Trump Looking To TACO Finally?

Up till the last moment Trump tried to use threats to get Iran to return to fake negotiations in Islamabad—fake, because there was a total lack of seriousness on the Anglo-Zionist side. It was just cover while Trump tried to figure out some sort of off ramp. Unfortunately for Trump, Iran was fed up with his act and refused to participate. So, late this afternoon, desperate, Trump announced a unilateral and indefinite ceasefire:

Let me offer a H/T to John Mearsheimer. I’m listening to him and Chris Hedges as I type [highly recommended]. Mearsheimer, speaking before Trump’s semi-fictional announcement—the claim of Iranian division is nonsense—stressed Trump’s desperate position and speculated that, in lieu of an insane escalation—insane in its impact on the world economy, which we discussed earlier—Trump might simply extend the ceasefire. Think about that in the context of what most are calling a massive buildup of US forces in the region. At this point, that looks like one very expensive bluff—with no regard for military personnel. Unless it’s all a prelude to another sneak attack.

Now, what’s the point of an indefinite ceasefire? Obviously, I can only speculate. However, it occurs to me that Trump may actually be hoping that the ceasefire can hold up to May 2—barely more than a week off—when Congress is likely to refuse War Powers against Iran. That’s a rough and ready off ramp for Trump. He can try to shift blame to Congress. Of course, a blockade is an act of war. Presumably Trump will comply with a Congressional refusal and stop the blockade. The big question will be whether Israel will attack Iran unilaterally. That seems doubtful, if Trump is serious, for the simple reason that Israeli attacks are almost totally dependent on US intel and refueling support.

If I understand this correctly, Iran doesn’t appear to be buying into this. Trump has declared a ceasefire, but Iran is stating that it sees no point in talking to the US side.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

 BREAKING! Iran Pulls Out of Wednesday Islamabad Talks — Tasnim News

Iran has formally notified the United States through Pakistani mediators that it will not attend Wednesday’s scheduled negotiations in Islamabad, with no timeline set for future rounds, according to Tasnim News Agency.

The decision follows what Tehran describes as a pattern of American bad faith since the ceasefire framework was agreed upon.

According to Tasnim’s sources, Iran accepted a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations based on a 10-point framework it submitted — which Washington formally accepted through Pakistani intermediaries.

However, the U.S. almost immediately began walking back its commitments.

First, Washington failed to pressure Israel into implementing the Lebanon ceasefire as agreed — stalling talks for several days. Then, during the first Islamabad round, the U.S. introduced demands that far exceeded the original framework, effectively torpedoing the negotiations. Tehran’s assessment: having failed on the battlefield, Washington was trying to compensate through maximalist demands at the table.

Iran subsequently issued a firm warning of missile strikes on Israel, which Tasnim says forced the U.S. to finally operationalize the Lebanon ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi then announced Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping in line with the initial framework — only for the U.S. to continue its naval blockade regardless.

Recent message exchanges produced no meaningful progress, with Washington refusing to retreat from demands Tehran considers violations of Iran’s sovereign rights.

Iran has now concluded that returning to talks under these conditions would be a waste of time, as the U.S. is blocking any viable agreement. The decision has been communicated to Washington via Islamabad.

Reading between those lines, we conclude: Trump does realize that Iran is in the driver’s seat, but cannot do the deal he desperately needs because he’s desperately afraid of Jewish Nationalists. As well as the damage to his ego. Well, that damage will come.

In the meantime, all the questions remain. Will Trump use that force buildup to reoccupy regional bases and, if he does, how will Iran react? Since Trump claims to be maintaining the blockade—which, by all accounts, is quite porous—again, how will Iran react? How will the rest of the Gulf region react and how will the rest of the world react—not least, China and Russia? Will Iran pull the trigger on another Red Sea blockade, to shut off all Saudi oil flow? Did I mention sanctions? Yeah, sanctions. Again, Iran is in the driver’s sea. Trump needs a deal badly to avoid catastrophe, but his ego so far won’t allow him to do the only available deal—the one that Iran dictates.

And then there’s the domestic political consequences. It seems to me that Trump is in deep doo-doo and is moving into even deeper doo-doo. This looks to be all about damage control, and that op isn’t off to a good start.

We’ll start with a fairly detailed explanation of the dynamics that are at work here. Note that only the oil situation is addressed. Not the fertilizer or other angles.

Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem

The oil market just passed its breaking point. And it doesn’t matter if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow. Here’s why the damage is already done. 

Even if a ceasefire is signed TODAY:

• Floating tankers need 30–40 days to offload

• VLCCs [Very Large Crude Carrier] rerouted to the US need 3+ months to return

• Onshore Middle East storage needs to drain ~200M bbls first

The supply gap doesn’t care about peace deals.

Cumulative storage lost from Hormuz closure:

• End of April → 1.2 billion bbls

• End of May → 1.59 billion bbls

• End of June → 1.98 billion bbls

This is 4x larger than any supply outage in history. There is no playbook for this.

The cycle playing out right now:

↑ Crude prices

→ Compressed refining margins

→ Lower refined product output

→ Product storage draws

→ Higher margins again

→ Higher throughput

→ ↑ Crude prices again

Rinse. Repeat. Until something breaks.

By end of July, US commercial crude storage could fall below 400M bbls — near operational minimum. At that point, the Trump administration faces a binary choice: Ban crude exports. Or watch US refineries shut down. Neither option is good for markets.

The only thing that “balances” this market now is demand destruction on the scale of COVID lockdowns. Not lower prices. Not diplomacy. Government mandates forcing people to use less fuel. That’s the math. $95/bbl is not the answer.

The last marginal barrel — the one that keeps a refinery running vs. shutting down — What does it trade for?

Nobody knows. And that’s the most terrifying thing about this crisis. What’s your number? 

Source & credit: @HFI_Research

Full write-up: “The Breaking Point Is Here” — published April 2026.

Now, up top we mentioned the Iranian position, which boils down to: Anglo-Zionist war on Iran means Iran will wage war on anyone who supports the Anglo-Zionist Empire against Iran. The logic is clear and straightforward. Please read the excerpt below carefully. It concisely explains what this current crisis is about: The Anglo-Zionist drive to control the entire world by weaponizing the dollar-based financial system—backed up by the US military, whose oversized reach was enabled by that same dollar-based financial system.

Policy Tensor @policytensor

18h

Michael Hudson is not mincing any words.

Doug Macgregor comments on these topics, and more, here:

Col Doug Macgregor IRAN WILL SURVIVE NO MATTER WHAT

I think what we need to do is go back to the previous meeting in Islamabad and look at what actually occurred. The first thing which I think is very revealing is that the Iranians showed up with 70 people. They had large numbers of experts in various fields. They were carrying maps, geological surveys. They were loaded for bear frankly to discuss in detail what they would accept in terms of conditions, what they would not, and what they would negotiate. We showed up with VP Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner who had previously been judged as unwanted members of the delegation. The Iranians simply said, “We regard these people as Israeli assets, and frankly that’s what everybody does see them as. We don’t see them as representing American national interests.” So they were prepared to talk with Vice President Vance, but not Witkoff and Kushner. Unfortunately, as far as we know, there was otherwise no supporting staff.

Now, this is not the first time that this has happened. This happened in Anchorage. The Russians showed up and were prepared for very substantive talks. They brought with them all sorts of material pertaining to Ukraine, current state of affairs, troop locations, recommended solutions, and so forth. We showed up with nothing. Trump thought that he was going to charm his way into some sort of agreement. As it turned out, he conveyed the impression that we were prepared in the future to do all sorts of things. And it took some time for the Russians to discover that they were being lied to. Now, I think the Iranians know they’ve been lied to. So, what can we expect from this meeting? You have the same people. Are they walking in with anything of substance? Are they prepared to sit there not for a day or two, but for however long it takes to reach some sort of agreement? I’m very skeptical and I’m sure that the Iranians are very skeptical.

So, that’s the first part. The second part is, as far as I can tell, and I don’t have access to classified information, the Iranians have made it pretty clear that the time for negotiation, as far as they’re concerned, is over. They’re not interested in talking anymore. Frankly, there was a lot of Iranian opposition to signing on for the ceasefire that we wanted. Thanks to Donald Trump and the support from the media that he gets with regard to his public statements, the American people were under the impression that somehow or other, we were in the driver’s seat. We’re not. The strategic initiative firmly rests in Iranian hands. So, at this stage, I have to see tangible evidence from the Iranians that they have agreed to show up. Otherwise my assumption is Vance and the two assets will fly in and meet with themselves. But right now there’s just nothing from the Iranian government that substantiates the willingness to participate in a meeting.

Then finally this point, the Iranians aren’t asking for this meeting. And contrary to what Donald Trump says, they don’t need a deal. That’s a bunch of crap. Donald Trump, I think, is finally beginning to come to terms with the reality that he’s responsible for sending the world into what is likely going to be at best a deep recession and more likely a depression. We’re headed to a recession and the question now is how bad is it going to get? We can talk more about that in the future during the hour. But I think I think the American people have been blindsided and Trump blindsides everybody over and over and over again with nonsense. ...

Just a week or two ago, I said that Donald Trump is beginning to realize that he faces national humiliation here at home and international humiliation abroad. He’s walked into a giant bear trap and he’s stuck and there’s no easy way out. One of the things that I think is most important for everybody to understand right now is that Donald Trump has single-handedly reversed the green revolution. Now, a lot of Americans today don’t understand what that was. But the truth is, in the aftermath of World War II, we developed fertilizers, exceptional fertilizers, ways to grow food that we had not had previously. This green revolution allowed hundreds of millions, actually billions of people to live an infinitely better life. And naturally, that also meant they could reproduce.

The global south right now is in terrible shape. Whether it’s Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, all of these countries now are suffering. One of the reasons they’re suffering is because 50% of the world’s supply of urea comes from the Middle East. comes through the Persian Gulf. Iran alone is the second largest global supplier. Global urea production is roughly 220 million tons a year. And why is it produced in such large quantities? Well, that’s because other than pneumonia, urea has the largest and highest nitrogen content of all industrial chemicals. The point is that these fertilizers with nitrogen and phosphate combined with urea are coming from major suppliers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia and sulfur. Nearly 50% of the world’s sulfur exports pass through the strait. We talk all the time about oil. Yes, oil is a problem. Roughly 10 million to perhaps 13 million barrels of oil globally are missing. But it’s not just oil. It’s all of these petroleum products and those things connected with it. I think Donald Trump is taking phone calls now and if he isn’t then somebody else at his office is from world leaders telling him, “Look, whatever you think you were going to accomplish, it hasn’t worked. The world is in a lot of trouble. You’ve got to get out of this because if you don’t, we’re going to face famine around the world in many key areas in the global south. We’re probably going to go into a depression.” …, the bottom line is this can’t go on. And Trump doesn’t want to admit the truth that the Navy has lost control of the global sea routes. It’s lost control of the straight of Hormuz, although it really never had it. And Middle East energy infrastructure is being destroyed. And the Iranians have made it abundantly clear. If you attack us this next time around, try to wipe out our oil infrastructure, try to destroy our deselination plants, we will respond in kind to the west coast of the Persian Gulf and that would be devastating to the world. In fact, many of those areas may never come back as they once were. I doubt it. Seriously.

Nobody is thinking about the larger issues. That’s why the commentary at the beginning about the global economy and the danger that is approaching right now around the planet is something that doesn’t even show up in any of the president’s commentary or speeches. You know, the farmers collectively in the United States sent a letter to Trump. I forgot the name of the agricultural organization that that represented them, but it was a very interesting letter. It was very sound and very straightforward and said, “Look, if you keep this up, it’s going to destroy us. We won’t survive it. It’s not just fertilizer. It’s a whole range of things that are important to farming.” You would think that if you’re hearing from farmers collectively in the United States, the people that grow our food, and they were asking you to reconsider, you would do so. But, ultimately, this is not about them. It’s not about anything but Donald Trump. We’ve got to go back to Roy Cohn and Roy Cohn’s systematic brainwashing of Donald Trump as a young man. And Donald Trump has gotten away with lots of things. I mean, the man’s declared bankruptcy six times in his life. He’s turned it into a business model. And what did he do after declaring bankruptcy? Washes his hands and walks away.

I think Donald Trump is still the marketing genius that he always was. He’s a con man. He sold everybody a bill of goods. Now he’s in a very difficult position and he’s going to ask the US military to rescue him. ... Asking him to step down or step away from a bad decision with terrible strategic implications for us and the rest of the world is not something he’s going to even understand. In his mind ... he’s the greatest. Just ask him, he’ll tell you.

I’ll wrap up with this. I stand by my claim that what we’re seeing in Trump’s behavior is character based—not dementia based (Robert Barnes’ narrative). Character based flaws like narcissism that—as Mac points out—have been reinforced by a lifetime of experience of getting away with things—no doubt can be reinforced by age and loss of ordinary controls. But they can also be exacerbated by crises, such as finding oneself trapped, in a box, with no available ways out like those that always worked in the past. Trump is in the tightest spot he’s ever been in in his life. And he walked right into it. There is no plausible way out. He owns it, on the world stage.

In that connection, I want to recommend two Max Blumenthal interviews today:

Max Blumenthal : The Islamabad Negotiations Are a Hoax

Max Blumenthal: Israel’s Defeat Begins: Zionist Power Structure FALLING APART in the US

The first of the interviews is with Judge Nap, so it’s short and pithy. In it Max explodes another Barnes narrative—Veep Vance as the good guy in a white hat who’s trying to save the world. Max discusses Vance’s mentorship under David Frum in college and his current fund raising barnstorming with … Paul Singer and Miriam Adelson. Listen to Max. I enjoy Barnes and often find that he has genuine insights. But always exercise critical judgment.

I’m not under any pressure

I wasn’t talked into this insane war by Israel

and now, and perhaps most tellingly,

My deal will be better than Obama’s.

Right. The truth, as usual with Trump, is different. It was because Trump walked away from Obama’s JCPOA—having been paid to do so by Jewish Nationalists—that Trump finds himself in a box. Thus, he now has to try to gaslight Americans into believing that the coming economic downturn was necessary to preserve us from Iranians walking into grocery stores wearing nuclear suicide vests.

Before we get to the latest Trump tweet, here’s what I saw last night. Make of it what you will—I didn’t comment on it last night because, while it purports to be the deal that Veep Vance worked out, I had also heard that Trump nixed it in favor of more threats:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

 Details of the latest U.S.-Iran draft proposal, according to Amit Segal & various other sources:

Amit Segal is an Israeli journalist, radio and television personality. He serves as the political commentator of Israel’s Channel 12 news and a political columnist for the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper. He is regarded as one of the most influential journalists in Israel. Nowadays, he serves as an anchor of the Israeli Meet the Press, alongside Ben Caspit.

– Iran agrees to a 15-year enrichment suspension, with the exception of research reactors for medical isotopes.

– Iran’s stockpile of 60% and 20% uranium would be partially converted to reactor fuel, and partially ‘downblended’ to a lower enrichment level. However, it won’t leave Iran.

– Full IAEA supervison on Iran’s nuclear sites.

– Opening the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility of collecting tolls.

– The U.S. will offer Iran phased sanctions relief

– The U.S. will unfreeze all Iranian assets currently frozen abroad, amounting to $20 Billion or more.

– The U.S. will commit to a non-aggression pact with Iran that is ensured through a UN National Security Council resolution and a treaty ratified by Congress.

– The U.S. will withdraw all its military forces from the Persian Gulf.

For me, what jumps out of this, at first glance, is that there is no mention of Iran’s missile program. But we can’t be sure that this account is comprehensive. Moreover, even if this is genuine—in whole or in part—it might well be subject to further negotiation. For example, details on some “phased sanctions relief.”

However, if anything remotely like this is true, then it represents something very much like capitulation by Trump—the provisions re Hormuz and withdrawal of US forces alone are an admission of defeat. And, if Trump’s new defensive tone reflects this, it suggests that the reality of Iran’s leverage and strategic advantage—as well as the necessity of ending his war ASAP for economic reasons—has finally got through to Trump. It would suggest that he’s at the end of the tether and realizes that Iran is serious and that more game playing will only make matters worse.

Again, this is what’s circulating in Israel. Presumably Segal has very good sources in the Israeli government and, of course, Trump is required to report to Israel every day.

Here’s that tweet, preceded by commentary:

GeoInsider @InsiderGeo

Looking at Trump’s latest post, something’s shifting. Tone is completely different from the last 48 hours.

No more “no more Mr. Nice Guy,” no regime change, no threats on power plants. Instead he’s building a comparison with Obama’s JCPOA.

“My deal will be far better.” When a president starts explaining why his deal beats his predecessor’s, a deal is usually coming.

Notice what’s missing. No mention of uranium transfer to the US. No “zero enrichment.” No “no money exchanged.” All the hard points Iran publicly rejected.

He’s quietly dropping them without admitting it. Classic Trump pattern, max pressure to get them to the table, then walk back the maximalist positions once they’re seated. Same playbook as North Korea 2018, Mexico tariffs, China trade.

My read: Trump is already pre-selling the deal that’s coming. The fact that he’s framing it against JCPOA suggests the final agreement will probably look more like JCPOA than he’ll ever admit. Some monitoring, some enrichment limits, probably no physical uranium transfer like he claimed yesterday.

Packaged as “the greatest deal in history” for domestic consumption.

The difference this time around is:

Trump’s approval ratings are in the toilet.

Americans didn’t want this war in the first place and feel betrayed by the way did it and the fact that he went back on his campaign pledges.

Americans are going to be blaming Trump for inflation—they already are—because the linkage between the war and gas prices is strong.

As a result, Americans will not be thanking Trump for starting a war and only ending it after losing it.

Nor will Americans thank Trump for getting Iran to renounce the nuclear weapons that it had already forsworn 23 years ago.

Additionally, Americans who are disillusioned with the whole Israel and Jewish Supremacy brand will not be happy if Israel’s nukes and genocide aren’t addressed.

Dems will be hammering home all of the above.

Jewish Nationalists and their shabbos goys will also feel betrayed.

We shall see how this plays out. The issues of Gaza and Hezbollah remain, probably also Syria—from which US forces have withdrawn in the last few days. But there’s much more—Iraq, the Gulf states, etc. A US withdrawal from the Gulf would also undermine the petrodollar system. That this kind of speculation is out there speaks volumes about how serious the economic situation is looking.

Once again. This is all speculative. There are all sorts of problem remaining, which may or may not have been addressed. If any of this is true, I’m pretty sure Iran will be driving a hard bargain.

He claims to be under “no pressure whatsoever,” but his tweets tell a different story. Most people will take this as confirmation of what they already knew—Trump is an agent under direction and control of forces that aren’t loyal to America.

And speaking of the FAKE NEWS:

Judd Legum @JuddLegum

6h

Articles about Jared Kushner’s diplomatic role with Iran that mention Kushner has received billions from the Saudi government (2/28-4/19):

NYT: 5 of 58

WashPost: 1 of 43

WSJ: 0 of 40

AP: 0 of 26

CNN Wire: 0 of 18

NY Post: 0 of 17

Chicago Tribune: 0 of 4

LA Times: 0 of 4

Boston Globe: 0 of 2

Professor Robert Pape—he of the “escalation trap”—presents this dilemma in short and long forms today. Here’s the short form:

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

4h

This morning on Morning Joe, something subtle but profound happened

For an hour, the discussion wasn’t whether Iran had been weakened

It was about the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations, and what happens now that Iran can’t be ignored

That’s a shift

Iran’s innovation:

Not dominance -- It is Denial

Using missiles, drones, mines, and geography to create persistent risk

They don’t need to close the Strait completely

They just need to make it uncertain -- and that’s enough to shift global behavior

This creates a profound choice:

Accept Iran as a 4th center of global power—

or try to break that leverage at enormous cost

That’s the Escalation Trap

My full analysis (and what happens next) is at the substack The Escalation Trap:

Note the contrast: The Anglo-Zionists lose by not winning—and winning decisively. Iran wins by not losing.

Trump is floundering, trying to come up with a way out of the first alternative—accepting defeat. But the only alternative is escalation—which is also a loser, just possibly a bit slower. In fact, escalation threatens the world with an imminent economic depression. Thus, Trump needs a way out, and he needs it fast. That’s why he’s once again threatening Iran with infrastructure destruction on a massive scale if Iran doesn’t sign a deal—was it last night? Or tonight?

Iran’s response? ‘We don’t know what agreement you’re talking about—there is none—and, anyway, we’re not going to negotiate.’ In fact, the Iranians are openly mocking Trump, pointing out that what the world really needs is physical energy—not a Dow at 50K. Economies run on physical energy, not the Dow index. Worse, the world economy can run without King Dollar, which is leading to Anglo-Zionist isolation. And Iran controls enough of the energy flow to threaten global economic stability—and that’s what’s leading to the subtle shift that Pape describes. Can the US military bomb Iran back to the stone age? It doesn’t really matter, because Iran can—and is explicitly threatening to—basically stop all energy out of the Middle East. That’s their way of calling Trump’s bluff. Is Trump willing to cut his nose to spite his face? Time is running out.

Here’s how Robert Pape concludes his substack (linked above):

Given that only 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day can be rerouted through alternative pipelines—far short of total flows—any serious attempt to neutralize Iran’s leverage would require not just maritime operations, but physical control over the territory from which that leverage is exercised.

That is not a limited intervention. It is the opening phase of a much larger war.

This is the core of the Escalation Trap.

A new form of power has emerged. It cannot be easily neutralized. It cannot be easily accepted.

And as recognition spreads—as it did, quietly but unmistakably, this morning—the pressure to resolve that contradiction will only grow.

The world is adjusting to Iran’s rise faster than policymakers are prepared to respond.

That gap is where the next phase of this conflict will unfold.

If this analysis is correct, the next 30 days will follow a predictable escalation pattern—one that will determine whether the United States accepts Iran’s rise or is pulled into a far larger war. I’ll be tracking those indicators in real time.

Let me put it my way. The rest of the world can adjust to Iran as a major world power center. But for the Anglo-Zionist Empire, this spells the end of its ambitions for global hegemony, for the subjugation of the Russo-Chinese and Eurasian world island. It means an America that is a regional power—major, perhaps, but not global and forced to live within its means, after climbing out of the economic hole it will find itself in.

Remember, this is another “bankers’ war”. Sean Foo discusses that angle this morning. Here are some excerpts:

If Trump continues this blockade, Iran’s going to escalate the pain even further. In a funny exchange, Iran just pointed out the big weakness in the US economic system.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

20h

BREAKING: Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf comments on “vibe trading digital oil” after Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz.

“Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper. Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down,” he says.

Ouch! Iran is clearly looking at the big picture.

Iran’s basically saying, ‘We have the real leverage here.’ The people price of treasuries and oil can collapse but the world still needs physical oil, which is dated Brent, and the longer the war continues the more US bonds will suffer. Even if oil prices comes down on paper the physical price is a whole other issue. Real prices will still soar higher and higher. But for US treasuries, it will collapse and stay down. This is dangerous because it reminds the world of two big things that US treasuries are backed by nothing but just faith and trust. But oil is needed.

That’s pretty basic—and inarguable. Unless the US military can not only decisively defeat Iran militarily but also somehow revive a totally destroyed Middle East energy sector. I wouldn’t want to bet on that combo. The result is that Iran holds the strategic advantage. Trump can try to mitigate the worst of the economic consequences for the rest of the world by capitulating right now, but the negatives are already baked in:

US inflation expectations are horrible and are rising.

The forecast for inflation in 2026 is over 4%. The OECD expects US inflation to hit 4.2% 2% and some estimates put the first digit at a five. Now, Scott Bessent is downplaying the true impact of higher energy prices on inflation. But even if the Iran war ends tomorrow, the impacts are still building--and we haven’t seen the worst just yet. March inflation came in at 3.3%. The rate of increase is just bonkers. We have gone 90 basis points higher from February’s print of 2.4%. The problem now is called inflation and that number is still 2.7%. If the Iran war drags on, if the blockade continues, or if Iran locks down Bab el Mandeb, we could see core inflation rise. That is the critical metric the Fed tracks and if it goes past 3% rate cuts could simply halt. Then Iran’s warning would really come true. The US Treasury market could in fact implode. And if the Fed loses the ability to cut rates, confidence in US debt would just evaporate.

Foo finishes up by discussing how this affects the real, the ultimate, target of the Anglo-Zionist war: China. Right now China is, of course, unhappy. So is Russia. But they now have every reason in the world—if they didn’t before—to strengthen their cooperation. Rationally, a US defeat is in the cards. That will include harm to the world economy, but BRICS will come out in a good position.

The world awaits Trump’s decision. For his part he dithers, protesting—far too much:

Trump also claims he is not under pressure to make a deal with Iran: ‘THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever’.

One might ask, if you’re not under any pressure, what’s up with the all caps stuff?

Morse Report @MorseReport

Apr 18

Top Democrat political consultant and campaign strategist, James Carville, just stated on the Left-wing ‘Policon’ podcast that when the Democrats regain power, they plan to:

-Grant statehood to Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, so that the Democrats can unlock 4 extra seats in the Senate.

-Pack the U.S. Supreme Court from 9 Justices up to 13 Justices, adding another 4 Left-wing Justices to the court.

-Reopen the U.S.-Mexico border and grant mass-amnesty to every single alien currently inside of the United States.

-His advice to Democrat politicians: “Don’t run on it. Don’t talk about it. Just do it.”

Is the War Powers Resolution just Congressional gaslighting?

The War Powers Resolution Is Not What You’ve Been Told

…

However, the War Powers Resolution consists of words that you can read for yourself, and here are some of them:

“The constitutional powers of the President as Commander-in-Chief to introduce United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, are exercised only pursuant to (1) a declaration of war, (2) specific statutory authorization, or (3) a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.”

1. There has been no declaration of war by the U.S. Congress since 1941.

2. There has been no authorization to attack Iran, nor to continue attacking Iran.

3. There has been no attack upon the United States or its territories or possessions, and there were no attacks on its armed forces until after said armed forces had begun the war.

The same law says that a president who launches a war in any of those three situations, then has 48 hours to submit his first report explaining himself, and 60 days after that report (62 days total — plus a possible extra 30) to entirely knock it off. But none of those three situations exists. So, the president must immediately knock it off — must, in fact, have never started the war. It is simply not true that the war will become illegal after 60 days; it has been illegal since the instant it was begun. It is factually false that it must be ended after 60 days in order to comply with the law; it must be ended immediately.

If the War Powers Resolution did not exist, one could revert to the actual Constitution that the War Powers Resolution claimed to uphold and which says that the decision to declare and wage a war is up to the Congress.

…

Money matters—especially because that’s what this war is all about. Maintaining Anglo-Zionist hegemony through the money power:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

UAE to Trump Administration: “You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY [Chinese yuan] and other currencies.”

-WSJ, just now

War:

Younis Tirawi | يونس @ytirawi

12h

Lebanon |

An Israeli soldier smashing the head of a Jesus Christ statue during operations in southern Lebanon.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

 Behind Trump’s confident public posture on the Iran war, the Wall Street Journal reports a president gripped by fear, distraction and no clear exit strategy.

No “clear” exit strategy? Is there even a fuzzy, unclear one?

When a U.S. jet was shot down over Iran on Good Friday, Trump screamed at aides for hours. Images of Jimmy Carter’s failed 1979 hostage rescue were haunting him. Aides kept him out of the Situation Room during the rescue operation because, a senior official said, his impatience wouldn’t be helpful.

Trump had told his team before the war that Iran would capitulate before closing the Strait of Hormuz, and that even if they tried, the U.S. military could handle it. He was wrong on both counts. He has since marveled at how easily it was shut down, telling aides: “A guy with a drone can shut it down.”

Notably, as early as late March, before the plane was even shot down, Trump had already ordered his negotiating team to find a way to start talks, according to the WSJ. The public threats and the private reality were moving in opposite directions.

In other words, trust the Iranian reports, not Trump. That’s exactly what Iran has said—that within 10 days Trump was begging to negotiate.

Iran as a second Venezuela? Anyone with half a brain new there was no valid comparison—at all. That points to an ego driven, impulsive gamble.

The war itself was partly Netanyahu’s sell. After a persuasive February briefing from the Israeli Prime Minister in the Situation Room, Trump said he trusted the military to pull it off, pointing to the swift U.S. operation in Venezuela as proof it could work. In Iran, he was shown clips every morning of explosions across Iranian terrain and remarked to advisers how impressive the military was, seemingly in awe of the scale of the bombs. But he had done little to sell the American public on the war, and soon grew frustrated that his administration wasn’t getting enough external praise.

Videos of big explosions? How naive is that? And no preparation of the public? This war was baked in from the outset of Trump 2.0. How can you not prepare the public? What was going on in the White House?

He resisted ordering the capture of Kharg Island, the launch point for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, telling aides the troops would be “sitting ducks.” His threat to destroy Iranian civilization was improvised, with no input from his national security team. His Easter morning post telling Iran to “Open the F***in’ Strait,” which included “Praise be to Allah,” was also unilateral. Afterwards he asked aides: “How’s it playing?”

My guess: Driven by utter frustration. He could see no way out and couldn’t get Iran to play along with his emotional needs. These were people who were serious about their country, their nation, their civilization. Trump was only serious about his brand.

The two-week ceasefire was announced less than 90 minutes before his own 12-hour ultimatum expired.

As the war dragged on and poll numbers dropped, top aides repeatedly urged Trump to stop giving impromptu media interviews, telling him his contradictory statements were only convincing the public he had no coherent strategy. Trump agreed briefly, then resumed. His chief of staff Susie Wiles pushed him to address the nation to reassure the public he had a plan. Trump resisted, asking what he would even say, admitting he couldn’t declare victory and didn’t know where the war was going. He was eventually persuaded, delivering the April 1st address. It didn’t move public opinion.

Which shows that he wasn’t actually delusional, in the true sense. And yet he did continually declare victory.

Meanwhile Trump held meetings about the White House ballroom he is building, attended midterm fundraisers hours after the war began, and at a donor reception mused aloud about awarding himself the Medal of Honor, citing as justification a scary landing in Iraq during his first term. His press secretary said he was joking.

“We are witnessing astonishing military successes?” So says a McCain goofball. Such as? Killing a handful of top officials, who are quickly replaced while the Iranian war effort doesn’t skip a beat?

“We are witnessing astonishing military successes that do not add up to victory,” said Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute, who served on George W. Bush’s National Security Council. “That is squarely on the president and how

Patty Marins sees Trump doubling down.

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

7h

President Trump Returns to the Offensive

He posted a video on his Truth Social platform a few hours ago in which he once again appears to be betting on a popular uprising inside Iran.

In other words, he’s doubling down on Jewish Nationalist fantasies of regime change. Wait, didn’t that just fail for the umpteenth time? How does the definition of insanity run? Exactly what is the hold that Jewish Nationalists have over Trump—and America?

Here’s a good question:

But if this uprising did not happen at the beginning of the war, why would it occur now, after more than 2,000 deaths, including more than 200 children?

There are already more than 10,000 people hospitalized in Iran due to the attacks.

There are already more than 3 million displaced people in Iran.

Who in their right mind, regardless of any local disagreements they might have, would support an enemy that is bombing their cities and killing their own people?

This is yet another misguided calculation, induced by Netanyahu, who erroneously promoted this idea.

That’s the question: Is this “misguided calculation” simply “induced by Netanayahu”, or is there more to this? Surely, after getting on to two months of recognized failure, Trump got some alternative views? What’s going on?

Quite the contrary: war has the power to highlight a common enemy and activate a survival instinct that fosters national unity and support for the country as a whole.

This move from Trump comes after the recent frictions between the IRGC, Ghalibaf, and Araghchi.

Trump’s statement further weakens the negotiating position of both Iranian officials.

There is an explicit and evident difficulty in properly understanding and operating within the correct temporal window of each action, that is, achieving accurate situational awareness of events while simultaneously developing a coherent and solid long-term strategy.

Yes!

Iran Consulate - Hyderabad @IraninHyderabad

8h

New Iranian oil shipment arrives in India despite blockade.

The Iranian supertanker Dorna, which was last seen in Iran just hours before the blockade, has now appeared on the AIS off the southern coast of India and is scheduled to deliver about two million barrels of crude oil to a refinery there, TankerTrackers said.

This is the third oil shipment that India has received from Iran in at least the past week, bringing the total amount of oil India has purchased from Iran to 6 million barrels, according to figures released so far.

Source: Fars News Agency

We take the bait! Even jump into the boat!

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: The US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. The report comes just hours after Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again

2. This move is intended to “step up economic pressure” on Iran to force them to reopen Hormuz

3. The US says its blockade “will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran”

4. Iran has been exporting over 2 million barrels of oil per day throughout the war which are now at risk

The Strait of Hormuz remains in contention.

So, step up economic pressure on Iran—and the rest of the world be damned? And this is Trump’s and the Anglo-Zionist path to victory? Who are the geniuses running this thing?

But wait a day. This, too, will probably pass:

RT @RT_com

15h

Trump lifts Russian oil sanctions ‘to control global prices’

2 days after Bessent said no lifting

A bit like King Canute, only with an oil tide. The reality is that Trump can’t really “control world prices”. He can force them higher—we know that because he’s done that. The real cost of oil, as opposed to the paper price, is well over $100/bbl. In Singapore it’s been over $200/bbl in recent days. Trump has done that, but he can’t force the price lower. And the US is part of the global market in energy. We will pay the price, too.

Earlier I listened to Larry Johnson and Robert Barnes, instigated by commenter dissonant1 (?). Barnes always puts on a good show, but one of the things he brought up that was of particular interest to me was the War Powers Resolution deadline of May 2. I’ve been arguing that this could be bridge too far for even our Jewish Nationalist funded “representatives”. Barnes agrees. In fact, he states that full war authorization is pretty much DOA. I don’t see any way to do island seizures in the remaining time. Presumably Trump has been shipping troops over there by the tens of thousands in order to pressure Congress into full war, but Congress is reading both the economic tea leaves as well as the polls. Dems and GOPers both are starting to realize they need to shut this down ASAP.

Of course, that leaves Trump with about ten days to launch another bombing campaign. But at what cost to the world economy—including the US economy? International energy experts are saying that as of right now we’re looking at two years to get oil output back up to pre-war levels. And that’s probably optimistic. Meanwhile, Iran is making absolutely no secret about their plans in the event Trump launches another bombing campaign—they’ll launch their own campaign against Gulf oil infrastructure.

Now, while the US has switched to become a net exporter of oil in recent years

we still import a lot of oil—57% from Canada, who is looking to diversify its market by selling to China. That’s not going to change. Destroying energy production in the Persian Gulf region—which more attacks will surely do, for years to come--will inevitably lead to much higher energy costs to the US because, as noted above, we’re part of a global energy market. Barnes claims that Energy Secretary Wright gets this. The question is, can he get this across to Trump?

These lies are patently designed to manipulate the markets.

For my own part, I’m beginning to wonder whether another aim of this narrative-under-construction is to set up an alternate narrative that will be used to wangle from Congress an authorization for war on Iran. That narrative would be based on all these false claims of negotiating success and would be used to claim that Iran went back on one of these false claims of concessions, or broke off negotiating at the last moment, so we have no choice but to [fill in the blanks].

Over the course of the day most of the rest of world came to pretty much the same conclusion, especially after the Iranian government denounced Trump’s lies. Speaking with Danny Davis, Professor Marandi, a member of the Iranian negotiating team in Islamabad and a former nuclear negotiator for Iran, explained Trump’s lies in the same terms as I did. Doug Macgregor argued forcefully that the new attack is probably timed for Monday, and Marandi pointed to the weather (beastly high temperatures coming shortly in the region) as a factor behind the military timing. Unusually, the US MSM reported on Iran’s official statements that Trump is lying.

Americans have, sadly, become inured to their governments lying us into wars and foreign adventures. However, this time may be different. The lies to justify the Anglo-Zionist Empires wars are always justified in high sounding terms—democracy, freedom—even while our government supports the lowest of low policies, including genocide and ethnic cleansing. John Mearsheimer estimates that these wars and other inhuman policies are responsible for 37 million deaths. The difference this time is that Americans have access to alternate and reliable sources of information. The Jewish Nationalist purchase of the MSM is unable to hide the facts, and the polling data confirms that the inhuman Anglo-Zionist policies in the Middle East are deeply despised by the great majority of Americans.

Whether these new public realities can somehow deter Trump’s regime—a wholly owned subsidiarity of the Jewish Supremacy Project—from a renewed war on Iran remains to be seen. What Americans are also seeing—in these days that show the deepest divide ever between Wall Street exuberance and American despair over their economic prospects—is that Trump’s lies are directed primarily at them. They are designed to keep Americans in the dark, while Trump administers the mushroom treatment. Americans are seeing that this is the most openly dishonest and corrupt regime in our history—with no prospect for anything better in a rigged political system.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

19h

Serious people know the fake US markets are fake. Close the GIGO markets. They are a scam.

.

Imagine being in the fake US markets. What are you even doing with your life? Central planners in the USSR had more dignity in terms of allocation efficiency.

Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem

 Saudi Finance Minister EXPOSES the oil price :

“You see $90 on the screen… good luck buying a barrel at that price.”

Real price? $120–$160/barrel.

The biggest gap between perception and reality in energy markets — ever.

Who’s controlling the narrative? 

Saying that Trump’s claims are “false” is the diplomatic way of putting it. Trump is not “delusional”, he’s not out of touch with reality—or not to the extent you might think. He lies to achieve his purposes. He lies with clear intent and he does it brazenly.

Clash Report @clashreport

BREAKING: Iran’s Ghalibaf:

The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false.

…

In the face of Trump’s lies, Iran was left with no choice but to shut down the Strait of Hormuz again. They couldn’t very well accept the lies that would put them in a false position.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

58m

BREAKING: Iran has not agreed to another round of talks with the US, citing US pressure tactics which include President Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and what it calls “unreasonable demands,” per Tasnim.

MAGA, one trade at a time. Who’s pocketing all the money?

Clash Report @clashreport

A trader (or group) made a huge ~$760 million bet that oil prices would drop just minutes before news broke that the Strait of Hormuz was reopening.

When the announcement came out, prices fell sharply (around 10–12%), meaning the position likely made a large profit.

The timing looks unusually precise, which is why it’s drawing attention.

Similar well-timed trades have happened around recent Iran-related announcements.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

4h

Why were X commentators able to call this ten hours ago but the media only calls it now? Oh it’s Saturday. Did the markets close?

Here’s a big part of what Trump and Congress don’t want us to know, but which can’t be hidden from those who want to know: hard times are baked in to our futures, thanks to the Anglo-Zionist war on the world.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

2h

Even if the Strait had been opened we are already deep into the supply disruption. Shortages are coming. No way back now.

Reuters @Reuters

Loss of energy output in MidEast will take about two years to recover, IEA says http://reut.rs/3QKivvi

Philip Pilkington @philippilk·

Dec 18, 2023

The Suez Canal is literally blocked, turning away ships and the oil price barely moves. Folks, I hate to inform you, but the oil market is currently completely fake.

Obviously there’s lots going on behind the scenes. Patarames points in what could be the right direction:

Patarames @Pataramesh

8h

[Trump] wanted a 45-Day ceasefire.

Iran, respecting Pakistan’s efforts, gave him 14 Days...

All his recent talk is to present this disaster as a Win to those who still believe him

Why did Trump want 45 days? One obvious answer is that 45 days would give the US military badly needed time to resupply, shore up logistics, do maintenance, move more resources around the globe. On the other hand, 45 days would also take Trump well past the War Powers Resolution’s 60 day deadline. All the looming disasters—military but also very much economic—could make this an extremely tough vote come May 2nd (I think that’s the official deadline). I don’t know exactly how this would work, but I do know that time is working against Trump. Is it possible that a 45 day peacefire would have made a 30 day extension of war by Trump more politically palatable?

The WPR provides for the automatic termination of the use of U.S. forces engaged in hostilities 60 days after the President has reported (or was required to report) on the use of force as described above unless Congress has declared war, statutorily authorized the use of force, enacted legislation extending this period of time, or is physically unable to meet due to an attack on the United States. The President may extend the use of force for an additional 30 days by certifying in writing to Congress a continued need due to "unavoidable military necessity."

The Dems have several times brought the war up for a vote—threatening termination of the 60 days before the deadline. The last vote passed the House by only one vote. According to Professor Pape and others, economic shortages—not just higher prices, but actual shortages—could begin to bite within ten days. If Trump could have pointed to a 45 day ceasefire that took him past May 2nd, would that have enabled a 30 day re-up of war in a political sense? Hard to say, but there must be maneuvering going on. Trump isn’t the only one in a box. Congress is also between a rock (Jewish Nationalist money) and a hard place (opposition of most Americans to the war). Past May 2nd there will probably be no hiding the economic effects, no matter what the markets do in response to Trump’s gaslighting.

Iran, smartly, gave Trump 14 days, putting him on the hot seat. Less time to resupply, less time for political gaslighting. But plenty of time to antagonize the rest of the world and anger and disgust Americans.

General Mike Flynn @GenFlynn

2h

War has become the norm. Peace requires explanation. Somewhere along the way, we stopped asking why.

And Trump continues selling out his base at a record pace:

Aaron Siri @AaronSiriSG

Trump’s pick to head the CDC, Erica Schwartz, would likely be a disaster.

Schwartz led nationwide Covid-19 vaccine deployment and her long track record of directly issuing rights-crushing civilian and military vaccine mandates, including mandating injection of smallpox, anthrax, and flu vaccines into U.S. Forces, and discipling those that refused, reflects she lacks the basic ethics and morals to lead the CDC.

This agency does not need another cheerleader for industry; it needs a regulator over industry.

Her prior promotion, let alone mandates, of nearly a dozen different vaccines leave little hope she will objectively oversee CDC’s vaccine program which has, between 1986 and the 2026, gone from 3 injections to 29 injections, including in utero, by an infant’s first birthday, while chronic childhood disease has gone from under 10% to over 40% of children, most related to immune system dysregulation.

I hope you noticed the weasel words: Israel won’t be bombing “Lebanon” but will “deal with the Hezboolah [sic] situation in an appropriate manner.” In other words, appropriate as determined by Israel.

These lies are patently designed to manipulate the markets.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi

3h

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

36m

Iran has not changed anything at Hormuz:

- Commercial traffic only with consent at Iran’s discretion

- All traffic entering or leaving follow routes in Iranian waters

- Fees must be paid for Iran’s provision of security

- No military vessels can pass

- Route limitations and traffic restrictions permanently “imposed on America”

You can safely ignore Trump.

Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem

2h

The IEA said it yesterday. Clearly.

Restoring a meaningful share of lost production will take up to two years.

Opening the strait ≠ restarting the wells.

Opening the strait ≠ rebuilding the pipelines.

Opening the strait ≠ fixing what got bombed.

For my own part, I’m beginning to wonder whether another aim of this narrative-under-construction is to set up an alternate narrative that will be used to wangle from Congress an authorization for war on Iran. That narrative would be based on all these false claims of negotiating success and would be used to claim that Iran went back on one of these false claims of concessions, or broke off negotiating at the last moment, so we have no choice but to [fill in the blanks].

Here’s the link to the article with a few excerpts:

Donald Trump and Scott Bessent Destroy Any Chance to Negotiate an End to the War with Iran

Let me give you the bottomline up front… Despite positive developments in expanding the ceasefire to include Lebanon and Hezbollah, the Trump administration announced new sanctions on Iran that will end any chance of negotiations with Iran. Unless Trump reverses course, the US is likely to renew its attacks on Iran and will exacerbate the international economic crisis that was ignited by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

…

Bessent stupidly believes the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the sanctions threat, will cause China to pause or stop buying Iranian oil. He stated that China “will no longer be able to obtain oil from Iran” under the new enforcement.

To make matters worse, Bessent announced that the Department of the Treasury is canceling sanctions waivers on Iranian (and Russian) oil, targeting Iran’s oil transportation infrastructure and elite smuggling networks (including the Shamkhani family), and working to freeze Iranian leadership funds held abroad. Gulf states are reportedly helping expose hidden Iranian accounts.

This perhaps explains a statement by Trump today in which he once again dissed NATO and explicitly thanked the Gulf States for their “help”.

... China is the primary target because it has been Iran’s biggest customer for discounted oil. Bessent framed the policy as a coordinated whole-of-government approach under President Trump to cut off Iran’s funding for terrorism and proxies.

Unless Bessent reverses himself in the next 24 hours there will be no further negotiations between Iran and the United States. China played a critical role behind the scenes in bringing the US and Iran to Islamabad last Saturday for the first round of negotiations. Bessent’s explicit threats against China has enraged the Chinese and solidified their belief that the US is not a reliable negotiating partner. Nope… We’re the enemy.

Any hope that the US could use China to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz is dashed. This lame, feeble attempt to bully China is backfiring as I write this. Chinese financial analyst, Sean Foo, is gobsmacked by the audacity of Bessent’s threats. China has received the message. Unless the US reverses course, there will be no meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump in China.

Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1

22h

The ceasefire may just be the calm before a massive storm. 

I have confirmed from two separate military sources that the U.S. is preparing for a “massive, huge, concentrated bombing campaign” the moment the current lull ends. Despite talks of a negotiated settlement, physical evidence shows we are “massing forces in the region” during the seventh week of this Iran war - and by all accounts, Iran is likewise playing this same game, building up and restocking its war machine for the next round.

Ground sources and aerial resupply data indicate “something really big is coming,” indicating the U.S. strategy is shifting toward major escalation in the hopes that a risk-it-all big strike can force Iran to do what the first six weeks of war didn’t: give up and give in to Trump’s demands.

Don’t be misled by the headlines, the buildup on the ground tells a much more urgent story, but here’s what you need to know: it won’t matter. A big surge of missile power will only blow up a lot of things on the surface in Iran, but it won’t be enough to coerce a population into submission. It will only add to the cost of our eventual strategic defeat.

My understanding is that this big escalation will be a combination of using up most or all of our JASSM-ER air launched missiles—the mainstay of the war on Iran thus far, so more of the same—along with Hegseth’s new Operation Economic Fury. That’s the blockade.

Regarding the massive use of JASSM-ERs thus far, concentrating on Iran’s underground “missile cities”, Patarames makes the point that those missile cities act as “firepower sponges”:

Patarames @Pataramesh

11h

Firepower sponge:

Iran’s Missile Cities drew a notable portion of - airpower it is able to project onto 

Number of Missile Cities x Number of entrances and the vast distances between each other means:

 To erode entrance areas assets like JASSM were necessary in quantities

Firepower that could otherwise have been used to cause much more damage to Iran

 A passive defense feature inherent to Iran’s Missile City concept

Patty Marins adds, regarding the ineffectiveness of our attacks on the missile cities:

Asymmetric Warfare and Iran’s Restored Capability

Satellite images show that Iran has already cleared the bunkers, silos, and launch pads at these sites in just over 48 hours after the ceasefire.

I believe this means they have quickly regained the ability to launch hundreds of missiles per day, at a moment when the coalition’s stock of interceptors is running low.

And this is a major problem for the coalition, because in the first 48 hours fo war alone, they launched more than 700 missiles and nearly 1,000 drones.

I know Netanyahu and Trump really wanted to win this war, but have they truly understood the kind of war they are fighting?

…

I would add that overhead surveillance revealed that Iran’s clearing operations proceeded even during the active war.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

JUST IN: Hegseth warns Iran if they don’t chose wisely, they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy

He also adds that U.S. will commence “Operation Economic Fury to maximize economic pressure across the entirety of the government.”

Here, in a sense, is the short answer to Operation Economic Fury: Blowback.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

1h

Shot: EUROPE HAS ‘MAYBE’ ***6 WKS OF JET FUEL LEFT,*** IEA HEAD SAYS: AP

Chaser: GULF, EUROPEAN OFFICIALS SEE ***US NEEDING 6 MONTHS FOR IRAN DEAL*** - Bloomberg

Or how about this—talk about pathetic, but this is what Trump has done to the world:

RT @RT_com

12h

100 MILLION liters of diesel secured — Albanese

Daily usage is 92 million liters

Saving Australia 1 day at a time

In other words, if Trump can’t end this fast—really fast—there goes the world economy. Trump maintains that the world should be thanking him for this massively destructive war, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that. I have argued that a recession or depression is already baked in, for the reason that this isn’t like the embargoes of the past. This shortage of energy has been accompanied by massive infrastructure destruction that can’t be fixed in weeks. That means that any return to anything approach a “normal” world order will be delayed for many months.

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is urging “US authorities” to get a plan in place for a potential US bond collapse. I have mixed feelings on that. I understand that a bond collapse would be very unpleasant for all of us—except maybe the wealthy, our rulers—but the idea of US authorities making big plans for the country doesn’t offer much comfort. Think COVID:

Why does DD himself say it won’t matter? Basically because it’s simply more of the same thing:

Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1

Apr 14

The American public is being kept in the dark about the true cost of the Iran war Col. Douglas Macgregor (@DougAMacgregor) pulls no punches in this frank breakdown, stating, “No one has told us the truth from the beginning of this operation until now.” While officials brag about having already defeated Iran, Macgregor warns that Iran is far from defeated, and more importantly, the current U.S. strategy is “counterproductive” if not outright “insane.”

Strategic failure is being masked by “accountant” spreadsheets of targets hit.

Macgregor compares the operation to a surgeon declaring victory while the patient dies on the table.

He claims the administration is avoiding the “humiliation of admitting that we’ve done all that we can do” and cannot defeat Iran militarily.

“We’ve never had a truthful picture of what we have and have not accomplished.”

This cycle of misinformation will not be able to mask the fraud of the narrative forever, as the truth will always manifest. The bigger risk, however, is that this deception carries a real risk of further escalation.

Donald Trump began exhibiting signs of early dementia in September 2025… He frequently confabulates, he routinely loses his temper and unleashes screaming rants, and he is incapable of doing critical thinking. According to Barnes, Trump’s senior White House staff are behaving like children with an abusive, drug-addled father… i.e., they walk on egg shells fearful of saying anything that might ignite Trump’s rage.

Trump genuinely believes that the US has vanquished Iran and he does not comprehend the massive economic damage that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is doing to the global economy. His declining mental state is dangerous because he is prone to make rash decisions based solely on his emotional state at the time.

JD Vance reportedly is working feverishly behind the scenes to arrange a new meeting with the Iranians in Islamabad. Iran is insisting that there must be a ceasefire between the Israelis and Hezbollah in Lebanon before another meeting with Vance. Late Wednesday night in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Security Council rejected the ceasefire and vowed to continue with its invasion of southern Lebanon.

I have to say that, based on what appear to be reliable reports regarding the way Vance conducted his role in Islamabad the last time, it’s difficult to imagine what positive role he can play—assuming he is so inclined, as Barnes maintains.

I’m on record, in the past, to the effect that Trump isn’t actually stupid, per se. He is, IMO, probably even above average in intelligence. The problematic behavior he has exhibited throughout his adult life is, rather, due to character flaws that have long been on open display—especially a strong narcissistic streak that leads him to regularly gamble on risky actions to bolster his grandiose ego needs. These problems probably also explain the astonishing degree to which Trump indulges in wildly inappropriate rhetoric and even openly lies. It’s gotten to the point that it’s now difficult to distinguish what Trump truly believes from his deliberate gaslighting.

I certainly agree that it’s entirely possible, even likely, that aged based mental changes are exacerbating these tendencies and character flaws and leading to repeated disastrous judgment calls. I continue to believe that, within normal limits, Trump understands that his actions have led to disastrous results. However, in line with his character flaws and age related decline in his ability to take corrective action—especially recognizing his own responsibility—his reaction is twofold. First, he seeks devious ways to avoid responsibility and to manipulate those who oppose him. This is entirely in line with his past. However, second, he now—to a degree that is exaggerated beyond his past behavior—lashes out inappropriately against all opposition in counterproductive ways. Thus we see unstable and wild swings of mood and emotional reactions, tempered at times by a return to his shrewder past. The trend is clearly downward, and especially because his narcissism has led him to surround himself to an unprecedented degree with conniving and incompetent ass kissers—people who are willing to feed his ego, but often for their own fanatical purposes. And Jewish Nationalists figure they’ve just bought Trump and the GOP—and lots more war and killing:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

14h

JUST IN: Israeli megadonor Miriam Adelson gives $40 million to Republican super PACs for midterm elections.

For these reasons I’m very pessimistic about any peaceful resolution to Trump’s war on Iran. I believe that Trump is still quite capable of understanding that any attempt at a TACO in this situation will fool no one. No walkaway is possible without a huge loss of US strategic depth, both in purely military terms (loss of bases, logistic hubs, etc.) as well as in financial and diplomatic influence. Trump has well and truly boxed himself in. A TACO move may be theoretically possible, but seems very unlikely in view of Trump’s character flaws, which manifest in his adamant refusal to acknowledge mistakes, or even responsibility for his decisions and actions. He continues to double down on disastrous mistakes, to the extent that corrective action to reverse the effects of those mistakes is now impossible in the real world.

That is especially true in the economic realm. I’ll close with a few examples:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

JUST IN: Hegseth warns Iran if they don’t chose wisely, they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy

He also adds that U.S. will commence “Operation Economic Fury to maximize economic pressure across the entirety of the government.”

Wall Street Memes @wallstmemes

Apr 15

When you close the Strait then open it again

Aaron Rupar @atrupar

Apr 15

BARTIROMO: Moving to domestic issues, what are your top priorities now for the economy for the rest of the year?

TRUMP: To be honest, we are doing so well. You look at this. I hit the 50,000 Dow mark!

PP:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

17h

Ecunumy gud. Stuck murket up. Anericu suxxesful.

Utter clownshow. Avoid at all cost. This whole thing is a mess and only losers are buying it at this stage.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

20h

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially hits a new record high, now up +11% since the March 30th low.

That’s +$6 TRILLION in market cap in 12 trading days.

Don Johnson @DonMiami3

11h

Fertilizer going vertical.

Maybe it matters, or we’ll just eat digital food. No inflation though.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

4h

Fertiliser prices soaring everywhere. Not clear which places are going to be hit with shortages but significant food inflation will hit everywhere just as hard, including the US.

The Spectator Index @spectatorindex

5h

Aluminium prices have hit a four-year high as Middle East deliveries continue to be disrupted.

Australia is being hit hard by diesel shortages. While consumers focus on the price of gasoline, diesel costs are rising higher on a percentage basis, fueling price inflation on everything in the world that is transported using diesel fuel.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

2h

BREAKING: Australia faces energy collapse, government may call for work from home

Australia is on the brink of entering the next stage of the government’s emergency fuel plan, an expert has warned, which could include widespread calls for Australians to work from home — Sky News

MINING.COM @mining

6h

The global sulphur squeeze has transitioned from a theoretical risk to a direct catalyst for a production cliff.

From Indonesian nickel to DRC copper, the leaching chemicals that power the green transition are hitting a wall.

Reuters reports that Indonesia’s nickel heavyweights— including Huayou Cobalt, Lygend, and Tsingshan —have already been forced to trim output by 10%.

Meanwhile, spot sulphur prices delivered to Indonesia have exploded above $800/t, with distressed cargoes clearing as high as $1,000/t.

…

So, with all this swell stuff going on, Trump is pivoting towards trying to muscle China. This is Trump’s rational side—recognizing the box he’s in—interacting with his character flawed side—lashing out irrationally rather than trying to back out:

Q. Anthony Ali

6h

Just a reminder that the last time Scott Bessent tried to make a financial play against the Chinese on behalf of Soros, Quantum Fund took a $2 billion loss

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN: Scott Bessent is once again threatening Chinese banks over Iran:

“Two Chinese banks received letters from the U.S. Treasury... If we can prove that there is Iranian money flowing through your accounts then we are willing to put on secondary sanctions.”

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

15h

Meh.

COVID closed off Chinese trade routes too.

Anyone remember how that worked out for the US (or Joe Biden in the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential elections)?

Erick Erickson

@EWErickson

·

19h

A case in point on media bias: Every Chinese trade route to the West is now controlled by the United States thanks to Donald Trump, and I bet this is the first you’re hearing of it.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

 BREAKING!!! Russia’s Defense Ministry released locations of EUROPEAN, ISRAELI, and TURKISH facilities tied to Ukrainian companies producing drones used for strikes against Russia.

Key points from the MoD statement:

• Several European countries, facing Ukrainian battlefield setbacks in late March, decided to scale up drone production and deliveries to Kiev.

• Expansion is being driven by increased funding for Ukrainian and joint ventures operating in Europe.

• Moscow views these moves as a deliberate step toward sharp military-political escalation.

• Using Europe-based production to support drone attacks on Russia risks unpredictable consequences.

• European governments are, in Moscow’s view, steadily drawing their countries deeper into the conflict.

• Some European states are becoming a de facto strategic rear for Ukraine.

• European publics should understand the security risks and be aware of the locations of these drone production sites.

LET’S GO!!!

This morning we saw Trump’s tweet about how Xi was going to give Trump a big hug:

It was always pretty obvious that this was intended to manipulate and pump up the markets and tamp down the paper price of oil. H/T to commenter Joe, the Chinese have flatly stated that Trump is lying—without actually using the name “Trump”. They refer euphemistically to Trump’s tweet as a “rumor”:

Guo Jiakun, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.

“I wish to put an end to rumors circulating online claiming that China has agreed with the United States not to provide arms to Iran. Let me be clear, no such communication has taken place.

China has neither admitted supplying arms to Iran nor denied it. Our security agreements and defense cooperation are sovereign matters for China alone to consider.

No foreign country has the right to meddle in China’s internal affairs. Leaders around the world should weigh their words carefully before speaking.

China welcomes the decision by President Trump toward de-escalation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. We remain committed to world peace and to safeguard regional stability through dialogue.”

This statement falls in line with reporting from the WSJ:

I’ve been listening to DD and Jim Jatras (whom I usually like): Hormuz Blockade Behind the Scenes /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jim Jatras. Jatras states re Islamabad: Both sides are going through the motions, he can’t see any rational basis for Trump to make a deal because Iran holds the cards.

Trita Parsi search. .. @tparsi

Why the Iran ceasefire may have shifted the dynamics back in Trump’s favor

Diplomacy between Washington and Tehran has not yet unraveled, despite JD Vance’s theatrical departure from last week’s talks in Islamabad. Trump now signals that the two sides could reconvene within days in the Pakistani capital. Whether negotiators return to the table or continue their exchanges through quieter, remote channels before the ceasefire lapses, one reality appears to have shifted: Trump has clawed back a measure of momentum—and with it, leverage—over Iran, largely by virtue of the ceasefire. Here’s why.

Trump entered this moment politically cornered and strategically constrained. Surging gasoline prices were inflicting acute domestic pain, eroding his standing at home. More critically, he faced a barren escalation ladder. Each conceivable move—strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, attacks on civilian targets, the seizure of Persian Gulf islands, or covert operations to capture enriched uranium—carried the near-certainty of forceful Iranian retaliation. Such responses would not merely match his escalation but compound it, deepening his economic exposure, amplifying political risk, and entangling him further in a perilous and unwinnable strategic bind.

Nor could he simply extricate the United States from the conflict on his own terms. Absent an understanding with Tehran, Iran retained both the capacity and the incentive to continue targeting Israel and vulnerable U.S. assets across the Gulf. Trump needed Iran’s permission to get out of the war.

The ceasefire, however, has subtly altered that equation. Trump may no longer need a formal nod from Tehran to step back. If he disengages now—without a comprehensive agreement—Iran will almost certainly maintain its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic setback for Washington. Yet Tehran is unlikely to resume direct military operations against U.S. targets in the Persian Gulf. To do so, in the absence of renewed American strikes, would cast Iran as the aggressor, inviting severe and potentially coordinated repercussions—not only from Washington but from wary global powers such as Russia and China.

The question, as I posed it earlier, is more complicated than that. Exactly what would “disengagement” actually look like? Reoccupying bases, rebuilding massive radars? That might be what the Anglo-Zionists are looking at with the movement of more military resources to the Middle East. None of Russia, China, or Iran would find that acceptable, because Trump has fully revealed his determination to dominate world energy. More likely, a real “disengagement” would leave Iran in complete control of the Persian Gulf, with a partnership of Iran, Iraq, and Oman emerging. But how can Trump realistically prevent that? Which raises the question, If TACO isn’t possible … then what?

Policy Tensor argues against Parsi:

Policy Tensor @policytensor

Utterly wrong.

Trita’s entire argument rests on a single misconception: that the US can afford to walk away leaving the gulf under Iranian control. It cannot. Walking away without tying Iranian hands means that:

— the gulf becomes an Iranian lake and Iran will reign as the hegemonic power of the region;

— they will impose an effective tollbooth and everyone will just have to suck it up and pay bc if the US cannot retake Hormuz, no one else can;

— all the GCC states, including the Saudis will have to bandwagon with Iran and align their foreign policies accordingly, including ending US bases;

— all the European and Asian states that depend on gulf energy will be coerced into following foreign policies accommodative of Iran;

— Iran would therefore emerge as the world’s oil hegemon;

— deterrence in Asia would collapse, for if the US can be kicked out of the gulf then it can certainly kicked out of Asia in short order.

This is just not an option. And that is why the Iranians have the upper hand and why the US must secure a deal that ties Iranian hands, which in turn will require it to tie its own hands.

An Islamabad Accord in the only scenario in which the US can avoid military disaster and utter humiliation. That is why it is going to happen.

The question remains: What would an Islamabad Accord look like? While pondering that, Policy Tensor has a long and interesting post that emphasizes the importance of the base issue:

By the time the next president is sworn in, the American empire will be gone.…

By empire, I mean the US military position in the Old World, not the invulnerable position that the US enjoys in the western hemisphere. This does not mean that all US bases out there will be closed. What I am saying is that the US response function and force posture that gives them teeth will be gone. The US will no longer be in the business of trying to control political outcomes through the use of force or the threat thereof outside the western hemisphere.

…

The upshot is that base vulnerability proved to be a much more serious problem than the US military had reckoned. The trillion dollar question is what does this imply about the vulnerability of US bases in Asia. This is a question of paramount importance. For if US bases in Asia can survive under Chinese fire, then one could still hope to deter China; if not, deterrence in Asia is gone. This is what I meant to suggest in my brief response to @stephenwertheim today.

It is really important to understand why base vulnerability is the forcing variable for the viability of deterrence in Asia. The reason has to do with the hard fact that the US cannot even prosecute a war without functioning bases in the region. The surface fleet is just not survivable anywhere within the Second Island Chain, so the US must rely on undersea assets and air power to fight China. But attack submarines must return to naval bases for reloading and retrofitting, and warplanes must return to air bases. Both are fully exposed to Chinese missiles. The US military intelligentsia calls this the end of sanctuary era.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

14h

BREAKING! THE WAR ON IRAN IS OVER (according to Trump)

“I said to him, Mr President, you keep talking about the war like, was was, was?

I said, is it over? He said, it’s over, over.”

.

Maria: “Is this war over?”

Trump: “I think it’s close to over, yeah.”

He’s following that up with this tweet—which his financial base in the markets will love:

Of course, that’s not exactly what’s going on. China has denied ever having sent weapons to Iran. That might be completely true, or it might be somewhat true. Completely true in the sense of country to country transfers, but maybe only somewhat in the sense of workarounds to direct transfers through third parties.

What is clearly true is that China has provided Iran with something that, in the big picture, is probably far more valuable—real time intel for targeting US assets, including ships and air assets and base utilization. Again, that might be done directly but is more likely done through third party Chinese companies. In that regard, note that Trump talks ONLY of weapons—not of intel. And note also that Xi appears to have chosen his words very carefully:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

2h

Trump: “I wrote a letter to Xi. I asked him not to give Iran weapons. He wrote me a letter, and he is saying that he is essentially not doing that.” - Trump

“Essentially” not sending weapons to Iran makes it sound like China is “kinda sorta” doing exactly that. Probably as speculated above. Or maybe something like the oil shipments. China says they have contracts and agreements with Iran re oil and they’ll fulfill them and nobody better interfere. Same probably goes for weapons. They’ll fulfill existing contracts and agreements. And, hugely, no mention of the crucial issue of intel.

The bottom line here is that when Trump says the war is “close to over”, well, “close” is a very relative term. And it’s relative not only to Trump but also to Iran. As—or more—important, it’s also relative to the intentions of Jewish Nationalists. The chief of Mossad stated yesterday that regime change remains the Jewish Nationalist plan for Iran—no doubt to be followed by Balkanization and chaos. Does Trump get a say in that? Patty Marins put out an amusing tweet in this regard—perhaps tongue in cheek?

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

Netanyahu impresses me a lot.

What kind of power is this that can shatter Trump’s popularity and still continue to call the shots?

What kind of symbiosis has been created that not even the threat of defeat in both chambers can stop?

The White House is swimming against the internal and global current, and even so, it refuses to reassess its course.

And she followed that up with this tweet, replying to her own first tweet (above). Who are those “well-informed people?” I think it’s her commenters:

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

Apr 13

This kind of post teaches me a lot. There are many well-informed people, but what about the people around you?

Do you feel that they understand what’s really going on?

The answer, of course, is that Netanyahu isn’t really the power here.

Following up on yesterday, here is Lavrov’s typically careful—not to say, coy—account of his discussions with China’s FM Wang Yi:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

Russia can make up for the energy resource deficit of China and other interested countries, which arose against the backdrop of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Lavrov said during his visit to China.

Other statements by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry:

• Putin’s visit to China will take place in the first half of 2026.

• Lavrov reported that he discussed the aggravation of the situation in the world due to the actions of the West, the situation in the Middle East, the militarization of the EU, and the crisis in NATO.

• The US and Iran should promote realistic goals in the negotiations, and Russia and China are ready to promote any formats of their external support.

• Moscow will accept any decision by Iran on enriched uranium and is ready to play a role in resolving this issue.

• Relations between Russia and the US are not at a “freezing point”, contacts are being conducted, but not all of them are being reported on.

• At the negotiations on Ukraine in Alaska, the discussion focused on recognizing the de jure realities on the ground, and Moscow remains committed to the agreements reached at the summit.

• US sanctions against Russia remain in place, as does the discrimination of Russian energy companies in the market.

• The West is plotting a new military bloc, in which Ukraine is a leading participant.

• Macron is reveling [sic] in the idea of creating “stabilization forces” in Ukraine.

I suspect that the last weirdly translated point actually means that Russia is “relishing” the prospect of taking out any EU “stabilization forces” that might be inserted into Ukraine. My read on this is that Russia and China remain united in support of Iran and of Iran’s stated positions on all important issues—including enrichment.

That looks like support for Iran going into Thursday—if the Thursday talks actually occur. But that leaves unspoken what might occur if the US once again presents Iran with unacceptable demands. I’m quite sure that Lavrov and Wang discussed the war going forward, and will have communicated their views to Iran. You can be 100% sure that Russia and China find the US position on blockades and asset seizures …

Megatron @Megatron_ron

48m

NEW: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says they are pressuring banks all over the world to seize Iranian funds:

“We are partnering with our Gulf allies. They are much more willing to share the bank accounts of members of the Iranian regime.

We are reaching out to banks, including Chinese banks.

Any Iranian goods purchases are forbidden.”

… utterly unacceptable. China has already stated, re the blockade, that China will not accept interference in its external relations.

The bottom line remains: Trump is continuing to gaslight Americans, mostly to try to get them to ignore the looming economic disaster. I believe Americans are smarter than that. Look for war to continue.