you’re trying now to remember the Donald Trump that we thought was real on the morning of the inauguration, here’s a reminder. This is a speech that Trump gave in 2020:

Trump: Biden shipped away our jobs, threw open our borders, and sent our youth to fight in these crazy endless wars. And it’s one of the reasons the military I’m not saying the military is in love with me. The soldiers are. The top people in the Pentagon probably aren’t because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy. Let’s bring our soldiers back home. Some people don’t like to come home. Some people like to continue to spend money. One cold-hearted globalist betrayal after another. That’s what it was.

One coldhearted globalist betrayal after another. That’s what it was. And he was right. That’s exactly what it was. One cold-hearted globalist betrayal after another. Betrayals of the United States and its future. The future of our children, including the children that your children may not have because of those betrayals. Charlie Kirk was very upset about this. He was articulate in explaining why he was upset about it and he sincerely believed that Trump would change it. Trump and people like Thomas Massie. It’s hard to imagine what he would think about the remarks that Donald Trump, the same man that he voted for and campaigned for, went to pray for in the church the morning of the inauguration, what he would have thought of the Donald Trump on display yesterday when he said this. Watch:

Trump: I’m right now at 99% in Israel. I could run for prime minister. So maybe after I do this, I’ll go to Israel, run for prime minister. I had a poll this morning. I’m 99%.

So that’s good. The president of the United States bragging about his popularity in a foreign country. “I’m 99% in Israel.” Unmentioned is the fact that he’s 35% in the United States. 35% support from Americans, the people he pledged to represent, to fight for, whose side he promised to take in every conflict, foreign and domestic. And yet there he is bragging about how popular he is in a foreign country, the same country that got us into the war that is causing to some extent his unpopularity in this country.

• NONE of USrael’s strategic objectives had been achieved—not regime change, not civil collapse, not depletion of Iran’s military capabilities, not control over Hormuz. The effectiveness of Iran’s air defense was increasing by the day.

• In that light, a ceasefire—sought by Trump—was a crowning disaster, as it has provided Iran with precious time to regroup, prepare for the future, coordinate with its strategic partners—and incorporate new lessons learned as well as new capabilities.

• By contrast, any renewed war on the part of USrael will almost certainly involve the same “stuff” that was used previously, just restocked. Congress is informing us today that the US lost at least 42 aircraft. We already know about the significant devastation of 13 US regional bases.

The reality of the ceasefire, from a military perspective, is that it greatly benefits Iran and weakens any negotiating leverage that Trump may have had before his latest sneak attack. Read Larry Johnson today. Russia and China are supplying Iran with significant new military capabilities, but they’re also working assiduously to detach KSA and Qatar from cooperation with USrael, to head off a renewed bombing campaign. My guess is that Pakistan is also heavily involved, behind the scenes:

Trump Wants to Attack Iran, But Does Saudi Arabia Hold the Keys?

Of course, the war was never just kinetic—it was also economic. But that is developing into a massive disaster, as well. The attempt at blockading Hormuz is falling flat in terms of harming Iran, while almost incalculable harm is being done to the overall Anglo-Zionist aligned economy. In fact, important portions of that bloc are breaking off, while the core of BRICS—Russia, China, Iran—are weathering the Anglo-Zionist induced economic storm in better shape.

One signal of Trump’s defeat is his inability to continue to enforce sanctions or initiate a blockade against Russia and China. Meanwhile, other allies break ranks. Here’s an impressionistic roundup—there’s more, of course:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

2h

 IRGC Navy:

“Over the past 24 hours, 26 vessels- including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercia vessels--transited the Strait of Hormuz with coordination and security provided by the IRGC Navy.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz is ongoing with permits obtained and in coordination with the IRGC Navy”

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

19h

Crossing the Strait of Hormuz tonight:

Russian-owned Oil Tanker “ATMOS”

Chinese-owned Oil Tanker “OCEAN LILY”

Chinese-owned Oil Tanker “YUAN GUI YANG”

Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews

9h

BREAKING: South Korean FM Cho Hyun has said a Korean crude vessel is passing through the Strait of Hormuz in cooperation with Iranian authorities, Reuters reports.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

7h

The Europeans are now starting to beg Russia to send them diesel. The situation is clearly desperate yet still people are not being told. They should be restricting consumption now rather than this extend and pretend.

TASS @tassagency_en

The United Kingdom has authorized the import of diesel fuel and jet fuel produced from Russian oil in third countries, as stated in a license issued by the Department for Business and Trade: https://vk.cc/cXY75n

Trump’s pathetic attempt to court China, to peel China away from Iran and Russia has, of course, fallen flat. Trump’s pilgrimage to Beijing has been eclipsed by Putin’s subsequent—and far more consequential—visit that has just concluded:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

KREMLIN BURIES “SPIRIT OF ANCHORAGE”?

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, when asked whether it was time to drop the “spirit of Anchorage” and start talking about the “spirit of Beijing” instead:

“Well, probably. The spirit of Beijing exists. I don’t know about the spirit of Anchorage. I have never once used that phrase.”

The “spirit of Anchorage” refers to the Trump-Putin summit held in Alaska on August 15, 2025, which Russian officials repeatedly invoked as the framework for any Ukraine settlement.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics·

3h

While Putin and Xi are signing deals in Bejing, let’s check in on Donald’s deals with China.

Oh... never mind.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

BREAKING:

China banned Nvidia’s RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip while Jensen Huang was visiting China with President Trump last week, per FT.

Further evidence is surfacing that indicates that financial woes for the US are playing a major role in delaying the renewed war that Jewish Nationalists so desperately desire—to the extent of marking new spending records to stock Congress with compliant shabbos goy Israel-Firsters.

Marjorie Taylor Greene @mtgreenee

3h

It’s not an antisemitic conspiracy theory when a foreign lobby openly brags that they bought two congressional seats with candidates who will be loyal to Israel.

But the hard reality is that interest rates are inexorably approaching levels that could crash the USD and more. It doesn’t help that, since Trump’s sneak attack on Iran, China and Iran have each dumped over $40B in Treasuries, for a combined total of ~$90B—with no sign at all of a let up. No wonder recent Treasury auctions have been a disaster.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

4h

US interest rates are now highly correlated to the fake Brent price. This explains the manipulation. The goal is not to drive down actual energy costs - that is impossible - rather the goal is to keep a lid on US borrowing rates. Last Days of Rome vibe.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

4h

Highest yields since the Great Recession. But its worse than that. Look at the Fed Funds rate relative to the 30y: the yield curve is much steeper. This is “forced high rates” not “chosen high rates” as in 2007.

Despite primary triumphs, this regime is in scramble mode. They’re stuck in a stupid war that is unraveling US hegemony—both military and economic. And the US economy—with the latest Producer Price Index hitting 6%—is headed for very rough times in the coming months. There are no obvious exits.

But that was followed by an explicit TACO tweet, for the time being. Trump said “two or three days, maybe next week.” He also mumbled something about wanting to sell the Brooklyn Bridge.

Trump: May Have To Give Iran Another “Big Hit” - It Has “Two Or Three” Days To Come To Table

President Trump has on Tuesday while fielding questions from reporters repeated his line that Iran is ‘begging’ for a deal. “They’re begging to make a deal. I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. We may have to give them another big hit. You’ll know very soon.”

His threat to give them another “big hit” was coupled with the assertion that he was just one hour away from ordering new attacks on Iran Monday, but was asked by Gulf allies to given diplomacy just a little longer:

Trump: “I was an hour away” from striking Iran on Monday.

There was also the below moment where he again talked timeline, saying he’s ready to resume military action in a few ‘days’ if Iran doesn’t comply:

Reporter: How many days does Iran have to come to the table?

Trump: Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week. A limited period of time.

What was behind Trump’s latest TACO move?

On the one hand, the NYT reports that the generals are getting cold feet:

Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork

Trump reportedly paused additional strikes on Iran partly over Pentagon concerns that Tehran was becoming more effective at tracking U.S. air operations and improving its air defenses - NYT

We do know that Iran has downed multiple drones in recent days, and what we don’t know may be even more concerning—tracking of manned air platforms, the ones that deliver stand off munitions. Presumably at least some of Iran’s seemingly enhanced capabilities are also due to Russo-Chinese support. This makes complete sense. And even the Israelis recognize that Iran holds the real high cards:

Iran Now Has More Incentive To Resist US Demands, Even If War Restarts: Israeli Think Tank

At this point even hawkish Israeli think tank pundits are increasingly admitting that Iran currently has certain leverage and an edge when it comes to dealing with the United States, and the so far stalled and failed peace talks to end the war.

…

Actually, the Israeli analysis (follow the link) has nothing new to offer. All they’re saying is that Trump’s latest TACO simply confirms basic insights that Iran has long held regarding Trump and the US. In other words, Iran has, once again, faced Trump down based on the same assumptions that they entered the war with. Their strategy has simply been borne out. And, as always, Iran’s trump card is control of Hormuz—something Trump should have considered long ago. It’s too late now.

On the other hand, economic/financial considerations—admittedly, triggered by the war—may well have played a role in the TACO. Trump obviously has no qualms about killing people and committing war crimes or even genocide. But we’ve also seen in the past that Trump’s tweets about a “deal” being near and other harbingers of peace have repeatedly been used to juice the financial markets when they get jittery over rumors of war. The bond market, in particular is getting very jittery, indeed—perhaps about more war or perhaps just in general. The fact is that rates of around 4.5% in the 10 year treasury market have appeared in the past to be the trigger for a TACO. So, consider:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

10y UST yield now up 70bps since Iran war started.

Or this:

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Bond markets are flashing red.

Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%.

This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening.

What is happening? Let us explain.

…

Zerohedge places this in the context of the price of oil, which is rising aggressively. Renewed war will only exacerbate what is unsustainable for the world economy:

“Door Of Doom” Looms As 30 Year Yield Soars To 19 Year High After Two Huge Treasury Block Sales

Bond yields continued to move sharply higher today, driven in large part by the aggressive repricing in the oil strip as markets (finally) price in a lengthy disruption to Hormuz traffic which has pushed year-end prices higher by about $12 in the past month.

The result has been a spike across virtually all tenors:

• *US 2-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.11%, HIGHEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2025

• *TREASURY 5- AND 7-YEAR YIELDS RISE 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY

• *US 30-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 5.195%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2007

…

According to Bloomberg, the spike in 10 year yields was caused by two massive trades of 10 year bonds—that at a time when Treasury is struggling to auction off its issues.

But more importantly, the 30Y is about to rise above 5.20%, some 20bps higher than what Michael Hartnett warned in his last two Flow Shows is the "door of doom" red line for the bond market.

There may be something else—albeit related—going on, and that relates to the Jewish Nationalist effort to unseat Thomas Massie in KY today. Jewish Supremacist groups have lavished vast amounts of money on Massie’s challenger, who is running strictly on a War and More War platform. I’ve seen estimates for Jewish Supremacist spending on this campaign as high as $35M in total, with AIPAC contributing a good half of that. Yet the election remains very close. Massie appears to have a slight lead, despite all the money and last minute oppo research smears. What the polls have shone is reflected nationwide in GOP numbers: The MAGA vote is almost exclusively a Boomer vote now. Republicans under 65 don’t want war and are concerned about the erosion of the American way of life. No doubt Trump’s open avowal that he doesn’t care about the concerns of Americans regarding their cost of living—their cost of just getting by or making ends meet—has contributed to the polling situation.

Here’s my point. In the background to debates about Trump waging war on the world at the behest of Jewish Supremacists, while crushing Americans, there is also the related terrible economic news. For example:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:  Financial Times reports that Trump’s war has cost Americans an additional $40 billion in fuel which has exceeded the cost of repairing the country’s bridges or restarting the air traffic control system.

Gasoline prices in the US have increased by 51% to $4.51 per gallon and diesel by 54% to $5.65, the steepest rise among G7 countries.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Credit card serious delinquencies rose +0.4 percentage points in Q1 2026, to 13.1%, the highest since Q4 2010.

This is only below the 2010 peak of 13.7%, in the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Since Q3 2022, serious credit card delinquencies have surged +5.5 percentage points, even larger than the +3.9 point increase in 2007-2010.

Furthermore, student loan 90+ days delinquencies jumped +0.7 percentage points in Q1 2026, to 10.3%, the highest since Q1 2020.

Auto loan serious delinquencies increased +0.4 percentage points, to 5.6%, the highest on record.

US consumers are falling behind debt at a crisis pace.

American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020.

The second half of 2026 is going to be interesting to say the least.

This current Trump regime may be the first to prosecute war on a massive scale without any input save that of a president’s say so—not even any significant address to the American people, mostly just one-off comments to MSM reporters and bullshit social media gaslighting that portray their author as a world bestriding colossus of war, crushing all opposition. Opposition in Congress has been limited almost exclusively to partisan sniping, rather than principled debate. And now Trump, having suffered a humiliating defeat in his second go at Iran, having failed to get Xi’s blessing for more war, is preparing—as it seems—for what the Jewish Nationalist overlords who own our politicians and run America regard as the now or never moment. And if it’s their now or never moment, then it’s the same for their frontman, Trump.

Just to provide a picture of where we are as a nation and a people, here is a snapshot of the latest polling—which offers no new insights that previous polling hasn’t provided. As usual, you can tell from the numbers that Independents are a major portion of the electorate. The only war support of any moment comes from the Boomer GOPers—even younger Republicans oppose Trump’s wars. No matter. No address to the nation, just another sneak attack, or attempt at such:

In the face of such massive American rejection of this war for Jewish Supremacy, Trump is touting a war of genocide against Iran—the kind of war Jewish Supremacists prefer. Sean Foo captures the mood:

The moment the China summit ended Trump immediately went back into full war mode against Iran. And the rhetoric coming out right now is absolutely insane. Just go on to True Social and what do you see? Massive American flags, arrows all across the Middle East pointing towards Iran.

We have threat after threat and messages hinting at escalation strikes and even broader military action. At one point Trump literally warned, “For Iran, the clock is ticking and they better move fast or there won’t be anything left of them.”

Now, that’s a crazy statement. Honestly, what’s even crazier is that it feels like no one’s economic or financial well being matters anymore. Not that of Americans, not of allies, not of global markets, because if this escalates further, everyone is going to pay the price. You’re going to have gasoline prices explode, inflation is going to surge, and bond markets are going to implode. And yet, Washington still appears willing to push forward. Lindsey Graham and many hawks in Washington are openly signaling that this conflict may need to escalate harder before negotiations can even happen.

Q: Do you agree with the president that he shouldn’t be taking Americans financial situation into account when dealing with Iran?

Lindsey!: That’s his Churchill moment. When Churchill came into power, he promised blood, sweat, toil, heartache. Do I worry about gas prices? Yes. But President Trump’s right. The biggest threat to the stability in the world is a nuclear armed Iran. And whatever price we have to pay, we will pay.

Trump came back from China without the one thing he desperately needed--real strategic support against Iran. China is not going to help the United States wage this war. And the moment Trump realized that, his rhetoric immediately became more and more aggressive again. There are already reports that Trump has been speaking directly with Netanyahu again about Iran and about the next steps they’re going to take, which kind of tells you something big is coming soon. It’s just over the horizon, because the gap between what Washington wants and what Iran is demanding is now so massive that compromise is quite impossible here.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

19h

Trump is sending a clear message:

The war is NOT over

The next shock is coming,

Including to the world economy

Of course, when Churchill—a certifiable sociopath—came into power, England was already immersed in war. Churchill had not just run a national election campaign—as Trump had—promising an end to the wars that Americans have come to hate and reject. Instead, Trump has given us non-stop war, kidnapping, inhuman blockades, and indecent bullying. Without any authorization from our elected representatives—only from the money interests who supported him.

Alastair Crooke, also this morning, sketches out the big picture of the now or never moment [edited for written format]:

[The] ideologues in Washington and Tel Aviv, ... what is their end game here? I think the endgame is the belief that this moment is now or never. That if they don’t do the war on Iran now—a war that will damage or really bring down Iran—it’s never going to happen. There’s never again going to be a president--whether a Jewish president or a president as Jewish orientated as Trump--in the United States who will be able to destroy Iran. And if Iran is not destroyed in this next period, then Iran emerges in a very strong, potentially dominant, position in the region--and Israel correspondingly becomes a defeated asset in this region.

This, of course, is anathema, because it means a shift in power away from those who support Israeli predominance in the world and the effects of Israeli predominance spread more widely across Europe and the United States. This would shatter the whole power structure behind the push for securing a [Jewish] predominance not only in the region but--as Netanyahu says--to make Israel a global power and influence.

You and I, of course, were not privy to the private conversations that President Trump had with President Xi last week, nor will we be privy to the private conversations that President Putin will have with President Xi this week. But one would think that the Pentagon and Tel Aviv would know that Russia and China will not allow Iran to fall. But at the same time it’s seen to be too humiliating to simply accept that Iran has broken free from the fetters and bonds that have held it for 47 years in this cage of sanctions and tariffs and UN resolutions and IEA inspections. Iran is going to reassert its sovereignty, and that is something Russia and China have strongly supported--the fact that Iran is fighting for its sovereignty. They endorse that and they will not allow that sovereignty to be crushed in the political interests of one man and Netanyahu.

Russia and China know that the Jewish Nationalist war on Iran is existential not only for Iran but also for them. Yet Trump and Congress—under direction and control—appear set to plunge forward without regard for the interests of Americans. As nearly as I can tell the last remaining real hope to avoid another disastrous war rests in Beijing and Moscow. Reports are that both Russia and China have told Trump repeatedly that a resumed bombing campaign in “unacceptable.” During the ceasefire they have been actively assisting Iran to prepare for a resumed war. Putin will be in Beijing this week. Will Trump go to war?

Many readers have come to Meaning in History from Elizabeth Nickson’s substack, so I’m glad to return the favor. Nickson, in a wide ranging article, sketches out the hubristic grift that the ruling class of the West—prominently including hangers on such as the Trumps, Kushners, and Witkoffs—are engaged in. And remember—they’re doing this without our consent or even that of our elected—but otherwise fully owned—representatives.

The Gleaming City of the Future will Rise on Gaza’s Blasted Heath - The Fever Dream of Our AI Overlords. And the Trump kids.

You cannot conceive the scope of this plan. It blows the Old World Order out of its socks.

Over many many visits, public and private, the Trump team in office - and the family when not - have been building the future.

And not just the future for the Middle East, a clear alternate to the New World Order dreamed up by factotums at the UN, WEF, Atlantic Council, and Chatham House, backed by fully insolvent, corrupted European aristocrats and bankers.

Saturday I quoted Robert Barnes regarding the incredible AIPAC drive to defeat Thomas Massie in a primary election:

Robert Barnes @barnes_law

The highest amount spent per potential voter in any campaign on negative ads is about $2/voter. The negative campaign ads against Massie are more than 50 times higher at more than $100/voter. Unheard of & unprecedented.

Here’s a further update on that election and the candidate that AIPAC hopes Boomers will put into Congress:

Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal

“What Gallrein represents is something both parties have been quietly building toward for twenty-five years: the national security state as its own source of political legitimacy, floating above democratic accountability, not answerable to the public it claims to serve.”

He also represents the subjugation of the national interest to Israeli exceptionalism

Ken Klippenstein @kenklippenstein

I went through all of Ed Gallrein’s interviews and this guy is laughably deep state. He literally says his background is classified, cites anonymous endorsements from unnamed national security officials, and more:

Iran War vs. Epstein Files

Politician whose background is secret challenges one who released Epstein files

Shadow of Ezra @ShadowofEzra

Thomas Massie says he has the entire Israeli establishment panicking as AIPAC reportedly dumps another emergency $3 million into the race to save his opponent.

Massie says the deployment of Pete Hegseth is a desperate move and claims President Trump is “losing sleep” over the race.

“They’re panicked and haven’t been able to gain a lead in this race.”

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

37m

BREAKING: The US has sent a list of “conditions” to Iran for a potential ceasefire deal, per Iranian state media.

Terms include:

1. Iran will not be compensated for damages incurred in the war

2. Iran transfers 400kg of uranium to the US

3. Only one nuclear facility is permitted to remain active

4. No release of Iran’s frozen assets

5. The ceasefire on all fronts is conditional on holding negotiations

It has now been 78 days since the Iran War began.

.

BREAKING: Iran has responded to the US’ list of “conditions” to reach a peace deal to end the war.

Iran’s conditions include:

1. Ending the war on all fronts across the Middle East

2. Lifting of US sanctions on Iran

3. Releasing of all Iranian frozen funds

4. Compensation for war damages

5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz

The US explicitly lists two of Iran’s five conditions as NOT occurring in their “pre-conditions” for a deal.

Trump as Mafia operator:

Rybar in English @rybar_en

Trump the Trader

Trump is not a traditional statesman but a classic bazaar trader with a nuclear briefcase. He thinks primarily in terms of profit for his team and supporting clans, [i.e., for The Family, or, La Cosa Nostra] rather than state reputation or long-term strategy.

Every move — from a tweet to a strike on Iran — has an economic [financial?] rationale. Foreign policy becomes an extended price list: first look at charts and money, then adjust slogans and flags.

This explains both target selection and negotiation style. Trump haggles simultaneously with allies, adversaries, and his own establishment to get the most profitable configuration. Publicly it is sold as “America First,” but in practice it is “Profit First.”

For those still seeing the US as a monolithic rational actor, this is an unpleasant revelation. On the other end is a trader who will change the price tag if demand spikes.

One example among many—and not very reassuring. Mafia Don? Classic Trader? Master Spy?

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 Trump purchased between $247,000 and $630,000 in Palantir stock during Q1 2026, including at least seven transactions in March alone totaling up to $530,000, weeks before publicly praising the company on Truth Social as its shares hit their worst week in over a year.

As the software selloff accelerated amid the Iran war and Michael Burry publicly shorted the stock, Trump posted on Truth Social: “Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and equipment. Just ask our enemies!!!”

Palantir’s tools have been used to identify targets in Iran. The company holds active Pentagon contracts and is among the defense tech firms actively cultivating ties with the White House as Trump pushes military modernization.

Trump Organization says all holdings sit in fully discretionary accounts managed by independent third parties via automated systems, with Trump and his family receiving no advance notice of trades. The White House says assets are held in a trust run by his children. “There are no conflicts of interest,” said spokesman David Ingle.

Trump’s Q1 tech buying extended well beyond Palantir, with positions in Nvidia ($1M-$5M), ServiceNow, Workday, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Broadcom.

BOND IN BEIJING.

It’s convenient to start with the coming shortages:

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

US supplies of motor oils expected to see 40% shortfall.

In a nation that depends heavily on driving everywhere and trucks for freight deliveries this could be seriously disruptive.

“We’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.”

--Internal AutoZone Memo

Nissan just sent a memo to its US dealer network warning of engine oil supply constraints.

Effective May 1st, allocation of Nissan Genuine Oil (including Mobil and Mobil 1 variants) has been cut to 55% of prior year volumes.

On a bigger picture scale. The sulphur shortfall brought about by the Anglo-Zionist war on Iran impacts not only industry but … agriculture. The impact is happening even as we speak.

Robert Friedland @robert_ivanhoe

The indefatigable genius, Craig Tindale, has done it once again with a deep-dive analysis on the supply crunch of the chemicals needed to make the world go round.

The situation the world finds itself in has never before been articulated as clearly as Craig has analysed it here… All those that care how our world is changing, with absurdly profound consequences, should IMMEDIATELY READ his analysis.

@ctindale explains how chemical reagents have overtaken geology as THE main bottleneck impacting the global supply chain of metals.

An unprecedented shock has been created in the supply of sulphur and sulphuric acid. Initially, this was caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz… and further exasperated by subsequent export restrictions imposed by other major exporters of sulphur and sulphuric acid as they protect their own industries.

As Craig points out, sulphuric acid is essential in the production of critical metals, such as copper, nickel, cobalt, uranium and rare earths… He goes into detail on how the growing contraction in the supply of acid is already impacting the production of critical metals in Chile, Africa, Indonesia and Kazakhstan.

Not to be forgotten is that over 50% of the world’s sulphuric acid is used in the production of fertilizer. The supply shock is also having a significant impact on the security of food supply. Governments have a priority to ensure their populations have enough food to eat at a price they can afford to eat it at….leading to further export restrictions.

And so, re agriculture:

Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance

Major US fertilizer producer Mosaic is losing money in the midst of a fertilizer crisis.

- Sulfuric acid is a major input in phosphate fertilizer production

- ~30% of global sulfur is gone due to Hormuz

- China, the #1 exporter, is banning sulfuric acid

As a result, sulfuric acid prices are surging and producers like Mosaic have to scale back production, worsening the fertilizer crisis.

More assessments of Trump’s trip to Beijing.

Olga Bazova @OlgaBazova

Trump left Beijing with minimal results, while Xi scored several victories, — Reuters

• Behind closed doors, Xi gave Trump a stern warning: any improper handling of Taiwan could lead to conflict.

• Trump refused to comment on this topic.

• While Trump was seeking quick business victories, Xi was promoting a long-term “restart” and a pact to maintain stable trade relations.

• Xi introduced a new term to describe the relationship — “constructive strategic stability”. This is a sharp departure from the phrase “strategic competition” used by Biden.

• Xi said nothing about Iran, and analysts doubt that China will pressure Tehran or stop its military support.

• There was no breakthrough on the sale of advanced Nvidia H200 chips to China, despite the company’s CEO joining the trip at the last minute.

• Trump also left without an official solution to the problem of rare earth metal supplies.

Read Larry Johnson’s similar but more detailed assessment: Trump’s Failed Mission to China. I’ll be quoting from the article further down.

Relevant from the news today—while Trump claimed that China broadly agreed with him re Hormuz, we’re learning that such was not the case at all. The Chinese ambassador to the UN has made it clear that China recognizes Iran’s territorial sovereignty over the waters of Hormuz and will veto the US/Bahrain resolution that attacks Iran.

China has also invited Putin to Beijing—yes, the invitation was extended by Beijing. It’s a reaffirmation of the strategic partnershhip at a critical juncture.

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

Interestingly, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced today that Putin will visit China [at the invitation of President Xi] imminently, in his first foreign trip of 2026 (and of course right after Trump’s visit).

Putin and Xi are expected to renew the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship signed in 2001 (https://trtworld.com/article/0c6e1bb99096…), and might finally sign the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal - which would be one of the largest energy deals in history.

So May 2026 will probably see Beijing host both the U.S. and Russian presidents - both seeking a deeper relationship with China.

Hard to think of a more concrete illustration of where the center of gravity now lies.

China continues not only to signal its rejection of the so-called Rules Based Order—in favor of International Law—but to also take specific steps

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

This is becoming a trend: for the second time in as many weeks, China is activating its blocking statutes against extraterritorial legislation.

On May 2nd they famously forbade Chinese companies from applying US sanctions on Iran (

and now China has just forbidden Nuctech (a Chinese company that manufactures security scanning equipment used in airports and ports) to comply with EU investigators demanding internal documents as part of a foreign subsidies probe.

This is China beginning to say, case by case, that the age of Western extraterritorial jurisdiction in China is over.

Professor Pape has a new and very worthwhile substack. I’ll quote the pithier parts. I’ll say this—the war on Iran was never just a Middle East conflict. It was always a key part of the Anglo-Zionist banking cartel’s war to maintain global hegemony. That’s a topic Pape always avoids, although he clearly recognizes what he prefers to call a “post American order.”

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

Xi now sees something every rival of America is starting to see: a superpower with enormous old-style military strength — AND growing strategic vulnerability

-- Pinned down in the Middle East

-- Struggling to restore respect

-- Unable to impose quick decisive outcomes

That changes everything

NEW on Prof Robert Pape substack:

Escalation Trap

The Damage You Can’t Hide

The headlines this week focused on Donald Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. Cameras followed the choreography. Analysts parsed the body language. Commentators debated tariffs, Taiwan, and great-power diplomacy…

Read more

6 days ago · 166 likes · 1 comment · Prof Robert Pape

“After Beijing, the World Looks Different — Why the Iran War is the First Conflict of the Post-American Era”

The Iran war is no longer just a Middle East conflict

It is the first war in the post-American order

...

Over the past several days, satellite imagery, leaked intelligence assessments, and independent reporting have begun revealing the extent of Iranian missile and drone strikes on American and Gulf infrastructure during the conflict. The images matter because they reveal something deeper than battlefield destruction.

They reveal the widening gap between tactical success and strategic success.

The United States demonstrated it could repeatedly strike Iran from the air. But Iran demonstrated something equally important: it could impose meaningful military and political costs on the American position in the Gulf without closing the Strait of Hormuz, without invading neighboring states, and without defeating the United States militarily in any conventional sense.

I get Pape’s point, but it remains that USrael was forced to rely on standoff missiles and could not simply roam Iranian skies at will. Elsewhere in the article Pape recognizes that the USN was forced to operate from a great distance—and continues to do so for purposes of its “blockade”—that decisively weakened its impact. All that was important on its own merits and made Iran’s demonstration of its own abilities all the more decisive in a strategic sense.

That distinction may become one of the defining strategic lessons of the war.

...

Strategy is about whether force produces durable political outcomes.

The new assessments suggest Iran retained substantial missile and drone capability even after weeks of strikes. American officials now privately acknowledge that Iranian systems proved more survivable, more geographically dispersed, and more rapidly reconstituted than many prewar assumptions anticipated.

... if Iran can continue threatening American bases, logistics hubs, energy infrastructure, and naval operations after repeated U.S. air campaigns, then short bursts of bombing are unlikely to produce decisive strategic outcomes.

...

The debate in Washington is no longer really about whether the war succeeded.

It is increasingly about whether the establishment in Washington is prepared to escalate further simply to avoid acknowledging that limited coercion failed to restore the old regional balance.

I’ll disagree slightly with those last two brief paragraphs. Those paragraphs are excerpted from a longer section in which Pape directly addresses Robert Kagan’s article in The Atlantic. Pape correctly notes:

[Kagan’s] conclusion points toward more escalation.

Pape is writing from his perspective of a structural “escalation trap”, rather than addressing what Alastair Crooke describes as the “messianic” or “apocalyptic” vision of Jewish Supremacy. Thus, Pape sees the danger of escalation as arising simply from a desire to avoid acknowledging limits on power, on the ability to maintain “the old regional balance.” But, of course, there never was an “old regional balance”—there was regional domination by the Anglo-Zionist Empire. In Pape’s framing the desire to avoid such an acknowledgement makes no real sense—rationally, one could recognize one’s limitations and adjust. The point that Crooke makes is that from a messianic/apocalyptic/gnostic ideological perspective the reality of limitations on power must be rejected on principle. But not on rational principles.

Mac is predicting more war, imminently, but LJ is now offering a caveat based on what Xi may have said to Trump—but which Trump didn’t repeat in public.

Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor

BREAKING: Preparations between The United States and Israel to resume combat operations in Iran under a different name are now under way.

Operations to begin with-in days.

CONFIRMED: Iran strikes U.S. intelligence targets in UAE.

BRICS+ Report @bricsplusreport

·

23h

JUST IN:  Iranian military sources have not officially claimed responsibility, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed it launched missiles and drones targeting what it described as “US intelligence hubs” and “spying centers” operating from Emirati territory . The strikes specifically hit facilities in the vicinity of Al Dhafra Air Base, a known US installation near Abu Dhabi that houses American surveillance aircraft and advanced radar systems

Perspective from Glenn Diesen and Larry Johnson:

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

The US plan was to defeat and destroy Iran, and if it failed, the US could point to the destruction and declare victory before going home (as it did with Yemen). However, Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz ensures there is no going back to crippling sanctions and enduring military threats. Iran will make access dependent on not sanctioning Iran, not attacking Iran, not threatening Iran by hosting US bases, and even ending the petrodollar by restricting sales in US dollars. Iran cannot get a diplomatic settlement with the US that recognises its security, so it will use the Strait of Hormuz to ensure its security. ...

Leon Panetta (former Director CIA): Iran regime has gun to our head over Hormuz

Larry Johnson (from article linked above):

As far as Iran is concerned, the Chinese and Russians are working behind the scenes — using Pakistan as a frontman — to erect a new security architecture for the Persian Gulf. The current effort is to convince Saudi Arabia and Qatar to effectively cut military ties with the US and enter into a strategic agreement that will be guaranteed by Russia and China. If Saudi Arabia and Qatar persist with prohibiting the US to use their bases and air space for a new set of attacks against Iran, the US may be compelled to call off planned strikes.

Interesting perspective on the Massie election in KY. The people spending all that money to defeat Massie are Jewish Supremacists. This should tell you a lot about their financial backing and about the importance they attach to controlling you and what you think:

Robert Barnes @barnes_law

14h

The highest amount spent per potential voter in any campaign on negative ads is about $2/voter. The negative campaign ads against Massie are more than 50 times higher at more than $100/voter. Unheard of & unprecedented.

Let that sink in.

Lastly, back to China:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

4h

Trump needed a breakthrough with Xi.

Instead, the China summit ended with more meetings, no Strait of Hormuz deal, and America still bleeding weapons stockpiles in Iran.

Taiwan just got the message loud and clear.

Very smart video:

• Trump offered platitudes.

• Xi offered warnings.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

4h

BREAKING:  Chinese President Xi Jinping warned President Trump during their high-stakes summit in Beijing, saying that if the issue of Taiwan is handled “improperly,” the two nations could “come into conflict,” according to China’s official state broadcaster Xinhua.

Xi is laying down the law to Trump in Beijing:

-- Taiwan is the military red line

-- Don’t stumble into a Thucydides Trap

The Iran war weakened America’s deterrent position faster than Washington realizes.

Beijing now sees a distracted, overstretched superpower — and is taking full advantage

The costs of Trump’s strategic failure in Iran are mounting

Think about this next bit—what kind of a reception is this for an honored guest? Answer: Trump wasn’t an honored guest. Trump was forced to swallow his hubris and narcissism. Can you imagine this response to anyone else in the world who called Trumpenstein’s fiefdom a “declining nation”?

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

Trump posts massive cope after Xi calls the U.S. a “declining nation” during their Beijing summit.

“It was only declining under Biden! GOLDEN AGE!!!!”

Xi must have been enjoying himself watching Trump’s self abasement, but give him credit—he didn’t sacrifice his dignity by catering to Trump:

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 @OopsGuess

19h

The funniest contrast is the tone.

Xi was talking about bilateral relations, global turbulence, cooperation, confrontation, and the future of humanity.

Trump was basically saying:

“It’s an honor to be your friend.”

“You are a great leader.”

“I only say the truth.”

“The children were beautiful.”

One was conducting diplomacy.

The other sounded like he finally got a private dinner with his political crush.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

12h

Trump to Xi:

“We’re going to have a fantastic future together. I have such respect for China. The job you’ve done. You’re a great leader…It’s an honor to be with you. It’s an honor to be your friend”

I guess Trump thought that what worked with Jewish Nationalist donors would work with Xi. Not so much.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

4h

 Q: Did you talk to Xi about China’s support for Iran?

Trump: He said he would not provide military equipment. That is a big statement but at the same time, he said they buy a lot of oil from there and would like to continue doing so.

Lol.

Right. And what did he say about giving Iran real time targeting intel? Or about stopping equipment sales by third country intermediaries?

And by the way, since I quoted Pape above, and Pape says the war on Iran was front and center in Beijing, listen to this one minute or so video. Pape maintains that Iran wants to keep the price of oil above $100 for a long time. Ouch, ouch, ouch!

What did Trump get from Xi? Very little, and even that little is one of the those time will tell things:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

Trump claims China will order 200 Boeing aircraft—his big “win” from the Beijing summit. No contract has been published. No timeline confirmed. Trump has a history of announcing “deals” that never materialize.

One problem: China just signed massive verified Airbus contracts worth tens of billions, and Airbus now controls 55% of the Chinese market.

Recent Airbus orders (confirmed, filed with stock exchanges):

 April 2026: China Southern ordered 137 Airbus A320neos ($21.4 billion)

 February 2026: 120 Airbus jets (German Chancellor Merz visit)

 December 2025-January 2026: 148 Airbus jets from five Chinese companies

 Since 2025: ~$55 billion in Airbus orders

Boeing hasn’t secured a major Chinese order since 2017, a drought caused by the U.S.-China trade war, 737 MAX crashes, and geopolitical tensions.

Trump wanted 500 planes (analysts expected 500), but he claims he got less than half. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg publicly begged Trump last month to help unlock the orders, saying Boeing needed “the administration’s support.”

Until we see signed contracts with delivery schedules filed with regulators, this is vaporware.

Rubio:

Jason Smith - 上官杰文 @ShangguanJiewen

20h

China is not rising because the US is falling.

The US is falling all on its own because of rampant greed and corruption.

China’s rise is because of its own hard work.

Rubio falsely sees two things happening and assumes one is the cause of the other.

So what was it really all about? Supply chains. Trump’s go America over a barrel—thanks.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

14h

 Why did all these powerful people go with Trump to kneel in China?

The answer is access to rare materials.

The reality is that Tesla, Apple, Boeing, GE Aerospace, and all the others desperately need China, while Beijing structurally needs them less and less.

China controls 70% of global extraction, 85% of refining, 90% of permanent magnets, and 99% of dysprosium and terbium, without which no F-35 fighter jet takes off, no MRI machine works, and no iPhone starts up.

And the card with which the US could blackmail China - semiconductors - is already completely exhausted. SMIC produces 7nm chips using DUV multipatterning, Huawei’s Ascend competes with Nvidia on AI inference, QiMeng designs RISC-V chips via AI, and SMEE has announced its first domestic EUV machine for 2027.

The US is now totally dependent on China and its military machine without China will completely fail.

Lastly:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

13h

 Trump tries his signature Hand Pull move in China, but the Chinese President Xi was ready for it.

Sean Foo has been concentrating on geopolitics lately. Yesterday he addressed Iran’s strategy of asymmetric warfare. It’s very insightful. Trump, driven by Jewish Nationalists, has gambled the US economy even before checking his hand at the poker table.

Iran Triggers US Bond MELTDOWN As Emergency Oil Release To Backfire Massively

The Iran war is taking a deadly turn for the worse. Iran is forcing the US into a corner and, as we mentioned before, Trump is really on the back foot on this one. With his upcoming trip to China, the administration can’t afford to make any crazy moves. Trump wants favors from Beijing, which mainly revolve around China buying stuff from the US. We know that because the US ambassador just warned China against halting the purchase of American soybeans. I find this bizarre because it really shows the level of panic even before the summit begins. Whether China buys US soy and other exports really depends on the US war on Iran. The Chinese don’t want an escalation because that will be very bad for the world economy. Losing access to Middle East oil is also a major point of contention for the Chinese. Iran has rejected US terms and the leadership is pushing Trump to the brink.

This standoff is causing a meltdown, but the US cannot afford to escalate in a big way until Trump gets a clearer idea of where China stands on the issue. Until then, the US is forced to buy time. They’re on the defensive and it’s causing the world to lose faith--not just in Trump’s economy, but in American markets as well. Despite the AI hype train and people piling into technology, US stocks are reversing calls and are crashing. The NASDAQ has fallen by over 2%, thanks to the inflation report that just came out. US CPI inflation has risen to 3.8%, the highest level in 3 years. As we mentioned many times before, there is a lag time for inflation, and that means there’s no way for the US to escape higher prices ahead. How can crude go from $70 to over $110--and then stay above $100--and inflation will not rebound higher? That’s why we can’t just trust Trump on any economic number he throws out. He literally invents things from thin air.

Whether Trump likes it or not, Iran is in full control of US inflation. And, by proxy, that means having the ability to wreck the economy and US markets. That is the soft underbelly of the Empire. Iran doesn’t need to defeat the US military in the field. They just need to outlast America’s fragile economy. Now, we know panic is starting to build because the US has decided to release yet another wave of their emergency oil reserves.

The strategic petroleum reserve awarded another 53.3 million barrels to companies--including global oil trader Trafigura Group and US refiner Marathon. But there’s a big problem with this. It’s not really an outright sale of the oil. It’s really a loan. The US government tried to get fancy with the details and this is why things could really backfire badly. The bidders taking oil from the SPR will have to return this oil with interest or premium. And this can be anywhere from 18% to 24%. But there’s a big catch here. It’s not dollars the companies have to pay back. It is barrels of oil. That changes the entire equation and introduces massive risk. For example, if Exxon takes in a million barrels of oil from the SPR at a 20% premium, they will have to return 1.2 million barrels to the Reserves. 200,000 in additional barrels would have be returned to the US stock piles. Returning cash calculated at a fixed amount in one thing, but the price of oil fluctuates every single day. That means the big oil companies are taking a very big risk. They’re taking the oil and selling it now, hoping that prices will collapse tomorrow. But if the price of oil doesn’t drop, suddenly they could be facing brutal losses.

This is why there was only a 52% participation rate in this SPR release. Many companies see this as a trap--the terms imposed by the Trump administration are just too risky. It’s borderline silly and gives Iran a bigger advantage. Only the brave would dare take on this enormous gamble.

If Iran keeps Hormuz shut or strikes even more Gulf producers, prices could rise higher. Suddenly, the companies will be in the position of needing to return the original million barrels plus the additional 20% more barrels at a higher price tag. The losses will be staggering and would result in either default or begging the Department of Energy (DOE) for a reprieve. Either way, the SPR would stay empty for longer. That’s how much of a vice grip Iran has on the US. Trump’s idea of getting the private sector to grow the SPR at no cost to the taxpayer is going to backfire. Future releases of the SPR will be met with fear and hesitation, and the participation rate is only going to collapse. Who wants to take this risk? Companies won’t want to take a double gamble on both the volume and the price. And that fear alone could cause oil prices globally to stay higher for longer.

Now, Iran is putting pressure on the US by forcing oil above $100 a barrel yet again. We have warned multiple times that inflation will rebound higher and, with it, a whole host of nasty effects. Meanwhile, Trump is still trying to defend the rise in inflation. It’s quite bizarre, but the excuse is still about the nuclear threat. Plus, Trump’s numbers are all over the place.

Q: [Inflation] is now at its highest level in three years. Are your policies not working? What’s happening?

Trump: Policies are working incredibly. If you go back to just before the war, for the last 3 months, inflation was at 1.7%. Now, we had a choice. Let these lunatics have a nuclear weapon. If you want to do that, then you’re a stupid person.

In the first place, US inflation was never at 1.7%--that never happened. But the latest numbers are out and inflation did hit a three-year high. We should be alarmed because we have all seen this movie before. The biggest risk to the US today are the markets. And despite the risk of high inflation, investors are still piling on. Part of it is the AI hype. Part of it is the hope that the war ends soon and that inflation crashes back down. It’s a really dangerous gamble. If US stocks really crash it would push millions to the edge. spending could suddenly dry up in a hurry. The 6% GDP claim from Kevin Hasset is going to evaporate into thin air.

Now inflation has officially risen to 3.8% in the CPI. That is just headline inflation that includes food, energy.

Airfares and rent have also risen. Grocery prices are up by 70 basis points. At the same time, real hourly earnings have fallen. People are spending more while earning less. That’s a deadly combination for an economy driven by consumption. The real fear is entrenched inflation. And that’s where core inflation--the yellow bars--starts to rise. That will mean inflation has trickled down into services as well. That means housing, transportation, and healthcare become more expensive. Right now, the prices of basic necessities are rising. Almost every category is up. Goods that cost $100 in 2020 now cost more than $130 today. Iran won’t let up the pressure. Not when they’re making a dent where it matters the most. They are hammering the wallets of US voters. The midterm elections are coming in November and inflation could very well persist until then. Even if the ceasefire holds and Hormuz opens next week, higher costs aren’t going to magically disappear--the oil shock takes time to normalize. Higher prices for fertilizer have not fully trickled down to the consumer just yet.

But will things even normalize? Now this is the chart of the Bab el-Mandeb strait after the Houthis wreaked havoc on the strait.

It’s not Hormuz, but it does highlight that things won’t go back to normal. Before the Houthis made their squeeze, 70 to 80 ships passed through the Elman daily, but after the crisis, this amount dropped to 30 or 40. It is at least a 50% decrease, which should tell us the fate of Hormuz going forward. Even if we get a peace agreement, Iran will likely be in control of Hormuz. They will be imposing a toll and collecting millions of dollars per ship. Those that refuse to pay will get throttled. So expecting the flow of oil to normalize back to 100% is just a nice fantasy.

This isn’t good for the inflation crisis in the US. Trump will be facing borderline embarrassment as he heads to Beijing. He was supposed to go to the Chinese like a big winner, wasn’t he? But with the US economy facing high inflation, it’s hard to imagine that he has any leverage at all. The Achilles heel of the US economy has always been high inflation--it’s the main driver of interest rates in the system. And the market is pricing not lower rates, but higher rates, by the end of the year. But here’s the real kicker. There’s a very serious chance of rate hikes by December. There’s a 35% chance of rates hitting 4% or higher over the next 7 months. So, are we really feeling lucky yet?

Trump’s war on Iran has totally warped expectations over the coming year. Everyone, including the markets, were expecting a big drop in rates. Everything from mortgage loans to the AI investments were expecting this drop. Iran’s playing an indirect game to end the war on their terms. Iran knows that they can’t confront the US military for a victory in the field. Instead, they’re targeting the weak spot that they know made Trump TACO in the past. This is the very definition of asymmetric warfare. And just as Russia used oil and gas, just as China used rare earths, the Iranians are using the price of oil and inflation to influence US interest rates.

As we speak, the US 10-year yield is climbing higher and higher. It’s probably higher than 4.46% now and is rising dangerously close to the 4.5% pivotal level.

Now, this is the level at which Trump did his taco last year during the trade war. Thanks to inflation, investors are squeezing Bessent for higher return. The sentiment is quite clear here. ‘If you can’t get inflation in control, you’d better give us a higher yield to hold treasuries.’ And you can’t really blame them. Who wants to hold a hot potato today? Not only is inflation rising, the strength of the dollar is also falling. So, future US debt auctions will become a disaster. US mortgage rates could also start rising back to 7% this year. Millions, tens of millions, could face an additional squeeze from their housing payments. So will Trump tackle and face humiliation or will he continue to risk and gamble with the US economy?

Of course Trump is hoping for a miracle from China. He wants investments and purchase commitments from the Chinese. He might even back Beijing to get Iran to stand down. But is it really going to work? I highly doubt it. Iran has managed to corner the US and there are even reports circulating that it’s game over. Apart from the Kagan article in The Atlantic, US intelligence agencies themselves are projecting a protracted war.

Iran still retains a huge missile and drone arsenal. They can outlast the US blockade for months--and then some. And we know what that means. A longer oil disruption and potential escalations and an inflation crisis that just won’t go away. Trump isn’t going to China with a full set of cards. He can’t really strut around and proclaim victory, because the facts on the ground are the complete opposite. China won’t buy what he will try to sell.

The only joker in the deck is the nuclear one. That’s where Trump has brought this country.

COL. Douglas Macgregor: How Iran Defeated the US and Israel

Judge: You refer to [Trump] as surrounded by a bubble. It’s a bubble of sycopants. I mean, we keep hearing these stories that General Caine—the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—and the Vice President might not have been part of the sycophant group and might have expressed opinions to [Trump] contrary to what he got from Secretary Rubio, Secretary Hegseth and the others. I don’t need to mention all of their ...

Mac: Well, actually, Judge, I spoke over the weekend to some people in the White House and they said the opposite. There was no one more enthusiastic about going to war with Iran than JD Vance. And that’s my own experience with him. I saw this up close and personal. He was always talking about going to war with Iran. So I don’t believe [the Barnes narrative].

Judge: That’s consistent with his financial benefactors, Peter Thiel and Palantir and people that make a fortune on these wars.

Mac: And when it comes to Caine, you know, we’ve discussed that before. He was not appointed and made a fourstar to say no. And he’s an airman. And I think like most airmen, he was more than willing to give it a go because they thought this might be another opportunity to win a war with air power only. Of course, that’s nonsense, as we both know. But nevertheless, I’m very skeptical of these attempts to retrospectively confer a degree of credibility and character on these people when I didn’t see much evidence for it to begin with.

Judge: I guess I have fallen a little bit to the PR view that Vance has thought of himself as the loyal soldier but the dissenter up to the point of the decision to go in. But I accept very much what you said.

Mac: Before we before we leave this topic completely, I think it’s worth pointing out that right now—behind the scenes, at least—I’m being told this, that the argument is that President Trump was misled by his quote unquote Israeli friends and that had he paid more attention to his American advisers, the narrative goes, then events might have taken a different course. But the truth is, there is a mountain of evidence that--like President Lyndon Johnson--Trump and his inner circle, including Vance, were really driving military action and escalation from the beginning. And Trump seems to have rejected advice from anyone in or out of uniform who opposed it. But very few people that opposed what he wanted to do ever got to the White House, if any. And I think that’s your point on the bubble.

...

Judge: So, Colonel, have your friends in the White House expressed a view as to what Trump will do and who will he blame? Will he blame Hegseth? Will he blame General Caine? Will he blame the Israelis? He’s certainly got not going to take blame himself. If he does, it’ll be the first time in his adult life.

Yeah. Well, that’s a good question and I don’t have a good answer to it, except to point out that there are a lot of people who are blaming the Israelis behind closed doors, but they’re all afraid to say so publicly. And I think part of that is that they don’t want to admit that the Israelis have led us down the the path to destruction eagerly. And in fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke quite recently, just a few hours ago, as I understand it, saying that the war is not over. and it must continue. And I think that’s what he wants. He doesn’t care what it costs us. He doesn’t care what it costs the world. He doesn’t care how many people starve in the Global South. He doesn’t care whether or not inflation is going to destroy us along with large numbers of governments all over the world. It’s irrelevant to him. He wants complete dominance, control, hegemony over the Middle East. The only way he can get it is with us. So I think, unfortunately, Trump can’t blame it on the Israelis, whether he likes it or not. He’s going to be held responsible.

I’ve edited the Sean Foo transcript to focus on what I take to be Foo’s main points. His overarching contention is that Iran is actively seeking to prolong the war because of the damage this will do to the US economy and Trump and the war party politically. We’ve seen this argument before, and the Iranians have shown themselves to be quite savvy in the world of finance. Foo’s second, and related, contention is that this dynamic has robbed Trump of any leverage he might have had for his trip to China. He seconds what my view has always been, that this trip was always planned as occurring in the aftermath of a glorious victory over, first, Venezuela and, then, Iran. Instead, Trump will show up in the Forbidden City after a humiliating defeat and hat in hand. Anything in the way of deals that Xi gives Trump will be very much to China’s benefit.

Place Foo’s argument in the latest context. Trump is complaining about the Iranian delaying tactics. So maybe he gets what’s going on, but there’s nothing he can do—short of abject surrender—to change the situation. So he continues with his yackety yack.

By the way, regarding Trump being in possession of any “cards”, Mac suggested that they were baseball cards. Anyway:

It’s Fatal: Iran UNRAVELS The U.S. Economy As Trump Faces Defeat In China

At this point, Trump is gambling with the entire US economy, markets, and global hegemony with this war. One really wonders if he’s aware how bad the situation is becoming. It’s not just draining the US of money and treasure. It’s not just draining away the stock piles of weapons. It’s putting Trump in a horrific bargaining position with the Chinese. [Trump’s original] plan was to shock the Chinese by pulling up a scorecard of wins. Trump wanted to go in and tell Beijing, “We have got Venezuela and we took down Iran. It’s time for you to listen and give us what we want.” But it’s not going to happen. In fact, it will just be a humiliation ritual after what is happening right now. Trump has called the Iranian response totally unacceptable, and he’s threatening Iran with brimstone and fire. He says the ceasefire is on life support, and that the Iranians won’t be laughing any longer. What’s funny is that Trump is probably going to hold back on any big strikes on Iran until after the China summit. The US economy can’t afford to piss off the Chinese, especially since the disruption of Middle Eastern oil supply to China is raising prices for them and it puts Chinese investments in that region at risk.

There are a whole lot of reasons why Iran isn’t folding. Apart from the risk of giving up nuclear deterrence, Iran also understands the pressure they can apply on the US economy. We’re talking about igniting a bigger oil crisis globally that will eventually boomerang back on the US. We are over 70 days into this war and counting. And if global prices start to spike, there’s simply no way that energy in the US won’t rise as well. Oil is a global market and there’s simply nowhere left to hide. World oil buffers are getting drawn down like never before. Assuming there’s no resolution to the war, we have at most 4 months before we hit critical levels. There might be over 8 billion barrels in reserves, but there’s a limit to how much you can actually draw them down. The US also has a limited amount of oil reserves. Trump is draining a total of 170 million barrels over a few months. After that, he might need to drain even more to keep prices stable. It’s probably not going to work this time because what the US sells will be snapped up and the buyers aren’t exactly who you think.

When the US releases their oil reserves to the world, it’s done through an auction. They don’t sell it directly to countries through a contract. The Department of Energy (DOE) issues a notice of sale and buyers turn up and bid. Two of the biggest buyers of the US oil reserves are trading companies. Shell’s trading division snapped up 80 million barrels while Trafigura bought over 21 million barrels. Other traders like Gunvor and Mercuria also bought cargos from the US government.

These are some of the biggest trading houses in the world, and traders are extremely ruthless. They have the ability and the economies of scale to buy and sit on their positions. They will be buying low and selling high. And if enough barrels are [squirreled?] away, the physical price of oil might go even higher. Then the oil crisis facing the world could get worse, while traders make billions. This is called arbitrage and it’s literally the business model of middlemen. So the incentives for lower oil prices are just not there. imagine if global oil buffers collapse further and the US releases more oil reserves. Prices won’t suddenly drop. It doesn’t work that way. In fact, the physical price could rise higher if these traders play their cards right. Consumers probably are going to pay more. All this is going to put upwards pressure on the US economy as well. There’s no escaping it.

Iran is definitely taking note, and China isn’t blind to that as well. Higher energy prices are especially destabilizing to the US economy. It also adds pressure to the entire financial system. The higher oil prices go, it forces the Fed to keep rates high. It’s not good for a stock market that’s overheating. It’s not good for mortgage rates. They’re rising higher. It stacks risk on top of additional risk in a system that’s already very, very vulnerable. The Iranians have their hands on the lever of US inflation. And the impact goes beyond just companies investing their money. Consumers are also going to get clobbered.

The Trump administration is going to face a really tough sell in China. Trump is going to bring with him a star studded delegation to basically beg business from the Chinese. We know some of the attendees: Nvidia, Citi Bank, and Blackstone are all attending. But US consumer giants like Apple and Tesla are also part of the delegation. They’re scrambling to China to maintain their markets. Trump is heading to China with zero leverage. In fact, he’s going there with negative leverage, because there’s nothing that the Chinese want, but there’s definitely concessions that Washington wants from President Xi. The most likely stuff that comes to mind would be buying US energy, buying US food exports like soybeans, and of course buying Boeing airplanes. It’s the same page year after year, but the desperation is growing year after year. Trump needs to bring home a big win from the China summit. And since the start of the war, many experts have been [gleefully predicting] the end of China’s economy, thanks to China’s reliance on Middle Eastern energy. But now the mainstream media is starting to admit what we have all known all along. China’s energy fortress was built to withstand just this type of oil shock. The Chinese economy is well insulated.

There’s no leverage to be had against Beijing, not against their oil reserves. It’s going to be really tough for Trump to arm twist China on anything. If Beijing decides to shut off rare earths, there goes the ability to make weapons and even AI chips. Trump can’t have that. If the Chinese decide to U-turn on buying US soybeans, there goes the American farmer. Imagine getting through the fertilizer crisis without Chinese demand. It won’t be pretty. China’s industrial policy is working so well that the US Chamber of Commerce is now afraid. They have a new report that warns of how much manufacturing exports will be lost from the G7 economies to China.

And should things continue to get worse, China could threaten up to $650 billion in industrial exports. That’s 12% of total G7 manufacturing value that could get lost by 2030. So this is a sobering moment.

The longer the war lasts with Iran, the longer it will be for the US to correct course. In fact, it might already be too late. The only question we have left now is how bad the situation will get. As it stands, Trump is not heading to the summit with a full deck of cards. Trump will be playing checkers with himself while the Chinese sip jasmine tea, wondering: What is really going on here?

Iran Deploys Combat-Ready Mini Subs In Hormuz As US Flexes Nuclear Submarine En Route

A US Navy nuclear-armed submarine has arrived in Gibraltar while en route into the Mediterranean Sea and likely Central Command or Middle East regional waters, in a very rare Pentagon admission of the whereabouts of one of America’s most secretive weapons.

“The port visit demonstrates U.S. capability, flexibility, and continuing commitment to its NATO allies,” the Navy announced, confirming that the submarine arrived in Gibraltar on Sunday. “Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are undetectable launch platforms for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, providing the U.S. with its most survivable leg of the nuclear triad.”

The Wall Street Journal has emphasized, “The Pentagon almost never acknowledges the locations of its boomers [US naval slang], which are highly classified. The Navy didn’t provide the name of the submarine in Gibraltar.”

This definitely looks like a signal—or a bluff. Or a warning? Iran claims it’s been targeting USN ships and we have to presume that that includes the carriers. How would the US respond to the sinking of a carrier? By nuking Tehran? Could the surfacing of the “boomer” in Gibralter signal that the US is prepared to retaliate against a successful Iranian attack on one of its carriers following any new US attack on Iran? Will Schryver argues against that:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

I have long argued and continue to believe that:

If, as retribution for Iran sinking an American aircraft carrier, the US uncorked aVergeltungswaffen to turn Tehran into rubble and ashes, it would light the fuse of world war among the major powers on the planet.

Rafael Dominguez @somoscode

China and Russia should make it clear they would go nuclear against the US if we dare to do so!

Will Schryver @imetatronink

How do you know they haven’t already conveyed that message?

I am confident they have.

A US nuclear strike against Iran would open Pandora’s Box, and represent an existential threat against Russia, China, and North Korea.

Jim Mc Donald @Daghtamor

You don’t have to sink it, just leave it limping home. Iran would never sink a carrier.

Well, there’s lots of back and forth on that topic, with commenters weighing in on what they “think” or “believe”. Schryver posits “turn[ing] Tehran into rubble and ashes”, but modern nukes allow for less drastic alternatives than that—although still drastic enough. It’s worth noting that Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine is, or should be to Europeans, plenty alarming.

Schryver also argues that “boomers” may not be as undetectable as is generally believed. Part of the undetectability feature of these subs—beyond the relative silence of nuclear power—lies in their ability to remain submerged for months at a time, as well as the long range of their missiles, which allows the “boomers” to stand off at very long range. Schryver talks about “loitering” torpedoes stationed at “choke points” but, of course, “boomers” inhabit the deep blue, avoiding choke points. However, if you do some pretty simple searches online you’ll learn that the Russians (and the Chinese) have some very sophisticated capabilities:

Russian Satellite Capabilities

Tracking Technologies

Russian satellites possess advanced technologies that enable them to track U.S. submarines. These capabilities include:

• Wake Detection: Russian systems can detect submarine wakes, which are disturbances in the water caused by a submarine’s movement. This method allows for covert tracking of submarines.

• Electro-Optical Devices: Some Russian submarines have been equipped with electro-optical devices designed to identify and track undersea wakes.

Implications for U.S. Naval Operations

The ability of Russian satellites to monitor U.S. submarines poses significant challenges for U.S. naval operations. The detection of submarine wakes can compromise the stealth and operational effectiveness of U.S. submarines, which are designed to remain undetected while on patrol.

I’ll leave Schryver with the last word on this:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

Time will tell.

But my sense of the matter is that Russia is almost certainly capable of tracking and striking US submarines almost anywhere on the planet. China is regionally dominant in that respect. Iran is very likely very capable to a significant distance from its shores.

.

Let’s revisit the discussion of Iranian capabilities again at the summer solstice. You’ll need to remind me, because I am sure to forget.

I am inclined to believe the Iranians have several surprises they have deliberately withheld in light of the success of their lesser weapons.

Speaking of naval matters, Trump is, too:

But Patty Marins responds:

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

2h

This is an extremely difficult task, which is precisely why it was not accomplished in the first 40 days of the war.

Dozens of these speedboats are equipped with anti-drone air-defense systems, and it is possible that one of the A-10s shot down in the Gulf was actually brought down by one of these systems.

There are hundreds of boats armed with missile and torpedo systems, plus hundreds more fitted with rocket launchers that are now receiving guidance kits.

In short, a drone force can begin to engage these fast attack boats in the strait, but destroying hundreds of them is no easy task.

And if we include the models equipped with cannons, the total rises to at least 1,500 vessels.

It is a classic mosquito fleet, one the United States is not prepared to confront. Large warships are simply not effective against this type of threat.

To make the situation even more complicated, Iran has accelerated production of its 359 anti-aircraft missiles.

These can be launched in the Strait of Hormuz without the enemy drones even being detected.

The munition then loiters until it finds and engages its target.

This is not merely asymmetric warfare. It is a genuine headache for the entire doctrinal model established by the US Navy.

The lesson from all this is that there are no magic bullets at Trump’s disposal—or, not any that carry no risks. Patarames provides a useful summary of where things stand:

Patarames @Pataramesh

How things stand for Trump & his cards:

War crimes (hitting bridges & Powerplants)

 Deterred by robust counter strike on all critical & energy infrastructures of:

1. UAE

2. Bahrain

3. Israel

4. Kuwait

5. Qatar

6. Saudi Arabia

Inciting Civil War

 Deterred by intact Iranian ground forces putting any Kurdish attempts at high risk of their lives

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S. Navy

 Failure of Operation Freedom due to Iran’s robust, sustained anti-shipping capabilities

Occupation of key places by Ground Forces

 Hezbollah’s Fiber-Optic FPV attacks on Israeli troops proved how bad it looks to have your youth killed on live-video feed

Heliborne Special Operation Force missions for different goals

 High losses during the (claimed) pilot rescue operation showed how fragile that approach is against an opponent like Iran

Tactical nuclear weapons

 Deterred by Iran’s 450kg weaponizable Uranium stockpile and opening pandoras box for conflicts like the Ukraine War

Continuing naval blockade

 Strait of Hormuz effects on global economy is a much greater leverage than the limited impact on Iran’s economy AND it sets in earlier...

In the air, yesterday brought some interesting information. The WSJ reported that the UAE had covertly engaged in air strikes against Iran. Of course we don’t know whether the UAE planes were also UAE piloted, and we know that Israelis were stationed there. But the US is also claiming that Iran has been receiving assistance from regional friends—which doesn’t really come as a surprise. Which also means that Iran retains its air force:

RT @RT_com

19h

US accuses Pakistan of ‘SHIELDING’ Iranian military aircraft from airstrikes

Planes allowed to PARK on Pakistani airfields — officials to CBS

The airplane in the video at the link looks like an Iranian F-5 or development thereof.

Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

May 10

Breaking:

Amid global energy crisis, PM Modi calls for reducing petrol, diesel consumption through public transport, car-pooling, EVs.

Asks citizens to avoid foreign tourism, non-essential gold purchases, revival of WFH;

Urges farmers to cut chemical fertilisers use by 50%

.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

Major US fertilizer company...whose end market product’s price is SOARING as a result of the war...and yet

Jeff Diamond @JeffDiamond3

6h

Seems like the same dynamic would apply to semiconductor manufacturing. They need helium & apparently sulfuric acid, too. Then, when you think about the effect of soaring chip prices on those oh-so-loved hyperscalers. The dominos are aligned for some not so nice outcomes.

Luke Gromen:

It’s coming like a freight train IMO

.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

3h

If time is on our side and not on Iran’s, wouldn’t this make Trump happy?

And wouldn’t Iran hurry up?

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

3h

TRUMP: WE WAITED 4 DAYS FOR A DOCUMENT FROM IRAN THAT WOULD TAKE LESS THAN 10 MINUTES TO PREPARE

.

John Arnold @johnarnold

4h

It would take the CFTC about 5 minutes to figure out who this was and whether there was any misconduct, assuming they want to.

.

Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews

World Oil Inventories Are Falling at a Record Pace

.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

May 10

Translation:

June = inflation and recession.

September = depression and total destabilisation.

.

Philip Pilkington 

DIESEL DIESEL DIESEL.

As the energy crisis sets in you’re going to hear a LOT about diesel. When shelves in shops are unstacked or trains don’t run everyone will refer to the diesel supply.

Karel Mercx @KarelMercx

Another new 52-week high for the spread between a barrel of Texas oil and a barrel of diesel.

When oil rises, diesel rises faster. Diesel has no real substitute. Freight, industry, farming and shipping need it. Part of oil demand can switch to coal. Diesel cannot.

.

QE Infinity @StealthQE4

We are two weeks from oil shortages and demand rationing according to Bloomberg.

Not months…weeks.

Anyone that thinks this oil shortage isn’t a serious immediate crisis is delusional:

.

Margaret Brennan @margbrennan

After hearing the Pentagon classified brief on Iran war impact on US weapons stockpiles, Senator Mark Kelly says it is “shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines.” He said the Tomahawks, ATACMS, SM-3, THAAD rounds, Patriot rounds, so those interceptor rounds to defend ourselves have been hit hard. He says it’ll take years to replenish those stockpiles, which could affect a hypothetical US conflict with China.

[Comment: My bet is that the professional military—and intel apparatus—wants this word to get out to Americans.]

.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

15h

They’re still trying to mitigate the price impact in America. First by hacking the WTI futures price and now that the impact from that has faded through effective subsidies. But there is just not enough oil. Demand will have to be forced to adjust somehow.

The Calvin Coolidge Project @TheCalvinCooli1

22h

Report: The Trump administration is considering suspending the federal gasoline tax

Via: Axios

.

@calvinfroedge

8h

Hormuz closed, fertilizer prices spiking, and the worst US drought during planting season *in recorded history* but I’m sure it will all be fine

FarmPolicy @FarmPolicy

8h

The United States experienced its worst spring #drought on record last month, with more than 60% of land in the lower 48 states experiencing moderate drought or worse. The drought has sparked alarm among #farmers across the country.

.

.

Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal

4h

99% of investments to Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners come from non-US investors – almost all Gulf monarchies like the UAE, which is desperate for regime change in Iran

Meanwhile, the Trump sons are invested in two Pentagon drone contractors developing systems for the Iran war, as well as the prediction markets companies being used for insider trading on the war

No mention in this report of World Liberty Financial, run by Steve Witkoff’s son, which raked in a $2 billion investment from the UAE

Trump corruption makes Hunter Biden’s art look like a Girl Scout cookie sale

PBS News @NewsHour

In his second administration, President Trump’s family, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner and sons Eric and Don Jr., are expanding their business ventures, earning hundreds of millions of dollars and prompting fresh concerns about influence peddling and conflicts of interest.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

21h

Trump just responded aggressively to Iran’s response

Last sentence is “they will be laughing no longer”

Major escalation coming soon

With lasting damage to energy infrastructure and world economy more than likely

.

Netanyahu is now effectively calling for US ground forces to seize Iran’s enriched uranium

.

Yesterday on TMJ, I explained why Iran was unlikely to buckle and the US has been drawn deeper into the Escalation Trap

The reasons show Iran’s response and Trump’s reaction today are as predictable as they are tragic.

.

Credible analysis shows Iran has plutonium for 200 nuclear weapons

[Patty Marins addresses this in a new substack, as well as the dire consequences that will flow from escalation by Trump: What if Iran carries out its threats? Undersea cables and gulf infrastructure damaged in global chaos]

This is in addition to enriched uranium that has been the focus of Trump negotiations

Iran rapidly emerging as 4th of world power

Nuclear Iran coming soon

.

3h

With Iran rejecting Trump’s proposal,

Trump’s Iran strategy has entered the danger zone

Stage 1: Bombing

Stage 2: Iran controls Hormuz

Now Washington faces the real choice:

Stage 3 → escalation & possible ground war

or

Stage 4 → Iran emerges as a new center of global power

For Americans, this now means casualties OR $6–8 gas for months

There are caveats that apply. One significant one is that the military is briefing Congress that they’re on the brink of “critical shortages” of munitions. Will Congress finally take action against a POTUS who is attempting to act unilaterally against the interests of Americans—whether as a result of blackmail or some other compulsion. Another very important caveat involves the upcoming Trump trip to Beijing, where Xi is prepped to confront Trump over Iran. It’s impossible to see any cards that Trump has to play against China/Russia/Iran, with China fronting for the trio. Are these caveats exactly what Kagan is desperately seeking to head off—to stiffen the spine of Congress and Trump, to prepare for the Jewish Nationalist Total War for global hegemony?

As an intro to the Kagan article, here’s Will Schryver brief characterization of the defeat that Kagan sees in this war—for the moment:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

Hard to believe I am reposting something Robert Kagan wrote, but that is simply a reflection of the degree to which Iran has inflicted an overwhelmingly decisive strategic defeat against the United States: even Kagan is compelled to recognize it.

You can also read MoA’s fine article:

War On Iran: – Saudis Blame Israel – Neocon Grandee Concedes Defeat

Moon makes several points. One is that KSA and Qatar are maneuvering to ditch the Anglo-Zionist security architecture in the Gulf and join the BRICS led one—this comes in the context of repeated reports that KSA and Qatar are maintaining talks with Iran (and presumably with Russia and China). He then moves on to the Kagan article, quoting a brief extract that sets out the current US defeat in the starkest terms.

Checkmate in Iran – Washington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war. (archived) – Atlantic

It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored.
…
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.

Moon: Kagan acknowledges that the U.S. has no way out of its dilemma:

Even if Trump were to carry out his threat to destroy Iran’s “civilization” through more bombing, Iran would still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime went down—assuming it did go down. Just a few successful strikes could cripple the region’s oil and gas infrastructure for years if not decades, throwing the world, and the United States, into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategy—looking tough as a way of masking his retreat—he can’t do that without risking this catastrophe.

If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close.

Close. But not final. Checkmate can be avoided by TOTAL WAR. As I’ve argued consistently, they will never give up. We are in the grip of fanatics who live within a pathological delusion.

Rather than present lengthy quotes from Kagan’s article, I’ll present a lengthy analysis by Arnaud Bertrand. Arnaud takes a victory lap of sorts, as you’ll see, and he quotes himself as extensively as Kagan—which is not a bad thing to illustrate that he (Arnaud) saw this coming. However, in addition to listing Kagan’s main points which agree with what Arnaud wrote a month ago, Arnaud also offers a further critique. Again, the point that I want to stress is that Trump has trapped himself (and us). Trump may escalate for personal and pathological reasons. But that won’t change the outcome. It will only make it worse than it already is—and that’s exactly what Arnaud expands upon:

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

There’s no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet.

As a reminder Bob Kagan is:

- The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat)

- A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself...

- The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today)

- The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge

In other words, we ain’t exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk.

And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat).

So when HE writes that the U.S. “suffered a total defeat” in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” it’s the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers aren’t great: it means the burgers really, really aren’t great.

Extraordinarily (and somewhat worryingly, for me), his arguments for why this is such a defeat are virtually the same as those I laid out in my article “The First Multipolar War” last month.

Here they are 

1) Vietnam/Afghanistan were survivable, this isn’t

He agrees that this war - and the U.S. defeat - is fundamentally different in nature from previous U.S. interventions.

Where I wrote that the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan didn’t change the equation much in terms of power dynamics (“in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego”), Kagan writes that “the defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world.”

And when I wrote that “it’s painfully obvious that the Iran war is of a qualitatively different nature” from these, he writes that “defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character.”

Same point.

2) Iran will never relinquish Hormuz and uses it as selective leverage

When I wrote that Iran has turned “freedom of navigation” on its head by establishing “a permission-based regime” through the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan arrives at the same conclusion: “Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.”

He also agrees that “Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante,” when I myself cited Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf in my article, saying: “The Strait of Hormuz situation won’t return to its pre-war status.” Same point and virtually the same words.

Note that. Last week Rubio, amidst all his war mongering rhetoric, suggested that Trump would settle for a return to the status quo ante bellum. Not gonna happen. And in #3 Kagan agrees with Pape’s assessment of where Iran is headed in geopolitical terms if Trump fails to go all in on TOTAL WAR.

3) Gulf states will have to accommodate Iran

He agrees that most Gulf states will have no choice but to accommodate Iran, effectively making Iran into a, if not THE, dominant regional power.

Kagan writes “the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran.”

On my end, I wrote that “the Gulf monarchies will eventually have to choose between two security propositions. One where they stay aligned with a distant superpower that [can’t protect them]. The other proposition being: make peace with the regional power that just proved it can hit [them] whenever it wants.” Which is not much of a choice…

4) Military impossibility to reopen Hormuz

Kagan writes that “if the United States with its mighty Navy can’t or won’t open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans’ capability will be able to, either.”

On my end, in my article I cited Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius: “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful US Navy cannot?”

The exact same argument.

5) Global chain reaction

Kagan agrees that this is a global strategic failure that fundamentally changes the U.S.’s position in the world. As he puts it: “America’s once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties… America’s allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.”

You’ll have guessed it, I wrote essentially the same thing: “Think about what it says if you’re Saudi Arabia, quietly watching your American-built defenses fail to protect your own refineries. Or any European country now facing the worst energy shock since 1973, caused not by your enemy but by your ally, and realizing that said ‘ally,’ supposedly in charge of ‘protecting’ you, couldn’t even protect Israel’s most strategic sites - when it’s the country with which it’s joined at the hip. I’m not even speaking about China or Russia who are seeing their worldview being validated on almost every axis simultaneously.”

6) Weapons stocks depleted, credibility shattered

Kagan: “just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.”

Me: “America’s most advanced weapons systems are much more vulnerable than previously thought - not theoretically, but in actual combat.”

Kagan: “America’s allies… must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.”

Me: “The U.S. security guarantee has been empirically falsified in real time.”

-----------

So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower 

Reassuringly though, we still differ on a few fundamental aspects.

Many of those fundamental aspects revolve around the fundamental moral bankruptcy of Jewish Nationalism and the Jewish Supremacy Project in the Middle East.

First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war - not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For [Trump], this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people don’t figure in his mental map.

For me, the moral bankruptcy of this war isn’t separate from the strategic failure - it is the strategic failure. Much like Gaza can only be a failure because of its sheer abjectness.

Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has “checkmated” America.

I know introspection has never been the neocon forte but at some point you have to stop setting houses on fire and then writing op-eds about how surprising the smoke is.

Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kagan’s article - showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a “checkmate” by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” yet an the other hand his solution for it is… surprise, surprise… a bigger war still!

He writes that what’s to be done is “engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.”

The arsonist’s solution to the fire is a bigger fire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

For my end, this was the conclusion of my previous article:

“There is almost a Greek tragedy quality to U.S. actions lately where every move taken to escape one’s fate becomes the mechanism that delivers it. The U.S. went to war to reassert dominance - and proved it could no longer dominate. It demanded allies send warships - and revealed it had no real allies. It waged forty years of maximum pressure to break Iran before this moment came - and instead forged the very adversary now capable of meeting it. It started the war in part to have additional leverage over China - and handed the world the spectacle of begging China for help. The prophecy was multipolarity. Every American action to prevent it reveals it instead.”

I wouldn’t change a word. The only thing that’s changed since I wrote it is that even the arsonists now smell the smoke.

Iran’s obliterated, sunken, navy has risen from the depths—briefly. After a brief surface maneuver, the recently deployed Ghadir class vessels returned to the depths. This development is obviously intended to deter forays into the Strait by US destroyers.

Press TV @PressTV

11h

Iran’s Navy Commander, Rear Admiral Irani:

Iran’s domestically built light submarines—known as dolphins of the Persian Gulf—are being deployed and expanded in the Strait of Hormuz based on threats, capabilities, and operational needs, remaining on alert and ready for action.

These light submarines can “bottom rest” on the seabed for long periods in the strategic waters of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing them to monitor and, if necessary, engage hostile vessels. This is part of their capability to track and neutralize enemy ships.

These small, quiet diesel subs carry two modern torpedoes and have additional capabilities suitable for the shallow waters of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman:

Ghadir submarines are said to have launched Valfajr and Hoot torpedoes. Anti-ship cruise missiles Nasr-1 and Jask-2 are both reportedly launched successfully, the latter being developed specifically for launch from submarines. The ships in the class are also capable of laying naval mines in addition to retrieving frogmen for special operations.

A possible additional use for these subs is suggested by Iran’s renewed warning that it could exercise “control” over undersea internet cables in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. This could prove extremely disruptive for the many US high tech companies with large facilities in the Gulf region:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

May 9

BREAKING:

Fars News now reports that Iran is planing to take control of the undersea cables in the Strait of Hormuz as well

These developments were accompanied with more general warnings from Iran that continued attacks on Iranian ships will lead to Iranian retaliation against “America’s centers in the region” and vessels:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

6h

BREAKING:

 Iran has announced that any attack on Iranian oil tankers will result in direct attacks on U.S. bases throughout the region.

“Warning!

Any exposure to the oil tankers and commercial vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be met with a heavy attack against one of America’s centers in the region and the enemy’s ships in return.”

And an interesting discovery out in the north Arabian desert. The Iraqi government claims it was unaware of this:

Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) @AryJeayBackup

11h

OSINT users found the likely location candidate for the ‘Israeli’ secret military base inside of Iraq to support attacks on Iran.

This USAF E-11A BACN aircraft has been operating near that site, close to Al Nukhib, in the Iraqi desert, flying out of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, for more than 4 days.

Samir @obretix

22h

a temporary ~1.6km airstrip was set up in a dry lake bed about 180km southwest of Najaf/Karbala http://link.dataspace.copernicus.eu/m3xu …

And in latest breaking Iran news, the WSJ is reporting that Iran has rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities in its response to the US “peace proposal”, Netanayahu says Trump told him he (Trump) wants to “go in there” to remove Iran’s enriched uranium. Also:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

BREAKING:  Israeli Channel 13 reports that Israeli Chief of Staff issues distress call to the Knesset: “The army” urgently needs thousands of soldiers or is going to collapse

Lastly, re Iran, Sean Foo today noted that the China - Iran rail link is now fully operational and is capable of handling up to 40% of what was previously handled by Iran’s seaborne links. Add to that the Caspian Sea traffic with Russia and its easy to see why the CIA is reporting that Iran can readily continue as is for at least four months. Probably longer.

Turning to Russia.

Interestingly, on the one hand “the Kremlin” says there is no imminent agreement to end the war in Ukraine, but …

Megatron @Megatron_ron

21h

JUST IN:

 President Putin: ‘I think the war in Ukraine is coming to an end soon’

Given that Putin mentioned no pending agreement, that sounds rather ominous. It’s uncharacteristic of Putin to make such a statement idly. It follows repeated high level warnings from Russia that it will not tolerate continued NATO/Ukraine attacks on its energy infrastructure—including via NATO airspace in Poland, the Baltics, and Finland.

In this regard, earlier today I listened to Scott Ritter on the Cyrus Jannsen show. The video feed was unfortunately far from optimal—unfortunate, because Scott had a variety of interesting observations to make. Of course he repeated what he—and others—has previously said about the looming world energy disaster, especially as the USraeli war on Iran drags on. But he also expanded on the likelihood that Russia is planning a major escalation against NATO/Ukraine in the near future. His argument runs like this.

Russia surprised most analysts at the beginning of the war when it adopted a war of attrition approach and even continued that war of attrition approach after the defeat of the US planned Ukrainian offensives of 2023. Scott argues that this suited Russia’s purposes of destroying US/NATO military capabilities. (I would also argue that Russia’s demographic situation, which has never really recovered from WW2, mandated this approach.) But now, says Scott, the situation is very different. Russia has built up its missile and drone inventories, and the drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have proved damaging to export earnings. Russia, he argues, is now going to take a different approach to put an end to the US/NATO war, and that’s what Putin meant.

Should be a hot summer. And in the meantime, Trump may be going to Beijing.

jeremy scahill @jeremyscahill·

7h

First he was possibly dead, then severely wounded, then not in a position of authority, then Iran in disarray, now he’s playing a critical role. The blockade is working. Now we have Project Freedom. Now we don’t. JD is on his way to Islamabad. No, it’s Steve & Jared. Now no one.

Quote

CNN @CNN

15h

US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

20h

 Tucker says he and Trump had a private talk where he warned Trump that Netanyahu, Shapiro, Lewin — ‘who hate him’ — are pushing a war on Iran for ‘Israeli interests’

“Why?

Weaken Gulf states for ‘regional hegemony’

‘I said that to his face... and he said:

YEAH, I KNOW”

Next, the Epstein suicide note:

Next, Geopolitics—capital “G” to denote big picture stuff—and we begin the pivot to Russia:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

Mackinder’s Dread Realized

The rail and pipelines now connecting Iran, Russia, and China do not REPLACE the ancient maritime routes, they REINFORCE them. They are interior lines of supply that enable the Eurasian entente to bring power to bear all along the maritime perimeter.

Larry Johnson’s article today analyzes some of the issues raised in those maps—recommended. This is essentially about the Anglo-Zionist Empire’s—that’s what Mackinder’s ideas were all about—war to prevent the rise of BRICS, or a multi-polar world:

Russia and China are Serious About Replacing the US as the Persian Gulf Power Brokers

I also recommend Judge Nap’s INTEL Roundtable from yesterday, which covered Iran (first half) and Russia (second half). The discussion of Russia related issues by Larry, Ray, and Scott was quite stimulating. Basically, they agreed that the US backed Euro drone offensive against Russia—which features long range drone attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia as well as the use of Polish, Baltic, and Finnish air space to circumvent Russia AD—has gone so far that a breaking point has been reached. They all predict that Russia will, in the next month or so, react powerfully against the sources of these attacks. Most specifically, Scott Ritter pointed to the St. Petersburg Economic Forum—Russia’s premier annual international conference, which is scheduled for the first week of June. Scott emphasized that there is no way in the world that Russia will allow that conference to be disrupted by drone attacks, and that means drastic steps by Russia. The heat of Russian rhetoric is on a one way trajectory—hotter.

With that in mind, I offer a partial transcript of a conversation between Glenn Diesen and Alex Krainer, which addresses European preparations for war on Russia. Russia is well aware of what’s going on, which is another reason why action is probably imminent. But first a caveat. I know that some readers follow Alex Krainer, and I have certainly quoted him as well. It’s important to understand that Krainer’s views are often colored by his association with the Larouche movement. I don’t say that as some sort of automatic disqualification of his views—if that were the case I wouldn’t be offering this transcript. However, as an example of why I counsel caution, in the earlier part of this conversation Krainer flatly states that UK Ambassador to the US Kim Darroch and the UK government tried to pressure Trump into war on Iran in 2019. I tried to find some sort of confirmation of that statement, but could only find it on a Larouche run web site. In the diplomatic cables—release of which got Darroch recalled from DC for his acerbic criticism of Trump—Darroch characterized Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA as “an act of diplomatic vandalism.” That doesn’t sound like a clarion call to war on Iran.

That said, here’s the portion of the conversation that deals with Euro war plans:

Alex Krainer: Ceasefire in the US-Iran War Is Over — Trump Is Trapped & Defeated

GD: I want to ask you a last question, which is how this Iran war is now affecting Europe’s war, or NATO’s war, or the NATO - Russia war in Ukraine because the Iranian war has obviously taken a lot of resources away from Ukraine. the Americans are still sending weapons but there’s a lot of talk about delays or of weapons being diverted. So if the US has less capabilities and even intentions to commit to the war against Russia in Ukraine, it seems that the Europeans are then—unless they’re going to have peace with Russia, which isn’t on the table—going to have to escalate. And we do some see some cases of this and this is happening of course at a very sensitive time when the US protection of Europe is going away. and also Russia seems now determined to restore its deterrence by hitting back. So it’s a very strange or dangerous time to escalate. And this is when we see now the Europeans, at least some European countries, the UK plus nine northern countries forming this new naval block to confront Russia. I was wondering how do you read this situation? Because if we are going to end up in a massive war with Russia with the Russians possibly launching a limited nuclear strike to restore deterrent, I think this is going to be the most likely pathway now.

Sergey Karaganov is probably the most prominent Russian advocating a nuclear strike on Europe.

AK: Yeah, that’s a very interesting situation, Glenn. So this just happened on 23rd April. The British representatives and the naval chiefs of 10 European nations signed protocols for formation of the Joint Expeditionary Force [JEF], which is really interesting because 10 northern European nations are voluntarily putting their navies under British command, obviously with the intent to create a new military alliance aimed against Russia. So, they intend to basically cut Russia off from its northern maritime routes and to harass Russia. They’re already doing aggressive boarding of Russian ships and inspections of ships suspected of circumventing sanctions or espionage or whatever. So that is forcing the Russians to respond. Apparently Russia is putting FSB linked security personnel on high value tankers, or they’re sending submarines or frigates to accompany the ships. Then, in turn, the British are saying, ‘Oh, Russians incursions into our waters have have been increasing.’ Well, yeah, because you’re harassing them. So, the Russians are obliged to send military escorts with their cargo ships. And then the Brits say, “Oh, look, they’re making incursions into our waters.” It’s like an escalation escalator that is obviously coming and instigating from London again.

So it seems to me that all roads always end up leading to London because this new Joint Expeditionary Force--obviously crafted to antagonize Russia--is again a brainchild of the British governing establishment with headquarters in London. With operational control in London, with a British general who is the top commander of this structure. They’re not there yet, because they have given themselves about four years to completely bring this these forces in sync. Meaning, they still have different equipment, different electronic standards, different munitions, and different types of weaponry. So they want to harmonize all this so that they can operate as a single military unit, and that’s going to be a process and an investment. But again, the mysterious aspect to this that needs to be explained is, Why would 10 European nations agree to put themselves at risk of war with a nuclear power and submit their navies to the control of a London based command and control center? Why did they agree to be led by a power that’s obviously has aggressive designs towards Russia? Why wouldn’t any of these nations say, “Well, maybe it better serves our interest to find a way of cooperating with Russia to have peaceful coexistence so that everybody could be safe and everybody could trade with one another and we can focus on developing our economies.” And instead of that, they all sign up to an agenda that has very high risks of bringing them to a devastating war against a nuclear power. That is that is really difficult to explain.

Furthermore, all 10 of these nations are NATO members. They’re already in a military alliance. Why do they need a new military alliance? Well, they say that they need to be more agile. They don’t want to deal with the whole NATO baggage, the bureaucracy that might inhibit their freedom to act. So, they created a new alliance, but if that alliance gets into trouble against Russia, then they’re going to say, “Oh, we’re NATO member nations. Article 5, everybody has to now unite and go to war against Russia.” So it’s basically a trip wire, but it’s being done deliberately and it’s taking the whole world to the precipice of World War III. And we have to take that situation seriously. And then they’re also saying, we need this because we need to bring the focus back from the Middle East to Russia, because the Middle East may be Trump’s obsession, but London is still primarily obsessed with Ukraine and Russia and they’re losing there. So, they need a second front. It was meant to be the Balkans. The war drive in the Balkans has dissipated since Trump came into the White House. So now they’re instigating it in the Baltics. But it’s this cabal that is pushing us into World War III. And for the reasons that we discussed, their designs are essentially hegemonic. They they will not give up. They will never give up. They’ve been trying to take control of Russia for more than 200 years. And they never stopped. And so they will not stop again until one side or the other is completely defeated and destroyed.

Krainer, typically, is speaking in a sort of code. The people he describes as seeking control over Russia for more than 200 years are the Jewish banking interests centered, especially, in the City of London, who served as the financiers of the British Empire starting with the Napoleonic wars—check it out, that was a bit more than 200 years ago. These financial interests financed British wars and Britains exanding imperial ambitions around the world—Crimea, India, South Africa, Russo - Japanese (the Rothschilds financed the British building of the Japanese navy that defeated the Russian navy), Palestine. But revenge against Russia was always a strong motivating factor, to include backing the 1905 rebellion and later the Bolsheviks seizure of power.

GD: Yeah. I think the reason they’re willing to essentially risk their own countries instead of pursuing basic national interests by adjusting to the new balance of powers--because this is not simply a war about whether or not Europe should be a part of Russia or Ukraine. This is a war about do we have a multipolar system or unipolar with collective hegemony. And I think if they can push back the Russians, then they’ll have this powerful Ukrainian shield in front of them, the Americans will return, standing behind them. And this is the formula for collective hegemony. And if they begin to pursue common sense and trade and accept a new status quo, that means a new distribution of power. A multipolar system. It’s not that different actually from Iran. It’s not that different from the Americans sending the economic war against China, which they could both prosper if they cooperated but that means they have to live next to China as an equal and I don’t think there’s, again, I think this major struggle about what kind of world order--we’re not really past this yet. My prediction is gonna end. You know, this new world will be born in blood and fire, not diplomacy, unfortunately. So, I hope I’m wrong though.

AK: Blood and fire and viruses, Glenn, that’s coming!

I’ll wind up with some links from the past, background reading:

The War Among The Jews

Poles, Catholics, Jews, Russians ...

Money Matters

my wife and I have an intellectual disagreement about peasants

You’ll notice that I felt obliged to do a bit more editing than usual, but nothing basic was changed.

Financial Seizure BACKFIRES On US Banks As Washington Desperate For China Investments

So the Trump - Xi summit is approaching, and the US is getting really desperate for a big geopolitical win. It’s obvious [that Trump’s] war on Iran isn’t going well, and the Chinese aren’t really keen on meeting Trump either--not when the Middle East is still on fire. [But put yourself in China’s place. You’re] getting threats of US sanctions while you’re still facing down US tariffs. At the same time, Trump is going to demand from you investments and help [in] breaking through Iran’s blockade. Now, China wants the war to be resolved before proper talks can really begin, and the Chinese are beginning to stack the deck in their favor. Remember the sanctions Scott Bessent imposed on Chinese refineries? Well, China is playing possum before the summit. The Chinese are asking their biggest banks to pause new loans to US sanctioned refiners. [At first glance that might lead you to] believe that Beijing is trying to protect their biggest banks--such as ICBC or Bank of China--from sanctions. It looks like a concession to Trump, but China still has smaller institutions--like the Bank of Kunlun [KLB]--that are already sanctioned that they can tap on. This is a bargaining chip to use against Trump. But at the same time, the Chinese aren’t calling in the existing loans made to the refiners. So, the Chinese are still actively defying US sanctions here.

Is Trump coming in good faith or not? China’s getting really tired and they’re wary of Washington weaponizing the dollar system. It breaks down trade, makes doing business more expensive, and everything becomes uncertain. It’s not just official Chinese assets at risk. Beijing holds nearly $700 billion in US Treasury bonds. But companies in China are finding the sanctions regime untenable because, even if you want to comply with them, the goal post keeps shifting and your money is always at risk. US financial sanctions are backfiring on the largest American banks, JP Morgan and Citi. They’re getting sued by a Chinese energy company, and the suit revolves around the big banks freezing payments from HY Energy Group meant for China Oil and Petroleum, a firm that later came under US sanctions. The amount of money in question is relatively small compared to the billions of dollars we’re all used to seeing--[two transfers amounting to] sums of $27 million and $13.5 million were blocked. But the most concerning part was that the funds were apparently given to the US Treasury sanction department [OFAC]. [That would mean that] Chinese money is actually flowing to the US government for [its own] benefit. Is OFAC using [private] US banks as their own personal confiscation squad?

One can expect this matter to be a topic during the summit at the sidelines. Bessent will most definitely be questioned about it. This highlights the risk of any other country using US intermediary banks. You don’t know what’s going to happen. The Chinese energy firm likely went through Swift to make the transfer that allowed the transaction to be tracked as well. Now, a big part of the argument lies on the timing of the freeze. The Chinese company is furious about how the sanctions were handled. The execution of the sanctions leaves much to be desired. According to HY Energy, the transfers were blocked as early as July 2023. That’s a big problem, because the recipient, the China Oil Company, was only added to the US sanctions list in February 2024. Is this a premature freezing of assets? It’s not even a retroactive action because this seizure was done before the sanctions even hit. And the company wants the banks to be liable for the financial losses.

This situation is one big mess that Washington just conjured up for Wall Street. US banks [could] now [be] on the hook for US sanctions. It would have never happened, would never have been a problem, if the US hadn’t weaponized the American financial system in the first place. Now, this isn’t a Trump problem. This happened during the Biden era. But it is an additional crisis for Bessent to handle, because HY Energy has called for OFAC to unfreeze the money. This is where things get quite tricky. If Bessent unfreezes the money, it will be a huge loss of face for the US sanctions regime. It would be spun not as the US admitting to a mistake but as a capitulation to Beijing. Trump wouldn’t look strong in front of the world, and that in itself is a big problem.

But the US is running out of options here because, no matter what Trump thinks, US companies benefit a lot from the Chinese economy. They don’t just sell exports or products to China. Many of them have branches in China itself. Walmart, for example, is earning a lot of money from Chinese consumers. Growth is at double digits, hitting way above 21% year on ear, thanks to e-commerce. For the full fiscal year, Walmart China earned nearly $25 billion in net sales. Their business in China is outperforming the global average. But if US banking sanctions get out of hand, China could start imposing restrictions on US companies operating in China. They could mandate that US companies use Chinese banks in addition to their own American banks. And this can be easily done by demanding that payment to suppliers or employees be done in RMB through Chinese accounts. Furthermore, local suppliers or customers of US companies in China might be forced to go through only Chinese banks as intermediaries, and this will ring fence more of the Chinese economy away from American banks--basically snatching away more business.

Beijing has the leverage here. S&P 500 revenue from the Chinese economy is enormous. It’s six times the entire amount of US exports to China. And we aren’t just talking about US goods. This number also includes services, US entertainment, education, and financial services. Over $1.1 trillion of S&P revenue came from the Chinese. And who is in the middle of all these transactions? US banks. This can come from handling the cash of the firms. They help handle payments to employees and vendors. US banks assist with trade, finance, and insurance. They also help with currency exchange from the Chinese RMB back to US dollars before sending it back to the United States. So US banks earn quite a lot of money from this back and forth. And all this can be replaced with Chinese banks if Beijing gets tired of US sanctions.

Now I’m not saying it will happen tomorrow, but you’d best believe they have the leverage. The Chinese economy is too big to ignore. The S&P companies will comply in order to stay in China.

These are the largest banks in the world.

In blue you have the American banks, and these are the names that most people around the world know. You have JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citi, and Goldman Sachs. And yes, they do hold a ton of assets. But Chinese banks are the biggest in the world. These are the entities in red. ICBC alone has over $7 trillion in assets. That’s double the assets of Bank of America. It’s more than three times the size of Wells Fargo. That’s why China isn’t really afraid of US sanctions. And if pushed to a corner, China could very easily weaponize their financial system. They have the size and they have the infrastructure. They could just as easily go, ‘if a US company wants to deal or sell in China, you have to go through our Chinese banks.’ So pushing Beijing to the edge with sanctions and confiscating assets is not a road the US really wants to go down here.

And as we speak, Trump is currently on his way to China. He’s flying to Beijing to make a deal. Now Trump really, really, really wants to score a win with the Chinese economy, but this won’t be an easy sell--not to the Chinese. And guess who Trump is bringing along on this ride? US financial giants including Blackstone and Citi Group. Their top executives are heading to Beijing to do more business in China. Now, one can see how awkward things really are, especially when the Treasury is threatening to call down fire and brimstone on Chinese banks. Not so sure how Beijing is going to receive this delegation, but it’s all about deal making today. And Trump is bringing all the big dogs with him to make deals. It’s basically a run to Beijing to help save the US economy with Chinese RMB revenue.

Now, in addition to Blackstone and Citi, we have other giants scooting over to Beijing. This includes Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, and Visa. The agenda should be really crystal clear here. Nvidia wants to sell more US AI chips to Beijing. They desperately need the revenue. [After Trump’s sanctions on chips blew up in his face, Nvidia’s market share in China is ZERO.] Apple also wants to sell more phones to Chinese customers. The competition they’re getting from Huawei and Xiaomi is really making them sweat. For Exxon, the agenda is mighty simple. They want China to buy more oil and gas--especially LNG from the United States--to ask Xi Jinping to move some business from Russia to US energy companies. Once again, this is going to be a tough sell. Imagine the Chinese shift energy dependency from an ally to an adversary. It’s not gonna happen. Maybe at the margins, but not in a serious way. Even before Trump’s trip to China, Republicans are flying over there as well, with the underlying expectation of China buying Boeing airplanes. It’s all about saving US industries and manufacturing via Chinese demand.

But what’s really interesting is that the US payment processor, Visa, is also heading to China. They’re desperate to maintain market share depth despite the backdrop of US sanctions. Union Pay is China’s own retail payment processor. Most credit cards in the world are cleared by either Visa or Mastercard, but the Chinese economy has their own domestic alternative called Union Pay. And inside China, they have over 90% of market share. But their global reach is expanding really fast. Countries around the world accept Union Pay cards because the Chinese consumer is growing and they are starting to spend more. In 2025, Union Pay processed over $23.4 trillion in transactions globally. It’s a strong annual growth of 9.5%. And this represents 34% of global transactions. In fact, 43% of Union Pay transactions now occur outside of China--not inside China, but outside. [It’s easy to] imagine Visa freaking out and doing their best to regain lost market share inside China. Now I don’t know what schemes or what reward plans they have for the Chinese consumer. Will it really be enough to overcome the lingering threat of sanctions? [After all] the US Treasury, through sanctions, can always shut down banking transactions. They can also force payment processers to obey Washington. So, once again this is going to be yet another tough sell.

A few weeks ago the US leadership was bashing China. Trump himself didn’t like the idea of China supplying Iran with weapons. We can all remember Bessent also hammering China’s support for Iran [through its purchases of] Iranian oil, but the US economy needs China for their own growth ambitions. Trump himself--this is hilarious--he’s doing an epic U-turn when it comes to the situation with the Chinese. Suddenly, he has no problem and Beijing is awesome in his books.

Trump: “Done very well with China. We’re going to have a meeting with President Xi. It’s going to be, I think, quite amazing. He’s been a, he’s been a friend of mine. I got, I’ve gotten along with him very well over the years. We have had no problem, and we’ve had no problem with China and, you know, everybody said, “Oh, China, China. We’ve had no problem with China.”

Now, everyone knows that Trump probably doesn’t mean [any of this], but he has no choice but to play nice. China has shown incredible backbone by resisting US sanctions. They’re still buying Iranian oil and possibly helping Iran’s economy in other ways. China also doesn’t need the US economy as much as the US needs [China’s economy]. Beijing can get their oil from Russia and they can make their own domestic AI chips. The Chinese banking system and payment rails are also very self-sufficient. They can stand alone. So Trump isn’t going there with a full set of cards. Even if he has five cards on hand to play poker with President Xi, the cards were probably made in China as well. The summit would more or less be a nothing burger. We shouldn’t really have some expectation of a big major deal. China is still furious about the war on Iran and the big disruption to their supply chains.

Here’s a bonus quote of Joe Kent regarding “negotiations” with Iran. It all adds up to Trump not calling the shots:

Trump’s Only Viable Exit From Iran /Joe Kent & Lt Col Daniel Davis

DD: Do you have any idea of why this fellow from the Foundation for the Defense Democracies [FDD - core neocon outfit] was publicly put on the negotiating team?--which is as big of an undisguised poison pill as you can get for the Iranians, to put that guy, who’s definitely a neocon, etc. Why would President Trump allow somebody like that to be put on the team with Witkoff and Kushner--two poison pills, if you will, that the Iranian side already didn’t like?

JK: Yeah, this is what I don’t understand. And people will say, “Hey, your resignation letter was deeply conspiratorial. Do you really think that the Israeli lobby has this much control over President Trump?” And from what I saw from the inside, they most certainly do. That echo chamber I described of official engagements--the engagements from the donors, the pro- Israel media wings--FDD is kind of there in the middle as a think tank. But why, at this juncture, would President Trump feel that he needs--after going ahead and launching this operation against Iran on behalf of the Israelis--why would he feel the need to put a person from the Israeli lobby on the negotiating team? There’s really only one answer to that. I mean, that’s basically that the donor class, the Israel lobby, gets to pick who goes and negotiates on behalf of the American government. And I hate to say it that way. I don’t like that. However, when you’ve already got Witkoff and Kushner--who are definitely pro pro-Israel--on the negotiating team ... and then we put in a guy from FDD. ... That points exactly to how much influence the Israeli lobby--whatever you want to call it, the echo chamber--has over our government decision-making. And that is a major issue.

The short version is simply that we Americans have agents of a foreign power doing “our” negotiating—except that they’re not negotiating for America’s benefit. They’re negotiating on behalf of Israel. Count on it. The Chinese understand that, too. I know that from my past work experience.