Will Trump's 'Honeymoon' End On Saturday?

This will be another busy day—snow storm coming in soon, medical appointment, major grampa day. Posting may be light.

So, yes, I realize that to speak of a Trump ‘honeymoon’ isn’t really correct, in the traditional sense. Traditionally the presidential ‘honeymoon’ referred to a kind of ceasefire from the MSM. That of course was never in the cards for Trump, and the Dem and judicial war on Trump began almost immediately. The ‘honeymoon’ I’m referring to has to do with Trump’’s own base. Here’s my idea.

Trump is off to a tremendously strong start on the domestic front, which has earned him high marks—not only from his base but from the general population. They like what he’s doing, regardless of the Left’s hysteria. However, his foreign policy rhetoric has not won anything like that level of approval—in fact, his plans for Gaza, which he continues to double down on, are at catastrophically low levels: 13% approval, 47% disapproval. With Trump having reneged on the ceasefire and prisoner release deal—Trump has unilaterally scrapped the staged releases and is now demanding immediate release of all Israeli prisoners by Saturday—Netanyahu is vowing a renewal of genocide as of noon on Saturday. That’s not what the American people want, but that’s what Trump’s self proclaimed “ownership” is bringing: American sponsored genocide. We’ll have to see how this plays out, but signs are that it could be a major disaster and definitively end Trump’s ‘honeymoon.’

Let’s look at what’s going well. The smooth progress of cabinet appointments is certainly one—including Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation today. Remember when they tried to get her to call Snowden a traitor?

This looks good, too—or at least highly interesting:

Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor

BREAKING: Head of JFK task force [Anna Paulina Luna] says there were TWO shooters in assassination, pledges to release MLK and Epstein dossiers

Straw in the wind on the lawfare blowback front:

Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports

@Mark_R_Mitchell

Over three times more people in DC are googling "Criminal Defense Lawyer" than anywhere else in the US!

8:26 PM · Feb 11, 2025

Shipwreckedcrew is reporting this morning that the Dem legal challenges are running into predictable problems. In the past days I’ve provided several presentations by knowledgeable legal guys pointing out the fundamental legal difficulties in trying to maintain that the Civil Service constitutes a Fourth Branch of government. Here’s the latest:

Shipwreckedcrew @shipwreckedcrew

On the USAID case, the Plaintiffs have now filed their Reply to the Govt Opposition.

I've started reading it and my first reaction is "Weak Sauce."

I think they are doomed. They have returned to the "Trump can't dismantled the Agency" when Judge Nichols has already rejected that argument.

He issued a TRO on 2 claims -- harm from being cut-off from threat warning email system when placed on paid leave; and 30 day repatriation requirement when prior USAID practice was as long as 6 months.

Those are the only two grounds to move the TRO to an Injunction, and the Trump Admin has addressed each in the past 4 days as I knew they would.

Plaintiffs also filed a Show Case re Contempt petition claiming that not everyone was restored to email timely in accord with the limited TRO issued -- but when Govt asked for last names so it could confirm and fix any issues, Plaintiffs declined to give last names.

Not the kind of thing you would expect if they were really worried about getting everyone back on email.

Judges notice that stuff.

I'll break down the Reply shortly.

Hearing set for 11:00 am tomorrow.

7:58 AM · Feb 12, 2025

So, IOW, the people challenging DOGE are reduced to repeating arguments that the judge in the case has already rejected—never a good look when you’re coming up before the judge again—and are demonstrating the bad faith that is behind their case. Obviously some of these cases could land in front of the SCOTUS in the near future, but the arguments are so extreme—essentially calling for the overturning of our whole separation of powers in three branches system of government—that Trump’s legal team has to be pleased at that prospect. Further, AG Bondi has hit the ground running, already instituting to reforms to shut down legal abuses by prosecutors—including the practice of overcharging to force plea deals.

On the other hand, Trump’s signature Russia initiative seems to be going nowhere in particular—certainly it hasn’t induced the Russians to conform to Trump’s desired pace. One suspects that the Trump - Putin phone calls—which Russia refuses to confirm—may have been more about the release of the usual American knuckleheads who try to smuggle dope into Russia than about ending our war on Russia. Why do we want these idiots back, anyway? Certainly Russia isn’t slowing down its war efforts:

Massive Overnight Russian Strike On Kiev Used Ballistic Missiles, Over 120 Drones

Russia has confirmed its forces launched major overnight missile strikes on Ukrainian military plants as well as energy infrastructure. Kiev suffered significant damage, resulting in casualties and several fires in the city.

A Wednesday statement by the defense ministry said that Russian forces had carried out a "group missile strike on workshops of Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises producing unmanned aerial vehicles and FPV drones."

"The goals of the strikes have been accomplished, all designated facilities have been hit," it said. The oblasts of Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava [power plant totally taken out], and Chernigov were struck in the widespread assault.

…

The Ukrainian capital appears to have been one of the hardest hit cities in the wave of strikes, which has been a rarity over the last year.

I continue to think a side deal on arms control holds the best promise of a way forward. Trump continues to push the idea that a demand for US clawback of the money it spent in its war on Russia could be a bargaining chip:

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo

 Trump says he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine, as long as the US gets its money back … $500 billion

The US not getting its money back is sure to appear to the Russian’s as an incentive for prosecuting this war to the Polish border—any Ukraine “guarantees” to Trump be damned. The Trump calls—through Hegseth in Brussels today—for an “international peace keeping force” along a ceasefire line is surely a non-starter.

Which brings us to Gaza. Larry Johnson has a good post on this today, but I’ll quote the last part only:

Gaza on the Riviera Going Nowhere

This will be Trump’s war going forward — breaking his promise to his voters not to get the US involved in more wars. Once Israel starts attacking the Palestinians, Hezbollah and the Houthis will renew their attacks on Israel, which will tempt Trump to expand the US role in the conflict. Trump’s honeymoon will be over and the political inroads Trump made with Arab American voters will be demolished.

Trump’s bully tactics appear to be going nowhere—attempting to bully Jordan and Egypt into participating in the ethnic cleansing. Yesterday, even Jordan’s king refused to play along at the White House. Egypt’s Sisi is actually refusing to come to DC for the time being—he’s meeting with other Arab nations, who are united in opposition to the US as never before. Anglo-Zionist attempts to claim that this is all about Iran—which is apparently refusing to meet with Witkoff—has fallen flat among the Sunni states.

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai

If the United States proceeds with an ethnic cleansing policy in Gaza, the entire ME will be plunged into unprecedented chaos and instability. Such an act would shatter regional alliances, escalate conflicts, and provoke widespread resistance, not only from the Palestinian people but from states and non-state actors across the region.

12:50 PM · Feb 11, 2025

Chaos in the Middle East threatens the global economy—or at least the Western economy. If Trump restarts the genocide in Gaza the dynamic of the situation will almost inevitably draw the US in:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

Israel is acutely overextended and substantially depleted.

I am convinced the IDF cannot sustain its presence in Syria while simultaneously being compelled to resume combat operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

And they can only bomb so long as limited US stockpiles last.

8:58 PM · Feb 11, 2025

I don’t see any benefit accruing to America from this, nor to Trump’s political benefit at home or abroad. Why would he do this when things are going so well?