MenchOsint @MenchOsint

6h

Wow ... In just few hours the IRGC has totally closed the US-backed shipping corridor.

Not a single merchant vessel is using Omani waters to transit the strait.

Drop Site @DropSiteNews

22m

 At least 8 ships attempting to exit the Gulf along the Omani coast turned back between Friday and Saturday, Bloomberg reports, with some completing transit only after diverting to Iran’s designated northern route in sharp mid-strait reversals.

Marine traffic data over the past 24 hours shows just 1 merchant vessel completing the US-backed southern corridor through Omani waters, with the overwhelming majority using Iran’s route instead.

The enforcement from Iran—using VHF warnings and possibly speedboats—follows Thursday’s warning from Iran’s joint military command that vessels deviating from Iranian-designated routes face an “immediate and forceful response,” and lands a day after the UK and France took steps to restore safe transit through Hormuz, calling it “a matter of global concern.”

So Iran was no more impressed with French and British bluster than they have been with Trump’s bluster.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

10h

Very interesting ... it looks like the heavy 24/7 US Air cover is not enough to “protect” this corridor.

On the other hand, I’ve seen reports that additional A-10 Thunderbolts have been deployed to the region. That could signal an imminent effort to drive IRGC fast boats out of the waters around Hormuz.

On to Plan B.

Alastair Crooke is arguing that, following the failure of Plan A--the pipe-dream of regime change or collapse in Iran via decapitation strikes--the Anglo-Zionists have pivoted to a “Plan B.” In my understanding of the situation, the Anglo-Zionists have accepted that the Islamic Republic cannot be eradicated in the near term, so Plan B represents a pivot to the more immediate threat to the Jewish Supremacy Project, which is Hezbollah.

Plan B is a complex operation that involves multiple fronts. In Lebanon, the idea is to maintain pressure on Hezbollah from north and south--from the south a continued Israeli Gazafication of southern Lebanon, aided from the north by the Lebanese government.

A second front is in Palestine proper. There the remaining population of Gaza--Chas Freeman estimates that the Jewish Nationalist genocide there has killed 680K Gazans, so far--will be forced into what will amount to concentration camps: As IsraelHayom notes:

In effect, this is the implementation of Section 17 of Trump’s Gaza Plan, which paves the way for what could be called “temporary rehabilitation” in areas free of Hamas. In those areas, senior officials pledge, no concrete will be brought in for Gaza’s reconstruction. Instead, caravans will be placed there and medical and other services will be provided for the population that settles in them. In this way, through a pincer movement, the IDF will continue to deepen its hold on territory in the Strip and bite off more areas under Hamas control, while the Board of Peace will “bite off” population from it. Later, according to officials who have seen the plans, the hope is that Hamas will be left without population, territory and resources, and that this will be the way to bring about its elimination.

The third front is in Iraq. There, the US has installed what they hope will be a compliant new Prime Minister. His assigned task will be to disarm the Shiite militias that have been such a thorn in the side for the USraeli occupation forces in the Syraq region. The goal here is to cover the back of Trump’s ISIS proxy, Jolani, as Crooke puts it:

to facilitat[e] a Syrian incursion by President Jolani’s jihadist militia into north-eastern Lebanon to complete the vice closing in on Hizbullah.

Crooke sees this Plan B as signaling a split within the Trump regime. As I read it, Plan B is the Jewish Nationalist alternative or policy response to the MOU—which is increasingly seen to be a dead letter. As such, Little Marco Rubio has been tasked with implementing Plan B, and that puts Rubio directly at odds with Veep Vance, who is identified with the MOU--which had called for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and an overall greater engagement with Iran.

There are a lot of things that could go wrong here, that could lead to an ever deeper American quagmire. The idea that the US can arm and train up the Lebanese army to the point that it will willingly and effectively attack Hezbollah seems a fantasy to me. Hezbollah undoubtedly has enemies in Lebanon, but by the same token so does the entire concept of a Lebanon dominated by a Christian led government serving as a Jewish Nationalist proxy. Even significant portions of the Christian population may see problems with that outcome.

The prospects for an American dominated Iraqi government taking effective control of that majority Shiite country seem to me to be equally dim. Where Turkey stands in Plan B’s vision of a new USraeli dominated Syraq that will take control of Lebanon is anyone’s gues. My personal guess is that Turkey will view such a development as a mortal threat to its own regional ambitions.

In any event, Iran and Yemen cannot be ignored in any of this. This was the point of the introduction to this post. Israel is also reported to be preparing strikes on Yemen from its new Somaliland proxy/staging area. Not coincidentally, Iran is flying in new weaponry to Yemen. Again, the prospets for guaranteeing a permanently open Bab el-Mandeb seem to me to be remote.

Crooke concludes:

The post-mortem on the US-Israeli war on Iran must be suspended as both Trump and Netanyahu enter a holding pattern ahead of elections. Trump might threaten to ‘obliterate’ Iran if it does not capitulate and bend the knee before him, but it is doubtful that the US can long maintain its military presence in the region with munitions in short supply. Nonetheless, a further round of intense kinetic war is highly probable — and widely expected in Iran.

A short ‘performative’ US military strike on Iran is possible, but would achieve little — and nothing strategic. [See above re possible attacks on Iranian fast boats.]

So who is losing in this ‘war’? Israel — and Netanyahu. Netanyahu is in deep distress electorally too.

The expected triumph of Israel over the Middle East has failed. The connected revolutionary war on Russia and the siege of China are faltering also, and Israel’s (until now unassailable) hold over the US is in question too.

Yesterday we discussed Philip Pilkington’s views on Trump’s extreme “short termism”, his tendency to rush about trying to plug holes without much thought to future consequences. In that context, the topic of Russia and China came up, as it must, in the overall discussion of the war on Iran. Crooke’s reference, also, to the Anglo Zionist “revolutionary war on Russia” and “the siege of China” is significant in that light. Trump’s short term attempt to blunt Iran’s victory by presenting an existential threat to Hezbollah could well involve the US in a military quagmire. All of this is strengthening the hands of both Russia and China, both of whom have good reason to encourage such a development. And have the means to do so.

First of all, Alastair Crooke was saying today to Danny Davis that Trump has attempted to talk Putin into a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. Putin, apparently, dismissed the notion of a ceasefire out of hand. It was another pretty obvious ploy by Trump to provide a break during which the hard pressed Ukrainian eastern front could be replenished and reinforced. Putin was having none of that. That, of course, fits in with the harder line Russia is now taking against NATO, which could lead to direct conflict. After months of NATO interference with Russian shipping, Russia is taking direct action in response, and that could extend to other areas:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

 Russian corvette drives off German coast guard, escorts sanctioned tanker through the Baltic

A Russian Navy corvette intervened Tuesday to protect the sanctioned oil tanker Kira K as it transited the Fehmarn Belt in the Baltic Sea, chasing off a German coast guard vessel that approached the ship.

The Kira K, carrying roughly 100,000 tons of Russian crude out of Primorsk, was passing through the strait when the German coast guard ship Bayreuth moved in. The Steregushchiy-class corvette Soobrazitelny (hull number 531) then closed in at high speed from the east and radioed a warning: “This is Russian warship 531 speaking, stay away from the Kira K.” The German vessel backed off, and the tanker continued on toward the Danish straits.

The same day, activists from Greenpeace, along with several European politicians and journalists, also approached the tanker in inflatable boats attempting to document its passage. The corvette pushed them back as well. No collisions or injuries were reported.

Crooke also mentioned another Trump initiative, and this one feeds directly into the Pilkington interview. According to Crooke, Trump has been trying to get the Iranians to agree to the following deal: The US will return Iran’s money, which the US has frozen, if Iran agrees to no tolls on ships transiting Hormuz. Iran has told Trump to pound sand and, as we know, is insisting that Trump actually comply with the terms of the MOU that he signed. The tolls/fees represent huge amounts of money, and Iran is looking for reparations not only for war damage but also for the years of economic sanctions. They’re not about to give that up for the return of what is rightfully theirs.

Now, the Mario/PP interview revolves around a much quoted interview with Veep Vance:

TRUMP PAUSED WAR TO MANIPULATE OIL PRICES - w/ Philip Pilkington

What got quoted from that Vance interview was just one brief sound byte, in which Vance stated that the point of the 60 day MOU was simply to “restock” oil and then decide what would come next. That sound byte rightfully drew a lot of notice because Vance was openly stating that the US had no intention of complying with the MOU that Trump signed. But Mario played several more minutes of Vance’s comments, and what becomes clear is that Trump has been trying to renegotiate the MOU along the exact lines that Crooke describes. Which, of course, begs the question: Why would Iran agree to a deal with someone who never honors the deals he signs?

In the wide ranging discussion that follows, PP explains what he believes is behind the huge discrepancy between oil futures contracts (and other forms of “paper oil”) and the actual price that refineries have to pay for the crude that they refine into petroleum products. Here’s my brief and non-expert account—listen to the interview for PP’s full explanation.

According to PP, most of the oil futures trading is done by large hedge funds. Since 2015-16, to his knowledge, those hedge funds have been using AI to automate their trading. As everyone knows, AI is especially good at picking out key words, using sources deemed “reliable”. PP maintains that the trades that lead to the out of wack oil futures prices are actuated by public narratives. So, we see—on a daily basis, and that’s no coincidence—Trump and Bessent in front of microphones proclaiming the “opening” of Hormuz, the “gusher” of oil now exiting the Persian Gulf, the prospect of oil (and thus gasoline) prices lower than before whatever that was that occurred between USrael and Iran, before the MOU. And it’s all happening during the greatest stock market boom in the greatest economy the world has ever seen. Brought about by you-know-who, who’s great fair fell on its face. PP adds that Bessent, being a former hedge fund manager, understands exactly how all this works.

First I’ll present Vance’s interview, from the video clip. There’s a lot of disinformation being pushed by Vance.

Vance: What the President has told us to do is use this MOU to sort of refill the world’s oil economy. To refill some [oil] stocks and then to see where the hand is. And I’ve said this repeatedly--if the Iranians are willing to make the commitments that we would like them to make, and are willing to back those up with verifiable milestones, then we are going to change our relationship with Iran. But, if they don’t do that, then nothing has really changed except for what we’ve already accomplished from the military campaign--which is a lot.

So, we see Vance trying to claim that the war was a big success. But later he admits that Trump saw that it was, in fact, leading to an economic disaster. Next come the only slightly veiled threats.

So, we kind of have two options here. We have the option of pursuing a long-term deal with the Iranians, but that requires a significant change in their behavior. We have the option of banking our wins and then, of course, doing things on top of that if the president feels that we have to. And I think both of those options are very much in play and the president’s going to let this play out.

The threats are followed by gaslighting. We’re to believe that in a few short days all the pressure of the energy crisis Trump loosed upon an unsuspecting world has dissipated—mostly. In fact, nothing of the sort has occurred, which Vance surely knows.

But what’s happening right now is he’s letting those options play out in an environment where there is significantly less pressure on the world energy economy. And this is my biggest frustration with right-wing critics of what we’ve done over the last few months in Iran. They don’t realize how completely they were losing the political argument because of what was happening to world energy markets. So what the president of the United States has done--

Q: --you’re talking about the critics who want more bombs dropping?

Now comes the admission. The bombing of Iran was pointless—it served no objective. So why did Trump do it? Well … anyway, Vance tells us we’re in “a very good place.”

Their attitude is just drop bombs and drop bombs and drop bombs and they can’t really articulate, to what end? And what the president is saying is, ‘I’m willing to drop bombs’--and he’s clearly shown that he’s willing to drop bombs--’but only if it serves an objective.’ And so what he’s doing right now is taking a lot of pressure off of the world economy, the world energy economy in particular, while not giving up a single one of his gains and while preserving a lot of optionality [sic, really]. I think that’s a very good place for us to be in, but there’s uncertainty because no one can be certain what the Iranians are going to do, right?

At this point the interviewer is obviously puzzled—what’s in this for Iran?

Q: So then the message, if you’re an Iranian, the message you’re getting from the US is not, ‘Okay, we’ve settled this, you you get to keep the straight of Hormuz and we’ll try to play nice now.’ The message is, ‘Okay, we’re going to serve our self-interest by replenishing the oil coffers and get back to us in 60 days, you might have some fire and brimstone coming back down. And if you actually behave, you won’t, right?’

More gaslighting. Vance wants us to believe that the Gulf Arabs speak their minds openly and frankly—rather than parroting what they’re told to say. Further, Iran has no way to enforce their control of Hormuz—contrary to appearances.

Vance: And that’s what the president has fundamentally put out there. Now, it is interesting to me, because the Iranians have said, “We control the straits and, yeah, we’re going to let traffic flow for the next 60 days, but then we’re going to negotiate over what happens from there.” Okay? And what I find just bizarre about that assertion is that nobody from the Gulf Coast or the Gulf Coalition countries, the Arab countries in the Gulf and the Omanis--who are sort of the main Iranian theoretically partner--all of them have come out and said we don’t accept this Iranian tolling mechanism. And so the Iranians keep on asserting something that isn’t actually happening right now and they don’t have a credible pathway to make happen in the future. So I do see this as a bit of a sideshow because, fundamentally, like their arguments, what I, what I mean is the side show is what they’re saying. What will actually happen is going to be determined through a combination of negotiation, diplomatic, economic, and military leverage. What they’re saying right now for the consumption of their domestic audience really seems um, what matters is what’s gonna happen. Something that we’re working on right now.

OK, what I’ll do now is paste in Mario’s summary of the entire interview, from a tweet:

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

The vice president described the ceasefire as a window to “refill the world’s oil economy” and see where things stand in 60 days. The math behind that plan doesn’t survive a calculator…

Philip Pilkington ran the numbers.

Around 150 ships a day moved through Hormuz before the war.

Five months of closure left a hole of THOUSANDS of transits, and today’s trickle of a dozen-odd ships doesn’t begin to fill it.

You can print money, he kept repeating, but you can’t print oil.

Which is why he thinks the cheerful price on your screen is a mirage.

Futures have been crushed toward $70, yet the crack spread, the real cost refiners eat and pass to the pump, still behaves like oil trades near $100-110. Pump prices barely budged.

In his world, energy traders look at that gap the way you’d look at a magic trick you’ve already figured out.

His most provocative guess, offered as exactly that, is that China is quietly draining its massive reserves to cover America’s shortfall through the 60-day window, [but] won’t do it forever.

He also flagged a Financial Times report on trading activity tied to Trump’s orbit, thousands of trades this term.

His concern wasn’t any individual profiting, and he stressed he wasn’t accusing the administration of trading for gain.

It’s the culture: a Washington that starts thinking like day traders ends up running foreign policy on the same short-term clock.

Then, LIVE on air, Bloomberg dropped a headline that made both of us sit up: European nations now consider Iranian fees on Hormuz INEVITABLE, and are just asking Tehran not to discriminate between vessels.

The roadrunner is off the cliff, [PP] says. It just hasn’t looked down.

That last line is PP’s. He likens the US to the roadrunner—he actually means Wile E. Coyote—who has fallen for the roadrunner’s latest trick and run off the cliff. He just hasn’t looked down yet. When he does, the inevitable fall will result.

Now here are some transcripted excerpts to fill in some, but not all, of the summary.

So, China has replaced the imports with reserves. The question is, Why are they doing it? Because that’s just bailing America out. That’s using their reserves to bail America out. So I have a guess on this. It’s only a guess. America cut a deal with China when Trump went over to visit Xi on exactly this issue. The question is what China got in return. Some speculated it has to do with Taiwan, but no one knows. But more importantly, more importantly from our point of view, was the deal indefinite?

[From the Chinese side]: We’re going to wind down our reserves in China for as long as it takes you Americans to get the situation in the strait resolved. Very unlikely. Much more likely, the Americans said to the Chinese, “We’re going to do this MOU. We’re going to try and get everything resolved.” And the Chinese said, “Okay, we’ll give you 60 days and we’ll absorb it with our oil reserves and you’ll give us X in return,” whatever X is. Probably something to do with Taiwan. And that’s that.

What PP’s guess has going for it is that it reflects China’s general aversion for conflict. Recall that China was not initially fully on board with Russia’s SMO in Ukraine. Thus, while China has been extremely supportive of Iran, it would be in character for China to urge Iran to seek a negotiated settlement—against the better judgment of Iranian “hardliners”.

So my guess is the Chinese are watching Vance being interviewed and so on and having the same conversation that we’re having right now, which is: What’s going on? Is the MOU falling apart? this oil price makes no sense. There’s also a huge temptation of the Chinese to buy at this limited discount price. As I said, the real price of a barrel of oil is not $70. I don’t believe that. But, you know, it’s come down about six, 7% or something like that at the margin. You know, the speculators can be shaken out and etc, etc. A little bit of pressure can be put on the market. So, China’s reserves are going down. And the Chinese are really conservative about that sort of thing. They don’t like doing these big risky gambles of drawing down reserves. The Americans have been doing that for years since Biden, but the Chinese see it as irresponsible. So, I think the Chinese are giving Trump a grace period to try and get this deal sorted out. My guess is it’s probably the 60-day time window. I think that’s what’s going on. But what happens even in that scenario? What happens if the Iranians just say, “Nah”? The Chinese start watching these interviews and they’re like, “What is this?” Like, “What what are we doing? This is all fake.” I don’t know if it is or not, but I wouldn’t be surprised if those conversations are being had in in Tehran right now.

Now, the interesting counterpoint to that is that Galibaf, the fairly hardline speaker of the house, who’s been one of the main point people on the negotiations, is out today making very conciliatory noises, saying, “Oh, no, don’t worry, and it’s all worthwhile.” And everything like that. But if you understand politics, you’ll understand that, no matter how much of a hardliner you are, if you sign on to the negotiation team, it’s really in your interest for those negotiations to work. If you go back to Tehran and you say, “I’m sorry, that was a load of BS. That was a load of nonsense.” Your your political credibility takes a hit, you know, and he’s speaker of the house. So, I’m not I wouldn’t take that too far. But I can’t imagine unless the Iranians know something that we don’t know that they’re not looking at this and going like, I don’t think this deal is going to going to last.

Now we move on to Trump’s stock market trading.

PP: I think financial markets are going to break on the back of this. Look, what was the news out today about Trump’s trades, right? Come on.

Mario: What news?

PP: You know, I don’t know if you saw, today or yesterday, the big financial news is that Trump has been doing all these trades. 22,000 [equity?].

Mario: I’m not surprised like [laughter], he’s just printing money through this. So, he’s just making money.

PP: This is going to break the markets. People don’t get it. Financial markets are not going to survive this level of [crosstalk]

Mario: Do we know how much money? We know he made a trillion dollars off crypto. Do we know how much he made from these equity trades? All these trades?

PP: I don’t know. I just saw 22,000 trades. In the first term he did 587, versus 22,000? Who even has time to do 22,000 trades, man? Like, is there a hedge fund running out there or what? Like, 22,000 is a lot of trades, in what? Two years?

Mario: He did 22,000 trades in two years.

PP: Well, according to the Financial Times headline, I don’t know. Maybe. I believe them.

Mario: Just to be clear, this is just his trades, not everyone else in his orbit? Just to be clear.

PP: Maybe they’re also talking about like his immediate family or something like that. But the level of trading, I mean, the Polymarket arrests and stuff like that. One of my friends who works in DC sometimes says, ‘It’s the end of Empire and the main rule at the end of Empire is to grab everything that’s not nailed down.’ Kind of feels like that, doesn’t it?

…

They only have a limited amount of capital to play with and they can’t truly break the pricing mechanism in markets. I think what it’s done though is it’s created a culture. It’s creating a culture in DC that doing this is okay. And, for example, go back to the oil price, right? I am not accusing the Trump administration of manipulating the oil price to make money, okay? To make money on trades. That is not what’s going on. They’re manipulating the oil price because they’ve got themselves into a really sticky geopolitical situation in the Middle East. And the midterms are coming up in November and they’re desperate. That’s why. But what has changed is, the culture of this trading and stuff has made them all start thinking like hedge fund managers. And so they’re doing these really extreme things that like any economist will tell you that is bonkers, that is going to result in really bad news down the line. And and they’re doing it because they it’s like short- termism, you know, they’ve like reverted to full-on short- termist thinking. And who is a more short-term thinking than a day trader?

Now imagine running your economic policy like that. Are you terrified?

Everything seems super short term like events driven like almost like an X algorithm is running things. Scary man. I don’t I mean I some of it’s kind of like darkly funny but it’s not funny actually.

Mario: Bloomberg just reported European nations now believe some Hormuz fees are inevitable. Just came in now from Bloomberg. The title. “European nations have made peace with the fact that Iran will impose fees in the straight of Hormuz,” viewing it as quote “inevitable” and urging that Iran does not discriminate regarding which vessels must pay the fee.

And they end by going back to oil.

It’s not the [Hormuz] fees. It’s not that. It’s like how long—even if they get the strait open—how long does it take to get Middle Eastern oil capacity back up to where it was? That’s not simple. It’s not simple to turn oil wells back on. This stuff is incredibly complicated. We’re going to have some sort of an oil shortage. Now, the only question is how bad it is. And here’s a really important point to understand. To the extent that the Trump administration succeeds in driving down the oil price with this funny money stuff, that just increases demand for oil. If the price is lower, demand goes up, right? So what the US are doing by driving down the the oil price is they’re subsidizing the rest of the world with their SPR. They’re sending out cheap barrels of oil, discount, double discount, 30% off, sending it out from their SPR--for what? A couple of headlines? Very, very, very short-term thinking. Like complete opposite of China. Complete opposite. And who wins in that game?

It’s a grim picture. Trump has screwed up royally. He’s in a tight spot and nobody is inclined to help him out—not on his terms, which are unreasonable. The Chinese may have offered him a hand, but with Trump it’s always take what he can get and ask for more.

The best guess is that some sort of military action is eventually planned by the Anglo-Zionists, but for the time being the major action is concentrated on Palestine and Lebanon. There are reports that the US is seeking to regain control over Iraq via its government, but that sounds like a very difficult and longer term project (disarming Shiite militias). The biggest questions of all have to do with Russian and Chinese plans. All in all, this really does look like WW3.

In the meantime, Chris Martenson continues to warn about the oil reserve situation for the US. I’ve included links to brief video clips which expand on each paragraph.

Chris Martenson @chrismartenson

Jun 30

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created in 1974 after the 1973 oil embargo to protect against emergencies (smart move!). It hasn’t been this low since 1983. The question is: how low can it go?

Full report: https://peakprosperity.pulse.ly/4dkhq5smz4

Based on current weekly drawdowns of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and how much needs to be left to prevent permanent damage, the U.S. can last until October 4 before running out of oil.

Full report: https://peakprosperity.pulse.ly/cysjcv35bp

If we do a responsible drawdown of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, we have until October 4 before the U.S. runs out of oil. If the Department of War minimums are observed (which allocates 243 million barrels for military-use only), then we only have until July 10.

Full report: https://peakprosperity.pulse.ly/x80rkeo8ec

Chris Martenson @chrismartenson

18h

If the U.S. is comfortable destroying its ability to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it could eke things out until March 2027. If not, we could run out any time between July 10 and October 4 if our current situation doesn’t change.

To hear why I think all of this is intentional, or to talk about this with me and other members at Peak Prosperity, click below:

But... it gets worse.

As it turns out, 243 million barrels are allocated to the Department of War. If that DoW minimum is observed, then we only have 17 million barrels left, which could run out as early as July 10.

Full report: https://peakprosperity.pulse.ly/29dm89as3m

Disclose.tv @disclosetv

15h

JUST IN - Trump weighs a return to “all-out war with Iran.” Conversations have revolved around whether the U.S. should abandon negotiations and resume full-scale attacks against Iran or stick with diplomatic talks for now — WSJ

After losing two wars in less than a year, Trump is now losing the MOU “ceasefire”. Iran is controlling Hormuz—as specified in the agreement that Trump signed but is now trying to ignore. Most of the oil that’s exiting the Persian Gulf is Iranian oil headed to China. Trump thought he’d be clever by sneaking a handful of tankers through Hormuz under massive air support.

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC has grounded a foreign container ship in the Strait of Hormuz US-backed Omani corridor after not using Iran’s approved route, per Iranian state TV.

Iran says it has “repeatedly warned captains, shipowners and officials of shipping companies around the world that any entry or exit through routes other than the ‘Route of Authority’ in the Persian Gulf could lead to irreparable incidents.”

Matt Bracken @Matt_Bracken48

3h

[Trump signed it, and Iran means it.]

Here’s what passes for “all out war”:

Daniel Davis Deep Dive @DanielLDavis1

37m

This is either a pathetic show of force, that literally scares no one, – – or worse, – – it’s evidence that our senior leaders are still painfully unaware of the limitations of our power in the Persian Gulf region.

If we attempt to use any of these forces against Iran, we will suffer heavy casualties, and we will still fail to break the SOH loose from Iranian control.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender

According to a release from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the USS Boxer (LHD 4) and USS Portland (LPD 27) are now operating in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). Additionally, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is embarked on the Boxer as the amphibious ready group, which includes the USS Comstock (LSD-45), operates in the CENTCOM AOR.

None of this is a plan. It seems Trump thought he had a plan—do whatever Jewish Nationalists tell him to do. We actually have that in writing now:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

5h

It proves what we’ve been saying since a while: U.S. Bases in Arab countries are vital for Israel’s expansion & hegemony in the region.

*reminder: The U.S. war on Iran is mainly a war for Israel.

Bloody Eh! @FrailtyX007

5h

Iran’s war is the political salvo toward encircling Central Asia, weakening Turkey, Pakistan, & ultimately isolating China & Russia. This is a long strategic geopolitical movement by the Western/Zionist hemisphere for a bigger future conflict.

So, with that background in Anglo-Zionist fantasy, Vance turned up to debunk any notion that this administration has a plan—except that we won’t live up to any agreement we sign:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

3h

NEW:  Vice president JD Vance accidentally admitted that the US is using the agreement with Iran to refill some stocks and stabilize world’s oil economy then to attack again:

“So I think what the president has told us to do is use this MOU to sort of refill the world’s oil economy, to refill some stocks, and then to see where the hand is.”

Where the hand is, is that two wars have been lost and more of the same won’t work. Rather, it will blow up in our faces—economically and militarily. And the notion that “stocks” [of oil] are being refilled would be delusional if it weren’t a patent lie.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Jun 30

If this is just aimed at suppressing oil futures prices while crack spreads blow out and Trump tries to talk down retail price on Truth Social in a desperate gambit to firm up support for the GOP in November this is one of the most bizarre series of happenings I’ve ever seen.

zerohedge @zerohedge

WTI Crude vs 321 crack spread. Trump about to bomb refiners

Prof Pape pointing to what should be obvious:

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

Jun 30

Diplomacy fails, oil inventory clock ticks, and the trap snaps

No surprise: US/Iran talks fail to launch in Doha. Meanwhile,

Speaker Johnson floats a new 60-day congressional leash for more war

With ceasefire collapsing, the region is caught in a deepening escalation trap

23h 

Hormuz traffic today is far below the 130 ships a day prewar and more importantly

Not enough to stop the oil inventory draw down, or Iran’s growing leverage.

And specifically addressing Vance:

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

5h

This is exactly why Iran is upping the ante on Hormuz shipping

Iran is not done winning yet and

Not deterred from using force to keep its grip on Hormuz

Iran survived — and that changed everything

And if Bessent thinks Dollar Dominance is assured … Let me add, first, that while this move is aimed in part at China, China doesn’t really care Japan and India do on their own. But I guarantee that Trump and Bessent care. The currency being sidelined between these two major economic entities isn’t the yuan, it’s the USD.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN: In a direct hit to the US dollar, Japan and India are considering direct trading in national currencies, yen-rupee settlements, per Nikkei

So, yesterday we saw Trump proclaiming that Iran was asking—’begging’, we were supposed to believe—for a meeting. Of course, if that had been true, which it wasn’t, why would Iran have canceled the scheduled meeting in Switzerland in the first place? The truth of the matter, of course, was that the US asked for a meeting.

The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport

2h

BREAKING: Qatar’s Foreign Ministry just openly contradicted Trump’s claim of a scheduled Doha meeting with Iran — confirming that while U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators, no high-level meeting between American and Iranian officials is planned, per Al Jazeera.

Trump had posted earlier on Truth Social: “IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!”

Trump’s market manipulation trick!!

The Iranian response was that there would be no meetings until the US complied with the MOU, and the supposed “meeting” in Doha turned out to simply be the US people meeting with third parties. Apparently the US side was handed a written demand from Iran requiring that the US comply with the commitments contained in the MOU. The implication seems to be that, without that compliance, the MOU’s 60 day ceasefire may run without further negotiations. Trump made promises, in writing, and Iran won’t accept any switcheroo.

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

 Iran just handed the U.S. a wish list before it’ll even show up to talk again.

Top of it is the Strait of Hormuz. Full control, no exceptions.

Next is billions in frozen funds. Iran wants them back, usable, with no strings attached.

Then there’s Lebanon. Not a decrease in Israeli attacks, but a verified end to them.

And the nuclear program stays off the table entirely, according to Tehran’s hardliners.

Trump claimed that talks resume today in Doha. Iran’s deputy FM says no negotiation is planned, just talks with Qatari officials.

Nearly 3/4 of Iran’s powerful clerical body just signed off on red lines for their negotiators.

No nuclear talks. No Hormuz concessions. No sanctions relief without ironclad guarantees first.

It’s a high-stakes geopolitical standoff. And Iran isn’t showing any signs of backing down.

Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Michael

Here’s Prof Pape:

Hormuz traffic clearly going the wrong way for the world’s economy

Iran survived and that changed everything

And puts Iran in the driver’s seat

Diplomacy fails, oil inventory clock ticks, and the trap snaps

No surprise: US/Iran talks fail to launch in Doha. Meanwhile,

Speaker Johnson floats a new 60-day congressional leash for more war

With ceasefire collapsing, the region is caught in a deepening escalation trap

Pape maintains that war will start up again, in an escalated mode. I question whether he’s taking into account the full extent of the pressure Trump is under from multiple directions and multiple players—Iran, yes, but also Russia and China, in addition to the looming economic crisis. I also question whether the US military is in condition to resume war. We’ll find out soon enough.

Patarames @Pataramesh

5h

Iran countered that option [the Israeli claim that they’re ready to resume war on Iran] by patiently depleting missile-defense interceptors, conveniently launching it’s legacy Ghadr missiles etc.

Unsatisfying for Pro-Iran folks to not see scenes like in Operation True Promise 2

 But it created a massive military/political leverage

Meanwhile, Trump is trying to jawbone the price of gas at the pump in a downward direction, while also urging Americans to pile into the stock market to keep the bubble inflated. And Bessent, clearly protesting too much, assures the world that Dollar Dominance will never end.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

21h

“Strait is Open” op is now dead - except on Bloomberg or whatever. Reports suggest Iranian leadership say technical talks aren’t even on this week. Gasoline prices are rallying but to the extent prices have been held down, they’ll only empty inventories quicker over the summer.

Expect reserves - both commercial and strategic - to drain pretty rapidly at these fake prices.

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo

 Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back to the same level as it was during the wartime period

The MoU signed in Switzerland raised it from approximately 5-10 vessels a day to 15-20

Before the war, around 150-200 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

8h

Bloomberg is trying to convince me this morning that Oman control half the Strait of Hormuz. Note to the editor: the internet exists.

Oman is simply straddling the fence. Iran controls the strait, just as it says in the MOU.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

8h

Oil futures probably have an impact on prices at the margin and in the very short-term, but to a very large extent prices are dictated by supply and demand. The only thing Trump can do to stop “gouging” is price caps which will rapidly create shortages.

zerohedge @zerohedge

14h

Trump raging against crack spreads. Refiners may be short here

It’s never a good look when a POTUS just openly lies to people, who know better. And Americans, by and large, do know better. The poll numbers aren’t lying.

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

57m

Is this what he meant by the specter of communism being upon us again? Lol. We truly live in a post-Truth society. Ironic, that such post-truths are being posted on “Truth” Social. He should’ve named the company “My Truth Social.”

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

5h

If this is just aimed at suppressing oil futures prices while crack spreads blow out and Trump tries to talk down retail price on Truth Social in a desperate gambit to firm up support for the GOP in November this is one of the most bizarre series of happenings I’ve ever seen.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

One Oil Tanker visible in the US corridor this morning.

Heavy Air cover is active 24/7. A very costly operation.

Pathetic, but also unsustainable.

gato fumante @KweenInYellow

13h

Routine destruction of Palestinian roads and water infrastructure in the Occupied West Bank, featuring the armored D9 Caterpiller produced in East Peoria, Illinois and provided free of charge using our taxpayer dollars.

One last reminder, because Russia—and not just China—is very much engaged in this Anglo-Zionist war on Iran. Talking to Judge Nap this morning, Prof Mearsheimer makes the point that, while Putin may have been fooled into believing that Trump sincerely wanted to work toward a realistic peace. Mearsheimer, speaking of Putin’s recent statements, argues that Putin may be about to take the gloves off in new ways. But, from my standpoint, and just as importantly, what is happening with the open NATO war on Russia has probably convinced the Chinese that Putin was right all along—that he had no option except to launch his Special Military Option. The Chinese don’t like war, but what they’re seeing from Trump may be opening their eyes to the necessity of preparing for war. I’ll admit that I’m astonished that Putin should have been this naive, but Mearsheimer makes a strong argument:

Prof: And when people talk about the spirit of Anchorage, and again, we’re putting aside whether there were any concrete agreements, the “spirit of Anchorage” was all about the fact that Trump wanted to improve relations with Putin. And what happened at Anchorage was seen as a major step in that direction. And I think all the evidence is that Putin bought into this and Putin was willing to work with Trump up until recently to try and work out some sort of deal that would put an end to the war in Ukraine. I think what’s happening now is that the Russians understand that Trump is no friend, that Trump is an adversary, and that Trump is basically joined at the hip with the Europeans and with the Ukrainians, and those three are doing everything they can to bring Russia down as a great power. So, I think the Russians are mad as hornets now. And this is why I say if you have a situation where we accelerate these drone attacks on Russia you are playing with fire.

Judge: Yes. I mean you could add to your list there that Trump is waging war. Trump is a co-elligerant against Russia with the military arms we’re supplying and the intelligence that we are providing for aiming them.

Prof: Absolutely. I mean, this talk that the United States is a mediator is nonsense.

I also liked Mearsheimer’s response to Jake Sullivan’s suggestion that maybe Trump didn’t understand the MOU that he signed. Mearsheimer is basically arguing that what we see going on with Trump’s current gamesmanship is not some sort of masterful multi-dimensional chess before a new blitzkrieg—it’s a worm squirming to try to get off the hook. The war is over and we lost, that’s what Mearsheimer is saying. Trump can’t change that fact because the Iranians are fully aware of it.

I actually think this is all nonsense. I think that basically [Sullivan is] arguing that we were fleeced, that it was inexperience that produced this document, this surrender document. It wasn’t the fact that we were fleeced. [The MOU] reflected the balance of coercive power. Look, those documents that were floated around before we reached an agreement on the final memorandum of understanding on June 17th and the final is almost the same as the initial that [Iran] proposed. But you know, we proposed a counter document, right? There were a number of documents floating around. There were endless negotiations on these documents. I find it hard to believe that we didn’t look over every word. And the reason that we had to swallow all of these provisions that were to Iran’s advantage and our disadvantage was because the balance of coercive power decisively favored the Iranians.

Trump is a loser, the worm on the hook, and he’s trying to gaslight us.

• First, it inherently made no real sense to me, given the documented exhaustion of the most critical US weapons systems prior to the MOU ceasefire. Further, the reliable reports of massive devastation to US bases in the region—and especially to radar installations that would be critical for any renewed air campaign—also made this seem unlikely to me.

• Second, Trump’s acknowledged reason for signing Iran’s terms for the MOU was that he wanted to avoid a worldwide depression—and starting a new phase of this war on an even larger scale would inevitably precipitate exactly that result.

Now, these reports are being spread by the Tehran Times, which is considered to be a pro-Islamic Republic outlet. Nevertheless, I just couldn’t buy off on this and suspected that these flights were removing equipment from the region.

This morning Larry Johnson is reporting that this is exactly what’s going on. According to LJ, Hegseth signed the order five days ago for the withdrawal of US military assets that had been shifted into the region in preparation for the attack on Iran. The exact scope of this redeployment isn’t clear—it could be a full withdrawal, but is more likely to be partial, and so far doesn’t appear to affect the naval presence. But, accepting the scale of the air transport traffic, what’s going on must be significant. Of course, this would be in accordance with the terms of the MOU that call for a pullback of US military forces from proximity to Iran. But, given the reach of Iran’s missile forces, redeployment within the region is problematic. This move also appears to be ahead of schedule, that is, sooner that required in the MOU, but this also makes sense in terms of the logistical personnel problems (including morale) associated with maintaining large forward deployments in a debilitating climate where the basing structure has been decimated.

This is an important development, as we discussed on June 27th:

Any withdrawal of significant forces will greatly weaken the Anglo-Zionist strategic position—and yet from a logistics/supply standpoint the maintenance of those forces in the region has to be considered untenable. That’s especially the case because of the continuing danger of a resumption of Iranian attacks on US bases as well as the strain on fuel, munitions, and personnel. In other words, slowly but surely the US is being pushed to the margins of the region. The regional states know what this means and are quietly beginning to make “other arrangements” with Iran.

Now, as we’ve also been arguing ever since the MOU was signed, Trump’s and the Anglo-Zionists’ tactic is fairly clear. Trump was forced to sign the MOU on Iran’s terms due to the prospect of a looming economic crisis—Trump himself termed it the prospect of “a worldwide depression.” That’s dire. The gamble here was that by offering Iran a carrot—the prospect that Iran would gain immediate and massive financial benefits from resumed export of oil and petrochemicals—Trump would be able to, in effect, induce Iran to make concessions regarding the terms of the MOU. This was especially true in three key areas:

• Termination or modification of Iran’s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon,

• Allowance for a continued US role in Hormuz and retraction of Iran’s fee system, and

• Iran’s agreement to US terms regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Regarding Hezbollah, Iran has not yet struck at Israel, despite Israel’s continuing massive attacks on Lebanon. I’ve seen this reported at several sites:

Alex Jones @RealAlexJones

12h

Israel just carried out what experts say is one of the largest single warhead explosions in modern military history, destroying a village in south Lebanon under the rubric of demolishing tunnels. The massive blast registered on seismic monitors and was heard in Israel.

Nevertheless, Iran is likely biding its time.

Iran is also holding firm on its control over Hormuz. As we also reported on June 27:

“Stabilizing the management of the Strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation for damages, returning frozen assets, lifting sanctions, and the withdrawal of the US from the region are among the inviolable demands of the leadership and the people, which must be pursued while preserving the honor and dignity of the Iranian nation.

Any negligence in this regard will definitely be met with the reaction of the nation.” — Iran’s Assembly of Experts

We also reported at the same time that Iran was considering completely canceling the technical talks in Switzerland scheduled for June 28-29 following yesterday’s US strikes on Sirik in southern Iran. Ominously, there were also reports that Iran was considering canceling all further negotiations during the 60 day MOU period.

So, this morning tweeted out this BS:

Trump wants you to believe that Iran buckled to some unspecified demand of his, or maybe this is just to juice the markets—which definitely need some juicing:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

7h

Prediction markets think the Strait won’t reopen this summer. Only professional financial market journalists and trading algorithms disagree at this stage.

No normalization of Hormuz by the end of July—which, IMO, is a very real possibility—would be a complete disaster for Trump, and for the world economy. Normalization of Hormuz was what Trump signed the MOU for. His attempts to circumvent the terms of what he signed is jeopardizing the economy.

Here’s what really happened.

Iran did, in fact, cancel the meeting in Switzerland. That meeting was supposed to involve technical experts and nuclear issues would be raised. As we’ve seen, Iran’s Council of Experts exploded over this—as well as over continued US ceasefire violations in Hormuz. Instead there will be a meeting in Doha, Qatar, but that meeting will involve no technical experts and will instead focus solely on US ceasefire violations:

Axios reports Washington and Tehran have also agreed to stop attacking each other. The two sides are set to meet in Doha on June 30 to discuss the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

In other words, it’s back to square one.

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Axios’ claim of US-Iran technical talks in Doha this week, stating “technical working group meetings are not planned for this week” and that any next round will only be held “once all conditions are met,” per Tasnim.

Iran reiterates these conditions include Israel withdrawing from Lebanon, ending its military operations there and the release of frozen Iranian funds.

Iran appears to be insisting that talks are off until the US complies with the terms of the MOU. Guess what? Time is on Iran’s side. They’re earning large sums by shipping to China and are in no hurry for any sort of “final agreement”—which may never happen. Trump remains over a barrel and Iran is calling the shots.

DubaiPoopTrucks @DubaiPoopTrucks

14h

Iran can keep this up indefinitely having survived crippling sanctions and forced global isolation for decades now. Meanwhile each week this continues the west descends deeper and deeper towards economic catastrophe. All Trump has to do is cut off Israel and it’s over like that.

So that’s where that stands. But there’s worse going on for Trump.

The recent major price hikes by Apple on iPhones and other popular devices was a major inflation shock. Apparently (according to LJ) Apple has confirmed that those price hikes came due to the shortage of helium coming out of the Persian Gulf. Helium is necessary for the manufacture of chips used in all those devices. The helium shortage as a result of Trump’s crazy war gamble is real, and it’s biting. But guess who has helium? China. So, now we read these two items:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for approval to source memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies, a Chinese chipmaker on the Pentagon’s blacklist over alleged ties to the Chinese military, according to FT.

Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara

 BREAKING: The China Report confirms Beijing just slammed massive export restrictions on major US defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

Washington is panicking as China brilliantly cuts off vital rare earth materials.

Trump’s trade war is a total disaster.

And this:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

7h

Buffett seems to be betting markets are about to crash. Maybe the all-hands-on-deck attempt to get oil prices down is to try to put a floor under a very wobbly stock market and economy? 

Quote

Barchart @Barchart

14h

Warren Buffett is waiting for a bigger drop in stocks  He says March was “nothing ”.

And lastly—this caught my eye the other day:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Putin seems to have just said he’s taking Odessa and the entire coastline.

Policy Tensor @policytensor

10h

Novorossiya? 

In case you’re wondering …

… in the first 5 months of 2026, total gold imports rose +76% YoY, to +692 tonnes.

And, yes, that’s a lot of gold. I wonder how much came from the US, a leading exporter of gold?

Onward.

It’s difficult to understand what’s going on—from Trump’s side of things. Trump was unusually forthright in explaining why he accepted the 60-day MOU on Iranian terms. He was simply forced to do it, as he explained, to prevent a worldwide depression. But since then Trump has done very little to hold off that eventuality. Specifically, he has continued to attempt to assert an American role in managing Hormuz and that has kept oil flow at low levels, while US reserves go down. In other words, everything he does seems calculated to bring about the worldwide depression he claims he wants to avoid. I get that Dollar Dominance is key to his whole agenda and that domination of energy in its most fundamental form, oil, is the key to maintaining Dollar Dominance. Nevertheless, this looks like an incredible gamble—how does this graph indicate a strategy to keep King Dollar on his throne, when we all know there’s no hope of a military solution?

You get the idea—there was never enough of a “gusher” (Trump’s claim) to make much of a difference to the energy supply situation. The US has been attempting to sneak a few ships out of the Persian Gulf by hugging the Omani coastline, in lieu of an attempted military takeover of Hormuz, but Iran continues to assert it’s control—including over Omani waters. Concerning which, I have to agree with Will Schryver (contra MoA):

Will Schryver @imetatronink

18h

As though Oman has any meaningful say in the matter.

I guarantee Oman has essentially told Iran: “We will continue to publicly suck up to the Americans until you drive them out, and then we will fall in line with whatever you say.”

Oman is not a principal actor in this play.

Alex Plitsas @alexplitsas

21h

Omani officials have confirmed to me just now that their position is no to mandatory fees or tolls in the strait of Hormuz in line with international maritime freedom of navigation despite any statements coming from Tehran or press reports to the contrary

Meanwhile, Trump is attempting to wiggle out of the Lebanon connected provisions of the MOU while launching strikes on Iran on a semi-regular basis—in violation of the MOU. He has also gone back to what look like genocidal threats:

These US attempts to “guide” a few vessels out of the Gulf are simply absurd, as Christ Martenson points out:

Chris Martenson @chrismartenson

21h

The US put a full, and I mean FULL escort package on a single tanker. Probably 10x cheaper to just pay the Iranian toll, no?

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

The U.S. just sent a tanker through the Omani waters corridor with everything overhead

AWACS, fighter jets, MQ-4C Triton drone, P-8 Poseidon out of Bahrain, full air cover package.

It’s basically a proof of concept with an audience. Washington is demonstrating that it can move oil through the Strait regardless of what Iran says or does about it and doing so with enough firepower overhead to make the point impossible to miss.

The corridor either holds or it doesn’t and the whole world is watching this particular tanker find out.

It’s obvious that this absurd situation can’t continue. Time is on Iran’s—and, by the way, China’s—side. Iran and China have taken full advantage of the 60 day period already. Art Berman makes complete common sense:

Art Berman @aeberman12

12h

The oil market’s calm is misleading says @chrismartenson.

Keeping Hormuz “de-normalized” is Iran’s strategy.

The longer uncertainty persists, the more bargaining leverage shifts away from Washington.

What doesn’t make sense is that everything Trump does plays directly into Iran’s strategy. And Berman adds:

Art Berman @aeberman12

Trump says the U.S. may “finish the job” militarily.

Nonsense.

What changed?

The first 40 days brought roughly 15,000 strikes without forcing Iran to capitulate.

More of the same isn’t a strategy—it’s posturing.

And bullshit.

Again, it simply plays into Iran’s—and probably China’s—strategy. This isn’t rocket science. And it does recall Tucker’s interview with Danny Davis. Remember, Tucker talked to Trump 8x before the sneak attack. He insists that Trump is smart and not demented, and that every angle of this crazy war was explained to him. And yet he decided to roll the dice with all the odds against him? Or so it seems.

OK. So this was the point where I threw up my hands and went outside to install some little devices to attract hummingbirds and do some weeding. When I came back I listened to economist Chris Martenson chatting with Mario Nawfal. Martenson strikes me as an intelligent guy. The hour long conversation covered all sorts of topics, but the core of it was simply trying to make sense out of this whole Iran situation that doesn’t make much, if any, sense at all.

To start with things that don’t make sense. The US continues to burn through the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Estimates as to how long before we run out vary according to the underlying assumptions. Martenson says the realistic estimates run from two weeks to a max of fourteen weeks. And Trump doesn’t appear to be doing a thing to remedy that situation—except to tell his base that the price at the pump for gasoline should be $2.25. Which leads to the question: Why is the price of oil going down when the fundamentals of supply and demand dictate a sharp increase? In the face of those fundamentals, Martenson tells us:

… the data is pretty clear right now. So, managed money is a group of participants, and they are now the most bearish on oil they’ve ever been. They hold about $19 billion of shorts on the Brent contract alone when the normal number would be bouncing between two and five, right? So, it’s like this massive increase in that our prime ETF for oil, USO, has 93% of its total outstanding float, all the shares out are short right now. This isn’t just like kind of short. We’re talking GameStop level short. This is like, if it goes the other way, mad scramble. So, the question is, well, who’s doing all this shorting?

I’m in the camp that believes there’s an invisible hand at play here. That our government uses markets as signaling devices at this point in time and that they do intervene.

The reality remains:

We’re still missing 8-9 million barrels a day. We have this little flush of oil that’s going to come out of the the Gulf. But that’s like a one-time flush. And, by the way, a lot of evidence suggests that the tankers that are leaving are bee-lining for China right now. And it’s mostly Iranian oil that they’ve allowed through. But that’s it. So we’re still short many millions of barrels of oil per day. The price should be skyrocketing. Inventories are declining. That should be sending price signals and it hasn’t so far.

All of this is very much in Iran’s—and China’s—favor. Iran only has to sit back and wait while Trump implodes the US economy—along with that of much of the rest of the world. A renewed military campaign would only make all of the above much worse, as Iran would promptly target Persian Gulf oil production infrastructure.

I have no real explanation—beyond that of a desperate gamble to save Dollar Dominance. That theory has Bessent’s recent public statements on the topic in its favor. If you’re looking for something else—and I’m very open to something else—here’s Martenson taking a stab at an explanation:

The way I see the dots connecting right now, it looks like the West is under sustained attack, right? You remember that WEF video that came out in 2016. ‘You’ll own nothing and be happy,’ right? The WEF told us that by 2030, Western values will have been tested to the breaking point. … And then everything that’s happened since then, where you see all this mass immigration … Where you see we had no borders in the United States. … You see the thing where all the trans stuff has come along where suddenly it’s confusing if you can even like have autonomy over what gender you are, if parents have any rights. Just look at all these things. Those are Western values, right? Private property, privacy, the ability to control what goes in my own body. So the vaccine mandates cut against that strong, etc. Science, male is male, female female, biology. That’s a basic assault on what you call your ground reality, right? Just erase it. But that’s how that’s how you break a culture, right? Is you attack the pillars, the family, faith, trust, right? Those are all the things I see under assault right now. Well, if I wanted to really wreck the United States and I was in charge, I would have us drain our SPR and then slam us into $250 barrel oil as fast as possible. That’s what I would do. It would be exceedingly devastating.

So, all of these policies that the WEF has been talking about are basically unfolding at this point in time. And look, we’re going to get a Great Reset whether we ask for it or not, right? Our debt levels are at a level now that’s basically unfundable. Anybody who even studies it for 5 minutes figures it out, right? Oh, we’ll never pay this back. Okay, if we’re never going to pay our debts back, what are the options? Well, you either default on it. That’s bad. The whole system kind of breaks. Or you inflate it away. But we’re running out of room to really inflate it away without it just getting away from us. So if a Great Reset’s going to happen, if it’s going to burst, well, why not be on the controlling side of that story rather than just on the receiving side? And so I think that’s the plan. They’re like, look, we got ourselves into a bit of a pickle here. There’s no real way out of it. It’s not a problem. Problems have solutions. It’s a predicament. What do you do?

Well, it must be super attractive to think that we’re this close to creating sort of a God-in-a-box, Super AI, that could help us parse through all of this and really manage it well. But if you strip away, AI is just communism with the promise that this time we’ll have better planning committees. It’s the same idea. A very tiny elite controlling all the decisions for everybody else with the conceit that the elites are in possession of better information, better intelligence, better brains, better genetics, whatever they think they have compared to everybody else. So, that’s where we’re going. Talk to any economist who knows anything. They’ll admit it. They’re like, “Yeah, the United States has no intention ever of paying its government debts back. It just doesn’t. Never will. It’s going to roll them over continuously and make them larger every year. Full stop.”

So I just get the sense that there is something really big coming. Then there’s this energy thing which just doesn’t make sense and then there’s these mysterious policies that seem to be designed to really displace the entire cultures of the West. So to me that’s how I have to fit this whole Iran war into that construct and say, okay, if these people are string pullers, if they have been very carefully laying the groundwork to do this Western deconstruction project, how does Iran fit into that? And there is nothing like an energy shock to really wobble a nation or a continent.

I have this gnawing sense that I’m missing a puzzle piece here. There’s something happening here that I can’t explain. It’s illogical, right? It just makes no sense for Trump to send the tweets out that he is while negotiators are trying to do some very delicate work. It makes no sense to have done the decapitation strike as we did in the beginning. None of this makes any sense at this point.

The negative space in this story is, ‘Where’s China?’ They’re like so quiet on this. It doesn’t make any sense. And they’re obviously one of the more impacted players in this whole thing. And very few public statements.

Those are the fundamentals—along with the realization of military defeat and the exhaustion of resources. Most of this has been hidden from the American people, but they’ll be learning about it:

Trump, under the direction and control of fanatical Jewish Nationalists, continues to extract face saving revisions to the MOU’s tough terms. For example, he has coerced Lebanon’s puppet government to concede to an Israeli military presence in Lebanon—as if that fulfills the MOU demand that Lebanese sovereignty be honored. He also continues to try to maintain a US presence around Hormuz, even striking at Iran yesterday after Iran struck a vessel that wasn’t conforming to its dictates.

This won’t change what’s inevitable. The phony deal with a toothless Lebanese government won’t deter Hezbollah, or Iran. I even doubt that the Israeli goal of inducing a civil war in Lebanon between the government and Hezbollah—openly stated as a goal by Israeli 13—will materialize. The Lebanese military is in no condition to take on Hezbollah. Nor is Syria’s ISIS government in such a position. These are efforts to induce chaos to reduce pressure on Israel, which is suffering another disaster in south Lebanon, but my guess is that the interests of influential regional powers—Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, even Pakistan—will prevail over those of the Anglo-Zionists.

Regarding the recent military activity at Hormuz, I’ll cite Larry Johnson’s conclusion from last night:

The Shooting in the Strait Ain’t over, But…

Instead of marking a return to war, this exchange of fire can best be categorize as military political theater. I believe that Iran, thanks to intel from the Russians or the Chinese, has learned that the US has issued orders that will initiate the return to CONUS of the aircraft, vehicles and troops that had been deployed to the region in preparation for the 28 February attack. Because of the limited damage inflicted by the US attack, I believe that Iran chose to respond in a limited fashion rather than escalate and run the risk of the US cancelling the redeployment order.

For now, Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz and ships wanting to transit the Strait are adhering to Iran’s new policy.

Two points.

First, Iran did respond with its own strike at US bases, but the most recent reports are that Iran underlined, as it were, its position in control of Hormuz by once again striking a non-compliant ship:

Iran Responds With Drone Attack On Bahrain, Another Hit On Ship In Hormuz

In other words, Iran remains undeterred and is insisting on its understanding of the MOU, no matter Trump’s attempts at revision. But Iran isn’t simply accepting this as “theater”. The fact is that what matters most to Iran is actual control over Hormuz—not any “final agreement” that they know they wouldn’t be able to count on, anyway. Thus:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

49m

“Stabilizing the management of the Strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation for damages, returning frozen assets, lifting sanctions, and the withdrawal of the US from the region are among the inviolable demands of the leadership and the people, which must be pursued while preserving the honor and dignity of the Iranian nation.

Any negligence in this regard will definitely be met with the reaction of the nation.” — Iran’s Assembly of Experts

The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter

BREAKING: Iranian negotiators are considering completely canceling the technical talks in Switzerland scheduled for June 28-29 following yesterday’s US strikes on Sirik in southern Iran, per Iran Nuances.

The negotiators believe the “blatant violation of Article 1 of the MoU” must be responded to by halting all negotiations, including the rest of the 60-day period.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

Jun 26

Many think the MOU means peace has arrived. This is a mistake

The MOU simply moves the battlefield to negotiations

Iran wants power, not just money for “performance”

HFI Research @HFI_Research

20h

Following the US attack, the Southern lane is eerily quiet. My analysis of the situation is that IRGC will implement a full closure on the Oman route. The US will have to retaliate.

This back and forth is unlikely to resolve itself. The issue for the US is now that $12 billion has already been released, and Iran got both the cargoes they need and the 40 million bbls out of the Gulf of Oman; the balance shifts against the US.

…

The IRGC retailiated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It’s a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.

On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.

In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it’s a question of what the US does after.

I think this is only the beginning.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

7h

US-led JMIC & UKMTO continue to ask vessels to use their “safe” corridor... they’re insisting, testing Iran’s reactions, but at the end Iran will regain full control of the strait, or they’re ready to return to war for it.

Now, the second point is potentially by far the most important. Johnson has been reporting—as we saw above—that orders have been issued for the withdrawal of at least significant parts of the US military buildup that took place before the February 28th attack on Iran. Any withdrawal of significant forces will greatly weaken the Anglo-Zionist strategic position—and yet from a logistics/supply standpoint the maintenance of those forces in the region has to be considered untenable. That’s especially the case because of the continuing danger of a resumption of Iranian attacks on US bases as well as the strain on fuel, munitions, and personnel. In other words, slowly but surely the US is being pushed to the margins of the region. The regional states know what this means and are quietly beginning to make “other arrangements” with Iran. For example:

The Cradle @TheCradleMedia

Iran & UAE to resume flights starting 1 July

——

Iran and the United Arab Emirates will resume flights between the two countries starting 1 July after aviation authorities from both sides issued the necessary operating permits, according to Majid Akhavan, spokesman for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization.

…

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

8h

UAE replace the adjective “terrorist” they use in their statements condemning Iranian attacks by “hostile”. I guess it’s due to improvement in their relations.

Everything is changing, and Trump can’t control it.

But Jewish Nationalists continue to work the levers of power in DC, threatening a resumption of war on Iran. Who thinks this can work?

Tom Cotton just said Arab nations aren’t begging for peace. They’re asking President Trump for targeting info so they can join the fight against Iran.

“LOL” hardly begins to describe one’s reaction to this level of gaslighting. Or how about this?

It seems to me that events are closing in on Trump. This can’t continue for too much longer. Past Labor Day?

Tucker Talks Trump

The actual title of the Danny Davis video interview told the story of what has Tucker really concerned: TUCKER CARLSON: What’s Driving US Actions in Iran & Ukraine Wars. Tucker is very concerned that we’re cruising toward war with the most powerful nuclear power in the world, the world power with a treasure house of natural resources, the world power with a battle hardened military with conventional weaponry beyond US abilities to counter in the form of hypersonic missiles. I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday on the Russia aspect of the Tucker interview:

On Russia--It’s a “Neocon” war:

So here we see that “Neocon” is a very obvious codeword for Jewish Nationalists. It’s no secret that the entire Neocon movement was concocted by Jewish former Trots, who still direct and fund it. The line about “ancient grudges” against Russia is an absolute giveaway (which I’ve discussed at great length). Tucker professes, as usual, to have no clue as to the goal of the war on Russia, but then tells us exactly what that goal is:

“The Neocon lobby has kept this war alive. I don’t know what their goal is. I think they want to break up Russia for a bunch of different reasons. Reasons of avarice and ancient grudges mostly, but they want to break up Russia and steal its resources. Of course, the Russians know this. They talk about it constantly. It’s also true. And the result is that Europe is on the brink of like a nuclear exchange.”

“[Russia is] not a gas station with nuclear weapons and anyone who says that like John McCain’s a freaking idiot or Keith Kellogg, one of the dumbest people I’ve ever talked to. I said to Trump, “This guy’s so dumb. And that’s your envoy.” And he’s like, “Well, not really, but sort of.” And that was just a sop to the Neocons, right? Keith Kellogg is like this elderly violence worshipper whose daughter I think works for the Ukrainian or whatever his motives are. But like he can be controlled by the war lobby [Jewish Nationalists] and that’s why they wanted him there. And Trump didn’t think it was a big deal to have Keith Kellogg there. Like he doesn’t think it’s a big deal to have Huckabee in Jerusalem. But it is a big deal. Actually your envoys matter a lot.”

Finally Tucker comes clean—he’s gonna stop “pretending”. Sort of. “The same people” who lobbied for war on Russia also lobbied for war on Iran, and “they” control Little Marco. It’s the “Neocons”.

“I don’t want to pretend. I know that where we are now is the product of lobbying by the same people who lobbied for the war with Iran. They control Marco Rubio. Obviously, that’s why he’s Secretary of State. That’s the only reason. ... He’s not a diplomat. He’s a tool of neocon donors, of course, as he’s always been.”

And more on “that same dedicated group of people”. That “same dedicated group of people” are out to destroy Amalek, er, Europe and Western civilization, and Tucker previously identified them as “Israelis.”

“So the whole thing is backwards. Americans don’t understand it, and they don’t because the same dedicated group of people have been lying to them and have their lawmakers in armlocks to force them to do their will, and their will is contrary to our interests and could wind up—I just want to say it again—destroying the center of Western civilization. Which is not the United States or Canada or Australia or New Zealand—those are outposts—but Western Europe. That’s the center of the whole culture, the whole enterprise, the religion, and that could be destroyed and like what are we doing? I thought we built all these post-war systems to prevent outbreak including the EU famously to after World War II to prevent another outbreak of war in the center of Europe. But we’re on the cusp of one and it’s because the people who run those countries are totally played out. They are also tools of the same forces. Their populations are dying in some cases by suicide. The whole project is ending. And so they’ve assumed this kind of nihilistic cast of mind where like they just don’t care. Just don’t care. We’re doing the right thing. It doesn’t matter. And they’ve got a bunch of, you know, girls in charge, basically, who don’t understand violence at all and don’t have any appreciation for its effects or what actual human suffering looks like. And they’re playing a game that’s so reckless. I never thought I would live to see it. But that’s what’s happening.”

The key here is to understand—as Tucker clearly does—that the people who are the key driving force behind both the wars, on Iran and on Russia, are Jewish Nationalists. Tucker uses euphemisms such as “Neocons” or “Israelis”. He tells us that they control all the key people surrounding Trump and he also tells us that Trump’s foreign policy was baked in when this “same dedicated group of people” who had funded Trump’s return to the White House took control of his transition. This dedicated group of people also is the driving force behind European governments, preeminently the UK.

What Tucker is looking at is the European drive toward war on Russia—it’s undisguised and is recognized as such by Russia’s leadership. We see it in the drone and missile offensive on Russia’s energy infrastructure, on the boarding of Russian ships on the high seas.

And Trump appears unable to resist any of this, any more than he was able to resist the disastrous war on Iran. As Doug Macgregor said the other day, “it makes you wonder what ‘they’”—this same dedicated group of people—”have on Trump.” Now, having led the US into a disastrous military defeat in the Middle East, Trump—led by this same dedicated group of people who are fanatically determined to destroy Russia—is proclaiming that he will turn to Russia. This became clear at the G7 meeting last week, and it’s supported by Jewish Nationalist controlled legislators in the US Senate:

Is Trump 2.0’s ‘Escalation’ Strategy Against Russia Starting To Take Shape?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The US is preparing to radically intensify the Ukrainian Conflict over the coming year ...

Trump’s decision to sign the “G7 leaders’ joint statement on geopolitical issues” calling for more arms to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia signaled that he’ll now “escalate to de-escalate” (E2DE) through a “war of attrition” waged by Ukraine. The EU will back this campaign to the hilt and Trump 2.0 will seek to obtain control over Russia’s natural resources companies as its top goal via the coercive selling of shares under pain of continued NATO-backed Ukrainian strikes against associated infrastructure if Putin refuses.

The contours of his administration’s E2DE strategy are now starting to take shape. Nearly two weeks before he signed the above mentioned joint statement, the House passed a bill that would “provid[e] more than $1 billion in security and reconstruction aid. It would make another $8 billion available for Ukraine’s defense through loans.” On the sidelines of the G7 Summit, Trump then said that he’ll soon reimpose oil sanctions against Russia, which would disrupt Putin’s Sino-Indo balancing act.

Around the same time, “A group of US senators has introduced legislation that would amend existing law to allow Ukraine to use assets confiscated from the Central Bank of Russia and other Russian sovereign assets to purchase military equipment.” All of this coincided with reports that the Senate also introduced language into the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) calling for continued intelligence support to Ukraine across all of next year to aid its quest to reconquer its lost land (and possibly more).

… the writing is on the wall and it reads that Trump 2.0 is preparing to radically intensify the Ukrainian Conflict.

Specifically, its E2DE strategy is expected to closely follow what the Wall Street Journal outlined last fall and which was analyzed here at the time, namely helping Ukraine surpass Russia’s drone capabilities, more secondary sanctions, and provoking unrest inside of Russia. To that end, the House and Senate initiatives will bolster Ukraine’s strike capabilities (including long-range missile ones), while Trump’s sanctions threat will deal with the second part. This combination might lead to unrest inside of Russia.

…

Looking forward, the groundwork is rapidly being established for Trump 2.0 to make next year all about Russia, and the Democrats’ possible recapture of Congress or at least one of its chambers after November’s midterms could facilitate this. If Russia doesn’t achieve its goals before that happens or cut a reasonably fair deal by that time, then there’ll be no realistic chance of any such deal till 2029 at the earliest, thus meaning that only victory or defeat would be possible before that date. The clock is ticking.

With the world economy facing an unprecedented crisis due to both the war on Russia and, especially, the war on Iran, this is madness. Putin clearly sees what’s coming—how could he not?—and is preparing. Just as he saw what was coming in 2021 and took preemptive steps in February 2022, it would be madness to suppose that Russia will not seek to preempt all this. Thus, as we see threats from the West being directed at Belarus,

Spetsnaℤ 007 @Alex_Oloyede2

2h

Something important is being discussed between Russia and Belarus. We could be looking at the total decimation of Kiev.

The Other Side Media @TheOtherSideRu

Putin and Lukashenko’s talks stretch into a second day

The meeting is completely closed, even to the press

Not a single photo has been released so far — highly unusual for the two leaders

It’s worth noting that Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missiles are among the weapons stationed in Belarus.

Here’s something else to bear in mind. China surely understands that the ultimate target in this Anglo-Zionist war on the world is China. Every aggressive military and economic war move that Trump makes and supports via proxies reinforces Chinese concerns and resolve. China has countered every attempt by Trump to bring China into submission and is also taking active measures to protect its financial system and extend its global reach, to resist US sanctions. China has solidified its regional hegemonic position in East Asia and is now squeezing Japan via China’s rare earth weapon—no doubt with the full understanding of the dire consequences facing the US economy if Japan is forced to begin selling its treasury bond holdings as a result. US attempts to intercede on Japan’s behalf have had no effect on China’s resolve. China isn’t interested in war, but faced with an existential threat they may take kinetic action to complement their economic moves. The US is utterly unprepared for that—in effect, a three front war:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

Jun 26

Yes, China would inflict far, FAR worse damage against US bases.

The war with Iran revealed to everyone what several of us have been saying for years: indomitable US military supremacy is and long has been a myth. The balance of powers in the world has been radically altered.

Tom Shugart @tshugart3

If you think this is bad, the PLA Rocket Force could likely do far, far worse.

I wouldn’t count on using any known, fixed facilities west of Hawaii (or maybe even there).

And yet Trump continues down the path of war—the path that he claimed he’d avoid, but which his Jewish Nationalist controllers insist upon.

This won’t end well.

BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Military Strikes Missile and Drone Sites in Iran

U.S. Central Command called the attacks a “powerful response” to an Iranian drone strike on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.

Over the last few days we’ve been paying some attention to the perilous economic and fiscal state the US finds itself in, in no small part due to Trump’s disastrous military adventures. The strike at Iran today will only ensure that the energy (and resource) crisis will deepen, even as disaster looms only weeks ahead—as Trump himself admitted when he was forced to sign the MOU on Iran’s terms. We also took a look at the AI race with China, citing former Google CEO, Eric Schmidt. Sean Foo addresses most of these issues today, while also emphasizing the key role that Japan plays in all this—something few Americans think about. Don’t worry about the details, just focus on the Big Picture—especially how the war on Iran has made everything worse. All this comes as Trump continues to fruitlessly jawbone the American public about the “hot” country they live in:

Nasty: Japan TRIGGERS US Financial Crash as China Export CUT Gets Lethal

So the US is very afraid of the state of the stock market right now. Normally the worry would be for the economy, but to Trump the stock market is the economy--and those numbers simply cannot fall. Trump is still in massive denial. He was claiming that the stock market was at an all-time high when it was crashing down at exactly the same time.

Trump: “America’s 250th year is set for an economic boom the likes of which no nation has ever seen before. No nation has ever been in the place that we are right now.”

Now, this stock market sell-off isn’t some random coincidence or temporary blip. It’s the entire semiconductor and AI bubble beginning to unravel in real time. Asian stocks got hit hard.

Korea’s chip heavy index crashed by 10% in a single session. The NASDAQ followed with a 2.2% decline. The question everyone is asking right now is simple. Is this the Big One?

Now, oil prices have dropped below $80 a barrel, which sounds like relief. But the impact of months of elevated energy prices has already bled deeply into the inflation data and is now threatening rate hikes that could collapse literally everything. Big banks are now projecting the Fed will hike rates in September.

In other words, before the midterm elections.

That is an enormous acceleration from previous expectations. People were all saying that hikes will only happen in mid 2027. So markets are aggressively repricing to account for this new and very clear danger. Rates simply cannot keep climbing without stocks reacting. The entire AI boom market was built on one core assumption--that Big Tech would keep spending endlessly and that the US consumer would remain rock solid throughout. Neither of those assumptions holds if higher rates start squeezing borrowing capacity across the board. Even if we somehow survive 2026 without a hike, the probability of hikes in 2027 remains very elevated. By April next year, the odds of at least one rate hike sits at 90%. The odds of two or more hikes exceeds 60%. So rates could hit 4.5% or higher within the next 12 months regardless of what happens with the Iran deal.

This is why the markets are cracking. Yesterday’s 2% loss was nothing if investors really decide to turn tail and run. The amount of embedded risk in the current system is absolutely staggering. Retail investors have gone all in on leveraged tech and semiconductor funds. They are betting very, very big.

Over $40 billion is sitting in leveraged funds, betting on US tech companies to go up. Now for [chips?] specifically, over $30 billion is concentrated in 3x leverage funds. That means a 33% decline doesn’t just hurt these investors--it completely wipes them out and forces mass liquidations. That’s going to accelerate the crash even further. So if the floor falls from here, there’s a very long way down. The leveraged longs are going to get squeezed. A 10% plunge translates to 30% pain for those positions. When all the forced selling starts, it just feeds on itself.

There simply cannot be any more pressure added to the US right now. The stock market is effectively controlling the US economy, as bizarre as that sounds. But the bond market controls both the stock market and the economy sitting underneath it. And that’s precisely why Scott Bessent had to get on the phone with Japan to prevent a complete implosion.

He’s trying to contain a currency crisis that was directly caused by Trump’s war on Iran. Bessent is basically the cleanup crew desperately trying to stop Japan from triggering a collapse of the dollar and US bonds simultaneously. It looks like Bessent has decided to allow Japan to intervene by selling US dollars to rescue the yen. Now this is a very dangerous gamble, but there isn’t much of a choice left. If the yen keeps collapsing, Japan will eventually hit the full panic button, and the consequences for US bond markets will be really, really dire.

Despite Japan blowing through 75 billion of intervention in May, hiking interest rates just last week, absolutely everything has failed. The yen is sitting well above 160 to the dollar. We are at the weakest level for the yen since 1986. Import cost remains under heavy pressure and Japanese industries are becoming very, very uncompetitive.

Japan is trapped in a waiting game that’s going very badly. Energy prices remain elevated. The Fed is now preparing to hike rates. So the Japanese have to act and they have to act soon, before something breaks forever. Japan’s finance minister Katayama has just confirmed that Bessent has given his blessing for “bold action,” and that means a combination of currency intervention and potentially more rate hikes coming from Tokyo.

Taking “bold action” is always a bad sign in these situations. It means all the usual levers aren’t responding.

What the US fears most is Japan dumping their $1.2 trillion in US bond holdings onto the market. Japan’s holdings did increase by nearly 20 billion from March to April, but they’re still down 30 billion from February levels. Bessent absolutely cannot afford for Japan to start selling now, especially when US short-term rates are already moving up higher. The 2-year Treasury yield has already hit its highest level since February 2025. The short end of the curve is pricing-in the coming rate hikes. If Japan starts selling long-term treasury holdings on top of that, it could trigger a violent repricing across the entire long end of the curve as well. And that’s the scenario Bessent is losing sleep over.

The main fear driving every decision in Washington right now is directly connected to the AI data center buildout. That single spending wave is what’s holding up both the US economy and the US stock market at the same time. It represents nearly 2% of the entire US GDP. It’s why global investors poured money into US stocks in the first place.

In 2027, US hyperscalers are collectively planning to spend $1 trillion on AI capital expenditure alone. That’s nearly 10 times China’s planned AI spending. But those plans only work if rates stay stable enough to borrow money affordably. Markets have already priced in that trillion dollar buildout. So, if it slows or stops valuations, they’re going to collapse fast. Now, Bessent himself is deeply afraid of China getting ahead in AI.

He understands the US needs to keep spending aggressively. It’s partly to prop up GDP, for sure, but stock valuations as well. The biggest strategic fear is genuinely about China winning the AI race outright. Because if the Chinese win, they will 100%, 1,000% export affordable AI solutions globally. US tech companies will lose their pricing power and, critically, those Chinese AI chips and solutions are going to be sold in yuan, in RMB, rather than in dollars. So de-dollarization is going to accelerate throughout the tech sector itself. The dollar loses yet another structural pillar of global demand.

Recall that just yesterday we saw Bessent’s expressed concern to maintain “dollar dominance”. It’s existential for the Anglo-Zionist Empire. And Eric Schmidt also expressed alarm at China’s open source model for AI. This is serious for the Anglo-Zionists.

Even the former CEO of Google [Eric Schmidt] has admitted publicly that China is not years behind AI. China is months behind, at the most, and the buildout cannot afford to stop or even slow down at any point. Every quarter of delay really narrows the gap even further. And it’s not just about building the data centers themselves. It’s about powering them. There’s going to be a 45 giga-watt power shortfall coming by 2028. And through 2030, the US will need to add 72 giga-watts of new power generation capacity, specifically just for AI data centers. That’s equivalent to building dozens of large power plants in just a few years. The US needs cheap money to make all of this physically and financially possible.

But here’s the brutal Catch 22 that the administration is now trapped inside. Japan also cannot afford a weak yen or for their own interest rates to explode higher. These two requirements are really in direct conflict. Japan is planning to unleash a 370 trillion yen investment program to build out their own domestic chip sector. That’s over $2 trillion in committed spending. And to fund this and prevent their currency from collapsing further, Japan might need to sell dollars. But if Japan calibrates that selling wrongly, it’s going to break the US bond market at the exact moment the US really needs it to be stable.

Now, the Iran deal is still hanging on a very thin thread. There are significant unresolved differences, and that’s dangerous for US bonds and the markets. It’s not just about nuclear material disposal. Even the question of Hormuz tolls has become a really serious sticking point in negotiations. The inflation threat from the energy crisis is genuinely not over.

Q: Would you block a final Iran deal if you include any kind of fees on shipping American?

Trump: No, it would, it would be unacceptable to me, cuz we have numerous straits and if you did that for them, you’d have to do it for other people. You have other straits. I wouldn’t allow it there either. Yeah, it would it would be a game changer.

But Japan’s problems don’t end with the Iran deal uncertainty. China is actively throttling Japan’s industries at the exact same time. And Beijing is not going to let Japan advance smoothly in their chip ambitions without extracting maximum concessions. And the [geopolitical] tensions between China and Japan have not been resolved yet--not by a long shot. So, China has cut off critical mineral exports to Japan with devastating effect.

In fact the US recently appealed to China to relent in re Japan—to zero effect. Japan threatening military confrontation with China over Taiwan was not exactly a smart move.

Tungsten is used in automotive manufacturing, ytrium and terbium are used in high performance magnets. And, since January, those vital exports from China have crashed to near zero. Japan is now being forced to drain existing stockpiles and really scramble around for alternative suppliers. Finding those alternatives is not easy and it’s not going to be fast. It could take months. It could even take years. Now the CEO of Sumitomo, one of Japan’s most important industrial companies, just admitted the obvious to the world. He has just become Captain Obvious: “If Japan gets shut out by China [for Critical Minerals], it’s definitely going to cause severe problems for Japanese manufacturing” because the G7 simply cannot replace China’s rare earth supply chain overnight--or even over several years.

Japan’s dependence on China for specific materials really remains extreme. And we are talking about 60% dependency for rare earth elements like scandium and up to 90% dependency for certain rare earth oxides. If China turns off those taps, Japanese industries won’t stop immediately. But they’ll drain their stock piles first. And once those stock piles are exhausted, production lines are going to start shutting down. At the very least, prices for every product containing these materials are going to spike. Now there are still some elements flowing from China to Japan--and that includes latanium and cerium. But China could always cut those off, too, at any moment--and deliver yet another body blow to Japan’s manufacturing industry.

Everything in this confrontation ultimately comes down to leverage and dependence. So who kind of needs whom more? Japan’s trade with China represents approximately 20% of the entire Japanese economy, while China’s trade with Japan is only 5% of China’s economy. And that compares to China’s smaller and declining share of trade with the US [9.1%]. Japan’s prime minister is going to face enormous pressure to concede to China’s’ demands sooner rather than later. The economic math really makes that outcome inevitable.

Now the geopolitical chess game is going to get more complicated with every passing week, and the US is acutely aware of just how financially vulnerable their position is--especially with the midterms approaching. This is exactly why Bessent is working so hard to hold everything together right now. Calling Japan, managing the bond markets, trying to keep the Iran deal alive--doing everything possible to buy time before the economic pressure becomes impossible to contain. While Trump is still out there trying to hype everything up, claiming all-time highs while the markets are crashing and the level of denial is just staggering.

Trump: “We have the hottest country anywhere in the world. We’re the most powerful. We’re the smartest. We’re the most respected. Two years ago, we were a laughingstock all over the world. We had a terrible group of people representing us. Every leader, I just left G7, every leader--and we had a lot of people in addition to G7, as you know--everyone said what we’ve done in a year and a half is a miracle. We have the hottest country in the world and we want to keep it that way. We have more factories being built right now.”

And the economy is really hanging on the edge right now, regardless of what he’s saying.

Chris Martenson @chrismartenson

18h

Our markets have basically become signaling devices used by the power structure to tell the world that the world approves of what they’re doing.

There are many of us who believe there was an invisible hand helping the stock market go higher, and the oil price go lower.

MUST WATCH 2 MINUTE VIDEO

Long form version. Both the short and long forms explain the juggling act. You’re part of the act, but it’s hidden from you and you get no say in being part of it:

Here’s Why Iran Got Everything It Asked For

Trump suddenly caved in to Iran, and the reason is that he was finally informed by someone that just a few more weeks of the Strait being closed would result in a massive global economic catastrophe. Whew!

Here’s how former Soros lieutenant Bessent explains that all wars are bankers wars, wars to make the world safe for Anglo-Zionist financial domination. Of course, what Bessent is telling us is that he has four balls in the air simultaneously and indefinitely. This is accomplished by stopping the BRICS breakout—which is led by China. China must be brought back into subjection to Anglo-Zionism. The key to keeping all those balls in the air is getting Iran to agree to settle in dollars. Don’t count on that. Behind the super confident rhetoric of Trump and Bessent lies danger. The Chinese keep buying gold. They understand the juggling game, and my bet is they’ve explained it to Tehran, just in case the Iranians were in any doubt.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

20h

Bessent just said on CNBC that the dollar invoicing of oil was a factor in Venezuela, Iran, and Ukraine/Russia policy decisions.

Such wrongthink was previously considered solely the purview of “conspiracy theorists.”

Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47

@SecScottBessent: “Dollar dominance is essential, and everything @POTUS is doing here — if you look, the new Venezuela... the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade... We’re seeing in the Iranian negotiations, the Iranians will be invoicing in dollars. Everything we are doing is pushing the dollar back... we’re reinforcing it.”

Economists are noticing some really weird stuff going on, which ties back in to Chris Martenson’s observations:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

Oil inventories and prices have very high negative correlation. In the last few days that correlation has flipped to being positive. We are now supposed to believe that as inventories empty, oil prices go down. Clown world.

HFI Research @HFI_Research

10h

Oil prices are falling with inventories!

Logic!

This is key to the US debt situation—or so it seems to me:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

It is now extremely obvious that the goal of the oil price manipulation is to try to drive US borrowing yields down as much as possible.

Meanwhile, while all this juggling is going on, Bessent is laying out the goal: resource dominance. Because even bankers understand that the system ultimately rests on something other than just paper. He calls it “economic statecraft.” If you think that’s a recipe for more war, you’re on to something, because dollar dominance doesn’t flow naturally from American self sufficiency. If it did, well, Venezuela, Iran, Russia …

Bessent lays out 5 principles guiding Trump admin’s approach to economic statecraft

In Chinese fashion we could name Bessent’s plan for continued Anglo-Zionist world domination as The Five Dominants. Make no mistake about this, it means subjugation for the rest of the world. This is emphatically not simply getting a “fair deal” from all the supposed “cheaters” out there in the world. It’s about getting them to pay off our debts and surrender control over their own economies to us.

• Supply chain dominance

• Dominance over the terms of trade

• Dominant control over intellectual property

• Maintaining USD dominance of finance

• Dominate the little people, lest they become restive

War is usually good for bankers, and sometimes it’s absolutely necessary. This should help explain all Trump’s MOU maneuvering.

This morning we focused on Russia, with the help of explanatory examples from the Iranian context. In many examples we saw that Trump’s risk taking not uncommonly backfires in serious ways. That has been pre-eminently true in his serial wars on Iran, and the media now features multiple video clips per day of Trump lying in the most outrageous fashion in his efforts to evade the consequences of the MOU he signed. What’s apparent is that the lies are simply part of his non-stop campaign to gaslight the American public—both the electorate as well as the financial markets.

This afternoon let’s focus on Iran a bit more. The risk taking is very obvious, but there are other questions that arise. For example, just the other day Doug Macgregor once again maintained that Trump is “under pressure” from Jewish Nationalists. While that could mean financial pressure, in the context I think the more likely explanation is outright blackmail. Political contributions alone would be unlikely to explain the level of risk taking that we’re seeing. The level of non-stop and very obvious lying has attracted quite a bit of attention from serious analysts. Many of them tend to laugh at it, but others see something more serious behind it.

So, let’s go.

Brandon Weichert offers a lucid view of why the war powers resolution in the Senate actually matters, despite self serving motivations behind it:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

13h

Here’s why the Senate War Powers vote is important: the four [GOP] senators who put the vote over the finish line were essentially swing votes. These are not strongly ideological people. They usually are much more sensitive to shifts in power and perceptions of where the power either is or moving toward. They voted the way they did because they correctly surmise that Trump has basically lost what the Chinese would have called the “Mandate of Heaven.” This is the start of the end for him.

That loss of a mandate is clearly reflected in Trump’s disastrous polling. The disastrous drop occurred pretty quickly after his inauguration when it apparent that Trump was going to be pursuing an agenda that differed substantially from the platform he ran on, and which could lead to hard times for ordinary Americans—the core of his voting support.

Weichert then attaches a pretty eye opening lie from Trump, butt typical enough in its brazenness. Note that Trump accuses the GOP senators of actual treason, citing the constitutional definition—for no other reason than that they acted on their constitutional responsibility and criticized Trump’s own usurpation of constitutional authority for the most consequential of government actions, making war. That’s pretty wild, to put it mildly:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

13h

It’s all coming apart for Trump.

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

17h

Trump erupts at the four Republican senators (Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Bill Cassidy) who joined Democrats to pass a War Powers resolution, accusing them of giving “aid and comfort” to Iran:

Professor Pape focuses on the phenomenon of Trump’s lying, in a similar context. Pape links to a video of Jeremy Scahill on Breaking Points. Unfortunately, I couldn’t come up with the Youtube version, so do follow the link to the ~9 minute video. It begins with the host offering his views on how Trump seems to get away with his outrageous lying—such as the Trumpian claim about the use of Iran’s money to send livestock feed for Iranians to eat. He emphasizes the complicitness of a tame media, the low information level of the American public—although the polling data suggests that’s not so much the case. Then Scahill weighs in on the specifically Iranian perspective:

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

9h

A brilliant discussion on why Iran won’t cooperate with Trump’s lies about the MOU

“Iran won and they don’t have to”

Trump is being forced to own the “L” and Iran won’t let Americans forget it

Can Trump accept Iran’s nuclear program if no deal at Day 60?

Here’s an excerpt of some of Scahill’s observations:

Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill:

“Trump is in catastrophically bad narrative trouble because the Iranians won’t throw him a single bone. They will not go along with any of his lies, and it’s causing panic on Trump’s part...

I think the Iranians see him as the president who cried wolf. No one believes him anymore.

Iran feels it doesn’t need to play Trump’s game. The negotiations will proceed on terms Iran believes are fair.

They’re not demanding something outrageous. They’re offering a parallel track to resolve the highly enriched uranium issue and have said they’re open to down-blending it.

What they’re saying is: we’ve put fair terms on the table, and we’re not going to let you bully us, and we’re not going to help you lie to the world.”

DO LISTEN TO THE REST. Scahill maintains, through his extensive contacts in Iran, that the Iranians view Trump in two ways. First, he’s a gangster using business cover—he always wants “a bit on the side for himself” and his cronies/co-conspirators. But the second way is this:

What Donald Trump is used to, particularly in this term--and he gets it all the time from the leaders in the Arab states in the Persian Gulf--is, he likes to be ‘fluffed up’ by all of these leaders praising him. … The Iranians won’t give him that. They just won’t. … [Even though] prior to the war regional mediators were encouraging the Iranians to ‘throw bones in there for Trump.’

Whoa! Does that suggest something that goes in a different direction that risk taking? Like, ‘I’ve got the power and I’ll “bomb the shit” out of anyone who doesn’t kiss me ass—at least a bit?’ Or, at least, I’ll do it if I think I can get away with it?

Let’s turn to Danny Davis, talking with Larry Johnson this afternoon. This is a very interesting ~45 minute discussion. DD starts it off with this tongue in cheek summary of most of Trump’s lies:

The oil is gushing. We have won. And Iran had to sign a surrender document.

But then they get serious. LJ and DD go into all the complexities of two very important topics:

• The difficulties involved in getting the oil production infrastructure up and running again—contrary to Trump’s gaslighting to the effect that everything is back to normal; and

• The logistical and organizational complexities of maintaining and handling the deployments of US military assets and units—again, contrary to Trump’s view that all that is just background to make him look important and powerful.

All that is really good, but then DD tells us that he’s done an interview with Tucker Carlson that will air tomorrow, and he gives us a sneak summary of part of what Tucker had to say. Now, you’ll notice that after hearing what Tucker said, LJ suggests that Trump’s behavior is that of an inveterate gambler. It’s true that that could be the behavior of an inveterate gambler, but you have to wonder whether the rejection of all informed advice might not be behavior that’s closer to what Mac described the other day—the behavior of someone who’s being blackmailed and is being coerced into ignoring good advice. Hey, YMMV, you decide, whatever. One way or another it’s pretty disturbing.

19:3519 minutes, 35 seconds ... DD: We did an interview today with Tucker Carlson and we’re going to be showing that on our show here tomorrow. He talks about a whole number of different topics here. But one of the things he said which to me was most alarming--not just in how the war started but how we might get to an end, especially given the issues you just mentioned that there are real consequences to us economically, not just the least of which militarily, if we should ever restart this war or go back into it.

Rationally speaking one should never go to that point. We should never do that because it would only harm us. We can’t make anything change militarily. But Tucker told us that he had talked to President Trump eight times in the weeks leading up to the war. The last one was on the 27th of February, the night before the attack. He said he hadn’t talked to him since, because he didn’t want to talk to him. He said that Trump was aware of all these things--things that you and I have heard and and talked [about] with Joe Kent, who said that President Trump was told by the military, ‘We can’t accomplish this, taking out the Ayatollah is not going to cause them to fall apart, they’re going to close the Strait of Hormuz.’ He knew all of that. He knew the cost, and yet he went and did it anyway. So I worry that now in this situation we may again come to a situation where it would be irrational for him to do so, but he may. That’s the one thing that really worries me.

LJ: Yeah. No, you can’t rule that out. We always like to believe that there’s a sane, rational, cost benefit analysis going on.

DD: Cuz there’s supposed to be!

LJ: This is more like a degenerate gambler in a casino. ‘I can feel it in my bones!’ All you got to do is roll those dice one more time ....

22:2422 minutes, 24 seconds DD: President Trump has just said something about somehow the Iranian side giving in, that oil just broke the $70 number.

Truimp [flanked by three US senators]: Who would have thought that was going to happen--and that’s during a war! And Iran is being very nice. They’re agreeing to everything that I want--and they have to, otherwise we just go back and do what we have to do. Thank you very much.

LJ: It’s complete horse manure!

And then they go back to serious discussion.

• First and most importantly, Trump and the US are providing both targeting intel for Ukrainian attacks on Russia as well as planning, all facilitated by US boots on the ground; and

• Second, the missiles that the Euros are providing to Ukraine also rely on US tech for their manufacture.

Thus, in a very real sense—which is fully understood by the Russians—the war on Russia via a proxy Ukraine remains very much an Anglo-Zionist project. That front has never closed down, although US involvement may not be as visible as it was in past years. On the other hand the other front—the war on Iran—was probably never really intended by Trump as a new front in the same sense. It was supposed to be a quickie weekend regime change strike that would provide a very important economic advantage in the war on BRICS—very much including Russia. Instead, the quickie weekend war has developed into the current endless war on the global economy, with major blowback against Trump’s America both economically and politically—a real new front. It may be useful to review where this all came from.

The origins for these wars must be seen to lie in Jewish Nationalist control over the global policy of the Anglo-Zionist Empire, centered in the US and its Anglophone Five Eyes allies as well as in major Euro countries. The goal was basically twofold:

• To subject the Russian treasure house of natural resources to Anglo-Zionist exploitation, and

• To maintain China in a subordinate economic position as the sweatshop to the world—the Anglo-Zionist world.

The spirit behind this policy drive was sharpened by the hold held Jewish Nationalist desire for revenge against Russia for Russia’s past Jewish policies. From this standpoint, Kissinger’s opening to China—isolating the then USSR—can be seen as a phase in that long term goal. With a future pivot foreseen in the use of a defeated Russia against China.

While the fall of the USSR and the eastward expansion of NATO—including the war on Serbia—offered the promise for realizing that long term goal. However, two developments hampered that drive, which showed such promise during the Yeltsin years:

• The first was the gradual warming of relations between the new Russian Federation and China. This was not an entirely smooth process, but gained momentum with the realization—under Putin in Russia and with the rise of Xi Jinping—that the Anglo-Zionist led West had malign intentions for targeting Eurasia for subjection. This included Putin’s moves to redevelop Russia’s military capabilities and China’s refusal to accept a subordinate role to America.

• The second development was the institution of BRICS (2012), which provided an institutional form for resistance to the Anglo-Zionist Empire.

That brings us up to the 2016 election between Hillary and Trump. Both candidates had close ties to the Jewish Nationalist power centers, but Hillary represented a more familiar figure for the war on Russia—her previous “reset” rhetoric regarding Russia could be accepted for the ploy it was, whereas Trump’s rhetoric of cooperation and peace was greeted with distrust. In fact, however, Trump’s Russia policy differed little in substance. His initial meeting with Putin, to form a common front against China, was rebuffed. Trump quickly pivoted to a policy of pressuring Putin with a massive military buildup of Ukraine. As Trump has bragged from then up to the present—truthfully—he provided Ukraine with vastly more powerful offensive weaponry than any previous president. This policy truly set the ground for the war on Russia that began under Biden.

Now, Trump has also claimed that the war on Russia never would have begun if he had been re-elected in 2020. However, in my view, this claim must be viewed skeptically. First of all, the war would probably never have begun but for Trump’s transformation of Ukraine into a real military threat on Russia’s border. Secondly, we need to take into account Trump’s real penchant for risk taking and, specifically, for applying “pressure” via actual military actions. The military buildup in Ukraine speaks for itself—flying in the face of multiple Russian warnings. I was also struck, this morning, by Scott Ritter’s account of an incident involving Iran during Trump 1.0. This was the 2019 Iranian shootdown of a US drone. Exactly what happened with Trump’s decision not to retaliate is still disputed. Ritter’s version—which is confirmed by Trump’s initial bellicose rhetoric—is that Trump was fully on board with Bolton and Pompeo in planning a massive airborne retaliatory strike. According to Ritter, Trump was only talked out of this by the active pushback by the US military, which warned of the difficulties and possible consequences. In a sense, this fits in with Trump’s recent braggadocious account of how he “pulled the trigger” on Soleimani. Ritter ties that past history into the current wars, as also Brandon Weichert did yesterday.

In Trump 2.0 Trump has been surrounded by aggressive Jewish Nationalist advisers (or advisers under their control). This quickly led to extremely dangerous initiatives. Weichert cited the May, 2025, attempt to assassinate Putin by attacking his helicopter—something Weichert claims could only have occurred with the assistance of US targeting. This was also linked to the attack on Putin’s “dacha” following a phone call by Trump to Putin, which attempted to keep Putin “in place” while the attack occurred. Ritter also emphasizes the role of this new set of advisers and of a subservient military establishment. Seen from this perspective, the idea of Trump the “peace president” is transformed, as we see his impulsive, gambling, risk taking decapitation strikes on Iran—including sneak attacks under the cover of negotiations. Thus, what we may be seeing in Trump 2.0 is not so much a “new” Trump as one who is unbound—no longer receiving pushback to his risk taking from strong and responsible advisers and military leaders.

In recent days there has been a drumbeat of commentary which maintains that Trump is actually encouraging Zelensky to “pressure” Putin with ever bolder attacks on Russia. This would fit in perfectly with Trump’s now apparent “negotiating” or “deal making” techniques, which relies on deception and pressure tactics. This is even turning up in news media accounts:

Military Summary @MilitarySummary

4h

 The United States provided  Ukraine with intelligence for strikes on targets deep inside Russia, including the Moscow Oil Refinery.

 Financial Times. According to the report, Kyiv’s Western allies urged Washington to continue sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

 According to analysts, the Moscow Oil Refinery—which supplies approximately 30–35% of Moscow’s fuel demand—is unlikely to resume full operations this year. The facility may remain partially or completely out of service for at least six months.

 Reuters

At the recent G7 meeting Trump was reportedly pressed by the Euros to expand the strikes on Russia. Is it possible that “fake news” claims that Putin’s resolve is faltering are intended to convince the risk taking Trump that one more push, one more exertion of pressure will topple the obdurate Putin?

Chay Bowes @BowesChay

5h

Grotesque misinformation from @SkyNews President Putin has never, ever said this. This is remarkable misleading. The Kremlin has consistently said (since 2022) its “Ready for a Peace talks”

Vladimir Putin has never once said what is here portrayed as a quote.

Simplicius today analyzes these claims. He concludes that there is plausibility to the claims of Trump green lighting Ukraine’s recent bold strikes on Russia. It all falls in with Trump’s MO as described above, especially with his penchant for applying pressure. Simplicius also cites Trump’s need to come up with a big win heading toward the midterms, as well as Trump’s own statement that he would be turning toward Ukraine again. On the other hand, he argues that Russia has multiple means to respond effectively, without expanding the war into Europe:

Ukrainian Sources Claim Latest Surge in Attacks on Russia Was “Encouraged” by Trump

Amidst the latest surge in Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russia, the Kiev Independent outlet released an interesting ‘bombshell’ claiming a “senior Ukrainian official” revealed to them that Trump had privately given Zelensky the greenlight to act “more boldly” against Russia, which we’re meant to presume has been responsible for the latest round of escalations.

Ukraine now believes it has secured White House backing for a campaign aimed at forcing Russia into meaningful negotiations, the Kyiv Independent has learned.

U.S. President Donald Trump privately told President Volodymyr Zelensky to act “more boldly,” a senior Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent.

The message comes as Kyiv intensifies efforts to secure a meeting between Zelensky and Putin — an idea Trump has endorsed but one the Kremlin continues to avoid.

“Trump says he doesn’t really believe (Vladimir) Putin will do anything without pressure,” the official, briefed on the recent Trump-Zelensky meeting, added.

It is interesting for the reason that it is plausible: Trump has clearly been frustrated by his inability to settle any of the conflicts he had promised easily zip up. And recently, on the heels of the Iranian memorandum saga, he even admitted that he would now be “turning his attention” back on Ukraine. As such, it’s believable that Trump would have given secret encouragement for Ukraine to “shape the battlefield” in order to “soften” Russia up ahead of any new attempts by the Trump administration to arm-twist the Russians into concessions.

It’s plausible that Trump believes by exacting heavy “costs” on Russia will create favorable conditions for Putin to negotiate and compromise during whatever next round of attempts that Trump’s stooges (Rubio, Lutnick, Witkoff, etc.) have planned; as the above states, Trump reportedly doesn’t believe Putin will do anything without “pressure”.

But if this is the case, then Trump badly misunderstands the Russian temperament and general change of sentiment that has occurred in the post-Anchorage era, wherein several top Russian officials—from Lavrov to Ushakov—have openly nailed shut the coffin of the so-called ‘Spirit of Anchorage’.

Also, it should be stated that this latest “bombshell” can just as easily be a fake psyop meant to give Ukraine legitimacy in its latest actions—the false impression that the “might” of the US is backing Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign.

But the problem with Simplicius’ somewhat optimistic assessment is that, over the years of this war, we have seen a constant escalation from the Anglo-Zionists. Simplicius appears to be relying on the assumption that there will not be further escalation. But what happens if there IS further escalation? In fact that’s exactly what the primary Euro countries, especially the UK, are promising. Dangerous times ahead. Putin has openly stated that Europe and America are escalating against Russia. We know that he will respond to that escalation.

One last dynamic worth noting. While the economic consequences of the war on Iran has led to political pushback from Congress, there appears to be little but support for continued aggression against Russia. In other words, Trump may find it easier to escalate against Russia than Iran.

Here’s a great photo to ease us into the alternate universe of life in the Anglo-Zionist Empire:

The General @GeneralMCNews

22h

BREAKING: Retired U.S. generals, admirals, intelligence officials, diplomats, and former government officials who advise policymakers on the Middle East met with Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.

Yeah, like, who’s in charge of America? Does this give you a clue? But, as UK readers will, hopefully, be well aware, it’s as bad or even worse. Some guy named Burnham is going to replace Starmer and his top priority is to do a quick trip to Israel. It used to be that a Brit PM couldn’t wait to fly to DC for a photo op.

How Secret Pro-Israel Money Flooded the Labour Party and Ended with a Ban of Hasan Piker and Cenk Uygur

Meanwhile, Trump continues to gaslight normal Americans—to little actual effect. As we documented yesterday (Good News - Bad News Monday), the polls show that Americans aren’t fooled by Trump’s shtick. They know that this war is a disaster, that America lost, that Trump is trying to exit with some shred of dignity—no, I misspeak. He’s trying to exit while fooling most of the people at least this time.

The stuff Trump and his flunkies, like Vance, say literally defies belief. Nobody believes it. I mean, do you believe that Iran is going to allow IAEA (i.e., Mossad and CIA spies) to inspect their nuclear sites, as Trump/Vance claim—but Iran has denied for months? Look, it was those inspections that allowed Mossad/CIA to ID top Iranian scientists for later assassination, and Iran is going to fall for that again? I don’t think so. Or how about this one? Trump saying today that he may have to “finish the job,” which, he says, could be done “in about a week.” It’s so insulting to anyone with an IQ above room temperature.

Other claims are just daft, like the one in which Trump claims that Iran is supposed to spend the money we stole and are now returning to buy American “corn and soybeans” to feed its population. Does Trump even realize that he’s talking about livestock feed?

Iran Observer @IranObserver0

13h

BREAKING

Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejects the idea of Purchasing U.S. Agricultural products with frozen funds:

“We find it interesting that the goal of the war, which was announced as the destruction of Iranian civilization, has been reduced to enriching American farmers

Iran’s frozen funds are accessible so that Iran can freely use them as needed”

And it goes on an on, especially the nonsense about how there’s now a “gusher” of oil leaving the Persian Gulf:

Chris Martenson @chrismartenson

I’ve been warning for months that this was going to be one of the biggest economic catastrophes in history. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for months, oil prices should have gone a lot higher than they did. Because they didn’t, the world drew down its stockpiles to dangerously low levels. The US simply had no good options left, so it had to make a deal, even if Iran got nearly all of their demands.

Everything you’re hearing from the White House is simply theater to get you to believe that the US has some control over Hormuz or over Jewish Nationalists. Little Marco is even dragging out the tired lie that Hormuz is “international waters”—it isn’t:

The real reality is that Iran controls Hormuz and nothing Trump or his flunkies say can change that hard fact: Iran holds the important cards and Trump needs to get out of this disaster. Trump and Vance trying to pull a fast one on the American people—the Iranians aren’t fooled. For a pretty cogent presentation of this, John Mearsheimer: Trump LOST, Iran Gets Spoils With Sanctions Relief. But another hard reality is, as noted above, that Americans aren’t fooled by Trump’s BS. Congress seems to be trying to internalize that reality, while not straying to far from the orders they receive from Jewish Nationalists. Thus …

Senate Passes Resolution Directing Trump to End Hostilities With Iran

Rebuke comes a week after the president signed framework with Tehran

WASHINGTON—The Senate voted to limit President Trump’s ability to conduct military operations against Iran without congressional authorization after four Republicans joined with Democrats in a stinging rebuke to Trump a week after he signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran.

The resolution passed by the Senate Tuesday afternoon, in a 50-48 vote, directs the president to remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran unless explicitly authorized by Congress, other than to defend America, an ally or partner from “imminent attack.” The resolution, previously passed by the House, is nonbinding but marks the first time both chambers of Congress have passed the same measure to curb Trump’s power to wage the war against Iran.

Obviously Congress is positioning itself to blame Trump, when they could and should have nipped it in the bud by performing their constitutional war making authority. Nevertheless, it stands as a warning to Trump that he stands now in opposition to Congress as well as the will of We the People—at least as measured in the polls.

Now, what I’d like to do is go through some of the points that Danny Davis and Doug Macgregor discussed today. As you’ll see from the title, Mac is again making an argument that I’ve been making for months:

Col Douglas Macgregor: Pressure to REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE Growing

Actually, Mac—having recently argued that Trump needs to see this fiasco through—is now saying that he’d like to see Trump removed or sidelined via the threat of the 25th Amendment. But, he adds, he thinks it’s more likely to happen via impeachment. That is part of the significance of the Senate war resolution vote today. It’s a very real warning to Trump that he could be neutered or even removed if his screwups continue. There’s a mess in the economy ahead of us, and Congress needs someone to blame. Americans know that the war is to blame, so Congress is eyeing the possibility of shifting blame away from their own fecklessness.

Anyway.

It’s interesting that Trump won the plaudits of conservatives the first time around because he was credited with exposing the reality of the Deep State. Well, he’s done something of the sort all over again, only this time he has revealed the full reality of Jewish Nationalist control over the American government as well as the very real limits to American power projection capabilities. Of course, Trump 1.0 contributed mightily to setting the stage for this by Trump’s arming of Ukraine for war on Russia, as well as his machinations in the Middle East—including the assassination of Soleimani. All those preps have borne fruit—sour, rotten fruit. And just to show how difficult it has become to keep up with all the ramifications of what Trump has wrought, understand that China is coming out of this greatly empowered—and Trump doesn’t seem quite full aware of this:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

Jun 22

Be advised: China’s successful live demonstration of their DF-17 hypersonic weapon as well as their successful orbital mission of the Shenlong unmanned spaceplane (which launched a smaller, secondary object into orbit) is a decisive demonstration of what I’ve been warning about.

China has flipped the military balance in the Western Pacific in their favor. Deterrence will not work anymore. The Chinese have broken out of the encirclement. Trump’s abject strategic failure in Iran has expedited this shift toward Chinese military supremacy in the Western Pacific.

The US military lacks any known defense against these systems and lacks its own version of the DF-17.

Washington has led us to the slaughter strategically.

Led us to the slaughter. Here’s how Mac puts it:

There was nothing we could seize that would make any difference to the ultimate outcome and ultimately if you’re going to ask us seize the Persian Gulf control of it that’s not going to happen. They they’ve mastered capabilities that make that an impossibility but nobody stood up and said it. So I think what we have to understand now is that they made a decision to go ahead and use the military power. It has not worked. We have lost the conflict against Iran. End of discussion. Period. That’s the truth.

Having stated that, Mac makes an interesting pivot that runs directly against what I’ve been saying, i.e., that there’s no military solution. Mac says that there IS a military solution. That solution is to simply get the hell out. Remember Vietnam, Afghanistan? All of this should have been anticipated, but it wasn’t. Now it’s time to bug out.

The real problem is, of course, that while a cut and run could be successfully executed, the global supply chains have been disrupted and even dismantled. The production process itself in the Gulf region has also been disrupted. The return to anything remotely like normal will happen only many months from now, and shifting the responsibility for that will be very, very difficult. And then there’s the AI bubble.

Here’s another problem that Mac brings up. Mac argues that Trump cannot deliver Israeli compliance, despite what Trump claims. Now, it’s true that Israeli is doing a limited withdrawal in Lebanon, but this is not the full withdrawal that the US told Iran it would deliver. Mac states that the only explanation for this is that Jewish Nationalists have something on Trump. Trump is in a box, politically, but the Jewish Nationalists are not about to let him out for free. They paid him good money, and they believe Trump owes them. Not you and me. Them. And yet Trump knows from internal WH polling (Danny says he’s heard this reliably) that the numbers against the war are overwhelming.

The possibility that all these problems could begin to interact is why Mac finally argues that impeachment could come “sooner rather than later.”

In connection with all the above, here are two good videos:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

6h

WATCH THIS.

Owen Shroyer Updates @OwenShroyerHQ

7h

Owen Shroyer discusses how members of Congress are actively working against the interests of the American people by attempting to further entrench the US into a long-term war against Iran on behalf of Israel.

Here’s Mario and Weichert. There’s a bunch of interest in this, but what may interest many readers comes around the 30 minute mark, when Weichert explains how Trump lost him:

BREAKING: TUCKER & MTG ABANDON REPUBLICAN PARTY, TRUMP’S MAGA FALLING APART - w/ Brandon Weichert

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

4h

After talks, Iran’s FM Araghchi said:

“major progress” to end the war in Lebanon

“oil and petrol exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran”

Vance: “Good Foundation”

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

4h

BREAKING: The US has issued Iran a general oil-related license allowing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin oil, petrochemical, and petroleum products through August 21st.

Iranian oil is officially returning to global markets for the first time since 2018.

Javier Blas @JavierBlas

2h

It may only last 60 days (I doubt it; likely would become permanent), but the US Treasury’s waiver is effectively rolling back 40-year plus of American oil sanctions against Iran.

Even US refiners are allowed to import Iranian oil and pay for it in greenback!!!

To go along with this Good/Bad News Monday, the Strait of Hormuz is both Open and Closed. It’s clearly open for Iranian ships loading up at Kharg and heading to China. For other people it’s mostly closed.

Of course, this falls in line with the reality that Trump was totally over a barrel and simply had to accept Iran’s terms. Chris Martenson argues that the pressure that led to Trump’s overnight about face wasn’t simply about oil supplies—bad as that situation is getting. It was also about the effect that the war is having on financial markets:

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

20h

 A tiny dip in debt during 2008 nearly collapsed the entire financial system, and that was barely a flinch.

Economist Chris Martenson says losing Gulf energy would gut every buyer of U.S. debt at once.

“We were hours away from complete meltdown of our system simply because credit markets started to go down a tiny bit instead of up.”

If your biggest customers are drowning, nobody’s left to buy the $10 trillion you need to roll.

.

This war could trigger something much bigger than an energy crisis: a global financial catastrophe.

Economist Chris Martenson broke this down for me, and you’re going to want to hear him out.

Every economy runs on a straight-line relationship with oil. Cut off 25 million barrels a day from the Gulf, and it’s not just gas prices we need to worry about.

“If oil shoots up to where I think it might with continued closure of the strait, it’s lights out for our debt markets.”

He compares it to 2008. Back then, U.S. debt going sideways for just 6 quarters nearly took down the entire financial system.

Multiply that stress now, globally, all at once.

What Martenson is talking about is simply this. The US needs to roll over $10T in debt every year, and that means to a very significant degree selling that debt to foreigners. So ask yourself this. If the price of physical oil remains elevated and countries around the world are spending unexpectedly huge amounts of money on energy—what Martenson refers to as “drowning”, above—exactly who is going to buy all that $10T?

Ending the war definitely looks like Good News to the overwhelming majority of normal Americans, few of whom actually understand the bond markets or the fact that ending the war and opening Hormuz is only the first step in a journey of hundreds of miles—the idea that things will be going back to normal any time soon is wishful thinking. But those same Americans definitely see the Bad News for Trump—they’re not buying the BS that Trump is peddling and they do seem to suspect major bumps in the road ahead as a result of Trumps monumental screwups:

CBS News poll finds Americans want Iran war ended, but few say U.S. got better of agreement

Americans do want the Iran war to end — especially those hardest hit by gas prices — and many see hope for lower prices now.

But an ending now also comes with views that the U.S. effort did not succeed in its strategic or economic interests and has not been worth the costs.

Specifically, most Americans suspect Iran’s nuclear program has not been permanently stopped, and that Iran will not stop threatening its neighbors.

Plenty in the president’s Republican rank-and-file are unconvinced, too.

Nor is the public persuaded that the Trump administration feels goals were met, either; rather, that the administration is mainly looking to end the war.

And so, relatively few Americans think the U.S. is getting the better of the new agreement.

Here are a few of the snapshots that seem relatively independent of propaganda influence:

And there’s lots of Bad News in this specifically for Trump’s standing even among his base. Basically, most Americans don’t think Trump had a clue about what he was getting us into:

Here’s another funny one. Remember this, just last week?

Trump thanks China’s Xi, Russia’s Putin for being ‘neutral’ in Iran war

Is Trump prepping for a post presidential career as a standup comic, in the event of impeachment? I dunno, but if he thought that bit of groveling would get Xi to somehow overlook the tariffs, the attempted shakedown, the arrogant threats, the wars on friends of China, the arming of Taiwan, and all the rest … well, he got a wakeup call this morning:

China hits back at US sanctions on tech giants, restricting its exports to American defense firms

BEIJING (AP) — China on Monday announced sanctions on 10 American military-related companies in response to a recent U.S. move that bars some leading Chinese tech companies from defense contracts.

The Commerce Ministry said that Chinese companies would be blocked from exporting “dual-use” items to the 10 companies, which include military drone makers and some involved in rare earth mining. …

…

Separately, the Finance Ministry said that government entities would be prohibited from buying products from 46 American companies including multiple units of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and General Dynamics. A brief statement did not give any reason for the prohibition.

…

In Monday’s announcement, the ministry said that companies or individuals in third countries are prohibited from transferring dual-use items from China to the sanctioned American firms. It also said that Chinese companies could apply for export approval for goods that are “genuinely necessary.”

The 10 companies are AVEOX in Simi Valley, California; Red Cat Holdings and Teal Drones, both in South Salt Lake, Utah; IMSAR in Springville, Utah; Jaia Robotics in Bristol, Rhode Island; Ball Aerospace & Technologies in Broomfield, Colorado; Oshkosh Defense in Oshkosh, Wisconsin; L3Harris Maritime Services in Norfolk, Virginia; MP Materials in Las Vegas; and USA Rare Earth in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Whatever the actual impact of the back and forth sanctions/blocked lists, China is clearly signaling that it simply won’t accept US sanctions without proportional retaliation. Geopolitics is getting a lot more complicated with the rise of multiple poles of power and influence.

What’s becoming clear since we wrote Latest On Hormuz: I’ll Take A Stab At It is that Trump is engaged in a sort of bait and switch strategy in the negotiations with Iran. Here’s the nub of that speculation:

Here’s my cautious stab at explaining what’s going on. We’ll find out soon enough. [And we’re finding out today]

The fundamentals that forced Trump to drop his song and dance delaying tactics and accede to the MOU remain fully in force—and will for the indefinite future. However, having signed on to the MOU, Trump is now launching a new song and dance ploy in which he attempts to nibble at the edges of the MOU to try to alter it in practice, thus changing the facts on the ground, despite the actual terms. Thus, he’s trying to maintain some degree of US control over traffic through Hormuz—to try to keep some skin in that game. In Lebanon Trump claims to control Israel—and Israel continues its attacks. But now we hear that maybe Israel will cease fire but will remain in situ. That looks like Trump trying to placate his Jewish Nationalist funders by trying to change the MOU—in its practical application—from respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty to a ceasefire in place.

If this speculative stab is correct, then the Trump ploy rests upon the supposition that Iran needs the MOU’s reopening of oil flow and revenue badly enough to turn a blind eye to some violations of the MOU. Iran is signaling that they won’t play that game. The ball is back in Trump’s court.

Thus, today Trump is resorting to his typical tactic of over the top threats to try to get concessions from Iran. We’ll get to the threats (and a h/t to commenter Nutmeg) in a moment, but let’s work up to that through the two focal points I cited yesterday: Trump’s need to maintain some degree of apparent control in Hormuz and to move Iran off its demand that Israel withdraw from Lebanon.

With regard to Hormuz, Centcom is attempting to maintain the illusion that the strait is open and that ships are moving through the strait with US military assistance.

TAMPA, Fla. — Commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased June 20 as U.S. forces continued operating in the general area to support freedom of navigation.

Iran, on the other hand, has closed the strait.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

11h

 CLAIM: “Strait of Hormuz is Open & Iran does not control it.”

 TRUTH: The Strait was closed last night, by Iran, due to US-Israeli violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

Strait of Hormuz is closed.

Only small cargo vessels are using Omani waters. [That’s the US approved route.]

A Greek-owned Bulk Carrier is crossing the Strait right now “IOLCOS AMBITION” heading to Bandar Imam Khomenei. [Iranian port]

*That’s the only one visible.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

4h

 Some Merchant Vessels are crossing the Strait of Hormuz right now, all of them Chinese-owned or US-sanctionned, one of them is a Greek-owned Bulk Carrier from Bandar Imam Khomenei.

HFI Research @HFI_Research

3h

Strait of Hormuz is open, only to Iranian-linked vessels.

That activity led to this outburst from Trump:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

4h

JUST IN:Trump has threatened the Iranian officials in Switzerland that they won’t make it back to Iran if they close the Strait of Hormuz while Netanyahu bombs Lebanon, per Fox News

Trump says he spoke with Iranian officials and told them, “You close the Strait of Hormuz and you won’t have a country.”

He also told them, “You won’t even make it back to your f*cking country.”

Despite this claim Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz

.

Trump says “We may take over the strait if we have to. I’ll blow the s**t out of them”, per Fox News

He is trying to take over the strait for months but failed

.

Trey Yingst @TreyYingst

“You close it and you won’t have a country.” President Trump said he told Iranian officials about the Strait of Hormuz.

“You won’t even make it back to your fu*king country.” “We may take over the Strait, if we have to,” Trump said. “If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls.”

Trump added the U.S. could become the “Guardian Angel” of the Strait, and take 20% of the oil.

Trump is also renewing his threat to enlist his favorite ISIS headchopper against Hezbollah:

President Trump to Fox News: Israel is incapable to deal with Hezbollah, I am close to giving this task to Syria because he would do a more precise job

But then he followed that up—after Iran walked out—by dangling another half way offer, to once again try to get Iran to back off the MOU—a partial Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. He’s still trying to get Iran to budge just a little from the MOU’s clear terms. If they budge on this, he figures he can use the same tactics to claw back more of what he wants/needs. The MOU was the bait—in Trump’s mind:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

39m

BREAKING:  The Iranian pressure has succeeded; Trump instructed Netanyahu to order a partial withdrawal from southern Lebanon, per Israel Army Radio

Here’s where I disagree with Megatron. I’d be surprised if Iran backs down on this fundamental issue. In fact, Trump’s own quick backdown confirms to Iran that they’re the ones who hold the high cards. Same goes with Hormuz. The fundamentals haven’t changed. Trump is desperate to get the oil flowing ASAP. Lots of it. In reality, he’s screwed this whole thing up. Nowhere near enough oil will flow to prevent hardship for the world between now and the midterms. The calculation that Iran would settle for the oil money and that Iran is afraid that Trump could paint Iran as the bad guys if they shut Hormuz again blew up in Trump’s face. Still we see 1) Trump’s very real desperation—a word the Supreme Leader recently used and that made Trump CRAZY, and 2) his continued attempt at a bait and switch approach to satisfy his Jewish Nationalist funders.

In the meantime, here’s how the Iranians have been responding.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

4h

The Iranian delegation refused to take part in a planned handshake and joint photo-op with the U.S. delegation in Switzerland

.

Iran’s President confirms that Zero Uranium Enrichment will not be accepted

“Trump’s positions have changed 180 degrees compared to the past. We will not give up the right to Enrich Uranium”

.

BREAKING:  The Iranian negotiating delegation has left the negotiation venue in Switzerland after President Trump’s death threats, that the delegation won’t make it home if they don’t open the strait of Hormuz, per Iranian state media.

.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf responds to Trump’s death threats:

“Do they not realize that if their threats had been effective, they would not have reached today’s state of desperation? We do not take the Americans’ threats seriously.

They would do better to be careful about their statements. Our armed forces are prepared to respond in a different manner.

No matter how much they talk, we are the ones who act.”

Iran says all negotiations with the U.S. will be suspended unless Israel fully withdraws from Lebanon and the conflict

- Tehran warned that continued Israeli operations could prompt a much harsher response and accused Washington of potentially using the talks to buy time for Israel.

- Iran has also formally protested to the U.S. over President Trump’s recent threats and is considering its response. Iranian officials argue that such statements violate Clause 1 of the reported agreement, which commits the U.S. to refrain from threats, and therefore constitute a serious breach of the understanding.

Trump’s problem is that Iran knows what’s in his hand. Again, the fundamentals haven’t changed and won’t change. I don’t believe a return to war or blockade are viable policies.

Sputnik @SputnikInt

1h

Iran announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The strategic waterway has been closed to vessel traffic, citing alleged US breaches of the ceasefire agreement and Israel’s ongoing military operations in southern Lebanon, IRIB reports citing Iran’s Central Headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya.

The command warned this is only the “first step,” signaling further measures if the situation escalates.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

3h

Everyone should see this

IRGC is publicly warning Iran’s foreign minister not to resume talks with US and shut Hormuz

IRGC has all the guns

No wonder Iran not showing up in Switzerland

The war is far from being in the rear view mirror

.

IRGC-affiliated media says ‘no justification’ for US talks, urges Hormuz closure

Remember when Trump sank Iran’s navy? Well, it turns out that Iran has a navy suitable to its needs—and it was never sunk.

What’s going on?

It should be clear that the fundamentals haven’t changed. It remains that there is no military solution for USrael and that that military combo is under serious strain. Of even greater concern, the economic fundamentals continue to worsen:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

37m

This is really quite frightening. We have around 60 days of reserves left and then the economy goes off a cliff. Bigly.

Multiple usually reliable analysts are predicting that active war will restart—examples:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

Jun 17

PREDICTION: The war resumes soon.

Will Schryver @imetatronink

42m

 With the Iranians having now closed the Strait of Hormuz again, it’s looking as if the war will likely resume before the weekend is over.

Prof Pape, of course, keeps shouting: Escalation Trap!

And yet …

MoloMonitor @MoloWarMonitor

3h

Two oil tankers can be seen docked at Kharg Island Terminal, presumably loading crude oil, on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 20/06/2026.

In the waters east of the island around 20 tankers are lining up waiting to load oil.

.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

Iranian Oil Tankers returning from China or other East Asian ports are docked at Kharg Island Terminal, AIS switched on.

That doesn’t look like an expectation of war, and:

Clash Report @clashreport

33m

Netanyahu and Katz ordered the Israeli military to cease fire while remaining in areas under its control in southern Lebanon.

Source: N12

.

JD Vance is expected to travel to Switzerland today as preparations continue for talks with Iran.

Here’s my cautious stab at explaining what’s going on. We’ll find out soon enough.

The fundamentals that forced Trump to drop his song and dance delaying tactics and accede to the MOU remain fully force—and will for the indefinite future. However, having signed on to the MOU, Trump is now launching a new song and dance ploy in which he attempts to nibble at the edges of the MOU to try to alter it in practice, thus changing the facts on the ground, despite the actual terms. Thus, he’s trying to maintain some degree of US control over traffic through Hormuz—to try to keep some skin in that game. In Lebanon Trump claims to control Israel—and Israel continues its attacks. But now we hear that maybe Israel will cease fire but will remain in situ. That looks like Trump trying to placate his Jewish Nationalist funders by trying to change the MOU—in its practical application—from respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty to a ceasefire in place.

If this speculative stab is correct, then the Trump ploy rests upon the supposition that Iran needs the MOU’s reopening of oil flow and revenue badly enough to turn a blind eye to some violations of the MOU. Iran is signaling that they won’t play that game. The ball is back in Trump’s court.