If you were wondering, Xi is reported to be 5’11”.

As far as I can tell there was no earth shaking news that came out of the meeting and Cheng’s later press conference—the news was the meeting itself. While the DPP holds the Taiwan presidency, the KMT is the single largest party on Taiwan. Judging from the various statements the meeting was very cordial and cemented the KMT’s commitment to much better relations with the PRC. The timing is significant. The invitation to Cheng was issued after the outbreak of the Anglo-Zionist sneak attack on Iran, which has left Taiwan desperate for sources of energy and other elements (especially helium) to keep its chip manufacturing industry functioning—Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s chips. China is in a position to aid Taiwan if needed, and that is probably only a matter of time. The US has been forced to strip munitions from its Asian bases. Taiwan will need to find new ways of framing relations with China, and this meeting is probably a start.

Now check this out:

Jackson Hinkle @jacksonhinklle

2h

 BREAKING: Bank executives are scrambling behind the scenes to RELEASE $7 BILLION of frozen Iranian funds held by South Korea in Qatari banks

The frozen assets are a result of U.S. financial sanctions, and Iran wants them released immediately

South Korea says will release $7 billion in frozen Iranian assets after ‘consultations’ with US

Tehran has been pressuring Seoul to unblock the assets held in two South Korean banks due to US sanctions

Iranian assets worth an estimated $7 billion locked in South Korea will shortly be released following consultations with the United States, after Tehran announced Monday that it has reached a deal with Seoul over how to transfer the funds, reported the Korea Times.

This will undoubtedly also advance Chinese - Korean relations. In fact, one suspects that China may have had a hand in this, as a quid pro quo for persuading Iran to provide Trump with a temporary reprieve from the consequences of his idiot rhetoric—China’s help in exchange for release of sanctioned assets. If so, it’s one more example of how China is all-in when it comes to supporting Iran. My bet is that this is another signal that the dynamics of world geopolitics are shifting, and that there will be no going back. The draw-down of US bases in Korea will have its effect.

Shifting to the “ceasefire”—or whatever it is that’s going on—we learn more about the background. It should come as no surprise that Trump, having foolishly started a war that has driven the global economy into a ditch, should have quickly started looking for an exit.

Amerikanets @ripplebrain

16h

Key details from the FT piece published earlier today:

• The Trump admin has been seeking a ceasefire for “weeks” - at least since March 21st - when Trump first threatened to destroy Iranian power plants

• Trump has been “worried” about oil prices and was “surprised” by Iranian resilience

• Admin officials believed Iran would be more likely to accept a ceasefire if it were delivered by a Muslim-majority country, and enlisted Pakistan for this

• Ceasefire periods between two weeks and 45 days were floated

• The Iranians were willing to budge on limiting their uranium stockpile

• Araghchi and other Iranian officials involved in the negotiations had issues getting the IRGC onboard. Some elements of the IRGC were strongly opposed to any agreement

• At least one senior IRGC official would be included in the Iranian negotiating team

But there are powerful forces in US politics that are strongly opposed to a TACO. Of course, Jewish Nationalists are—and this could split the Dems to some extent:

Aaron Maté @aaronjmate

Apr 8

Trump decided to make a disastrous, Israel First war on Iran the defining issue of his presidency. Have Democrats considered whether an Israel Firster who voted against Obama’s Iran nuclear deal is a suitable opposition leader at this pivotal moment?

Quote

CSPAN @cspan

Apr 8

.@SenSchumer: “Iran still has its nuclear stockpile. Its nuclear ambitions are still unchecked, if not accelerated…The nations at the world are furious at Trump: the Asians, the Europeans, even the Middle Eastern allies.”

That speaks volumes regarding the stranglehold—I think that’s the mot juste—that Jewish Nationalists have over US foreign policy.

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

2h

The issue of Israeli influence in U.S. politics is not limited to President Trump.

Israel has successfully embedded itself within the American political structure, gaining dominant persuasive power and influencing a large share of campaign financing through an extensive lobbying network. This is much broader than mere phone calls or Netanyahu’s influence over Trump.

I would say this has become a persistent and bipartisan reality, one that may endure far longer than many anticipate.

But they have powerful allies in the energy industry on this issue:

Trump and the Myth of American Oil Independence

The president says the U.S. can walk away from the Strait of Hormuz. The global market says otherwise.

According to this article, oil execs are pleading with Trump to break Iran’s control over Hormuz—world economy be damned. Think about how much money is tied up in this, and there’s no mystery at all. Lives of military personnel, drain on military resources, hardship for Americans—none of that is part of the oil execs’ considerations. This has been going on since well before the Second World War. Don’t kid yourself—this is not about the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. This is about US oil execs getting their cut.

Trump can’t keep all these people happy, as well as Americans. Did he give this any thought before his goofy decision?

Here’s another Politico article that’s on point:

The Middle East war depleted US weapons. Rebuilding will require China’s cooperation.

Beijing has a stranglehold on the critical minerals the U.S. needs to rebuild its weapons cache following five weeks of war.

The Middle East war has depleted a key part of the United States’ missile defense system in the region. To rebuild, the U.S. needs to go through China.

In just over a month of war, Iran has targeted several U.S. radar units spread across the region, cutting-edge defensive weapons that are used to detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones. Military experts believe many have been damaged, if not destroyed. A key component of those interceptors is gallium, a critical mineral that is also used in other high-tech products like semiconductors.

China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. And it has already proven willing to limit access. Increased U.S. demand for the metal to rebuild its interceptors — a process that will take years — only strengthens Beijing’s hand in the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

“Broadly does it make us more vulnerable? Yes, I think so,” said Mikhail Zeldovich, an investor focused on critical minerals. “I don’t think there’s any doubt there.”

Already, prices for gallium have increased by 32 percent in the past month, after months of lower prices following an Oct. 30 agreement between the U.S. and China. The negotiations were sparked in part by China’s near total control over the processing of critical minerals, including gallium, leverage the country used to cut off supply and force the U.S. to the negotiating table.

If the demand for critical minerals increases as the U.S. attempts to restock its weapons cache, it would only strengthen China’s hand.

Who in our government seriously considered this before the decision to attack Iran?

Trump, of course, is trying to please the war party—he’s just not mentioning the gallium:

Patarames and other rational people think Iran does actually have some cards—Aces and face cards, at that:

Patarames @Pataramesh

1h

President of the US, an old man, spending his time to watch Mark Levin on Foxnews...

Iran’s cards:

•  Controlling global Oil price via Strait of Hormuz, with no -means to stop it

•  Suppressing normal life & economic activity in Israel, steadily & persistent

•  Holding U.S. Persian Gulf Arab -allies industries at permanent, persistent risk

•  Steadily & constantly dismantling U.S. bases in the region and destruction of the assets they house

Final & most important  :

• Having offensive capability, firepower that is constant in quantity and can’t be effectively degraded by the means available to the U.S.

 In short, the capability to respond at scale

Finally, Patty Marins is puzzled by Netanyahu’s megalomania. She has apparently never heard of the Anglo-Zionist Empire:

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

One of the things that caught my attention in this conflict was Netanyahu’s speech claiming that the war was not only turning Israel into a regional power, but into a superpower.

I have great respect for Israel’s military capabilities in all its past wars.

However, Netanyahu is megalomaniacal. How can one speak of a “superpower” that depends on external aid?

From 2023 up to the present moment in 2026, approximately $25 to $30 billion in American military assistance for arms purchases has flowed into Israeli coffers.

Israel certainly has its merits. It has always strived to develop its own technology and has done so quite competently, often through reverse engineering of Soviet and French equipment.

I agree that Israel can be considered the regional nuclear power.

But when we broaden the scope, it becomes clear that the two military powers in the region with genuine capacity for large-scale development, innovation, and production are Iran and Turkey. Still, Israel’s defense industry continues to be impressive.

Israel possesses a high-tech defense industry, but it lacks the economic scale needed to project sustained power and the demographic size required for significant military volume.

In the 12 days of war, Israel was already running low on interceptors by around the tenth day.

This situation was very similar to what would have happened in the conflict with Iran if several additional U.S. Patriot batteries had not been deployed in the Gulf and Jordan to help protect Israel, along with the air defense systems of the Carrier Strike Group stationed off Israel’s coast, which also carried out multiple interceptions.

In war, demographic, economic size and military volume are crucial factors, and they will always constrain Israel, even with its advanced industry.

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

15h

President Trump didn’t realize that Iran only gave up on receiving war compensation because this fee is supposed to pay for the reconstruction, and that was made very clear in the draft of the agreement.

Or did I get the wrong version too?

Gotta luv this, from the sneak attack artist, talking about “honor”?

Here’s a dose of reality. This probably cuts what remained of Saudi output by nearly 20%:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING: Officially the last oil route from the Middle East has been stopped. Iran bombed it hours before the ceasefire

Saudi Energy: We lost 700,000 barrels of oil per day due to the targeting of the East-West pipeline, which is currently the main route for supplying the world’s markets with crude oil.

Saudi Arabia says attacks cut oil output and East-West Pipeline flow

CAIRO, April 9 (Reuters) - Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom’s oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per ​day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source ‌at the Ministry of Energy.

…

“The East-West pipe is diverting so ⁠much of the Saudi crude not able to leave via the Strait of Hormuz,” said Kpler analyst Matt Smith. “Any pullback on volume is going to add to ​the tight situation. It is not great news for markets.”

The two-week ceasefire announced this week appeared tenuous at best, with Israel continuing its attacks on Lebanon and ​Iran showing few signs that it was lifting its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for nearly a fifth of global energy supplies.

With the strait blocked, the East-West Pipeline has been Saudi Arabia’s only crude export route. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Iran attacked the pipeline just hours after the ceasefire was agreed upon.

Clear message that Iran remains very serious. Bad news for world energy flows, more pressure on Trump. Control over world energy trumps bombs bouncing off mountains.

Expect to hear lots more of this (below). As Max Blumenthal and Doug Macgregor argue, Dems and GOP are both looking at this from a political standpoint. Chris Murphy (D) was a critic of the war until Trump lost it, then Murphy called Trump weak. GOPers, of course, leaking that, oh yeah, we were always against it, we told Trump it was a bad idea. All very unimpressive for a once great nation. Still, Kerry is certainly speaking the truth this time:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

4h

 John Kerry:

“I was part of the any number of conversations with Netanyahu.

[Pitching the US strike Iran?]

Yes, he wanted us to strike. He came to president Obama. He made a presentation to ask to strike. President Obama refused. President Biden refused. President Bush refused. The only president who has agreed to this, obviously, is President Trump

More pressure on Trump/Chump. Anyone who thinks China or Russia is about to undercut Iran needs to reconsider that:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

2h

BREAKING: The Iranian delegation still hasn’t arrived in Islamabad; the first round of negotiations was supposed to take place today

They already announced that if Israel doesn’t stop the attacks on Lebanon there will be no negotiations

Iran enforcing ceasefire, not tolerating violations. And we were told Iran had no air defense left:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

The cost of the MQ-4C Triton that was potentially taken/shot down earlier [over Hormuz] exceed $200 million, and potentially go as high as $618 million per unit for the newest versions.

+ that would be a first. Flying at high altitude this UAV is usuallly spared from getting targeted.

“Potentially taken/shot down”. What that means is, potentially hijacked electronically and brought to a landing in Iran. Iran has done that to US drones in the past.

In duh! news:

Breaking news: Inflation surges as effects of Iran war show in prices

U.S. inflation surged in March as the energy shock stemming from the war in Iran rippled across the economy.

The Consumer Price Index report showed that inflation jumped to 3.3 percent compared to the same time last year, almost a full percentage point increase from February’s annual pace. Overall prices rose 0.9 percent over the course of March, the highest monthly gain since the peak of the post-pandemic inflation crisis in June 2022.

.

Within energy, it’s worth noting that while gasoline was up 21.2 percent, fuel oil has increased even faster, by 30.7 percent over the month. That hits households in the Northeast, which are more commonly heated with oil. Other motor fuels, which mostly includes diesel, jumped 30.8 percent.

.

S&P 500 Futures moved slightly higher on Friday morning. Broad market index-linked futures climbed 0.1 percent, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2 percent. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were unchanged.

Because markets are a measure of how good life is for Americans.

.

If you are noticing that your morning cup of coffee seems more expensive, it’s not your imagination. Coffee prices are up 18.7 percent over the year, and 1.3 percent in March. That price spike is due to a number of factors, including tariffs and extreme weather that has hurt the global supply of beans.

And this:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

23h

There goes the economy. Ceasefire unlikely. Inflation very likely. Higher interest rates. AI bubble blows. Stagflationary recession. Then the world pulls out of USD and we see living standards crack? Decent chance.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: US GDP growth falls from 4.4% to 0.5% in Q4 2025, well below the initially expected +2.8% growth.

Also in the news, Americans are flooding onto social media to thank Trump and his Jewish Nationalist controllers for all this. And wait till transport costs reflect those increases in the cost of, well, just about everything. Americans will be doing cartwheels to express their gratitude to Trump and the GOP.

Weird.

Weirder.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

1h

RT @BlisterPearl: Mar-a-Lago is the most mentioned location in the Epstein files, not the island, not the apartment, not the Lolita Express.

Interesting military analysis. I heard some analysts on Youtube yesterday pointing out that Israel has been pounding mountain redoubts in Iran, to no effect—the missile launches remain unabated:

Patarames @Pataramesh

Apr 9

Let me tell it as it is:

Any notion of the U.S. projecting heavy firepower with their strategic bombers, the B-1 & B-2, on strategic Iranian targets is highly questionable

 They have not been used on 1 of Iran’s Top-10 missile cities (Shiraz-South)

If they had been, damage would be well visible.

 Instead the base remains fully operational after ~40 Days War.

To make it clear:

No ‘mass’ GBU-72 bunker-buster B-1 raid, nor B-2 GBU-57 MOP raids would have any chance to harm the Missile/Drone arsenal there.

 But the entrances could have been heavily mauled, significantly reducing launch-rate.

Operational freedom over Iran, by assets like the B-2 remain highly questionable due to this finding!

Seen in this light, Chinese pressure on Iran to participate in Trump’s charade is a bit puzzling. I assume that this represents the Chinese concern for optics—to show to the world that their cause is righteous. We’ve seen that Chinese concern play out with regard to Russia although, again, the situation is somewhat different—Iran is clearly the object of massive Anglo-Zionist aggression. At the same time, this is probably a sign of BRICS confidence.

On Trump’s side, we’ve seen the reports that the US is currently stripping its Asian bases of standoff precision missiles. However, I continue to suspect that the ceasefire theater was precipitated by an internal crisis, probably twofold in nature. The crisis is a crisis of leadership amid growing doubts regarding Trump’s ability to lead and in the context of a severe lack of public support for the Anglo-Zionist war—including a continuing collapse in support for or even in sympathy for the Zionist Entity itself. Here’s how I see this crisis unfolding.

First came Trump’s insistence on a boots on the ground raid to snatch a major portion of Iran’s enriched uranium. Had that raid been successful, it might have fueled hope in the typically Anglo-Zionist fantasy of an internal Iranian regime change, based on lost confidence in the regime’s competence. At the least, it might have allowed for a pause to prepare for the bigger push for complete subjugation and fracturing of Iran. The raid failed in fairly spectacular fashion, requiring a massive coverup of losses—including human casualties—which placed the US military on difficult political grounds.

Second came Trump’s inability to conceal his rage at the shambolic failure and Iran’s refusal to submit, which led to his vulgar, profanity laced “civilization ending” social media tirades over the weekend. In my speculation, a line in the establishment must have been drawn. The reset required not only a pause to retool militarily but also politically. Thus the ceasefire theater. The desperation for a ceasefire—before Iran could call Trump’s deadline bluff—was so serious that the US was forced to accept Iran’s maximalist position. That, of course, has been discarded amid a blizzard of lies. But the truth is out:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

3h

 CONFIRMED! The White House reviewed and approved a social media post by Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, which explicitly stated that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement.

However, after Israel bombed Lebanon, the Trump administration backtracked, claiming that Lebanon had not been included in the deal.

That rush to extricate Anglo-Zionism from Trump’s rhetorical excesses has led to another black eye for the Zionist Entity—which launched its Freudian Operation Eternal Darkness on Lebanese civilians—but it achieved the purpose of deflecting attention from Trump’s TACO.

The major problem facing Anglo-Zionist Central is that a mere military munitions resupply—dangerous in itself because the stripping of America’s Asian bases enhances China’s hand—is far from guaranteed to succeed. Iran publicly flexed its strong hand by revealing the numbers of its missile and drone arsenal, and the Anglo-Zionists are painfully aware that their military effort has failed. Is it time for another roll of the dice?

Trump has renewed his efforts to arm twist the NATO countries into what looks like a suicidal attempt at a blunt force reopening of Hormuz.

Pressure leads to understanding? !!!

Again, this is a sign of desperation, but we’re seeing it being pushed forward yet again. It would be ludicrous on its face—why would NATO countries commit this absurd form of suicide? We’ve seen them breaking ranks out of sheer panic for economic survival—but for the financial leverage that the Anglo-Zionist still possesses. But it looks like that fading leverage may not be up to the task at hand. The NATO countries appear to be playing a delaying game, a diplomatic form of the old rope-a-dope strategy—appearing to agree while setting up conditions that are road blocks:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

The US is ramping up pressure on European allies to take a military role in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Der Spiegel, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has informed European capitals that Trump expects concrete commitments within days—such as sending warships or other military assets. General political statements are no longer considered sufficient.

European diplomats say Trump’s demand amounts to an ultimatum following his meeting with Rutte. Germany has indicated general willingness to join a mission, but only under conditions such as a UN mandate and either a lasting ceasefire or a negotiated truce.

Beyond Hormuz, Trump is also reportedly pressuring NATO allies with threats. US media say he is compiling a list of European countries that supported or opposed him in his war on Iran, with possible US troop withdrawals from “uncooperative” allies. Spain is mentioned as a key case after refusing overflight rights for US military aircraft.

Germany, meanwhile, has placed no restrictions on US bases, but Trump is said to view Berlin as unsupportive because of political messaging describing the conflict as “not our war”—a quote attributed to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, though it was reportedly misattributed in Washington to Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

In the meantime, while awaiting developments, we see the pivot to more blustering in this curious social media post. I say curious, because to my eye this reads like a Hegseth production rather than a Trump one. See what you think:

Could this be a sign that Trump is being restricted, at least for the time? There are a few Trumpian flourishes, such as—”bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before”—but even those fail to capture the essential BS.

In the meantime, while awaiting a return to full scale military action, Iran has restricted Hormuz traffic. And that’s the real name of the game.

But now another factor may be involved, which could play out in the form of political pressure: Leo appears to be intent on traveling to Lebanon. Murdering a pope would have to rank as the ultimate Anglo-Zionist fantasy—even more alluring than murdering an ayatollah.

This story was reported by the Free Press, but here’s Newsweek reporting on it:

JD Vance Reacts to Report US Official Issued Threat to Vatican Ambassador

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday he would look into reports that senior Pentagon officials lectured the Vatican‘s ambassador, leading to the cancellation of a planned visit by Pope Leo XIV.

Vance, speaking in Hungary, was asked about reports first shared by The Free Press that claimed Cardinal Christophe Pierre was told in January that the Vatican and the Catholic Church should get on board with the Trump administration’s military tactics.

“I would actually like to talk to Cardinal Cristophe Pierre and, frankly, to our people, to figure out what actually happened,” Vance said. “I think it’s always a bad idea to offer an opinion on stories that are unconfirmed and uncorroborated, so I’m not going to do that.”

Newsweek reached out to the Vatican for comment via email on Wednesday afternoon.

A spokesperson for the Department of Defense told Newsweek that the Free Press’ characterization of the meeting was “highly exaggerated and distorted”.

“The meeting between Pentagon and Vatican officials was a respectful and reasonable discussion,” the spokesperson said. “We have nothing but the highest regard and welcome continued dialogue with the Holy See.”

According to the report, also backed up by independent reporter Christopher Hale, who writes the Letters from Leo Substack, a closed-door meeting between Vatican and Pentagon officials took place in January.

U.S. officials were reported to have lectured the Catholic Church representatives, with one official reaching for a 14th century weapon and invoking the Avignon Papacy—a period of time when the French monarchy used military force to bend the Bishop of Rome to its wishes.

“America has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world,” Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby and his colleagues told the cardinal, per the FP. “The Catholic Church had better take its side.”

Vatican officials were reportedly so shocked that this caused a planned visit by the first American pope to be canceled.

…

So, in other words, the Pentagon admits that it really did meet with the Vatican’s ambassador. I’m guessing that the Vatican is unhappy about Trump’s bully boy attitude toward Latin America, while the White House is unhappy with Leo’s moral critique of Yanqui imperialism. So you can also assume that, at a minimum, there was a difference of opinion at the meeting—with the Pentagon, via “Bridge” Colby, telling the Vatican to mind its own business and keep its views on moral matters of war and peace to itself. Here are the opening paragraphs of the Free Press article:

On Easter Sunday, Leo XIV urged world leaders to lay down weapons and choose peace—to drop the “desire to dominate others.” It was the culmination of a rhetorical escalation against the Iran war that grew in intensity over Holy Week, when he condemned “the imperialist occupation of the world” and warned that God rejects the prayers “of those who wage war.”

It’s hard not to see these remarks as aimed directly at the leader of the free world and the Christians in his inner circle. President Donald Trump has not directly addressed the Pope’s comments, but behind closed doors, tensions have been building for months—culminating in January, when senior U.S. defense officials summoned a top Vatican diplomat to the Pentagon. What happened inside that room set the tone for everything that followed: Vatican officials briefed on the meeting, who spoke with The Free Press on the condition of anonymity, described it as a bitter lecture warning that the United States has the military power to do whatever it wants—and that the Church had better take its side.

One might wonder why a government that has no apparent qualms about bombing foreign countries and capturing or killing tyrants would bother trying to court—or demand—the Vatican’s favor. The answer lies in something easy to overlook: The Catholic Church is perhaps the only remaining global institution perceived to carry genuine moral authority. The Holy See, for all its imperfections and scandals, remains a body whose credibility the American superpower seeks. They know that Leo’s blessing, or at least his silence, would confer a kind of moral legitimacy that no amount of power can manufacture on its own.

…

Given that this meeting is said to have taken place in January and is only now being leaked to the press by the Vatican, one gets the impression that the intent was to—if not exactly mobilize—prod American Catholic opinion in a certain direction. Exactly what Trump and the GOP don’t need at this point. Well, they asked for it.

Edward Dowd @DowdEdward

52m

Master class in the art of winning folks to your side…not!

Trump’s ceasefire gambit looks like its gone awry, which is bad news for the world economy. Here are some comments in that regard.

Edward Dowd @DowdEdward

3h

The consensus is that as of today the Strait is still effectively closed. It’s day 39 of closure. Time closed is the enemy for the global economy. The strait needs to open soon and even then extensive supply will still be offline.

During last year’s tariff turmoil Trump  controlled that dial. Here he does not have that level of control. Iran gets a vote.

Iran gets a vote. Trump doesn’t seem to get that simple concept.

Matt Bracken @Matt_Bracken48

3h

This is not the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan War, where we could spend months and years without major damage to the US or the global economy. This is like a knife fight in a cave between a SCUBA diver with a diminishing air tank and a moray eel. In this war, time is a more unforgiving enemy than Iran. And the civilization which invented chess understands this even if we do not.

I listened to Robert Pape this evening, and he had some worthwhile analysis on offer:

US has suffered its worst ‘strategic defeat since the Vietnam war’ | Prof. Robert Pape

Q: One thing that’s come out in the New York Times this morning is how this war was sold on February 11th by Mr. Netanyahu to Mr. Trump, and he talked about how regime change was possible, how Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities would be destroyed and in fact they thought that Hormuz wouldn’t be used as a chokehold point and neighboring countries’ damage would be minimal. John Ratcliff, the CIA director, said this was farcical. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, said it was BS. General Caine said it was standard operating procedure for the Israelis to oversell. It is utterly extraordinary, isn’t it, that this was all ignored by the president?

Pape: Yes, he bought the Israeli line, hook line and sinker, so to speak. And what this is going to do is have tremendous consequences in domestic politics inside the United States. So we were just talking about the international consequences. So point number one, President Trump is heading to become the lamest of lame ducks ever in American history because this gigantic strategic defeat--on top of this moral issue of intent to commit effective genocide--is going to cause him to become radioactive with just about everybody in the GOP who’s running for reelection. And even many who are not. ....

But on top of that, now with the information coming out about the role of Israel--and basically Trump was Netanyahu’s puppet--what you are seeing now is this will probably work tremendously to unwind support for Israel inside of the Congress. Up until now you’ve seen in public opinion polls that support for Israel in the United States has been drifting away, and everybody’s been saying, ‘Well, no, that won’t really matter. Israel’s providing--or through its puppets and so forth--money to the Congress.’ Well, hold it. Now, this is another story. Now with Israel having caused America’s greatest strategic defeat, you can give these congressmen all the money you want. They’re still going down in terms of the vote. I mean, this is all about, Can congressmen and women win in November? And tying yourself now to Trump, tying yourself now to Israel--that used to be a winning strategy for many politicians. ... There’s going to be domestic distancing here. And it’s not just going to be distancing from Trump--it’s going to be distancing from Israel precisely because of the story you just read.

OK, I agree with most of that, but politics is all about the economy, right? Not only will Israel be seen as responsible for the greatest strategic defeat since Vietnam, but it will also be held responsible for the terrible economy. You can argue that neither of those judgments tell the whole story, but it will happen.

If the Democrats win the House almost surely Trump will be impeached before the gavel hits the table. I mean, this will happen in nanoseconds--but impeachment doesn’t mean removal. ... I suspect that even the Democrats will probably want Donald Trump to stay around as a lame duck, because he’s the perfect Jimmy Carter or Lyndon Johnson to run against. He’s so damaged and so weak. Why would Democrats want to allow a stronger Republican president to come in? Oddly enough, it’s now the Republicans who have the most interest in removing Donald Trump and finding somebody else. A JD, it could be Rubio, or it almost doesn’t matter at this point.

Again, I mostly agree. This is why I’ve questioned whether Trump can make it to November. Say anything you want about Carter and Johnson—you’ll get no pushback from me. Nevertheless, what Trump has done has been so willfull, so in your face, such a betrayal of his base, that additional factors may be in play. Yes, Republicans will be desperate to distance themselves from Trump—perhaps enough to impeach him before November. But the Dems may find themselves under intense pressure from their base to act because of the damage Trump is doing to the country. Vance or Rubio? Think of Gerald Ford.

My best guess is that the Financial Times is on to something when they claim that, even as Trump was posting vulgar and hyperbolic threats, he was desperately seeking a ceasefire as a means of extricating himself from those same threats—very possibly because the US military was refusing to perpetrate the war crimes and genocide that Trump was threatening.

Financial Times @FT

3h

FT Exclusive: The idea for a pause in fighting, under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, originated from Donald Trump’s team, even as the US president escalated threats against the Islamic republic.

And the reports that China intervened to get Iran to agree to this bizarre charade are almost certainly also true. When Iran balked at the bullshit, Trump snookered the Chinese into the charade, because he needed that off-ramp without climbing down from his threats. And now Trump is simply walking away from all the representations he made, perhaps because he didn’t believe that it would all blow up in his face and make him a laughing stock—a blow to his narcissistic ego that he couldn’t stomach.

Sounds incredible, right? Maybe this game was all precipitated by the disastrous failed raid at Isfahan. We still don’t know the full extent of that disaster. We have a tally of lost aircraft, but we don’t have an accounting of the human casualties.

Maybe in the face of increased pushback from the military the plan was to continue the war through Israel? I’m grasping at straws here. None of this bodes well for the US. It doesn’t change the fundamentally parlous position that Trump has placed us in.

sarah @sahouraxo

6h

This is the moment Israel dropped bombs on people attending a funeral in Chmistar, Baalbek

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai

3h

Iran informed the mediators that it will withdraw from the agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz following Trump and Israel’s violation of the agreement.

Arthur (Ghost Banned atm - plz check alt in bio) @artisanrocky

16h

Every single problem with Zionism was already identified, often by other Jews, long before Zionism ever took off.

The core always comes back to “Building a Jewish state in a majority non-Jewish area is immoral and stupid”

Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi

2h

The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.

The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.

Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara

6h

Terrifying reality check. A Top US General explicitly admits the ceasefire with Iran is merely a “pause.” He confirms the Pentagon is fully prepared to instantly resume their devastating bombing campaign. The Trump administration doesn’t want peace, they are just reloading!

This is huge bad news for Trump. How can Trump re-enter a war for Jewish Supremacy in the Middle East with polls of Americans looking like that? And with a direct relation between those Trumpian wars and inflation and economic hard times for Americans?

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

BREAKING! Downing of Hermes 900 UAV over Fars airspace

IRGC Public Relations:

An advanced Hermes 900 unmanned aerial vehicle was detected, tracked, and shot down moments ago over the skies of Lar in Fars Province. The interception was carried out by a new IRGC air defense system operating under Iran’s fully integrated national air defense network.

The statement emphasized that any intrusion by hostile U.S. or Zionist aircraft into Iranian airspace—even without conducting military action—constitutes a violation of the ceasefire. It will be met with a firm and decisive response.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with Pakistan’s army leadership to review recent developments, including ceasefire violations.

…

The discussion covered ceasefire breaches in Iran and Lebanon by the Israeli government.

The Rogue State of Israel “defending itself” with strikes across Lebanon.

Over 300 people have been reported killed and injured so far.

If Israel violates the ceasefire, Iran will withdraw from the agreement:

• A knowledgeable source told Tasnim News Agency: Iran is considering withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement if Israel continues to violate it through ongoing attacks on Lebanon. Iran is reviewing the possibility of exiting the ceasefire agreement due to continued violations by the Israeli regime in its attacks on Lebanon.

• The informed source added that stopping the war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, was part of the two-week ceasefire plan accepted by the United States, but the Israeli regime, since this morning, has carried out brutal attacks against Lebanon in clear violation of the ceasefire.

• According to the source, while the possible withdrawal from the ceasefire plan is being considered, Iran’s armed forces are also determining targets in response to today’s alleged aggressions by the Israeli regime against Lebanon.

• He emphasized: “If the United States cannot control its rabid dog in the region, Iran will exceptionally help it in this regard—by force.”

PBS White House correspondent Liz Landers asked Trump whether Lebanon is part of the ceasefire deal. Trump said it is not, citing Hezbollah, and added that “they will be taken care of.”

This is directly opposite to what the Pakistani PM said yesterday, who stated that Lebanon is included in the deal.

The US regime is showing its lying face once again — it took less than a day.

But, all that said, I believe Trump is in a dicier position than ever.

I strongly suspect that the US military is alarmed and in a rebellious mood, based on the obvious failure of all alleged war objectives—regime change, opening Hormuz, degrading Iran’s enrichment and missile programs. Increasing losses of equipment and the coverup of personnel losses, along with the radical attrition of precision standoff missiles, adds to the alarm. Congress will be returning soon and the military will be facing tough questions on all these points. I believe it’s possible that Trump’s unhinged social media claims that he would send the military out to commit genocide and other war crimes could have been a final straw—the military may have refused to carry that out, leading to yesterday’s scramble for a quickie off-ramp that Trump is now trying to back out of.

Returning to war on Iran will also be difficult because, as everything goes wrong (as above, and more), for all sorts of reasons. As Mercouris says, “Trump will be saying all sorts of things over the next few days,” but it remains that we’re at day 40 of this insane war, and by day 60 Trump needs Congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution. That authorization becomes more dubious by the day. Congress will be receiving all sorts of leaks from the military. Crucially, that will include leaks about the casualties cover-up.

Further, this war is extremely unpopular with Americans, and the looming economic consequences will increase public ire (gas near me is at $4.69 this morning). Congress will be looking for some way, any way, to distance themselves from this disaster. The GOP, in particular, is getting electoral data on how disastrous Trump’s war and Trump’s persona are becoming from a purely political standpoint:

‘A wow moment’: Democrats’ election hot streak goes scorching

Two races in battleground states on Tuesday saw the party make massive gains compared to 2024.

In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle.

The results in the battleground states — home to key Senate, gubernatorial and House races — are the latest repudiation from voters of Trump and his agenda and flashing warning signs for the GOP heading into November.

“It’s a wow moment in Wisconsin politics,” said former Republican strategist Brandon Scholz, who left the party in 2021. “Republicans ought to be sitting down tonight and going, ‘Okay, we just screwed up another race. What are we going to do in November?’”

The rational prediction is that the GOP will be unable to hang on to either house with Trump leading the party. Well, they’d be highly unlikely to do so even if they managed to somehow dump Trump right now—but, nothing tried, nothing gained.

Warnings for the G.O.P.: 3 Takeaways From the Elections in Georgia and Wisconsin

A Republican won Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat, but Democrats shifted the district 25 points to the left since the 2024 presidential race. Conservative candidates lost in Wisconsin, too.

On Tuesday night, voters in a conservative and rural corner of Georgia sent a Republican, Clay Fuller, to Congress to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene. But they did so with decidedly less enthusiasm than they showed two years ago: All 10 of the district’s counties shifted by double digits toward the Democratic candidate compared with the 2024 presidential election.

And in Wisconsin, voters again handed a liberal Supreme Court candidate, Chris Taylor, a commanding victory over a conservative rival, cementing a five-to-two liberal majority on the state’s high court. Judge Taylor’s victory came by an even wider margin than the 2023 and 2025 liberal triumphs in Wisconsin Supreme Court elections that drew national attention and served as magnets for political donors.

Georgia’s special election had the largest shift toward Democrats, about 25 points, of any congressional contest since President Trump took office at the beginning of 2025. It came a year after Wisconsin’s last state Supreme Court race brought the first Democratic rebuke of Mr. Trump’s second term.

Here are three takeaways from the Tuesday night results:

A Big Shift in Georgia

Mr. Fuller won comfortably in a special election that was never much in doubt. But Republicans elsewhere will take note that a district where Mr. Trump took 68 percent of the vote in 2024 swung 25 points away from Mr. Fuller on Tuesday.

The shift is a potential harbinger for Republicans in this year’s midterm elections. Nearly two dozen House Republicans won their 2024 races by 10 points or less. The Senate map includes seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas that could be in play if the Democratic advantage proves to be durable through November. Georgia Democrats also saw the outcome as a boost for Senator Jon Ossoff, who is seeking re-election this fall.

Turnout, of course, is expected to be higher in November than in any special election. Torrents of money will materialize that was not present in a Georgia special election Republicans were certain to win. But Mr. Trump tried to help Mr. Fuller. He offered a full endorsement and traveled to the district for a rally in February.

My point is that a Trump campaign to stay in this war on Iran in the face of all this is likely to backfire—spectacularly.

First, here’s the 10 point plan that’s circulating on the interwebs:

Disclose.tv @disclosetv

18m

JUST IN - Iran’s Supreme National Security Council releases 10-point proposal to end the war, proposing negotiations begin on Friday, April 10, in Islamabad.

So, like, WOW! Total victory for Iran.

But here’s Megatron’s explanation

Megatron @Megatron_ron

45m

BREAKING:

 What US and Iran have agreed on:

– Iran and the U.S. agreed to a 2-week ceasefire, in which Israel is also included.

– Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during these two weeks.

– In turn, America has agreed to begin negotiations in Islamabad on Friday, based on Iran’s 10-point plan.

– The acceptance of Iran’s 10-point plan, which contains the lifting of sanctions, guarantees of non-aggression, acceptance of nuclear enrichment, formal Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and other things, is a precondition for the establishment of a permanent ceasefire.

– If US does not abide by the 10-point plan of Iran, it is likely the war will continue after two weeks.

That sounds like there will be a period of Iran seeing whether any attempt is made to interfere with Iran’s control over Hormuz. Perhaps even more important, it sounds like Iran expects all sanctions to be lifted before any negotiating begins. Here’s Trump’s statement—preceded by a bit more explaining by Megatron:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

BREAKING:

 President Trump announces a two week extension of the deadline, including a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran

He says the resumption of hostilities will depend on whether Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz or not.

Trump says Iran is supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran—if we can trust the internet accounts—says opening the Strait of Hormuz is dependent on Iran “maintaining control” over said strait. The two are not incompatible. We’ll just have to wait and see. The key is what comes out of the negotiations—if they ever take place.

Here is Trump’s statement:

It sure reads like Trump is desperately looking forward to a TACO. But, in the meantime, Iran and Israel are still at war and Iran is still striking Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia. And there some more details/issues, depending on your point of view:

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

40m

The 15 point US plan and the 10 point Iranian plan are BOTH not being agreed to yet.

THEY ARE THE BASE FOR TALKS — !@##%

dana @dana916

26m

 The “Hebrew” broadcasting authority:

Israel was not part of the negotiation process regarding Iran, and the US Vice President convinced Netanyahu to make the decision to ceasefire.

ILRedAlert @ILRedAlert

24m

Pakistan PM says US-Iran ceasefire covers ‘everywhere’ including Lebanon, AFP reports.

Polymarket @Polymarket

1h

BREAKING: Iran accepting the ceasefire was reportedly driven by a “last-minute intervention by China”

We shall see.

First, Trump suffered a serious defeat in the failed attempt to snatch a portion of Iran’s enriched uranium. He’s trying to cover that up as a heroic rescue, and he’s probably also covering up personnel losses (Freeman, Crooke, Wilkerson). I think Alastair Crooke is on to something when he suggests that the military wanted to abort the raid when the F-15E went down, but that Trump insisted on going ahead—for the reasons I went through in Did We Just See Trump’s Plan B? Trump’s insistence turned a reverse into a disaster, and it probably also enraged the US military. Is it possible that the military is close to revolt?

Second, Iran has announced its own escalation—and I’m not talking about the target list. First, the WSJ is reporting that Iran has announced what stock of munitions it has left:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

2h

Tehran told Pakistan, acting as mediator, that it still holds around 15,000 missiles and 45,000 drones...

That’s potentially years worth of relatively precision weapons. Further, Iran has also announced that it will start using dual missile launchers—potentially doubling the size of each strike at current rates. And they have the missile stocks to do that for years, or even to escalate for years.

Put those two together and it should be enough to give serious pause even to a narcissist like Trump. Thus …

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

20m

IT’S TACO TUESDAY!!!!!

So, in other words, in the face of Iran’s calling of Trump’s bluff/threats—and then doubling down with its own threats of retaliation—Pakistan is offering Trump a climbdown that can be framed as diplomacy of some sort. The fact that this was put out in public seems to be a good sign. That’s good, rather than bad, but the future still looms. Will Congress do the intervention that’s needed? Will the Gang of Eight take the lead, take Veep Vance by the scruff of his neck and demand action while they get impeachment in train?

Maybe Trump can assuage his ego with this:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

56m

Yemeni couples are now hiring Trump impersonators for their weddings.

What will the future bring, even if Trump is forced to back down tonight? That will require Congress breaking free—if only temporarily—from the control of the Jewish Nationalist Lobby. Is that possible? Perhaps—if they realize that their political survival is at stake.

It was quite striking listening to DD and Mac this morning. At a certain point DD was going on a bit about how Trump must be getting terrible advice. Mac finally broke in and said, in effect, ‘Well, who are these people? Name them!’ So DD smiled and came up with a list off the top of his head: ‘Jared, Witkoff, Stephen Miller, Lindsey!’ To which Mac responded: ‘Don’t forget Howard Lutnick. There’s rarely a picture of Trump in the Oval Office that doesn’t also feature Lutnick.’

Think about that. Howard Lutnick. Next door neighbor of Epstein. Business associate of Epstein. Visitor to Epstein Island—with his family, no less. In charge of vetting Trump’s major appointments during the transition. Oh yeah, Mac also remarked that the 25th would be a very tough call because Trump is surrounded by people, all of whom had to take the Israel First Oath in order to get their gigs in Trump 2.0. Oaths administered by Lutnick, in a manner of speaking.

That’s where we are.

Yesterday Trump whined that Iran refuses to say, ‘I yield’—”But they will.” This morning Trump made the threat of genocide absolutely explicit:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

BREAKING:

Trump on Truth Social says he will WIPE OUT the Iranian civilization:

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.

However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter and less radicalized minds will prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?

We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. 47 years of distortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God bless the great People of Iran!”

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

A “civilization” that gave the world McDonald’s is threatening to wipe out the civilization that gave the world algebra.

And Veep Vance seems to have seconded that idea this morning: Vance: “We have tools we haven’t used yet.”

How’s that for a profile in cowardice?

I argued yesterday that Trump’s failed gamble to snatch at least some of Iran’s enriched uranium was his throw of the dice to extricate himself from the mess he’s made of the world, allowing him to claim—however implausibly—that he “saved” the world rather than destroying it. One could argue that Trump’s embrace of the Jewish Nationalist concept of total war—the effort to level Iranian civilization “back to the Stone Ages”, much as we now see Jewish Nationalists using systematic demolition, employing explosive charges, to level ages old villages in Lebanon—will stop short of mass depopulation of Iran. It’s still genocide. John Mearsheimer, speaking with Judge Nap and explicitly referencing Trump’s latest message, sums it up well:

John Mearsheimer: If this isn’t genocidal intent I don’t know what is. ... President Trump is desperate. His presidency is on the line--I would argue that it’s ruined. ... Trump has basically destroyed his presidency--no matter where he takes this one, he loses.

These threats and actions are the desperate acts of a cornered narcissist who recognizes no morality except his own will. The well being of his own ego trumps (!) all other considerations—his ego is more important than the survival of a whole civilization. If you read Trump’s words, it’s clear that his words are directed as much to Americans as to Iranians—because Iran is simply an “excursion” that was intended to bolster Trump’s sagging image in America. He is first and foremost attempting to justify himself to the Americans who will be voting on his administration, come November. At the same time, he’s frantically working at the same levers of pressure, coercion, and bullying that he’s employed all his life. As Chas Freeman noted to Judge Nap this morning:

We have in effect recognized or acknowledged Iranian control of the straight of Hormuz. We’re not going through it. The president has said he understands that we can’t open it militarily. We need to find some other way to do it. His preferred course evidently follows his own experience as a real estate mogul in New York. That is, he learned two things in that earlier experience. One, that if you have Roy Cohn as a kind of attack dog--one of the most despicable human beings ever to walk the planet--you can achieve deals through coercion. You don’t have to be nice. You apply every dirty trick you can think of, and if you are resisted you resort to the courts--you bankrupt your opponent. The second thing he learned was that if you fail--which he did on numerous occasions, six bankruptcies--you go bankrupt, you declare bankruptcy, you walk away with no obligations. So what he seems to be doing now is a combination of these things.

Let me digress for a moment—although not really. Roy Cohn was the lawyer for all five mob families in the New York City metro area. He was also Donald Trump’s “mentor”, whom Trump used to scare other real estate moguls into giving way to him—saying “I yield,” which Iran won’t do. Did Freeman also refer to Cohn because of the implicit reference of Trump’s connection to the Jewish Mob’s use of sexual blackmail, and because Epstein stepped into Cohn’s shoes in that regard? You can read lots more about that here, but this next quote will do for our purposes, and to remind readers of the suspicion that so much of what Trump is doing may have the purpose of safeguarding the crucial secret of power:

These corrupt ties to government metastasized during WW2 with the development of federal government intelligence agencies (FBI, CIA), which used ties to organized crime—including both the Mafia and the Jewish Mob—for their own purposes. Webb goes into great detail on all of this, including the close ties of intel officials such as J. Edgar Hoover and James Jesus Angleton to members of the Jewish Mob who were active in the sexual blackmail area. The key figure here was Roy Cohn, whom readers may be familiar with from many sources, including Ron Unz’s articles on the McCarthy era. Cohn, of course, is well known as Donald Trump’s “mentor.” Trump was also closely connected to Jeffrey Epstein from the early years of Epstein’s rise to influence in this underworld of sexual blackmail. Webb’s key idea is that—after Cohn’s death in 1986—Epstein essentially took over at least part of the role that Cohn had played. Epstein’s rise was fueled by the support of persons with close ties to both organized crime and the political and intelligence world on a multinational level (CIA, Mossad, MI6), such as Les Wexner, the Bronfman family, and Robert Maxwell.

That’s the (very) bare bones.

Here’s what’s going on now. Trump has already initiated a campaign of civilizational destruction, using both indiscriminate as well as targeted means—this is genocide:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

3h

BREAKING: Israel and US have begun a massive aerial campaign, wiping out Iran’s railway infrastructure.

Airstrikes are ongoing across Iran.

.

According to Al Jazeera the US and Israel have deliberately bombed over 30 universities across Iran, assassinating professors in their homes and massacring over 60 students.

.

The Rafie Nia Synagogue on Fariman Street in Tehran, was completely destroyed in the early morning attacks by ‘Israel’.

Perhaps the members of that synagogue were among those Iranian Jews who have condemned Trump’s genocidal campaign.

Max Blumenthal @MaxBlumenthal

1h

Israel sent spies to bomb Jewish centers in Baghdad in the early 1950s to compel Iraqi Jews to emigrate

Its army bombed the main synagogue in Beirut after it invaded Lebanon in 1982

Now it’s attacking the last major Jewish community in the region outside Zionism’s control

Of course, Iran gets a vote, too, in a metaphorical but no less real sense. They are calling Trump’s bluff:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1h

BREAKING:

Iran has announced that it will destroy the entire energy infrastructure of Israel and all other countries that host US bases in the region:

“WARNING: From now on, certain considerations regarding good neighborliness and self-restraint have ended.

We will deal with the infrastructure of the United States and its partners in the Persian Gulf in such a way that they will be deprived of the region’s oil and gas for years.”

.

Iran cancels all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the United States and announces the suspension of any and all message exchanges, following Trump’s latest threat – Reuters

When Trump’s latest venture into coercion predictably fails and Iran continues to respond—rather than allowing Trump to TACO after his “beautiful stay”—what happens next. Will Trump’s wounded ego—his entire political existence as POTUS threatened by the economic ruin he has wrought on the world—lash out even more violently?

And that leads to this fear:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

1m

BREAKING:

Trump is considering NUCLEAR strike on Iran - The Guardian

The Guardian reports there are increasing fears within Trump’s current and former advisory circle that the President may consider ordering a nuclear strike on Iran’

The biggest most beautiful bomb ever! I can hear him saying it.

Tucker Carlson, for one, says that Trump proxies are preparing the American public for exactly that possibility:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

3h

NEW:

Tucker Carlson says Trump is considering to use nuclear weapons against Iran

He publicly urges the US military and Pentagon officials to actively defy Donald Trump and refuse orders if he attempts to launch nuclear weapons against Iran.

Here’s a quote from Tucker’s warning, lifted from Judge Nap’s interview with Chas Freeman:

Judge Nap: You got to sort of hope to keep your breakfast down while we listen to Mr. Levin, but here we go.

Mark Levin: The Battle of Okinawa. 50,000 plus casualties, over 12,000, nearly 13,000 killed on that island, which is what convinced Truman that we would lose a million men if we didn’t drop the atomic bombs that we did. This is a war or a peace mission to stop nuclear weapons that can blow away millions of Americans.

That is also another Jewish Nationalist lie, the type of lie Trump regularly repeats in his endless gaslighting of Americans.

Tucker Carlson: Embedded in there is something you need to know. It’s an argument that is being test driven. And, since no one to our knowledge has pushed back against it, may be in full operation now. It’s an argument for nuclear weapons. Here’s what he said. “Nearly 10% of all casualties in the second world war happened at the Battle of the Bulge,” which, of course, was at the end of the war, “the battle of Okinawa, 50,000 casualties, nearly 13,000 killed on that island, which is what convinced Truman,” Harry Truman, the then president, 1945, “we’d lose a million men if we didn’t drop the atomic bombs that we did.”

Did you hear that? That’s Mark Levin’s counsel to our sitting president, Donald Trump. ‘Right now, you are looking at a choice between the catastrophic loss of your troops in a ground war or the use of nuclear weapons, which in a sense, if you think about it, just think about it for a second, is actually an act of peace. It’s an act of peace! The most humane thing you could do is to end this now with nuclear weapons.’ That’s the case Mark Levin is making to the president who just last week recommended that all Americans watch Mark Levin’s show. Okay, this is not like crazy dot connecting here. This is one to one. This is really obvious where we’re moving. And again, we’re moving toward the use of weapons of indiscriminate mass destruction, possibly nuclear weapons.

This takes us back to Trump’s failed Plan B—the failed snatch op. At this moment we’ve moved on to Plan C—genocide by conventional means which Trump is hoping will allow him to TACO and blame the ensuing chaos on anybody but himself. But Iran isn’t playing along. Here’s how Trump is framing Plan C, courtesy of Danny Davis. Make no mistake—this is war on the Iranian people. It’s genocide.

Did Trump Just Threaten to Nuke Iran Tonight?

DD: As you listen to this, think—does this sound like something that I can get done with no ground army and with bombs that we’ve already been using for 37, 38 something days already? JASSMS, Tomahawks, everything else, and it hasn’t brought them to their heels. Does this sound like something different could happen doing the same thing harder?

Trump: We have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12:00 tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again. I mean, complete demolition by 12:00, and it’ll happen over a period of 4 hours if we want it to. We don’t want that to happen. We may even get involved with helping them rebuild their nation. And you know what? If that’s the case, the last thing we want to do is start with power plants, which are among the most expensive thing, and bridges. Do I want to do that? No. Do I want to destroy their infrastructure? No. It will take them a hundred years to rebuild. Right now, if we left today, it would take them 20 years to rebuild their country, and it would never be as good as it was. And the only way they’re going to be able to rebuild their country is to utilize the genius of the United States of America.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

Iranian citizens are responding to threats against national infrastructure by forming human chains around bridges and power plants across the country.

And if Iran continues to refuse to say ‘I yield,’ as Trump is demanding? If they continue to resist and fight back against the might of the Anglo-Zionist Empire? If Iran refuses Trump his ego saving TACO? Commenter IJM sent this article that raises that issue:

Yes, Trump Might Use Nukes in Iran

We should all be very worried about this war’s trajectory.

…

At least some elites in Israel, America’s cobelligerent in the war, would like to see nuclear weapons used against Iran. Speaking last week on Israeli television, the journalist Shimon Riklin said, “The time has come for Israel to use an atomic bomb in Iran.” Seated nearby, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s national security minister, laughed with apparent approval.

Even if Trump isn’t actually planning to annihilate Iran or expecting to force total surrender, a nuclear strike could still fulfill one of his apparent objectives. Military analysts say that Trump wants to exit the Iran war but thinks he’ll need to go out with a bang.

That was my argument yesterday. That was Plan B. It fell on its face.

“President Trump is clearly frustrated and looking for an off ramp to end the war, but seems to want to put some kind of exclamation point on the campaign,” Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities told The American Conservative. “He’s hoping for a big win that he can use to sell the war as a massive success. This could push him to escalate, even as the returns are diminishing.”

Again, it’s about selling his ego to Americans.

Trump may have tried and failed to achieve such an “exclamation point” this weekend. The U.S. lost several military aircraft in what the government described as a search-and-rescue operation to retrieve an airman stranded in Iran after his own plane was shot down. On X, many users speculated that the mission had actually been “an attempt to seize Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.” The Iranian government has raised that possibility as well.

“If this theory is true,” wrote the journalist Robert Wright (my former boss) on Monday, “Trump was probably hoping this cinematic win would be his exit ramp, and he wouldn’t have to deliver on his vile threats to obliterate Iran. No such luck.”

Trump’s luck has indeed run out in Iran, as I had predicted it would. He seems poised to escalate further, but conventional air power hasn’t managed to deliver a knockout blow, and ground force operations would bring significant risks with limited upside. Trump appears to be trapped, and I fear he thinks a mushroom cloud would offer him enough cover to get out.

Where are our elected “representatives”? They’ve been bought by the Jewish Lobby. All this is being done in the name of the Jewish Supremacy Project.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

8h

Iran’s proposal to end the war. Note point 5: Israel would have to stop fighting in Lebanon and Gaza.

This means Israel controls the end of the war, not Trump. Trump has now lost officially control over the situation.

Right. Go back and reread re Cohn, Epstein, Trump.

America, hang your head in shame.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

21h

The US’ single biggest export in February was “non-monetary gold.”

Gold has been the US’ biggest export in 4 out of the past 5 months (it was the 2nd biggest export in the 5th mth.)

Trump is partially settling US trade deficits in gold, de facto.

This is NOT bearish for gold.

The White House @WhiteHouse

Apr 4

TRADE DEFICIT DOWN 55%. THANK YOU, MR. TARIFF!

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

21h

2/ Imagine how much lower the US trade deficit would be at $10,000 gold

Two brief points. Gold exports to settle trade deficits is probably a sign of declining US financial leverage in global trade, and we should be aiming for a healthier economy to rectify this situation. Wait and see whether the pattern of drastic downward job stats holds. I would count on that.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

8h

BREAKING:

 According to an informed U.S. military source, not one but four MH-6 ‘Little Bird’ helicopters had to be abandoned and were destroyed at the landing site along with the two C-130s Hercules – ABC News

During the operation, two MQ-9 ‘Reaper’ drones were also shot down.

Per Larry Johnson, these little copters don’t have the range for the round trip from Kuwait to Isfahan. That means they were transported inside the C-130s. My belief is that the plan was to coordinate a Special Forces raid/assault on whatever facility was being targeted with the actions of the F-15E.

That plan was disrupted by the shoot-down of the F-15E. What transpired afterwards is more speculative, but it’s clear that a major firefight ensued. The US claim is that the C-130s that flew in originally were both stuck in the sand—no, scratch that—they both suffered “mechanical failures”. So more C-130s had to be flown in for the evacuation. Those C-130s, by some weird good fortune, neither got stuck in the sand nor suffered mechanical failures. The major speculation surrounds the original C-130s—were they actually downed by Iranian fire and is CENTCOM concealing casualties?

Meanwhile …

Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics

8h

BREAKING: President Trump says he believes he can “get a deal with Iran” by Monday and that Iran is “negotiating now.”

Trump also says he is considering “blowing everything up” and “taking Iranian oil” if Iran does not make a deal “fast.”

.

BREAKING:

 Iran has told mediators that the U.S. is not in a position to make any demands – WSJ

And …

Iran Threatens “Complete And Utter Annihilation” Of OpenAI’s $30BN Stargate Data Center In Abu Dhabi

In a move that may well have been sponsored by Dario Amodei or Elon Musk, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a clear public warning to the US that any damage inflicted on Iran’s power infrastructure will be met with decisive retaliation. Specifically, IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari threatened the “complete and utter annihilation” of U.S. and Israeli facilities, with Stargate’s $30 billion “hidden” AI datacenter in Abu Dhabi singled out as a juicy target for Iranian destruction later in the video.

…

We’ve all heard endlessly that Iran is an enormous country.

That’s sure big—imagine trying to police those borders to prevent enemy aircraft from entering your space.

We’ve also heard endlessly how many people live in Iran—about 90 million. But what we don’t often hear is that most of Iran is relatively thinly populated.

This map will give you an even better idea of the population density:

Now, to better understand the post, Isfahan province is located here. It’s capital, Isfahan city, has a population of about 2.25 million, but the recovery site of CSAR op was to the SE of Isfahan city in a very thinly populated region:

But the location where the F-15E was downed was southwest of Isfahan province, in a mountainous but relatively populated area. There are, fyi, important nuclear related facilities in Isfahan.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 According to geolocation data, the WSO of the downed F-15E was evacuated via a remote agricultural airstrip roughly 50 km south of Isfahan.

He was initially located on Mount Siyah in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province, reportedly hiding in a crevice. U.S. recovery personnel later described landing in open terrain south of Isfahan. The straight-line distance between those points is at least 231 km—closer to 428 km by road.

You get the picture immediately. He didn’t jump out of his ejection seat and hoof it 231 km as the crow flies to the evacuation point—moving away from the Kuwaiti border, which should have been his goal.

That implies the WSO was moved a considerable distance—potentially by helicopter—to an extraction point still roughly 400 km from the Kuwaiti border. One plausible platform for this would be an MH-6M “Little Bird” operated by the 160th SOAR.

If accurate, this suggests a sustained U.S. air operation deep inside Iranian territory—potentially up to 400 km from the border—over a period of roughly 36 hours. That would include search and recovery, establishing a landing zone, relocating the pilot, and executing the final extraction, reportedly without losses.

What this suggests to me—at least prima facie—is that there was an ongoing operation to target a nuclear facility near Isfahan and that a base of operations had been set up in a remote area—perhaps a dry lakebed?—where aircraft could land undetected. Read up on C-130s—they are notably able to utilize “unprepared runways for takeoffs and landings.” They are also multi-use aircraft, suitable for use both as gunships (in their AC-130 variant) and as troop transports. The F-15E, under my speculative scenario, was being called in to attack a site with possible follow up ground action by Special Forces contingents who were already in place on the ground. Or some variation of that.

Taken at face value, this reflects poorly on Iranian response capabilities. Resistance appears to have been limited to small-arms fire from local militias and Basij units, pointing to gaps not only in air defense coverage but also in coordination and access to systems like MANPADS.

As I said up top, however, one can’t expect that—in a vast country that is thinly populated for great expanses of its territory—military units would be evenly dispersed. Superimpose that map of Iran compared to the CONUS over the Rocky Mountain and Great Basin areas rather than over the Great Plains and you’ll have a better idea of the difficulty the IRGC would have in rapidly responding to remote areas.

That said—tinfoil hat moment—

Given that the Isfahan area hosts sensitive nuclear infrastructure long associated with uranium conversion and research, it’s worth asking whether the operation had secondary objectives beyond personnel recovery—or whether the CSAR mission itself was simply an unplanned component of a broader operation.

And if the official account is accurate, it sets a troubling precedent for Iran: the U.S. appears capable of conducting extended operations deep inside Iran while openly signaling interest in securing its enriched uranium.

If even half of this is true, then it would appear that the shoot-down of the F-15E disrupted what was intended to be a raid involving boots on the ground—not just an air strike. If so, at that point it became a matter of great urgency to extract not just the two man crew of the F-15E but the entire force. And if an F-15E had already been taken down, the C-130s—which had probably flown the Special Ops forces in—would be at great risk. In fact two may have been shot down. Under this scenario, the weapons officer would have been extracted from the shoot-down site and whisked deeper into Iran—to be evacuated with the main force. Meanwhile, a diversionary action would be launched near the shoot-down site to make it appear that that was the real focus of US action, with the rescue beacon left in place so that it would appear that the weapons officer was still in that area.

Lesson learned? With Trump you have to be skeptical. However, maybe some of those guys who masquerade in uniforms will tell him, Not again—there are too many risks. Like they should have told him in the first place. They got lucky this time.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

1h

Sounds like things are going really well...

In other words, Tuesday will be a day dedicated to US war crimes against Iran, as if bombing universities and other civilian targets weren’t war crimes enough. To go with two sneak “decapitation” strikes under cover of Jewish Nationalists negotiating with Iran.

Simplicius comments:

Unhinged madman

Sean Foo this morning is saying that

Trump is still treating the Iran war as either a spectacle, a theater show, or a joke. And he has signaled that the blame shifting could happen if things go nasty. If things go down south and if there’s no deal, it isn’t going to be Trump’s fault. And I don’t really think he meant it as a joke. It’s more of foreshadowing here.

Trump: He’s working on the the deal, right? How’s that moving? Is it okay? The big deal. So, if it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance. If it if it does happen, I’m taking full credit. No, I think it’ll be uh I think it has to happen. I think they’re desperate.

I think Gromen is right. You can smell the desperation.

As I remarked in the first post this morning, short of nuclear war Iran has escalation dominance—and they’re saying that if Trump doesn’t back off they’ll use it. By destroying Saudi oil facilities.

And where are our elected representatives, while this madman is destroying the world as we have known it? They’re junketing around the world while a war is going on. Commenter Nutmeg:

https://www.rawstory.com/congress-vacationing-shutdown/ TMZ caught 30 members of Congress touring Scotland courtesy of taxpayer funding amid the ongoing partial government shutdown.

When they should be back in DC impeaching Trump.

How does this make you feel—and check out their smiles:

Power to the People ☭ @ProudSocialist

18h

On Israel’s Channel 14 News Shimon Riklin suggests it is time for Israel to use an atomic bomb on Iran:

“Why aren’t we using a neutron bomb (in Iran)? It’s a type of atomic bomb that doesn’t damage buildings, it kills people.”

And by the way:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

2h

NEW:

 An aviation reporter that covered multiple air crashes claims it’s a plane crash not as the US claims that special forces destroy the planes themselves:

“The propeller blades in attached pic are bent backward exactly in a way they do when spinning at high RPM during a crash impact. That’s textbook dynamic. It is downing damage not blowing up of static aircraft”

That would mean there were people on board.

Finally, LJ has guest post today. It’s long, but I urge readers to read and view all of it:

War with Iran: The Outcome is Predictable—but It Remains to be Seen just How Deep the Blood Will be Through Which the World Will Be Wading.

Introduction

It is truly staggering to realize that the Western media still have not recognized that this war against Iran—which Israel and the United States are waging in a manner that defies every legal and moral standard—is already lost, and that the consequences are already written in bold letters on the wall: Western hegemony is a thing of the past; the fate of the EU and NATO hangs by a thread; West Asia will have new masters; and Iran, as one of the oldest civilizations on Earth, will once again assume its rightful role in the future.

In this article, I will first examine the final outcome, which is already foreseeable, since the balance of power and the parties’ sustainability are obvious, and the fanatical aggressors’ capacity for escalation is far more limited than it appears at first glance. The war may come to an end in various ways, but the result will be the same in any scenario. The question is “only” how deep President Trump is willing to wade through blood. The death toll is directly proportional to the duration of the conflict.

So I’ll start with the end of the story, since the ending is easier to outline than the path leading up to it.

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